Last close As at 14/08/2026
EUR13.68
▲ 0.24 (1.79%)
Market capitalisation
EUR11,037m
Research: Consumer
OPAP’s Q323 results were negatively affected by industry-wide influences in sports betting, a tough comparative for Lotteries, and one-off natural events, which have led to a minor, c 3%, tweaking to management’s prior FY23 EBITDA guidance. From an operational perspective, the new iLottery platform is building awareness and growing revenue, and player activity increased on the OPAP Store app, while the retail offer continues to evolve.
OPAP |
Short-term challenges in Q323 |
Q323 results |
Travel and leisure |
24 November 2023 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
OPAP is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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OPAP’s Q323 results were negatively affected by industry-wide influences in sports betting, a tough comparative for Lotteries, and one-off natural events, which have led to a minor, c 3%, tweaking to management’s prior FY23 EBITDA guidance. From an operational perspective, the new iLottery platform is building awareness and growing revenue, and player activity increased on the OPAP Store app, while the retail offer continues to evolve.
Year end |
GGR* |
EBITDA** |
EPS** |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/21 |
1,538.8 |
551.2 |
0.82 |
1.50 |
17.7 |
10.3 |
12/22 |
1,939.0 |
722.6 |
1.23 |
1.45 |
11.8 |
9.9 |
12/23e |
2,059.3 |
720.7 |
1.18 |
1.49 |
12.3 |
10.2 |
12/24e |
2,164.4 |
753.4 |
1.26 |
1.28 |
11.6 |
8.8 |
12/25e |
2,229.5 |
773.2 |
1.32 |
1.34 |
11.0 |
9.2 |
Note: *GGR, gross gaming revenue. **EBITDA and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Some weakness in Q323
OPAP’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) declined by c 4% y-o-y to c €481m as online growth of c 3% was held back by: 1) weakness in sports betting (online and retail) due to unusually high industry-wide payouts and fewer games as result of changes to the football season in the prior year to accommodate the FIFA World Cup in December 2022; 2) a challenging comparative period and low jackpots in the current period for Lotteries; and 3) disruption to trading in locations in central Greece due to floods and fires. The lower revenue and underlying increases in all operating cost lines translated to a 13% decline in underlying EBITDA to c €170m. A fine of c €25m for alleged breaches of competition rules for the provision of bill payment and mobile top-up services between 2017 and 2021, which the company is appealing, further reduced reported EBITDA to c €145m, a 26% y-o-y decline from c €198m in Q322. OPAP moved to a net cash position by the period end as the receipt of proceeds for the sale of Betano further boosted free cash generation.
EBITDA guidance reduced by c 3%
Our new FY23 EBITDA estimate of c €721m (from €754m) compares with management’s new ‘recurring EBITDA’ (ie excluding the €25m fine) guidance for FY23 of €720–740m, a €20m or c 3% reduction from prior guidance of €740-760m. Our new estimate implies a c 9% y-o-y decline in recurring EBITDA in Q423. Management noted that weakness in sports betting continued in October followed by some normalisation through November, which will therefore affect Q423 results. However, we believe that reversion of the football season to its more typical schedule against an easier comparative from Q422 should be helpful.
Valuation: Appealing upside to DCF, high yield
Our DCF-based valuation has increased from €17.9/share to €18.5/share, with the impact of lower earnings estimates offset by OPAP’s improved financial position.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
€m |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023e |
2024e |
2025e |
||
Year end 31 December |
ISA |
ISA |
ISA |
ISA |
ISA |
ISA |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
1,129.8 |
1,538.8 |
1,939.0 |
2,059.3 |
2,164.4 |
2,229.5 |
NGR |
|
|
737.3 |
1,043.9 |
1,333.4 |
1,420.1 |
1,493.1 |
1,538.2 |
Cost of Sales |
(672.7) |
(883.7) |
(1,082.8) |
(1,179.3) |
(1,237.2) |
(1,273.6) |
||
Gross Profit |
457.1 |
655.2 |
856.2 |
880.0 |
927.2 |
955.9 |
||
Other Income |
42.5 |
217.4 |
230.2 |
238.6 |
241.6 |
243.2 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
263.9 |
551.2 |
722.6 |
720.7 |
753.4 |
773.2 |
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
|
|
147.2 |
408.6 |
591.2 |
592.6 |
625.4 |
645.2 |
Impairments |
(36.8) |
(4.7) |
(20.2) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
121.2 |
(0.5) |
179.9 |
(25.5) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Share-based payments |
0.0 |
(2.2) |
(2.3) |
(2.6) |
(2.7) |
(2.7) |
||
Reported operating profit |
231.6 |
401.3 |
748.6 |
564.5 |
622.7 |
642.4 |
||
Net Interest |
(33.5) |
(43.6) |
(40.1) |
(7.3) |
(4.3) |
(0.3) |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
18.3 |
(0.4) |
14.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
132.0 |
364.6 |
565.9 |
585.3 |
621.0 |
644.8 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
216.4 |
357.3 |
723.3 |
557.2 |
618.4 |
642.1 |
Reported tax |
(17.3) |
(96.4) |
(127.2) |
(143.4) |
(152.2) |
(158.0) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
100.3 |
284.4 |
441.4 |
441.9 |
468.9 |
486.9 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
199.1 |
260.9 |
596.0 |
413.8 |
466.2 |
484.1 |
||
Minority interests |
6.1 |
(1.4) |
(3.7) |
(10.8) |
(11.8) |
(12.6) |
||
Net income (normalised) |
106.4 |
282.9 |
437.7 |
432.1 |
459.1 |
477.3 |
||
Net income (reported) |
205.2 |
259.4 |
592.3 |
403.0 |
454.4 |
471.6 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
334 |
344 |
354 |
366 |
364 |
361 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
31.83 |
82.28 |
123.48 |
118.14 |
125.97 |
132.33 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
31.83 |
82.28 |
123.48 |
118.14 |
125.97 |
132.33 |
EPS - basic reported (€) |
|
|
0.61 |
0.75 |
1.67 |
1.10 |
1.25 |
1.31 |
Dividend (€) |
0.55 |
1.50 |
1.45 |
1.49 |
1.28 |
1.34 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
(30.3) |
36.2 |
26.0 |
6.2 |
5.1 |
3.0 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
40.5 |
42.6 |
44.2 |
42.7 |
42.8 |
42.9 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
23.4 |
35.8 |
37.3 |
35.0 |
34.8 |
34.7 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
13.0 |
26.6 |
30.5 |
28.8 |
28.9 |
28.9 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
1,806.4 |
1,695.0 |
1,553.2 |
1,426.5 |
1,320.8 |
1,215.0 |
Intangible Assets |
1,578.9 |
1,476.0 |
1,364.0 |
1,277.1 |
1,190.1 |
1,103.1 |
||
Tangible Assets |
127.5 |
105.6 |
88.9 |
70.1 |
51.4 |
32.6 |
||
Investments & other |
100.0 |
113.4 |
100.3 |
79.3 |
79.3 |
79.3 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
629.1 |
1,007.5 |
1,018.0 |
793.7 |
689.0 |
552.8 |
Stocks |
6.2 |
4.7 |
5.6 |
5.9 |
6.2 |
6.4 |
||
Debtors |
68.5 |
90.9 |
102.1 |
108.5 |
114.0 |
117.4 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
506.9 |
860.4 |
724.4 |
623.4 |
512.8 |
373.1 |
||
Other |
47.6 |
51.6 |
185.9 |
55.9 |
55.9 |
55.9 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(366.1) |
(571.5) |
(808.6) |
(853.4) |
(865.0) |
(872.2) |
Creditors |
(149.4) |
(168.2) |
(181.7) |
(226.5) |
(238.1) |
(245.2) |
||
Tax and social security |
(27.8) |
(60.7) |
(117.2) |
(117.2) |
(117.2) |
(117.2) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(40.7) |
(62.5) |
(289.5) |
(289.5) |
(289.5) |
(289.5) |
||
Other |
(148.2) |
(280.2) |
(220.2) |
(220.2) |
(220.2) |
(220.2) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(1,286.7) |
(1,181.7) |
(676.4) |
(530.3) |
(571.8) |
(369.5) |
Long term borrowings |
(1,057.9) |
(1,035.2) |
(546.0) |
(381.6) |
(371.6) |
(111.6) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(228.8) |
(146.5) |
(130.4) |
(148.7) |
(200.2) |
(257.9) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
782.7 |
949.4 |
1,086.3 |
836.5 |
572.9 |
526.2 |
Minority interests |
(41.1) |
(38.5) |
(32.7) |
(33.7) |
(34.7) |
(35.7) |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
741.6 |
910.9 |
1,053.6 |
802.8 |
538.2 |
490.4 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
263.9 |
553.4 |
724.9 |
723.3 |
756.1 |
775.9 |
||
Working capital |
(34.8) |
21.1 |
40.7 |
38.2 |
5.7 |
3.5 |
||
Exceptional & other |
4.5 |
(4.5) |
1.3 |
(28.1) |
(2.7) |
(2.7) |
||
Tax |
(12.1) |
(46.1) |
(80.4) |
(143.4) |
(152.2) |
(158.0) |
||
net Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
221.4 |
523.9 |
686.6 |
590.0 |
607.0 |
618.7 |
Net interest |
(32.5) |
(30.1) |
(26.6) |
(7.3) |
(4.3) |
(0.3) |
||
Capex |
(18.9) |
(24.2) |
(22.8) |
(25.0) |
(25.0) |
(25.0) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(90.2) |
(18.2) |
(32.2) |
130.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Equity financing |
(0.1) |
(0.2) |
(2.0) |
(30.0) |
(120.0) |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
(214.7) |
(91.0) |
(141.4) |
(421.0) |
(547.5) |
(461.7) |
||
Net new borrowings |
(12.1) |
0.5 |
(262.3) |
(154.4) |
0.0 |
(250.0) |
||
Other |
20.0 |
(7.1) |
(335.2) |
(183.3) |
(20.8) |
(21.5) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(126.9) |
353.5 |
(135.9) |
(101.0) |
(110.6) |
(139.8) |
||
Opening cash |
|
|
633.8 |
506.9 |
860.4 |
724.5 |
623.5 |
512.8 |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
506.9 |
860.4 |
724.5 |
623.5 |
512.8 |
373.1 |
Closing net debt/(cash) including IFRS 16, excluding investments |
|
|
591.7 |
237.3 |
111.1 |
47.7 |
148.3 |
28.0 |
Source: OPAP accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: TMT
4imprint’s Q323 trading update indicated further good growth, albeit moderating against comparatives getting tougher as the year progresses. Full year revenue guidance is maintained at ‘slightly above’ $1.3bn, with continuing high returns on marketing spend prompting a $5m uplift in PBT guidance to ‘not less than $130m’. 4imprint’s underlying markets reflect US corporate economic health, with any downside mitigated by the prospect of carrying on building market share as less well-funded firms struggle. Already the largest North American distributor of promotional products, 4imprint’s market share in H123 was just 5.9%, giving plenty to go for. The long-term growth record, strong cash generation and robust balance sheet underpin the rating.