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BCI Minerals

AU: BCI

AU$67.8m market cap

AU$0.17 last close

BCI Minerals has two major assets in Western Australia, including a 100% interest in the Mardie salt and potash project and a royalty-type interest in the Iron Valley iron ore mine operated by Mineral Resources. It also has exploration tenements in iron ore and other minerals.

Investment summary

BCI’s strategy is to deploy positive cash flow from Iron Valley with A$32.3m in cash (end-September 2019) to develop its flagship Mardie salt and potash project. An optimised pre-feasibility study (PFS) on Mardie demonstrated a project IRR of 20% and a pre-tax NPV of A$560m (at a 10% discount rate) – equivalent to A$1.40/share – a 67.2% increase over last year’s PFS. Large scale trials are underway and its DFS is now 75% complete and scheduled for completion in Q1 CY20.

Y/E Jun
Revenue (A$m)
EBITDA (A$m)
PBT (A$m)
EPS (c)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2018A 33.0 (14.4) (16.9) (4.3) N/A N/A
2019A 54.2 (2.6) (4.6) (0.8) N/A N/A
2020E 85.8 (10.6) (12.7) (3.2) N/A N/A
2021E 55.2 5.2 2.8 0.3 56.7 45.1
Industry outlook

Considering all of its assets, we value BCI at 36.56c/share. However, this valuation increases by 10.25c/share (or 28.0%) in the event that the iron ore price remains at US$76/t for standard 58% Fe product (CIF). In the meantime, BCI has signed six non-binding off-take agreements covering 60% and 10% of its first three years of salt and SOP output, respectively. It also reports ‘positive funding discussions’ with the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility (NAIF) regarding potentially concessional debt funding.

Last updated on 17/01/2020
Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net cash (A$m) 16.9
Forecast gearing ratio (%) N/A
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual 1.5 3.0 25.9
Relative* (1.8) (2.5) 3.6
52-week high/low A$0.2/A$0.1
*% relative to local index
Key management
Simon Hodge CFO
Alwyn Vorster Managing Director