With 2,271 shops and 12 manufacturing and distribution centres, Greggs is the leading UK ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It uses vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices. Its ambition is to grow revenue to £2.4bn by FY26.
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Greggs’ impressive sales performance in Q322, like-for-like sales (l-f-l) sales growth in company managed stores of 9.7% and total sales growth was 14.6%, enabled it to maintain its FY22 PBT guidance, despite the increasing pressures on consumer discretionary income and (maintained) input cost inflation guidance. Growth was driven by momentum in its own initiatives (eg menu innovation and trading in new channels and dayparts), which is helping Greggs to gain market share.
Y/E Dec |
Revenue (£m) |
EBITDA (£m) |
PBT (£m) |
EPS (fd) (p) |
P/E (x) |
P/CF (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020A | 811.3 | 115.4 | (12.9) | (12.1) | N/A | 38.0 |
| 2021A | 1229.7 | 259.0 | 145.6 | 114.3 | 20.3 | 7.5 |
| 2022E | 1451.0 | 267.1 | 146.8 | 118.0 | 19.6 | 8.1 |
| 2023E | 1654.7 | 307.5 | 165.3 | 122.0 | 19.0 | 7.2 |
Industry outlook
Greggs’ ambition to double revenue by FY26 has four key growth drivers: growing and developing the estate; leveraging digital channels; extending trading hours to the evening; and making Greggs mean more to more people. All will be enabled by higher investment in the supply chain and systems.
Last updated on 30/11/2022Content on Greggs
Sector |
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Consumer
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Share price graph
Balance sheet |
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| Forecast net debt (£m) | 189.8 |
| Forecast gearing ratio (%) | 42 |
Price performance
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Key management |
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| Roisin Currie | CEO |
| Richard Hutton | FD |