OPAP — Short-term challenges in Q323

OPAP (ASE: OPAP)

Last close As at 20/06/2024

EUR14.72

−0.03 (−0.20%)

Market capitalisation

EUR5,448m

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Research: Consumer

OPAP — Short-term challenges in Q323

OPAP’s Q323 results were negatively affected by industry-wide influences in sports betting, a tough comparative for Lotteries, and one-off natural events, which have led to a minor, c 3%, tweaking to management’s prior FY23 EBITDA guidance. From an operational perspective, the new iLottery platform is building awareness and growing revenue, and player activity increased on the OPAP Store app, while the retail offer continues to evolve.

Russell Pointon

Written by

Russell Pointon

Director of Content, Consumer and Media

Consumer

OPAP

Short-term challenges in Q323

Q323 results

Travel and leisure

24 November 2023

Price

€14.58

Market cap

€5,353m

Net cash (€m) at 30 September 2023 (including IFRS 16 liabilities and excluding investments)

89.4

Shares in issue

367.1m

Free float

49.8%

Code

OPAP

Primary exchange

ASE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(3.3)

(3.8)

12.7

Rel (local)

(9.9)

(1.2)

(19.0)

52-week high/low

€16.84

€12.90

Business description

OPAP is the exclusive licensed operator of all numerical lotteries, sports betting, instant & passives, VLTs and horse racing in Greece. It is investing organically and has undertaken M&A to grow its online presence. Allwyn has a 50.2% stake and significant board representation.

Next events

FY23 results

March 2024

Analysts

Russell Pointon

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Milo Bussell

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

OPAP is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

OPAP’s Q323 results were negatively affected by industry-wide influences in sports betting, a tough comparative for Lotteries, and one-off natural events, which have led to a minor, c 3%, tweaking to management’s prior FY23 EBITDA guidance. From an operational perspective, the new iLottery platform is building awareness and growing revenue, and player activity increased on the OPAP Store app, while the retail offer continues to evolve.

Year end

GGR*
(€m)

EBITDA**
(€m)

EPS**
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/21

1,538.8

551.2

0.82

1.50

17.7

10.3

12/22

1,939.0

722.6

1.23

1.45

11.8

9.9

12/23e

2,059.3

720.7

1.18

1.49

12.3

10.2

12/24e

2,164.4

753.4

1.26

1.28

11.6

8.8

12/25e

2,229.5

773.2

1.32

1.34

11.0

9.2

Note: *GGR, gross gaming revenue. **EBITDA and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Some weakness in Q323

OPAP’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) declined by c 4% y-o-y to c €481m as online growth of c 3% was held back by: 1) weakness in sports betting (online and retail) due to unusually high industry-wide payouts and fewer games as result of changes to the football season in the prior year to accommodate the FIFA World Cup in December 2022; 2) a challenging comparative period and low jackpots in the current period for Lotteries; and 3) disruption to trading in locations in central Greece due to floods and fires. The lower revenue and underlying increases in all operating cost lines translated to a 13% decline in underlying EBITDA to c €170m. A fine of c €25m for alleged breaches of competition rules for the provision of bill payment and mobile top-up services between 2017 and 2021, which the company is appealing, further reduced reported EBITDA to c €145m, a 26% y-o-y decline from c €198m in Q322. OPAP moved to a net cash position by the period end as the receipt of proceeds for the sale of Betano further boosted free cash generation.

EBITDA guidance reduced by c 3%

Our new FY23 EBITDA estimate of c €721m (from €754m) compares with management’s new ‘recurring EBITDA’ (ie excluding the €25m fine) guidance for FY23 of €720–740m, a €20m or c 3% reduction from prior guidance of €740-760m. Our new estimate implies a c 9% y-o-y decline in recurring EBITDA in Q423. Management noted that weakness in sports betting continued in October followed by some normalisation through November, which will therefore affect Q423 results. However, we believe that reversion of the football season to its more typical schedule against an easier comparative from Q422 should be helpful.

Valuation: Appealing upside to DCF, high yield

Our DCF-based valuation has increased from €17.9/share to €18.5/share, with the impact of lower earnings estimates offset by OPAP’s improved financial position.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

€m

2020

2021

2022

2023e

2024e

2025e

Year end 31 December

ISA

ISA

ISA

ISA

ISA

ISA

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

1,129.8

1,538.8

1,939.0

2,059.3

2,164.4

2,229.5

NGR

 

 

737.3

1,043.9

1,333.4

1,420.1

1,493.1

1,538.2

Cost of Sales

(672.7)

(883.7)

(1,082.8)

(1,179.3)

(1,237.2)

(1,273.6)

Gross Profit

457.1

655.2

856.2

880.0

927.2

955.9

Other Income

42.5

217.4

230.2

238.6

241.6

243.2

EBITDA

 

 

263.9

551.2

722.6

720.7

753.4

773.2

Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.)

 

 

147.2

408.6

591.2

592.6

625.4

645.2

Impairments

(36.8)

(4.7)

(20.2)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

121.2

(0.5)

179.9

(25.5)

0.0

0.0

Share-based payments

0.0

(2.2)

(2.3)

(2.6)

(2.7)

(2.7)

Reported operating profit

231.6

401.3

748.6

564.5

622.7

642.4

Net Interest

(33.5)

(43.6)

(40.1)

(7.3)

(4.3)

(0.3)

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

18.3

(0.4)

14.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

132.0

364.6

565.9

585.3

621.0

644.8

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

216.4

357.3

723.3

557.2

618.4

642.1

Reported tax

(17.3)

(96.4)

(127.2)

(143.4)

(152.2)

(158.0)

Profit After Tax (norm)

100.3

284.4

441.4

441.9

468.9

486.9

Profit After Tax (reported)

199.1

260.9

596.0

413.8

466.2

484.1

Minority interests

6.1

(1.4)

(3.7)

(10.8)

(11.8)

(12.6)

Net income (normalised)

106.4

282.9

437.7

432.1

459.1

477.3

Net income (reported)

205.2

259.4

592.3

403.0

454.4

471.6

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

334

344

354

366

364

361

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

31.83

82.28

123.48

118.14

125.97

132.33

EPS - normalised fully diluted (c)

 

 

31.83

82.28

123.48

118.14

125.97

132.33

EPS - basic reported (€)

 

 

0.61

0.75

1.67

1.10

1.25

1.31

Dividend (€)

0.55

1.50

1.45

1.49

1.28

1.34

Revenue growth (%)

(30.3)

36.2

26.0

6.2

5.1

3.0

Gross Margin (%)

40.5

42.6

44.2

42.7

42.8

42.9

EBITDA Margin (%)

23.4

35.8

37.3

35.0

34.8

34.7

Normalised Operating Margin

13.0

26.6

30.5

28.8

28.9

28.9

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

1,806.4

1,695.0

1,553.2

1,426.5

1,320.8

1,215.0

Intangible Assets

1,578.9

1,476.0

1,364.0

1,277.1

1,190.1

1,103.1

Tangible Assets

127.5

105.6

88.9

70.1

51.4

32.6

Investments & other

100.0

113.4

100.3

79.3

79.3

79.3

Current Assets

 

 

629.1

1,007.5

1,018.0

793.7

689.0

552.8

Stocks

6.2

4.7

5.6

5.9

6.2

6.4

Debtors

68.5

90.9

102.1

108.5

114.0

117.4

Cash & cash equivalents

506.9

860.4

724.4

623.4

512.8

373.1

Other

47.6

51.6

185.9

55.9

55.9

55.9

Current Liabilities

 

 

(366.1)

(571.5)

(808.6)

(853.4)

(865.0)

(872.2)

Creditors

(149.4)

(168.2)

(181.7)

(226.5)

(238.1)

(245.2)

Tax and social security

(27.8)

(60.7)

(117.2)

(117.2)

(117.2)

(117.2)

Short term borrowings

(40.7)

(62.5)

(289.5)

(289.5)

(289.5)

(289.5)

Other

(148.2)

(280.2)

(220.2)

(220.2)

(220.2)

(220.2)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(1,286.7)

(1,181.7)

(676.4)

(530.3)

(571.8)

(369.5)

Long term borrowings

(1,057.9)

(1,035.2)

(546.0)

(381.6)

(371.6)

(111.6)

Other long term liabilities

(228.8)

(146.5)

(130.4)

(148.7)

(200.2)

(257.9)

Net Assets

 

 

782.7

949.4

1,086.3

836.5

572.9

526.2

Minority interests

(41.1)

(38.5)

(32.7)

(33.7)

(34.7)

(35.7)

Shareholders' equity

 

 

741.6

910.9

1,053.6

802.8

538.2

490.4

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

263.9

553.4

724.9

723.3

756.1

775.9

Working capital

(34.8)

21.1

40.7

38.2

5.7

3.5

Exceptional & other

4.5

(4.5)

1.3

(28.1)

(2.7)

(2.7)

Tax

(12.1)

(46.1)

(80.4)

(143.4)

(152.2)

(158.0)

net Operating Cash Flow

 

 

221.4

523.9

686.6

590.0

607.0

618.7

Net interest

(32.5)

(30.1)

(26.6)

(7.3)

(4.3)

(0.3)

Capex

(18.9)

(24.2)

(22.8)

(25.0)

(25.0)

(25.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

(90.2)

(18.2)

(32.2)

130.0

0.0

0.0

Equity financing

(0.1)

(0.2)

(2.0)

(30.0)

(120.0)

0.0

Dividends

(214.7)

(91.0)

(141.4)

(421.0)

(547.5)

(461.7)

Net new borrowings

(12.1)

0.5

(262.3)

(154.4)

0.0

(250.0)

Other

20.0

(7.1)

(335.2)

(183.3)

(20.8)

(21.5)

Net Cash Flow

(126.9)

353.5

(135.9)

(101.0)

(110.6)

(139.8)

Opening cash

 

 

633.8

506.9

860.4

724.5

623.5

512.8

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

506.9

860.4

724.5

623.5

512.8

373.1

Closing net debt/(cash) including IFRS 16, excluding investments

 

 

591.7

237.3

111.1

47.7

148.3

28.0

Source: OPAP accounts, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by OPAP and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by OPAP. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

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Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

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United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by OPAP and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by OPAP. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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