‘A very strong finish to a spectacular year’

Greggs 8 January 2020 Update
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Greggs

‘A very strong finish to a spectacular year’

Q419 trading update

Retail

8 January 2020

Price

2,411p

Market cap

£2,439m

Net cash (£m) at 30 June 2019

85.9

Shares in issue

101.2m

Free float

99.6%

Code

GRG

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

14.8

32.9

77.4

Rel (local)

9.7

24.7

57.2

52-week high/low

2,476p

1,367p

Business description

With 2,050 shops, eight manufacturing and distribution centres and 23,000 employees, Greggs is the leading ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It uses vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices.

Next events

Preliminary results

3 March 2020

Trading update

12 May 2020

Analysts

Russell Pointon

+44 (0)20 3077 5757

Sara Welford

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Greggs is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Greggs finished 2019 with accelerating revenue growth. It continues to benefit from increasing customer growth as the brand strengthens and it takes share in the ‘food-on-the-go’ market. With increased cost pressures, management remains confident of mitigating these through ongoing business efficiencies and select price increases, where possible, and some one-off benefits. Our forecasts, which are at the high end of consensus, are broadly unchanged. Our DCF-based valuation is 2,096p.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/17

960.0

81.8

63.5

32.3

38.0

1.3

12/18

1,029.3

89.8

70.3

35.7

34.3

1.5

12/19e

1,171.6

112.7

87.7

46.4

27.5

1.9

12/20e

1,251.2

119.1

94.4

50.2

25.5

2.1

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Q4 revenue growth accelerated again

The trading update for Q419 indicated an acceleration in revenue growth through the period against comparatives that became tougher. The reported l-f-l revenue growth for Q419 of 8.7%, in company-managed stores, follows 8.3% for the first six weeks of the quarter, and is against a comparative of 5.2% in Q418. The drivers of growth continue to be increased numbers of customers who are attracted to the stores given the product innovations and increased convenience. To celebrate the very strong growth, management has announced a one-off bonus for staff of £7m, c £300 per employee. Given the strong FY19 revenue performance, management expects FY19 underlying profit to be slightly higher than previous expectations.

Outlook for FY20

As expected, management highlights the cost headwinds from the National Living Wage increase from 1 April 2020 and the cost of pork, which has risen significantly and has been a headwind through H219. The National Living Wage increase of 6.2%, mainly for store staff, represents total staff cost inflation of c 4.5% in FY20 versus c 4% in a typical year. Further guidance on the outlook for pork inflation will be given at the preliminary results in March as the market is volatile, making it difficult to fix prices. The company is operating with price visibility of roughly three months versus 4-6 months typically. Management remains confident of mitigating cost inflation through business efficiencies and selective price inflation, as in previous years, as well as c £10m of benefits from costs for initiatives in FY19, including the £7m bonus above, that will not recur or will start to contribute revenue.

Valuation: Forecasts and valuation unchanged

Our profit forecasts for FY19 and FY20, at the high end of consensus, remain broadly unchanged. For FY19, the revenue uplift from the better revenue performance in Q4 is offset by the new bonus. For FY20, we lower our gross margin assumption by 40bp to a decline of 30bp y-o-y, offset by the higher revenue and cost mitigation. Our DCF-based valuation of 2,096p is broadly unchanged.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

£m

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

960.0

1,029.3

1,171.6

1,251.2

Cost of Sales

(348.1)

(373.4)

(414.6)

(447.0)

Gross Profit

611.9

655.9

756.9

804.2

EBITDA

 

 

135.7

145.7

231.5

244.3

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

82.2

89.8

119.5

127.0

Intangible Amortisation

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

(9.9)

(7.2)

(7.0)

(2.2)

Other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Operating Profit

72.3

82.6

112.5

124.8

Net Interest

(0.4)

(0.0)

(6.8)

(7.9)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

81.8

89.8

112.7

119.1

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

71.9

82.6

105.7

116.9

Tax

(16.9)

(18.2)

(23.0)

(22.6)

Profit After Tax (norm)

64.9

71.6

89.7

96.5

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

56.9

65.7

84.0

96.8

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

100.6

100.7

100.7

100.8

EPS - normalised fully diluted (p)

 

 

63.5

70.3

87.7

94.4

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

56.5

65.3

83.4

96.1

Dividend per share (p)

32.3

35.7

46.4

50.2

Gross Margin (%)

63.7

63.7

64.6

64.3

EBITDA Margin (%)

14.1

14.2

19.8

19.5

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

8.6

8.7

10.2

10.1

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

334.7

347.5

661.6

706.1

Intangible Assets

14.7

16.9

18.1

18.7

Tangible Assets

319.2

330.5

643.4

687.2

Investments

0.8

0.2

0.2

0.2

Current Assets

 

 

106.6

140.6

126.0

143.2

Stocks

18.7

20.8

23.0

25.5

Debtors

33.4

31.6

38.5

42.8

Cash

54.5

88.2

64.4

74.8

Other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(127.9)

(145.1)

(203.4)

(207.8)

Creditors

(127.9)

(145.1)

(203.4)

(207.8)

Short term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(14.0)

(13.8)

(237.8)

(257.3)

Long term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other long term liabilities

(14.0)

(13.8)

(237.8)

(257.3)

Net Assets

 

 

299.4

329.2

346.5

384.2

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

134.5

152.2

170.0

179.6

Net Interest

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.0

Tax

(17.6)

(16.1)

(21.7)

(30.9)

Capex

(72.6)

(66.6)

(100.0)

(88.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

2.2

1.7

0.0

0.0

Financing

(6.0)

(4.7)

0.0

0.0

Dividends

(32.2)

(33.1)

(72.1)

(50.3)

Net Cash Flow

8.5

33.7

(23.8)

10.4

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(46.0)

(54.5)

(88.2)

(64.4)

HP finance leases initiated

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.0)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(54.5)

(88.2)

(64.4)

(74.8)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Greggs and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Greggs. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2020. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Greggs and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Greggs. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2020. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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