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Nicox

EU: COX

€158.3m market cap

€4.27 last close

Based in France, Nicox develops therapeutics for the treatment of ocular conditions. Lead development candidate NCX-470 is in Phase III studies for the treatment of glaucoma. Nicox also receives licence revenue from its partners for its FDA-approved drugs Vyzulta and Zerviate.

Investment summary

Nicox develops drugs for eye diseases, with lead candidate NCX-470 in Phase III trials targeting the topical ocular treatment of glaucoma. NCX-470 combines an NO-donating molecule with an analogue of established prostaglandin F2a drug, bimatoprost. NCX-470 0.065% has shown up to 1.4mmHg additional lowering of intraocular pressure (IOP) compared to latanoprost in the Phase II study, and the Phase III programme is testing a higher 0.1% concentration of NCX-470. Nicox is also advancing NCX-4251 in acute exacerbations of blepharitis, with results from a Phase IIb study expected in Q421.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (€m)
EBITDA (€m)
PBT (€m)
EPS (c)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2019A 8.3 (17.2) (16.0) (40.1) N/A N/A
2020A 14.4 (5.3) (10.2) (30.3) N/A N/A
2021E 10.2 (14.8) (16.1) (43.2) N/A N/A
2022E 12.0 (14.5) (16.0) (42.6) N/A N/A
Industry outlook

NCX-470, if approved, could become the most efficacious single-agent glaucoma drug on the market in terms of IOP lowering activity. Top-line data from Mont Blanc, the first of two Phase III NCX-470 studies, are expected in H122. We expect a 2024 launch and sales of over €450m in 2030 in the US and major markets. Nicox had €29.4m in end-FY20 net cash, which we model should last into H222, beyond the Mont Blanc inflection point.

Last updated on 13/04/2021
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Sector
Healthcare
Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net cash (€m) 12.1
Forecast gearing ratio (%) N/A
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual (3.9) (10.0) 15.4
Relative* (6.1) (17.2) (15.7)
52-week high/low €5.9/€3.3
*% relative to local index
Key management
Gavin Spencer Executive VP and Chief Business Officer
Michele Garufi Chairman and CEO