AVAX (ASE: AVAX)

Last close As at 21/05/2024

EUR1.64

0.00 (0.00%)

Market capitalisation

EUR246m

Based in Greece, AVAX operates through three main segments: construction, concessions and real estate, and marinas, with a large international footprint. The largest segment, construction, is involved in large-scale private and public works, with unique experience among its peers, in energy infrastructure and subway construction.

The Greek construction market is worth around €7.5bn and can be split into two distinct sectors, housebuilding (c 30%) and civil engineering (c 70% non-residential construction, including commercial and infrastructure projects), including both private and public works. According to ELSTAT, overall average construction activity fell by just 9.5% in 2020, before increasing 7% in 2021 and 24.4% in 2022, the highest level since 2017 in absolute terms.

Latest Insights

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Industrials | Update

AVAX — Strong pipeline reaffirmed

Industrials | Flash note

AVAX — Exceeding expectations

Industrials | Update

AVAX — Record work-in-hand points to strong growth

Industrials | Flash note

AVAX — Completed divestment from energy sector

Sector

Industrials

Equity Analyst

Andy Murphy

Andy Murphy

Director, Financials & Industrials

Key Management

  • Christos Ioannou

    Executive chairman

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (€m)

170.5

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

93

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual 24.6 (7.8) 75.2
Relative 13.4 (13.2) 33.5
52 week high/low €1.9/€0.9

Financials

AVAX’s FY23 results highlight the group’s progress domestically as the market improved, more than offsetting the weaker international performance at the top-line and EBITDA level. We have downgraded our 2024 EPS estimates to reflect guidance on continued construction project delays. However, our forecasts incorporate a substantial y-o-y increase in profits, with both PBT and net income more than doubling, bolstered by a record order book of €3.3bn. Our fair value stands at €3.0/share (€3.2/share previously), indicating more than 100% upside potential.

Y/E Dec Revenue (€m) EBITDA (€m) PBT (€m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2022A 402.7 58.2 25.1 13.33 12.3 4.0
2023A 453.5 61.1 21.8 10.41 15.8 3.9
2024E 733.7 86.1 45.5 22.62 7.3 2.8
2025E 834.9 104.5 63.3 30.72 5.3 2.3

Research

Flash note

Industrials

AVAX — Completed divestment from energy sector

Flash note

Industrials

AVAX — Significant international project secured

Initiation

Industrials

AVAX — Building on strong foundations

Thematics

thematic

Industrials

Deutsches Eigenkapitalforum (EKF) 2023 industrials

thematic

Industrials

The long and winding road

thematic

Industrials

Quantum computing: A booming industry

thematic

Industrials

UK housebuilders

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