With 2,224 shops and 12 manufacturing and distribution centres, Greggs is the leading UK ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It uses vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices. Its ambition is to grow revenue to £2.4bn by FY26.
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Greggs’ AGM trading update indicated it continues to trade well in what has undoubtedly become a more challenging environment due to deteriorating consumer confidence. In the 19 weeks to 14 May 2022, sales increased by c 31% to £495m, including like-for-like sales growth in company-managed stores of 27.4%, and 15.8% in the most recent 10 weeks. Trading is ‘flattered’ by the easy comparatives provided by COVID-19 restrictions in 2021. Management’s profit expectations for FY22 of no material profit progression are unchanged as it believes further selective price increases will be required to offset higher cost inflation than originally anticipated, which is likely to be the case for its competitors.
Y/E Dec |
Revenue (£m) |
EBITDA (£m) |
PBT (£m) |
EPS (fd) (p) |
P/E (x) |
P/CF (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020A | 811.3 | 115.4 | (12.9) | (12.1) | N/A | 29.6 |
| 2021A | 1229.7 | 259.0 | 145.6 | 114.3 | 15.8 | 5.9 |
| 2022E | 1429.0 | 266.9 | 146.9 | 118.0 | 15.3 | 6.4 |
| 2023E | 1630.0 | 307.5 | 165.3 | 122.3 | 14.8 | 5.6 |
Industry outlook
Greggs’ ambition to double revenue by FY26 has four key growth drivers: growing and developing the estate; leveraging digital channels; extending trading hours to the evening; and making Greggs mean more to more people. All will be enabled by higher investment in the supply chain and systems.
Last updated on 30/06/2022Content on Greggs
Sector |
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Consumer
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Share price graph
Balance sheet |
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| Forecast net debt (£m) | 137 |
| Forecast gearing ratio (%) | 30 |
Price performance
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Key management |
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| Roisin Currie | CEO |
| Richard Hutton | FD |