Basilea Pharmaceutica — Anti-infective refocusing on schedule

Basilea Pharmaceutica (SIX: BSLN)

Last close As at 28/03/2024

CHF37.75

0.25 (0.67%)

Market capitalisation

CHF492m

More on this equity

Research: Healthcare

Basilea Pharmaceutica — Anti-infective refocusing on schedule

Management has provided an update on Basilea’s strategy to refocus the business on anti-infectives, as part of which, the company will cease all oncology activities by end-2022. Basilea now intends to engage in separate transactions for the oncology asset BAL0891 (a dual TTK/PLK1 inhibitor) and other preclinical assets, which will be concluded in H222. In addition, management has confirmed it will not expand the ongoing Phase II biomarker-driven trial investigating the use of lisavanbulin (a tumour checkpoint inhibitor) in treating recurrent glioblastoma. The company continues to explore partnering options for lisavanbulin. Finally, the rights to derazantinib (a pan-fibroblast growth factor receptor inhibitor) will be transferred back to Merck by the end of the year. Management has reiterated guidance that oncology-related expenses will not be material beyond 2022 and sustained profitability will be reached in 2023. In our view, the recent strategic update supports this guidance. We value Basilea Pharmaceutica at CHF847.7m or CHF71.6/share.

Soo Romanoff

Written by

Soo Romanoff

Managing Director - Head of Content, Healthcare

Healthcare

Basilea Pharmaceutica

Anti-infective refocusing on schedule

Strategy update

Pharma and biotech

27 June 2022

Price

CHF35.9

Market cap

CHF467m

Net debt (CHFm) at 31 December 2021

69.3

Shares in issue (excludes 1.1m Treasury shares)

11.8m

Free float

90%

Code

BSLN

Primary exchange

SIX

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

Business description

Basilea is focused on infectious diseases and oncology. Its marketed products are Cresemba (an antifungal) and Zevtera (an anti-MRSA broadspectrum antibiotic). The oncology R&D pipeline consists of three assets including clinical-stage products lisavanbulin and derazantinib.

Analysts

Soo Romanoff

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dr Harry Shrives

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Basilea Pharmaceutica is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Management has provided an update on Basilea’s strategy to refocus the business on anti-infectives, as part of which, the company will cease all oncology activities by end-2022. Basilea now intends to engage in separate transactions for the oncology asset BAL0891 (a dual TTK/PLK1 inhibitor) and other preclinical assets, which will be concluded in H222. In addition, management has confirmed it will not expand the ongoing Phase II biomarker-driven trial investigating the use of lisavanbulin (a tumour checkpoint inhibitor) in treating recurrent glioblastoma. The company continues to explore partnering options for lisavanbulin. Finally, the rights to derazantinib (a pan-fibroblast growth factor receptor inhibitor) will be transferred back to Merck by the end of the year. Management has reiterated guidance that oncology-related expenses will not be material beyond 2022 and sustained profitability will be reached in 2023. In our view, the recent strategic update supports this guidance. We value Basilea Pharmaceutica at CHF847.7m or CHF71.6/share.

Year end

Revenue
(CHFm)

PBT*
(CHFm)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/20

127.6

(29.6)

(288.5)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/21

148.1

(6.6)

(56.9)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/22e

109.5

(30.1)

(254.1)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/23e

128.1

14.0

161.1

0.0

22.3

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Our recent outlook details our valuation method and our rNPV model suggests a value for Basilea Pharmaceutica’s clinical oncology pipeline of CHF14.8 per share (CHF6.6 for derazantinib and CHF8.1 for lisavanbulin) or 20% of our total valuation. We see management's expected completion of separate transaction deals for the preclinical pipeline and BAL0891 as particularly encouraging, as we do not value these assets in our model. The approval of erdafitinib (2019), pemigatinib (2020) and infigratinib (2021) has dramatically altered the fibroblast growth factor receptor- inhibitor landscape in recent years. For this reason, the transferring of derazantinib rights back to Merck is a rational strategic decision from management, in our view.

With the background of recent milestone payments and approvals in China for Cresemba (isavuconazole) and the approaching Phase III readout for Zevtera in Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia, we see the recent strategic update as supporting management’s guidance that sustainable operating profitability will be reached in 2023.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Basilea Pharmaceutica and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Basilea Pharmaceutica. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Basilea Pharmaceutica and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Basilea Pharmaceutica. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

More on Basilea Pharmaceutica

View All

Latest from the Healthcare sector

View All Healthcare content

Research: Healthcare

Vivesto — Turnaround strategy beginning to deliver

Vivesto capped off its 18-month strategic turnaround with reduced Q1 losses and a stated focus on its ‘string of pearls’ strategy to build its oncology pipeline through in-licensing and M&A. In March, it successfully completed a rights issue, generating net proceeds of SEK134.6m, extending its runway into 2024. This is sufficient to cover a number of clinical and commercial inflection points and execute its strategy. Key upcoming catalysts include the planned 2022 UK and German launches of Apealea with partner Inceptua. We have updated our model for clinical timelines and the Q1 results, which resets our valuation to SEK2.24bn (from SEK2.89bn previously). We note that the company will appoint a new CEO following the departure of current CEO Francois Martelet in July.

Continue Reading

Subscribe to Edison

Get access to the very latest content matched to your personal investment style.

Sign up for free