BCI Minerals

AU: BCI

AU$61.6m market cap

AU$0.16 last close

BCI Minerals has two major assets in Western Australia, including a 100% interest in the Mardie salt and potash project and a royalty-type interest in the Iron Valley iron ore mine operated by Mineral Resources. It also has exploration tenements in iron ore and other minerals.

Investment summary

BCI’s strategy is to deploy positive cash flow from Iron Valley, in conjunction with c A$37m in cash, to develop its flagship Mardie salt and potash project. A PFS on Mardie demonstrated a project IRR of 20% and a pre-tax NPV of A$335m (at a 10% discount rate) – equivalent to A$0.84/share currently. This reduces to 5.84–11.15c/share to reflect its PFS stage of development. However, a DFS with the same conclusions as the PFS should immediately increase this to c 18.22c/share. Optimisation of expanded PFS parameters could also add 9.32c/share.

Y/E Jun
Revenue (A$m)
EBITDA (A$m)
PBT (A$m)
EPS (c)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2017A 64.3 9.1 6.0 1.9 8.2 4.1
2018A 33.0 (14.4) (16.9) (4.3) N/A N/A
2019E 52.5 (2.9) (5.6) (1.4) N/A N/A
2020E 57.6 (1.1) (3.6) (0.5) N/A N/A
Last updated on 21/03/2019
Industry outlook

Considering Iron Valley, Mardie and Buckland as they stand (along with cash and corporate items), we value BCI at A$0.3309/share at the current time. However, this valuation naturally increases with time to as high as 68.46c per share in FY28. It also increases to c 60c/share in the shorter-term in the event of either reduced assumed equity funding of the project and/or an increased price at which that funding is assumed to occur.

Last updated on 21/03/2019
Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net cash (A$m) 27.8
Forecast gearing ratio (%) N/A
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual 3.3 10.7 0.0
Relative* 2.1 (1.3) (3.4)
52-week high/low A$0.2/A$0.1
*% relative to local index
Key management
Simon Hodge CFO
Alwyn Vorster Managing Director