Market Cap£2699.3m

Last Close 2649p

With 2,146 shops and eight manufacturing and distribution centresGreggs is the leading UK ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It uses vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices. The ambition is to grow revenue to £2.4bn by FY26.

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Investment summary

Gregg’s Q321 trading statement (to 2 October) indicated improved revenue momentum despite recent supply chain and staffing disruptions and a further increase in FY21 profit expectations, although rising inflationary pressures (ingredients, staff and utilities) are expected from Q421. This suggests a more challenging FY22 from a cost perspective. Management set a new ‘ambitious’ five-year target (to the end of FY26) to double revenue to £2.4bn (CAGR of 14–15%). Our forecasts are under review.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (£m)
PBT (£m)
EPS (fd) (p)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2019A 1167.9 231.9 114.2 89.7 29.5 10.9
2020A 811.3 115.4 (12.9) (12.1) N/A 43.4
2021E N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2022E N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Industry outlook

Greggs enjoys an expanding market. The Project Café2017UK report (Allegra World Coffee portal) valued the UK coffee shop market in 2016 at £8.9bn, +12% y-o-y, with branded outlets accounting for £3.7bn. Allegra estimates it could reach £16bn by 2025. The squeezed consumer is a potential concern, although Greggs is well placed for the value switch after widespread refurbishments and extended customer options as it moves to widen its market.

Last updated on 20/01/2022
Content on Greggs
Greggs – Medium-term growth ambition quantified
Consumer | Flash note | 6 October 2021
Greggs – Let’s talk about growth…
Consumer | Update | 6 August 2021
Greggs – Rate of recovery continues to surprise
Consumer | Update | 28 June 2021
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Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net cash (£m) 140.7
Forecast gearing ratio (%) N/A
Price performance
Actual (12.5) (12.4) 32.7
Relative* (16.3) (15.6) 18.4
52-week high/low 3416.0p/1999.0p
*% relative to local index
Key management
Roger Whiteside CEO
Richard Hutton FD