Based in Greece, AVAX operates through three main segments – construction, concessions and real estate, and marinas – with a large international footprint. The largest segment, construction, is involved in large-scale private and public works, with unique experience among its peers in energy infrastructure and subway construction.
The Greek construction market is worth around €7.5bn and can be split into two distinct sectors: housebuilding (c 30%) and civil engineering (c 70% non-residential construction, including commercial and infrastructure projects), including both private and public works. According to ELSTAT, overall average construction activity fell by just 9.5% in 2020, before increasing 7% in 2021 and 24.4% in 2022, the highest level since 2017 in absolute terms.
Industrials |
Update
Industrials |
Flash note
Industrials |
Update
Industrials |
Flash note
Christos Ioannou
Executive chairman
Forecast net debt (€m)
170.5
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
93
% | 1M | 3M | 12M |
---|---|---|---|
Actual | (4.3) | (5.4) | (5.6) |
Relative | (4.2) | (7.1) | (16.9) |
52 week high/low | €1.9/€1.2 |
AVAX’s recent results highlight the group’s progress in its domestic market, and the 2 July announcement of an $82m EPC contract for a power plant in Iraq points to good progress internationally too. Furthermore, on 25 July, AVAX announced the successful issue of a €300mn bond by its concessions subsidiary, with the aim of aligning the assets and debt of its project business, and putting the entity in a position to target new investments. Our 2024 estimates include a substantial year-on-year increase in profits, with both PBT and net income more than doubling, bolstered by a record order book of €3.3bn. Our fair value stands at €3.0/share, more than 100% above the current share price.
Y/E Dec | Revenue (€m) | EBITDA (€m) | PBT (€m) | EPS (fd) (c) | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022A | 402.7 | 58.2 | 25.1 | 13.33 | 10.1 | 3.3 |
2023A | 453.5 | 61.1 | 21.8 | 10.41 | 12.9 | 3.2 |
2024E | 733.7 | 86.1 | 45.5 | 22.62 | 5.9 | 2.3 |
2025E | 834.9 | 104.5 | 63.3 | 30.72 | 4.4 | 1.9 |