Nicox

EU: COX

Market Cap€119.9m

Last Close €3.15

Based in France, Nicox develops therapeutics for the treatment of ocular conditions. Lead development candidate NCX-470 is in Phase III studies for the treatment of glaucoma. Nicox also receives licence revenue from its partners for its FDA-approved drugs Vyzulta and Zerviate.

Investment summary

Nicox provided a mid-year business update on 16 July and reported details on the progress of its key programmes. The company’s lead internal programmes, NCX-470 and NCX-4251, continue to advance in their respective clinical trials. Top-line data from Mont Blanc, the first of two Phase III NCX-470 studies in glaucoma and ocular hypertension, is expected in Q222. Data from the second Phase III trial, Denali, are now expected in 2023 (versus Q422 previously), and we have revised our potential US launch timing estimate to H224 (vs H124 previously). Nicox recently completed final dosing and follow-up in the NCX-4251 Mississippi Phase IIb in acute blepharitis, an indication with no specific FDA-approved product to date. Top-line Mississippi data are expected in September 2021.

Y/E Dec	Revenue (€m)	EBITDA (€m)	PBT (€m)	EPS (fd) (c)	P/E (x)	P/CF (x)
2019A	8.3	(17.2)	(16.0)	(40.10)	N/A	N/A
2020A	14.4	(5.3)	(10.2)	(30.33)	N/A	N/A
2021E	8.8	(15.9)	(17.2)	(46.23)	N/A	N/A
2022E	11.9	(14.6)	(16.1)	(43.17)	N/A	N/A

Industry outlook

NCX-470, if approved, could become the most efficacious single-agent glaucoma drug on the market in terms of IOP lowering activity. Top-line data from Mont Blanc, the first of two Phase III NCX-470 studies that recently reached 50% enrolment, are expected in Q222. We expect a 2024 launch and sales of over €450m in 2030 in the United States and major markets. Nicox had €24.2m net cash in Q121, which we model should last into H222, beyond the Mont Blanc inflection point.

Last updated on 03/08/2021