Greggs

LN: GRG

£1879.5m market cap

1858p last close

With over 1,953 shops, eight manufacturing and distribution centres and 23,000 employees, Greggs is the UK’s leading ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It uses vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices.

Investment summary

Greggs’ substantial progress with the brand transformation, backed by savvy use of social media, helped to deliver robust FY18 results, in spite of weather extremes, and an outstanding start to FY19. Consequently we have upgraded our forecasts three times since late November. The company is highly cash generative and likely to distribute part of the substantial cash balance (FY19e: £92.9m) with the H119 dividend.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (£m)
EBITDA (£m)
PBT (£m)
EPS (p)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2017A 960.0 135.7 81.8 64.5 28.8 13.9
2018A 1029.3 145.7 89.8 71.1 26.1 12.3
2019E 1120.7 214.5 98.8 77.5 24.0 12.3
2020E 1192.9 231.3 107.1 84.8 21.9 11.4
Last updated on 19/03/2019
Industry outlook

Greggs enjoys an expanding market. The Project Café2017UK report (Allegra World Coffee portal) valued the UK coffee shop market in 2016 at £8.9bn, +12% y-o-y, with branded outlets accounting for £3.7bn. Allegra estimates it could reach £16bn by 2025. In August 2018 Costa was sold to Coca-Cola for 16.4x EBITDA. The squeezed consumer is a potential concern, although Greggs is well placed for the value switch after widespread refurbishments and extended customer options as it moves to widen its market.

Last updated on 19/03/2019
Sector
Consumer
Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net cash (£m) 92.9
Forecast gearing ratio (%) N/A
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual 4.3 46.0 55.4
Relative* 2.2 34.4 50.9
52-week high/low 1858.0p/942.0p
*% relative to local index
Key management
Roger Whiteside CEO
Richard Hutton FD

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