€158.3m market cap
€4.27 last close
Based in France, Nicox develops therapeutics for the treatment of ocular conditions. Lead development candidate NCX-470 is in Phase III studies for the treatment of glaucoma. Nicox also receives licence revenue from its partners for its FDA-approved drugs Vyzulta and Zerviate.
Investment summary
Nicox develops drugs for eye diseases, with lead candidate NCX-470 in Phase III trials targeting the topical ocular treatment of glaucoma. NCX-470 combines an NO-donating molecule with an analogue of established prostaglandin F2a drug, bimatoprost. NCX-470 0.065% has shown up to 1.4mmHg additional lowering of intraocular pressure (IOP) compared to latanoprost in the Phase II study, and the Phase III programme is testing a higher 0.1% concentration of NCX-470. Nicox is also advancing NCX-4251 in acute exacerbations of blepharitis, with results from a Phase IIb study expected in Q421.
Y/E Dec |
Revenue (€m) |
EBITDA (€m) |
PBT (€m) |
EPS (c) |
P/E (x) |
P/CF (x) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2019A | 8.3 | (17.2) | (16.0) | (40.1) | N/A | N/A |
2020A | 14.4 | (5.3) | (10.2) | (30.3) | N/A | N/A |
2021E | 10.2 | (14.8) | (16.1) | (43.2) | N/A | N/A |
2022E | 12.0 | (14.5) | (16.0) | (42.6) | N/A | N/A |
Industry outlook
NCX-470, if approved, could become the most efficacious single-agent glaucoma drug on the market in terms of IOP lowering activity. Top-line data from Mont Blanc, the first of two Phase III NCX-470 studies, are expected in H122. We expect a 2024 launch and sales of over €450m in 2030 in the US and major markets. Nicox had €29.4m in end-FY20 net cash, which we model should last into H222, beyond the Mont Blanc inflection point.
Last updated on 13/04/2021
Sector |
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Healthcare |
Share price graph
Balance sheet |
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Forecast net cash (€m) | 12.1 |
Forecast gearing ratio (%) | N/A |
Price performance
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1m |
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12m |
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Key management |
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Gavin Spencer | Executive VP and Chief Business Officer |
Michele Garufi | Chairman and CEO |
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