Market Cap£2,364m

Last Close 2316p

With 2,271 shops and 12 manufacturing and distribution centres, Greggs is the leading UK ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It uses vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices. Its ambition is to grow revenue to £2.4bn by FY26.

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Investment summary

Greggs’ impressive sales performance in Q322, like-for-like sales (l-f-l) sales growth in company managed stores of 9.7% and total sales growth was 14.6%, enabled it to maintain its FY22 PBT guidance, despite the increasing pressures on consumer discretionary income and (maintained) input cost inflation guidance. Growth was driven by momentum in its own initiatives (eg menu innovation and trading in new channels and dayparts), which is helping Greggs to gain market share.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (£m)
PBT (£m)
EPS (fd) (p)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2020A 811.3 115.4 (12.9) (12.1) N/A 38.0
2021A 1229.7 259.0 145.6 114.3 20.3 7.5
2022E 1451.0 267.1 146.8 118.0 19.6 8.1
2023E 1654.7 307.5 165.3 122.0 19.0 7.2
Industry outlook

Greggs’ ambition to double revenue by FY26 has four key growth drivers: growing and developing the estate; leveraging digital channels; extending trading hours to the evening; and making Greggs mean more to more people. All will be enabled by higher investment in the supply chain and systems.

Last updated on 30/11/2022
Content on Greggs
Greggs plc – A ‘relative winner’
Consumer | research Update | 4 October 2022
Greggs plc – Strong H122 trading and progress on strategy
Consumer | research Update | 4 August 2022
Greggs – Profit outlook maintained for FY22
Consumer | research Update | 17 May 2022
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Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net debt (£m) 189.8
Forecast gearing ratio (%) 42
Price performance
Actual 14.8 25.5 (22.8)
Relative* 7.5 21.5 (24.9)
52-week high/low 3416.0p/1673.0p
*% relative to local index
Key management
Roisin Currie CEO
Richard Hutton FD