Alphamin Resources

CN: AFM

Market CapC$992m

Last Close C$0.78

Alphamin owns (84.14%) and operates the Bisie tin mine at Mpama North in the North Kivu province of the DRC with a grade of c 4.5% tin (the world’s highest). Accounting for c 4% of mined supply, it is the second largest tin mine in the world outside China and Indonesia.

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Investment summary

Alphamin offers rare exposure to a metal that both Rio Tinto and MIT regard as the most likely to benefit from the electrification of the world economy. Within this environment, its Mpama North mine at Bisie in the Democratic Republic of the Congo achieved steady-state production at a time when the tin price was experiencing its biggest squeeze in decades. As a result, the company is already net debt free and making distributions to shareholders. Since then, it has also announced Q122 results that were in line with our prior expectations, record quarterly production in Q2 and the development of another mine at Mpama South.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (US$m)
EBITDA (US$m)
PBT (US$m)
EPS (fd) (c)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2020A 187.4 58.3 15.7 (0.71) N/A 35.3
2021A 352.9 194.9 159.0 3.75 16.1 5.1
2022E 519.6 350.2 315.1 11.73 5.1 2.6
2023E 541.7 369.7 328.1 14.99 4.0 3.7
Industry outlook

At a long-term tin price of US$42,793/t, in April, we calculated a value for Alphamin of US$1.25 (or C$1.58) per share. However, a concerted exploration programme is ongoing and this valuation rose to as high as US$1.98/share (C$2.49/share) in the event of exploration successfully expanding and/or extending the life of operations.

Last updated on 08/08/2022
Content on Alphamin Resources
Alphamin Resources – Mpama South continues the charge
Metals & mining | research Update | 13 April 2022
20201118_122516
Alphamin Resources – Presenting the bull case
Metals & mining | research Update | 8 December 2021
20201118_122516
Alphamin Resources – Underlying results exceed prior forecasts
Metals & mining | research Update | 6 December 2021
20201118_122516
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Sector
Metals & mining
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Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net cash (US$m) 45.9
Forecast gearing ratio (%) N/A
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual 8.3 (39.1) (2.5)
Relative* 4.8 (36.1) 1.5
52-week high/low C$1.4/C$0.6
*% relative to local index
Key management
Maritz Smith CEO
Eoin O'Driscoll CFO
Boris Kamstra Executive director