Last close As at 05/08/2026
EUR3.48
▲ −0.07 (−1.97%)
Market capitalisation
EUR517m
Research: Industrials
AVAX’s FY23 results highlight the group’s progress domestically as the market improved, more than offsetting the weaker international performance at the top-line and EBITDA level. We have downgraded our 2024 EPS estimates to reflect guidance on continued construction project delays. However, our forecasts incorporate a substantial y-o-y increase in profits, with both PBT and net income more than doubling, bolstered by a record order book of €3.3bn. Our fair value stands at €3.0/share (€3.2/share previously), indicating more than 100% upside potential.
AVAX |
Strong pipeline reaffirmed |
FY23 results |
Construction and materials |
8 May 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
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AVAX’s FY23 results highlight the group’s progress domestically as the market improved, more than offsetting the weaker international performance at the top-line and EBITDA level. We have downgraded our 2024 EPS estimates to reflect guidance on continued construction project delays. However, our forecasts incorporate a substantial y-o-y increase in profits, with both PBT and net income more than doubling, bolstered by a record order book of €3.3bn. Our fair value stands at €3.0/share (€3.2/share previously), indicating more than 100% upside potential.
Year end |
Revenue (€m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/22 |
402.7 |
25.1 |
0.13 |
0.07 |
11.2 |
4.8 |
12/23 |
453.5 |
21.8 |
0.10 |
0.03 |
14.6 |
2.1 |
12/24e |
733.7 |
45.5 |
0.23 |
0.08 |
6.3 |
5.5 |
12/25e |
834.9 |
63.3 |
0.31 |
0.08 |
4.7 |
5.5 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
FY23 results highlight domestic strength
FY23 revenue grew 13% y-o-y to €453.5m, 13% above our forecast of €402.2m despite continued delays in starting new construction projects awarded during the year, mostly outside of Greece. Growth was primarily attributable to domestic operations, with revenue of €400.3m (FY22: €267.6m) reflecting a pick-up in newly secured projects. This more than offset a reduction in international revenues of 61% to €53.3m. Normalised PBT declined 13.3% to €21.8m despite broadly flat financial expenses, largely due to a 32% decrease in income from associates to €32.4m. The balance sheet continues to strengthen with net debt (pre IFRS 16) reducing from €220.4m (end FY22) to €182.5m; this yields a leverage ratio of 3.0x, substantially healthier than the 6.4x at end-FY21. The sale of non-core assets and increasing income from concession dividend streams have been key contributors.
Order book growth reflects strong domestic position
At end April 2024, AVAX had a record order book of €3.3bn (€0.24bn awaiting signature), 52% above its €2.2bn order book at end April 2023. The growth was primarily due to a resurgence of activity in the domestic market. In our view, the strong order book growth reflects AVAX’s robust position and expertise in the Greek construction industry, which is now seeing a recovery due to the Greece 2.0 National Recovery and Resilience Plan. We have downgraded our FY24 forecasts, with PBT and EPS now at €45.5m and €0.23 (previously €61.4m and €0.32), respectively, reflecting a more cautious expectation of continuing construction project delays, albeit representing y-o-y growth of 109% and 117%.
Valuation: Continues to indicate material upside
Based on the combination of a DCF enterprise value of €299m for subsidiaries (primarily construction) and a value for associates (mainly concessions) of €421m, we value AVAX at €3.0/share (€3.2/share previously), implying significant upside. The company’s FY24e P/E of 6.3x is at a material 51% discount to peers.
Significant progress made in FY23
AVAX made good strategic progress in FY23, notably by completing the sale of its 100% subsidiary, Volterra, marking its full divestment from energy sector operations, alongside building up a record backlog of projects, which have a current value of €3.3bn. This paves the path for future growth, alongside a healthy portfolio of concessions which bolster cash flow visibility.
FY23 revenue grew 13% to €453.5m y-o-y, exceeding our previous forecast of €402.2m despite continued delays in starting new construction projects awarded during the year, mostly outside of Greece. Growth was primarily attributable to domestic operations, with revenue of €400.3m (FY22: €267.6m) reflecting a pick-up in newly secured projects. This more than offset a reduction in international revenues of 61% to €53.3m. Continuing, normalised PBT declined 13.3% to €21.8m despite broadly flat financial expenses, largely due to a 32% decrease in income from associates to €32.4m (associates that form the majority of concession operations are reported in AVAX’s accounts at the pre-tax level). Continuing net income declined by 21.8% to €15.0m, partially attributable to a €1m increase in tax to €6.7m. It is also worth noting that the FY22 €12.9m net income included a €9.4m extraordinary capital gain from the sale of the company’s stake in the Rio Bridge concession, somewhat masking underlying growth in FY23.
Exhibit 1: Summary of results (continuing operations)
€m |
FY21 |
FY22 |
FY23 |
% change |
Group revenue |
592.2 |
402.7 |
453.5 |
12.6% |
Gross profit |
31.6 |
20.9 |
36.8 |
76.2% |
Gross margin |
5.3% |
5.2% |
8.1% |
- |
Adjusted EBITDA |
51.0 |
58.2 |
61.1 |
4.9% |
Group adjusted EBITDA margin |
8.6% |
14.5% |
13.5% |
- |
EBIT |
38.0 |
45.8 |
42.6 |
(7.1%) |
EBIT margin |
6.4% |
11.4% |
9.4% |
- |
Profit before tax |
15.7 |
25.1 |
21.8 |
(13.3%) |
Net income |
17.6 |
19.2 |
15.0 |
(21.8%) |
Basic normalised EPS (€) |
0.12 |
0.13 |
0.10 |
(21.9%) |
Net cash/(debt) excluding lease liabilities |
(328.3) |
(220.4) |
(182.5) |
(17.2%) |
Source: AVAX accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: EBIT, PBT, net income and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Continuing operating cash flow in FY23 remained positive, increasing substantially from €13.1m to €61.3m, primarily driven by favourable working capital movements, shifting from a €7.3m outflow to a €45.2m inflow. The balance sheet continues to be strengthened y-o-y, with net debt (pre IFRS 16) reduced from €220.4m at end FY22 to €182.5m; this yields a leverage ratio of 3.0x, substantially healthier than the 6.4x at end-FY21. The sale of non-core assets and increasing income from concession dividend streams have been key factors in the debt reduction.
As of April 2024, AVAX had record work-in-hand worth €3.3bn (€0.24bn awaiting signature), significantly higher than pre-2023 levels, with much of it due to a resurgence of activity in the domestic construction market in Greece. Private projects and public-private partnerships make up 54% of the backlog. This strongly affirms AVAX’s expertise in the Greek construction industry with a recovering market aided by the Greece 2.0 National Recovery and Resilience Plan, which should stimulate Greek economic growth to 2026.
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Exhibit 2: Work-in-hand (€m) progression |
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|
Source: AVAX |
Maintained expectations of growth despite 2024 forecast downgrade
We have downgraded our 2024 forecasts (Exhibit 3) due to the continuation of construction project delays visible in FY24 so far, albeit at a much lower level than experienced in FY23. Nevertheless, with a record order backlog of €3.3bn and project execution projected at c €680m for 2024, we still anticipate a surge in profits for the year, forecasting continuing, normalised PBT and EPS growth of 109% and 117% y-o-y to €45.5m and €0.23, respectively. With the stronger cash generation, we anticipate the continuing deleveraging of the company to a healthy net debt level (pre IFRS 16) of €170.4m at end FY24, implying a leverage ratio of 2.0x.
Our FY25 forecasts remain broadly unchanged. Our 2025 normalised PBT forecast of €63.3m is 11.8% lower than previously estimated due to higher anticipated net finance costs from an increased debt assumption, implying 39.1% y-o-y growth. An increase in assumed tax rate from 25% previously to 30%, in line with the FY23 effective tax rate, contributes to lower FY25 forecast EPS of €0.31/share (€0.38/share previously), which still suggests substantial y-o-y growth.
Exhibit 3: Forecast revisions
2023 |
2024e |
2025e |
|||||
€m |
Old |
New |
% change |
Old |
New |
% change |
|
Revenue |
453.5 |
850.9 |
733.7 |
-13.8% |
837.6 |
834.9 |
-0.3% |
Y-o-y % change |
- |
87.6% |
61.8% |
- |
-1.6% |
13.8% |
- |
Adjusted EBITDA |
61.1 |
90.0 |
86.1 |
-4.3% |
100.0 |
104.5 |
4.5% |
Y-o-y % change |
- |
47.3% |
41.0% |
- |
11.1% |
21.3% |
- |
Normalised operating profit |
42.6 |
74.0 |
64.8 |
-12.5% |
82.7 |
81.2 |
-1.8% |
Y-o-y % change |
- |
73.8% |
52.1% |
- |
11.8% |
25.4% |
- |
Normalised PBT |
21.8 |
61.4 |
45.5 |
-25.9% |
71.7 |
63.3 |
-11.8% |
Y-o-y % change |
- |
182.3% |
109.2% |
- |
16.8% |
39.1% |
- |
EPS - (€) Continuing, basic |
0.10 |
0.33 |
0.23 |
-29.3% |
0.38 |
0.31 |
-19.2% |
Y-o-y % change |
- |
207.5% |
117.4% |
- |
18.8% |
35.8% |
- |
DPS (€) |
0.03 |
0.08 |
0.08 |
0.0% |
0.08 |
0.08 |
0.0% |
Y-o-y % change |
- |
166.7% |
166.7% |
- |
0.0% |
0.0% |
- |
Net debt (pre IFRS 16) |
182.5 |
176.8 |
170.4 |
-3.6% |
130.2 |
154.9 |
19.0% |
Y-o-y % change |
- |
-3.1% |
-6.6% |
- |
-26.4% |
-9.1% |
- |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Fair value of €3.0/share implies substantial upside
As AVAX continues to secure new major construction projects at wider margins (with the eventual easing of raw material costs), we expect share price momentum to accelerate. This trajectory should be bolstered by the robust portfolio of concessions, offering long-term cash flow visibility. As mentioned in our previous update note, we value the subsidiaries (mainly consisting of construction projects) using a three-stage tapered discounted cash flow (DCF) with a WACC of 9.4% and a conservative terminal growth rate of 0%. Due to downgrading our forecasts, this now gives us a value of €298.7m (€339.8m previously). We value the majority of AVAX’s associates based on FY23 fair value, albeit for the near-expiring Athens Ring Road concession valuation we use dividend share for the remaining concession period (which expires in October 2024), alongside share of equity on liquidation with adjustments. The fair value of participations declined modestly y-o-y overall, yielding a value of associates of €421.3m (previously €433.0m).
Combining both values, we arrive at a fair value of the stock at €3.00/share (€3.19 previously), implying 105% upside to the current share price. We also note that the shares trade at an FY24e P/E discount to peers of 51%. Given the record order book of €3.3bn combined with an improving balance sheet, the discount to foreign and local peers appears unwarranted to us and should narrow in our view.
Exhibit 4: Financial summary
€m |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024e |
2025e |
||
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
592.2 |
402.7 |
453.5 |
733.7 |
834.9 |
Cost of Sales |
(560.6) |
(381.8) |
(416.8) |
(667.7) |
(747.3) |
||
Gross Profit |
31.6 |
20.9 |
36.8 |
66.0 |
87.7 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
51.0 |
58.2 |
61.1 |
86.1 |
104.5 |
Operating EBITA (reported) |
|
|
22.7 |
39.6 |
37.9 |
60.0 |
76.5 |
Normalised operating profit (including JVs and sub debt) |
|
|
38.0 |
45.8 |
42.6 |
64.8 |
81.2 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
(15.7) |
(6.5) |
(5.1) |
(5.1) |
(5.1) |
||
Share-based payments |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Impairment |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Reported operating profit (including JVs and sub debt) |
22.2 |
39.3 |
37.5 |
59.7 |
76.2 |
||
Net Interest |
(22.3) |
(20.7) |
(20.8) |
(19.3) |
(17.9) |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
31.2 |
47.4 |
32.4 |
34.0 |
34.0 |
||
Exceptionals and sub debt/other |
5.3 |
6.6 |
6.6 |
8.2 |
10.2 |
||
Profit Before Tax (normalised, continuing) |
|
|
15.7 |
25.1 |
21.8 |
45.5 |
63.3 |
Profit Before Tax (reported, continuing) |
|
|
(0.0) |
18.5 |
16.687 |
40.4 |
58.2 |
Reported tax |
2.0 |
(5.6) |
(6.7) |
(12.1) |
(17.5) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
17.7 |
19.5 |
15.1 |
33.4 |
45.8 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
2.0 |
12.9 |
10.0 |
28.3 |
40.7 |
||
Minority interests |
(0.1) |
(0.2) |
(0.1) |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
||
Net income (normalised, continuing) |
17.6 |
19.2 |
15.0 |
33.1 |
45.6 |
||
Net income (reported, continuing) |
1.9 |
12.7 |
10.0 |
28.1 |
40.5 |
||
Discontinued |
(14.4) |
27.0 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Discontinued NCI |
(1.5) |
(1.6) |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Reported Group Net Income (continuing and discontinued) |
(14.1) |
38.1 |
10.3 |
28.1 |
40.5 |
||
Basic average number of shares outstanding (m) |
144 |
144 |
145 |
146 |
148 |
||
EPS - basic normalised (€) |
|
|
0.12 |
0.13 |
0.10 |
0.23 |
0.31 |
EPS - diluted normalised (€) |
|
|
0.12 |
0.13 |
0.10 |
0.23 |
0.31 |
EPS - basic reported (€) |
|
|
0.01 |
0.09 |
0.07 |
0.19 |
0.27 |
DPS (€) |
0.00 |
0.07 |
0.03 |
0.08 |
0.08 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
- |
-32.0 |
12.6 |
61.8 |
13.8 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
5.3 |
5.2 |
8.1 |
9.0 |
10.5 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
8.6 |
14.5 |
13.5 |
11.7 |
12.5 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
487.1 |
464.3 |
502.0 |
491.6 |
478.3 |
Intangible Assets |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
||
Tangible Assets |
61.3 |
53.2 |
49.1 |
39.3 |
27.6 |
||
Investments & other |
425.2 |
410.6 |
451.9 |
451.2 |
449.4 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
709.3 |
612.2 |
700.8 |
736.1 |
829.5 |
Stocks |
25.8 |
21.3 |
31.9 |
36.7 |
41.7 |
||
Debtors |
253.2 |
270.5 |
311.9 |
418.2 |
501.0 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
114.1 |
86.6 |
76.9 |
66.5 |
72.2 |
||
Other |
316.3 |
233.7 |
280.1 |
214.6 |
214.6 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
647.2 |
444.8 |
543.4 |
585.1 |
647.0 |
Creditors |
376.2 |
273.1 |
398.3 |
491.6 |
559.4 |
||
Tax and social security |
6.9 |
12.0 |
14.3 |
14.3 |
14.3 |
||
Short term borrowings |
107.5 |
78.1 |
62.4 |
60.0 |
60.0 |
||
Other |
156.6 |
81.5 |
68.4 |
19.2 |
13.4 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
438.9 |
476.8 |
499.6 |
460.1 |
448.8 |
Long term borrowings |
334.9 |
228.9 |
197.0 |
177.0 |
167.0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
104.0 |
247.9 |
302.6 |
283.1 |
281.8 |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
110.4 |
154.9 |
159.7 |
182.5 |
211.9 |
Minority interests |
(14.2) |
(0.9) |
(1.1) |
(1.4) |
(1.6) |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
96.2 |
154.0 |
158.6 |
181.2 |
210.3 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
51.5 |
58.6 |
61.1 |
86.1 |
104.5 |
||
Working capital |
48.9 |
(7.3) |
45.2 |
(17.9) |
(20.0) |
||
Exceptional & other |
(15.7) |
(6.5) |
(5.1) |
(5.1) |
(5.1) |
||
Tax |
(6.6) |
(2.6) |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
||
Other |
(24.5) |
(29.1) |
(41.1) |
(47.6) |
(53.0) |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
53.5 |
13.1 |
61.3 |
16.8 |
27.7 |
Capex |
(6.1) |
(4.3) |
(13.3) |
(10.5) |
(10.5) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
28.3 |
110.1 |
(2.1) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net interest |
(24.2) |
(22.0) |
(20.4) |
(19.3) |
(17.9) |
||
Equity financing |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(10.1) |
(4.3) |
(11.5) |
||
Other |
39.1 |
18.8 |
21.1 |
26.9 |
28.0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
90.7 |
115.7 |
36.6 |
9.6 |
15.6 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
453.8 |
328.3 |
220.4 |
182.5 |
170.4 |
FX |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
34.9 |
(7.9) |
1.3 |
2.5 |
(0.1) |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
328.3 |
220.4 |
182.5 |
170.4 |
154.9 |
Source: Edison Investment Research
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Research: TMT
MGI’s Q124 report shows an impressive 21% organic revenue uplift over Q123, with both good new client recruitment and higher spend from existing clients as corporate confidence rebuilds. With the market shift towards privacy-first advertising, despite Google’s continued deadline extensions for full cookie withdrawal, MGI’s AI-driven contextual targeting solution is well-placed. The move to a single infrastructure on the Google cloud should enhance scalability and improve efficiency. Our forecasts are edged ahead, to the midpoint of management revenue guidance, which is restrained by caution over the macroeconomic outlook. The rating remains at a discount to peers, despite an 80% share price gain year to date.