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Positioned for recovery

Ebiquity 26 March 2021 Update
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Ebiquity

Positioned for recovery

Final results

Media

26 March 2021

Price

29.9p

Market cap

£23m

Net bank debt (£m) at 31 December 2020 (excludes £0.75m US PPP debt)

7.8

Shares in issue

78.4m

Free float

94.8%

Code

EBQ

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

14.6

48.0

(9.4)

Rel (local)

14.1

43.7

(26.1)

52-week high/low

33p

18.35p

Business description

Ebiquity is a leading, independent global media consultancy, working for over 70 of the world’s 100 leading brands to optimise their media investments.

Next events

AGM

May 2021

Analyst

Fiona Orford-Williams

+44 (0)20 3077 5739

Ebiquity is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

As indicated at the pre-close update, trading conditions eased for Ebiquity in H220 as advertisers ventured back into the market after a COVID-19 affected first half. The group also gained new business, some following the withdrawal of Accenture from the media assurance market, with momentum continuing into Q121. Demand for Ebiquity’s services should be amplified by the complexity of the market and advertisers’ need to optimise the return on their spend. We expect the increased emphasis on digital capabilities, encapsulated in new KPIs, should help revenues – and profits – recover, which in turn will likely lead to an improved rating.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/19

68.1

4.7

2.9

0.0

10.4

N/A

12/20

55.9

(1.3)

(1.9)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/21e

61.0

2.6

2.5

0.5

12.0

1.7

12/22e

68.3

5.0

4.7

1.3

6.4

4.3

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Positioned for stronger growth

FY20 revenues were 18% down on FY19, recouping some of the first half setback, when revenues were down 24%. This resulted in an FY20 underlying operating loss of £0.3m, with a return to profitability in H220, as indicated in the pre-close update. New business wins and the strengthening of the digital proposition encourage us to edge our FY21 revenue forecast up by £1.0m to £61.0m. Our revised adjusted operating profit estimate of £3.5m (from £4.0m) allows for some increase in costs to support revenue growth. For FY22, we expect faster top line growth, with a full year of business won from Accenture and other new wins, more digital work and the early benefits of the newly articulated objective of increased cross-sales. We expect FY22 revenues to regain FY19 levels and profitability to surpass them.

New business objectives set

With these results, management has set out six new KPIs designed to drive revenues derived from activities in the digital space and that will enable the market to track progress. The group will now operate along geographical lines, rather than by product or service lines, with a global client account management structure that should encourage cross-selling and increase average revenue per client. With the newly reconfigured Digital Innovation Centre, built on Digital Decisions, Ebiquity will be able to offer a more comprehensive and integrated digital media offering.

Valuation: Growing confidence underlines value

With increasing clarity on Ebiquity’s business plan, after Nick Waters’ appointment as CEO in H220, the route to increased scale and profitability is now set. We would expect the large valuation discount to narrow provided execution of that plan progresses. Parity with marketing services peers for FY22 across P/E, EV/EBITDA and EV/EBIT multiples would suggest a value of 89p. This is a big step up from the 54p cited in our last report, reflecting the roll forward of one year on multiples and strong peer share price performances, averaging 45% year-to-date.

Good H220 recovery

The issues around advertising spend as the COVID-19 pandemic developed have been well covered. Ebiquity’s H1 performance was also hit hard, with sectors such as automotive particularly suffering (see our note from September 2020). The scale of the improvement in H2 is shown here by segment.

Exhibit 1: Half by half segment progress

£m

Media

Analytics & Tech

H120

% ch

H220

% ch

FY20

% ch

H120

% ch

H220

% ch

FY20

% ch

Revenue

21.9

-21%

24.1

-8%

46.0

-15%

4.9

-36%

5.0

-23%

9.9

-30%

Op. Profit

2.4

-65%

4.4

-3%

6.8

-40%

-0.7

N/A

0.0

-91%

-0.7

N/A

Op. margin

10.7%

18.3%

14.7%

-14.8%

0.5%

-7.0%

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

As well as the recovery related to an improving trading environment, H220 Media revenues were also boosted by the first accounts won following the withdrawal of Accenture. Media Performance (helping advertisers monitor and assess their agencies’ media buying performance) varied by geography, with some regions more exposed to verticals that struggled more in the pandemic. Media Management, which includes helping advertisers to select agencies and set objectives, was bound to have felt the impact of a reduction in the number of agency reviews conducted in the year. There will undoubtedly be an element of catch-up here in the current year and management reports new engagements picking up in Q121. As reported in our previous reports, the Contract Compliance activity had practical issues being unable to go onto customer premises to conduct audits, with the acceptance of remote electronic audit coming late in the period.

The comparators for Analytics & Tech include an element of Stratigent, which was closed in September 2019. The like-for-like revenue reduction was 21%.

Exhibit 2: Half by half group progress

£m

H120

% ch

H220

% ch

FY20

% ch

Revenue

26.8

-24%

29.1

-11%

55.9

-18%

Op. Profit

1.6

-78%

4.4

-9%

6.1

-50%

Op. margin

6.1%

15.2%

10.9%

Unallocated costs

(3.0)

(3.4)

(6.4)

-3%

Op (loss)/profit

(1.4)

1.0

(0.3)

Source: Ebiquity

Project-related costs were £2.4m lower, boosting net revenue margin to 88% from 87%, with operating costs decreasing at a lower rate than revenues (down by 7%), as staff and property costs were broadly kept in place to position the group to take advantage as activity levels rebuild.

Unallocated costs were £0.2m lower year on year at £6.4m and, as can be seen in the exhibit above, the group returned to profit in the second half of the year.

The accounts contain a number of highlighted items:

£1.9m share-based payment credit from lapsed options granted in 2010.

£1.1m acquired intangible amortisation.

£0.8m goodwill impairment on Australian MarTech business Digital Balance.

£1.5m severance and reorganisation costs as global regional management was reconfigured.

£0.8m currency adjustments on deferred consideration.

£0.2m professional costs regarding acquisitions and bank facility negotiations.

There was also a small restatement of FY19 on accounting treatments in one US unit, reducing revenue by £0.6m, with associated balance sheet adjustments.

Revised covenants in place

Year-end net debt was £7.8m, with the balance sheet also showing US Payroll Protection Programme ‘debt’ of £0.75m. Criteria for the forgiveness of this sum have been met and it is expected to be credited during FY21. The net debt figure includes £19m of gross bank debt drawn down against the £24m RCF facility, the £5m additional since the prior year having been drawn down to cover any COVID-19 related working capital fluctuations. Gross cash and equivalents was £11.1m.

Under revised covenants in place from March 2021, the group is required to have month-end liquidity of £7m (up from £5m), which is clearly comfortably covered. From September 2021, leverage covenants will apply at <4.0x EBITDA, increasing to <4.25x at the year-end and to <4.5x in March 2022, then decreasing. Based on our financial projections shown below, these limits are very comfortable.

New KPIs show priorities

Management has outlined six new key performance indicators (KPIs), although it is not yet disclosing the base level from which progress will be judged. They are:

number of clients buying two or more service lines,

number of clients buying one or more products from the new digital portfolio,

volume of digital advertising monitored – number of impressions,

volume of digital advertising monitored – US$ spend,

number of countries served with new digital product, and

% of revenue from digital services.

Momentum building, shown in new FY22 projections

The current reporting segments are not particularly helpful in describing the business and management is indicating a change to reporting on a geographical basis, which will align with the reconfigured operational structure. We will adjust our modelling once the historical restatements are available.

Exhibit 3: Changes to forecasts

EPS (p)

PBT (£m)

EBITDA (£m)

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

2020

(0.8)

(1.9)

138

(0.5)

(1.3)

130

1.8

1.8

u/c

2021e

2.6

2.5

-4

3.1

2.6

-16

5.4

5.0

-7

2022e

-

4.7

N/A

-

5.0

N/A

-

7.4

N/A

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: 2020 ‘old’ is former estimate; ‘new’ is actual.

Based on the positive indications regarding current trading and new business wins, we have increased our current year revenue forecast from £60.0m to £61.0m. Having held costs steady in FY20, we anticipate some increase in costs to support revenue growth in FY21.

With a full year of these revenue benefits and the first fruits of the shift to more of a platform-based approach, as described in detail in our November note, we currently expect a 12% increase in revenues for FY22 over the prior year, which would match the level achieved in FY19. With more productisation, automation and therefore scalability built into the operations, we also expect a good pick-up in adjusted operating margin, outstripping that achieved in FY19 and with good prospects of further expansion in future periods.

Exhibit 4: Financial summary

£000s

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

31-December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

69,368

68,133

55,907

61,000

68,320

Cost of Sales

(37,600)

(36,212)

(31,219)

(32,940)

(36,893)

Gross Profit

31,768

31,921

24,687

28,060

31,427

EBITDA

 

 

7,761

8,603

1,797

5,015

7,350

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

6,342

5,567

(334)

3,500

5,900

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(1,240)

(1,169)

(1,122)

(1,122)

(1,122)

Highlighted items

(6,233)

(9,044)

(3,325)

0

0

Share-based payments

(223)

(117)

1,906

(150)

(150)

Reported operating profit

(1,354)

(4,763)

(2,875)

2,228

4,628

Net Interest

(1,151)

(898)

(875)

(924)

(917)

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0

0

0

0

0

Forex

0

0

(137)

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

5,191

4,669

(1,346)

2,576

4,983

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(2,504)

(5,661)

(3,887)

1,304

3,711

Reported tax

(1,985)

(1,477)

150

(618)

(1,196)

Profit After Tax (norm)

3,413

2,738

(1,372)

1,958

3,123

Profit After Tax (reported)

(4,489)

(7,138)

(3,737)

686

2,515

Minority interests

(489)

(451)

(186)

(34)

(125)

Discontinued operations

(845)

(1,018)

220

0

0

Net income (normalised)

3,551

2,275

(1,557)

1,926

3,001

Net income (reported)

(5,334)

(8,156)

(3,703)

652

2,390

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

78.6

79.5

81.6

78.2

78.4

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

3.7

2.9

(1.9)

2.5

4.7

EPS - normalised continuing diluted (p)

 

 

3.5

2.8

(1.9)

2.4

4.6

EPS - basic reported (p)

 

 

(7.4)

(10.8)

(4.5)

0.8

3.0

Dividend per share (p)

0.71

0.00

0.00

0.50

1.25

EBITDA Margin (%)

11.2

12.6

3.2

8.2

10.8

Normalised Operating Margin

9.1

8.2

-0.6

5.7

8.6

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

45,400

47,060

44,322

42,899

41,728

Intangible Assets

43,251

35,172

34,698

33,461

32,289

Tangible Assets

1,170

10,902

8,199

8,013

8,014

Tax, receivables, Investments & other

979

986

1,425

1,425

1,425

Current Assets

 

 

65,787

35,074

35,610

37,203

40,898

Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

Debtors

29,260

26,838

24,318

25,904

29,013

Cash & cash equivalents

8,793

8,236

11,121

11,127

11,715

Other

27,734

0

171

171

171

Current Liabilities

 

 

(27,539)

(21,195)

(22,189)

(22,241)

(23,041)

Creditors

(18,150)

(14,659)

(15,986)

(16,541)

(17,340)

Tax and social security

(1,681)

(4,424)

(1,953)

(1,953)

(1,953)

Short term borrowings (incl. positive loan fees)

(2,314)

22

45

45

45

Other incl lease liabilities

(5,394)

(2,134)

(4,295)

(3,792)

(3,793)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(36,282)

(23,047)

(26,997)

(26,997)

(26,997)

Long term borrowings

(33,965)

(13,868)

(19,675)

(19,675)

(19,675)

Other long term liabilities

(2,317)

(9,179)

(7,322)

(7,322)

(7,322)

Net Assets

 

 

47,366

37,892

30,746

30,863

32,589

Minority interests

992

1,179

442

442

442

Shareholders' equity

 

 

46,374

36,713

30,304

30,421

32,147

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

7,761

8,603

1,797

5,015

7,350

Working capital

(367)

(702)

4,171

(1,031)

(2,309)

Exceptional & other

(6,233)

(2,962)

(3,325)

0

0

Tax

(1,952)

(1,345)

(2,285)

(618)

(1,196)

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(791)

3,594

358

3,366

3,845

Capex

(1,784)

(3,235)

(1,316)

(1,500)

(1,499)

Acquisitions/disposals

(858)

23,862

(2,118)

(486)

0

Net interest

(1,068)

(718)

(550)

(924)

(917)

Equity financing

252

253

0

0

0

Dividends

(791)

(1,052)

(444)

(450)

(841)

Other

0

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

(5,040)

22,704

(4,070)

6

587

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

28,840

27,486

5,610

8,509

8,503

FX

(91)

(204)

117

0

0

Other non-cash movements

6,485

(624)

1,055

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

27,486

5,610

8,509

8,503

7,915

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Ebiquity and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Ebiquity. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Ebiquity and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Ebiquity. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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