Market Cap£1,845m

Last Close 1808p

With 2,224 shops and 12 manufacturing and distribution centres, Greggs is the leading UK ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It uses vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices. Its ambition is to grow revenue to £2.4bn by FY26.

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Investment summary

Greggs’ AGM trading update indicated it continues to trade well in what has undoubtedly become a more challenging environment due to deteriorating consumer confidence. In the 19 weeks to 14 May 2022, sales increased by c 31% to £495m, including like-for-like sales growth in company-managed stores of 27.4%, and 15.8% in the most recent 10 weeks. Trading is ‘flattered’ by the easy comparatives provided by COVID-19 restrictions in 2021. Management’s profit expectations for FY22 of no material profit progression are unchanged as it believes further selective price increases will be required to offset higher cost inflation than originally anticipated, which is likely to be the case for its competitors.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (£m)
PBT (£m)
EPS (fd) (p)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2020A 811.3 115.4 (12.9) (12.1) N/A 29.6
2021A 1229.7 259.0 145.6 114.3 15.8 5.9
2022E 1429.0 266.9 146.9 118.0 15.3 6.4
2023E 1630.0 307.5 165.3 122.3 14.8 5.6
Industry outlook

Greggs’ ambition to double revenue by FY26 has four key growth drivers: growing and developing the estate; leveraging digital channels; extending trading hours to the evening; and making Greggs mean more to more people. All will be enabled by higher investment in the supply chain and systems.

Last updated on 30/06/2022
Content on Greggs
Greggs – Profit outlook maintained for FY22
Consumer | research Update | 17 May 2022
Greggs plc – Not peak Greggs yet
Consumer | research Outlook | 15 March 2022
Greggs – Medium-term growth ambition quantified
Consumer | research Flash note | 6 October 2021
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Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net debt (£m) 137
Forecast gearing ratio (%) 30
Price performance
Actual (20.1) (26.5) (30.3)
Relative* (14.9) (21.9) (29)
52-week high/low 3416.0p/1808.0p
*% relative to local index
Key management
Roisin Currie CEO
Richard Hutton FD