Nicox

EU: COX

€160.9m market cap

€4.34 last close

Based in France, Nicox develops therapeutics for the treatment of ocular conditions. Lead development candidate NCX-470 is in Phase III studies for the treatment of glaucoma. Nicox also receives licence revenue from its partners for its FDA-approved drugs Vyzulta and Zerviate.

Investment summary

Nicox develops drugs for eye diseases, with lead candidate NCX-470 in Phase III trials targeting the topical ocular treatment of glaucoma. NCX-470 combines an NO-donating molecule with an analogue of established prostaglandin F2a drug, bimatoprost. NCX-470 0.065% has shown up to 1.4mmHg additional lowering of intraocular pressure (IOP) compared to latanoprost in the Phase II study, and the Phase III programme is testing a higher 0.1% concentration of NCX-470. Nicox is also advancing NCX-4251 in acute exacerbations of blepharitis, with results from a Phase IIb study expected in Q421.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (€m)
EBITDA (€m)
PBT (€m)
EPS (c)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2018A 4.7 (20.7) (18.6) (63.1) N/A N/A
2019A 8.3 (17.4) (16.0) (40.1) N/A N/A
2020E 10.4 (9.0) (10.1) (28.6) N/A N/A
2021E 10.0 (15.3) (16.7) (44.8) N/A N/A
Industry outlook

NCX-470, if approved, could become the most efficacious single-agent glaucoma drug on the market in terms of IOP lowering activity. Top-line data from Mont Blanc, the first of two Phase III NCX-470 studies, are expected in H122. We expect a 2024 launch and sales of over €450m in 2030 in the US and major markets. Nicox had €29.4m in end-FY20 net cash, which we model should last into H222, beyond the Mont Blanc inflection point.

Last updated on 04/03/2021
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Sector
Healthcare
Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net cash (€m) 29.4
Forecast gearing ratio (%) N/A
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual (4.9) (1.3) 14.5
Relative* (8.0) (4.9) 7.7
52-week high/low €5.9/€2.8
*% relative to local index
Key management
Gavin Spencer Executive VP and Chief Business Officer
Michele Garufi Chairman and CEO