Currency in GBP
Last close As at 28/03/2023
GBP0.15
▲ 0.38 (2.52%)
Market capitalisation
GBP322m
Research: Metals & Mining
Pan African Resources (PAF) has announced that it is to acquire 100% of Mogale Gold and Mintails SA Soweto Cluster from Mintails’ liquidator for ZAR50.0m (US$3.2m). Combined, the two assets host a mineral resource of 243Mt (in tailings), containing 2.36Moz gold. As such, consideration equates to US$1.31 per oz of contained gold cf an average valuation of US$9.88/oz for London-listed pre-production gold assets (see Gold stars and black holes, published in January 2019). Closure of the deal is subject to the usual due diligence, including the evaluation the assets’ amenability to retreatment.
Pan African Resources |
Entailed |
Mogale and Mintails acquisition |
Metals & mining |
17 November 2020 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Pan African Resources is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
Pan African Resources (PAF) has announced that it is to acquire 100% of Mogale Gold and Mintails SA Soweto Cluster from Mintails’ liquidator for ZAR50.0m (US$3.2m). Combined, the two assets host a mineral resource of 243Mt (in tailings), containing 2.36Moz gold. As such, consideration equates to US$1.31 per oz of contained gold cf an average valuation of US$9.88/oz for London-listed pre-production gold assets (see Gold stars and black holes, published in January 2019). Closure of the deal is subject to the usual due diligence, including the evaluation the assets’ amenability to retreatment.
Year end |
Revenue (US$m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
06/19 |
218.8 |
37.1 |
1.64 |
0.15 |
18.1 |
0.5 |
06/20 |
274.1 |
80.8 |
3.78 |
0.84 |
7.8 |
2.8 |
06/21e |
307.9 |
129.5 |
6.42 |
1.36 |
4.6 |
4.6 |
06/22e |
316.0 |
142.1 |
6.42 |
1.20 |
4.6 |
4.0 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items. Note: Our estimates have changed only marginally as a result of the proposed Mogale/Mintails transaction to reflect capex in FY21 and net interest in FY22.
Perhaps a second Elikhulu (also tailings retreatment)
Mintails’ and Mogale’s aggregate resource of 2.36Moz compares favourably to Elikhulu’s original resource of 1.7Moz and its initial reserve of 1.5Moz, but at a fractionally higher grade of 0.30g/t (cf Elikhulu’s 0.29g/t). PAF announced the results of an independent definitive feasibility study (DFS) on Elikhulu on 5 December 2016, which demonstrated an NPV9 of US$75.9m (or, then, 5.0cps, or US$40.95 per resource oz) at a gold price of US$1,180/oz and a forex rate of ZAR14.50/US$. At the time, Edison estimated Elikhulu to be worth US$69.9m (or 4.6cps) at a 10% discount rate and to be capable of adding 1.33p to EPS in the first eight years of its operation (albeit there are now 28.0% more shares in issue). Now however, with capex having been expended (but with not all associated debt repaid), we estimate a valuation for Elikhulu of US$286.5m, or 14.9cps, or US$151.32 per initial resource oz or US$184.08 per remaining resource oz. As such, PAF has acquired for US$1.31/oz an asset that might be worth US$9.88/oz, could be worth US$40.95/oz (pre-production) and may be worth US$159.33/oz (post-debt repayment – albeit after c US$71/oz in initial capex).
Valuation: Steady at 40.48cps plus Mintails/Mogale
For the moment, we have left our absolute valuation of PAF unchanged at 40.48c (31.31p) per share based on its four main currently producing assets plus Egoli. To this must then be added the value of c 19.2m underground Witwatersrand ounces which we estimate could lie anywhere in the range of 0.22–5.24c per share, depending on market conditions and the value of Mintails/Mogale as discussed above. As an alternative means of valuation, if PAF’s historical average price to normalised EPS ratio of 9.1x in the period FY10–20 is applied to our FY21 forecasts, then it implies a share price potentially as high as 45p in the current financial year. In the meantime, on the basis of its FY20 dividend, PAF is among the top 20 yielding precious metals companies globally. Based on our forecasts, we believe that this could improve to within the top 10 in FY21.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
US$'000s |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021e |
2022e |
||
Year end 30 June |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
145,829 |
218,818 |
274,107 |
307,883 |
316,019 |
Cost of sales |
(107,140) |
(152,980) |
(158,457) |
(152,913) |
(146,967) |
||
Gross profit |
38,689 |
65,838 |
115,650 |
154,969 |
169,052 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
38,131 |
65,484 |
115,176 |
153,552 |
164,506 |
Operating profit (before GW and except.) |
31,506 |
49,256 |
93,673 |
134,555 |
143,589 |
||
Intangible amortisation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
(16,521) |
10,596 |
(28,593) |
(8,905) |
(1,618) |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating profit |
14,985 |
59,852 |
65,079 |
125,649 |
141,971 |
||
Net interest |
(2,222) |
(12,192) |
(12,881) |
(5,015) |
(1,483) |
||
Profit before tax (norm) |
|
|
29,284 |
37,064 |
80,791 |
129,540 |
142,106 |
Profit before tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
12,763 |
47,660 |
52,198 |
120,635 |
140,488 |
Tax |
2,826 |
(8,174) |
(7,905) |
(5,709) |
(18,338) |
||
Profit after tax (norm) |
32,110 |
28,890 |
72,887 |
123,831 |
123,768 |
||
Profit after tax (FRS 3) |
15,589 |
39,486 |
44,293 |
114,926 |
122,149 |
||
Average number of shares outstanding (m) |
1,809.7 |
1,928.3 |
1,928.3 |
1,928.3 |
1,928.3 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
1.31 |
1.64 |
3.78 |
6.42 |
6.42 |
EPS - FRS 3 (c) |
|
|
0.87 |
2.05 |
2.30 |
5.96 |
6.33 |
Dividend per share (c) |
0.00 |
0.15 |
0.84 |
1.36 |
1.20 |
||
Gross margin (%) |
26.5 |
30.1 |
42.2 |
50.3 |
53.5 |
||
EBITDA margin (%) |
26.1 |
29.9 |
42.0 |
49.9 |
52.1 |
||
Operating margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
21.6 |
22.5 |
34.2 |
43.7 |
45.4 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed assets |
|
|
315,279 |
361,529 |
314,968 |
354,533 |
387,383 |
Intangible assets |
56,899 |
49,372 |
43,466 |
45,710 |
47,955 |
||
Tangible assets |
254,247 |
305,355 |
270,286 |
307,606 |
338,211 |
||
Investments |
4,134 |
6,802 |
1,216 |
1,216 |
1,216 |
||
Current assets |
|
|
29,009 |
31,601 |
53,648 |
106,239 |
129,286 |
Stocks |
4,310 |
6,323 |
7,626 |
10,271 |
10,543 |
||
Debtors |
22,577 |
18,048 |
11,245 |
21,948 |
22,530 |
||
Cash |
922 |
5,341 |
33,530 |
72,773 |
94,966 |
||
Current liabilities |
|
|
(44,395) |
(63,855) |
(78,722) |
(82,076) |
(37,799) |
Creditors |
(37,968) |
(39,707) |
(62,806) |
(66,160) |
(61,883) |
||
Short-term borrowings |
(6,426) |
(24,148) |
(15,916) |
(15,916) |
24,084 |
||
Long-term liabilities |
|
|
(152,906) |
(145,693) |
(106,276) |
(106,385) |
(107,573) |
Long-term borrowings |
(112,827) |
(109,618) |
(73,333) |
(73,333) |
(73,333) |
||
Other long-term liabilities |
(40,078) |
(36,076) |
(32,943) |
(33,052) |
(34,241) |
||
Net assets |
|
|
146,988 |
183,582 |
183,620 |
272,311 |
371,296 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating cash flow |
|
|
5,345 |
59,822 |
73,399 |
127,119 |
160,828 |
Net Interest |
(6,076) |
(14,685) |
(10,834) |
(5,015) |
(1,483) |
||
Tax |
(1,634) |
(4,497) |
(5,804) |
(5,600) |
(17,150) |
||
Capex |
(127,279) |
(52,261) |
(30,849) |
(58,561) |
(53,767) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
6,319 |
466 |
207 |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
11,944 |
(0) |
0 |
(0) |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(11,030) |
(2,933) |
(2,933) |
(18,700) |
(26,235) |
||
Net cash flow |
(122,411) |
(14,088) |
23,186 |
39,244 |
62,193 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
3,138 |
118,332 |
128,424 |
55,719 |
16,475 |
Exchange rate movements |
(619) |
537 |
1,663 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
7,836 |
3,459 |
47,856 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
118,332 |
128,424 |
55,719 |
16,475 |
(45,717) |
Source: Company sources, Edison Investment Research.
|
|
Research: Investment Companies
Baker Steel Resources Trust (BSRT) recorded a solid 10.8% NAV total return in the 12 months ended 30 October 2020, assisted by the progress of several projects and its precious metals exposure. Looking ahead, potential positive NAV triggers for Q420 and Q121 relate in particular to BSRT’s three major projects (Bilboes, Tungsten West and Futura), which made up 45% of its NAV at end October 2020. On the other hand, the recently published pre-feasibility study (PFS) on the Prognoz mine assumes lower annual output than the preliminary economic assessment (PEA). However, this should be partially offset by a lower discount rate applied in the valuation due to the move to PFS, as well as the current favourable silver price.
Get access to the very latest content matched to your personal investment style.