Alphamin Resources — From alpha to omega

Alphamin Resources (TSXV: AFM)

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Research: Metals & Mining

Alphamin Resources — From alpha to omega

Alphamin announced record quarterly tin production of 4,917t (+22.1% quarter-on-quarter) in Q324 and EBITDA of US$91.6m (+68.8%) after the Mpama South mine completed its first full quarter of production at (or near) steady state. Alphamin’s consolidated annual financial statements and accompanying management discussion and analysis (MD&A) for FY24 will probably be released in early March. In the meantime, we are forecasting that EPS will continue to advance into FY25 and beyond under the influence of continued strength in the tin price and increasing efficiencies as both Mpama North and Mpama South develop (in particular) along strike.

Lord Ashbourne

Written by

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Metals & Mining

Alphamin Resources

From alpha to omega

Q324 results and site visit

Metals and mining

15 November 2024

Price

C$1.22

Market cap

C$1,557m

C$1.3930/US$

Net debt at end-September 2024, including US$6.7m in lease liabilities

US$7.8m

Shares in issue

1,276.2m

Free float

39%

Code

AFM

Primary exchange

TSX-V

Secondary exchange

JSE AltX

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(2.4)

18.5

35.6

Rel (local)

(4.7)

7.6

8.4

52-week high/low

C$1.3

C$0.8

Business description

Alphamin Resources owns (84.14%) and operates the Bisie tin mine at Mpama North and South in the North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo with a grade of c 4% tin (the world’s highest). Accounting for c 7% of global mined supply, it is the second largest tin mine in the world outside China and Indonesia.

Next events

Q424/FY24 operational results

Late January

Q424/FY24 results

March 2025

Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

+44 (0)20 3077 5724

Alphamin Resources is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Alphamin announced record quarterly tin production of 4,917t (+22.1% quarter-on-quarter) in Q324 and EBITDA of US$91.6m (+68.8%) after the Mpama South mine completed its first full quarter of production at (or near) steady state. Alphamin’s consolidated annual financial statements and accompanying management discussion and analysis (MD&A) for FY24 will probably be released in early March. In the meantime, we are forecasting that EPS will continue to advance into FY25 and beyond under the influence of continued strength in the tin price and increasing efficiencies as both Mpama North and Mpama South develop (in particular) along strike.

Year
end

Revenue (US$m)

PBT*
(US$m)

EPS*
(US$)

DPS
(C$)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/22

391

185

0.08

0.06

11.0

4.9

12/23

289

95

0.04

0.06

23.7

4.9

12/24e

541

213

0.08

0.09

10.6

7.4

12/25e

585

236

0.10

0.15

8.9

12.2

Note: *PBT and EPS are as reported.

FY24 interim dividend doubled to C$0.06/share

At the same time as announcing its operational results on 3 October, Alphamin also declared a doubling of its interim dividend to C$0.06/share. This is a significant expression of confidence in both the ramp-up of the Mpama South mine and conditions in the tin market generally.

Recent site visit highlighted strategy and tactics

A recent site visit to the mine revealed a lean and well-run operation protected from regional events by its remoteness and obscurity in an environment of thick rainforest. The company’s immediate focus is on brownfields exploration to extend the lives of both Mpama North (currently estimated by Edison to be 12 years) and Mpama South (14 years). Exploration at Mpama North – where the grade in individual stopes can reach as high as 15% – is focused on exploration along strike, where successful extensions will lead to the lowest-cost production opportunities, accessible for only incremental lateral development costs and zero vertical development costs. Once the current programme of drilling from surface at Mpama South at depth below the bottom end of the current resource boundary has been completed, Alphamin will update its reserves and resources and its mine plans (likely in FY26).

Valuation: Peers imply C$2.62

We are forecasting earnings to almost treble in FY25 relative to FY23. At the same time, Alphamin is priced at multiples that are cheaper than the averages of its peers in 75% of (ie 9 out of 12) valuation measures. On a discrete basis, it is cheaper than its peers in 19 out of 33 (or 57%) of valuation measures. Reverse engineered, we calculate that the average Alphamin share price implied by the average multiples of its peers is C$2.62 – not least on account of its high relative dividend yield deriving from its imminent effective net debt-free status, its increased cash generation (with Mpama South) and its intention to retain only US$25–40m on its balance sheet in the absence of any new, major development projects.

Q324 results

Alphamin announced record quarterly tin production of 4,917t (+22.1% quarter-on-quarter) in Q324, EBITDA of US$91.6m (+68.8%) and a doubled C$0.06 interim FY24 dividend. A summary of its operating results in the quarter relative to the prior seven quarters – plus our forecasts for Q4 and FY24 – is provided in the table below:

Exhibit 1: Alphamin operating results, Q422–Q424e

Q422

FY22

Q123

Q223

Q323

Q423

FY23

Q124

Q224

Q324

Q424e

FY24e

Tonnes processed

106,087

436,400

95,751

99,035

100,395

105,510

400,691

109,424

166,676

229,107

225,000

730,207

Tin grade (%)

4.0

3.82

4.4

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.15

3.83

3.2

2.9

3.0

3.14

Contained tin (t)

4,243

16,652

4,194

4,169

4,096

4,199

16,659

4,191

5,334

6,644

6,750

22,919

Overall plant recovery (%)

73.0

75.0

76.0

76.0

76.0

75.0

75.4

75.0

75.0

73.5

74.1

74.6

Actual payable tin produced (t)

3,113

12,493

3,187

3,151

3,104

3,126

12,568

3,142

4,028

4,917

5,000

17,087

Payable tin sold (t)

3,119

12,764

3,161

3,068

3,110

2,046

11,385

4,126

3,245

5,552

5,000

17,923

Tin price achieved (US$/t)

21,436

30,636

26,432

25,587

26,557

25,157

26,009

26,863

32,314

31,757

30,595

30,407

AISC* (US$/t Sn sold)

13,439

14,237

13,915

13,987

14,625

14,638

14,205

14,858

15,556

15,728

15,700

15,489

Source: Alphamin Resources, Edison Investment Research. Note: As reported (100% basis). *All-in sustaining costs.

The increase in tin production was largely the result of the Mpama South expansion contributing for a full quarter compared to only half the quarter in Q224, which resulted in a 37.5% increase in ore processed to 229.1kt (cf a pro-rata target rate of 225kt per quarter). The tin grade of the ore feed was similarly in line with expectations, at 2.9%, to produce metal at a rate of c 20,000t per annum at steady state. Both processing facilities were reported to have performed well during the quarter and achieved an overall plant recovery of 73.4%, in line with expectations. Tin sales increased by 71.1% to 5,552t, which exceeded production by 635t and, to all intents and purposes, cleared the sales backlog experienced in Q2.

The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) per tonne of tin sold was US$15,728 and was in line with both expectations and the prior quarter’s number of US$15,556/t. As such, in the 19 quarters since Q419 (NB Alphamin declared commercial production in Q319), Alphamin’s AISC have risen by only 25.2% – a rate equivalent to a compound annual average growth rate of just 4.8% per annum – at a time when US dollar costs would have been expected to rise, on average, by 22.7% (or an average of 4.4% per annum) as a result of inflation alone. This increase is despite a 77.9% increase in the price of tin over the same time period, which directly affects costs in the form of royalties, marketing fees and export duties, etc. Alphamin’s AISC of US$15,728/t in Q324 implies a cash margin of 47.0% relative to a tin price at the time of writing of US$29,663/t.

Exhibit 2: Alphamin’s all-in sustaining costs compared to the tin price, Q419–Q324 (US$/t)

Source: Alphamin Resources, Edison Investment Research

With the exception of a period of volatility in the first two full quarters after commercial production was declared, this near 50% gross margin is in line with the average gross margin calculated for the period Q319–Q424e:

Exhibit 3: Alphamin gross margin, Q319–Q424e (%)

Source: Edison Investment Research, Alphamin Resources

Off-mine costs are expected to reduce from early Q424 owing to a c 60% reduction in marketing fees as a condition of the previously announced extension of the tin concentrate off-take agreement with Gerald Metals.

Site visit

Alphamin hosted a visit for analysts and interested parties to both Mpama North and Mpama South between 9 and 11 October. The site visit was attended by Edison and a summary of the author’s principal observations and conclusions regarding the operation is as follows:

Entry into the Democratic Republic of the Congo was via Goma (population circa two million) on the northern shore of Lake Kivu in the North Kivu province. Contrary to the image often portrayed in mainstream media, Goma gave the impression of being a vibrant and busy city and not at all a war-torn ruin on the frontline of a civil war at the mercy of various foreign-backed rebel militias. While there was a noticeable army and UN presence near the airport, there was no visible tension. Street markets appeared busy and there was little or no sense of any disruption to civil society.

The journey out to the mine was undertaken by a c 45-minute flight by light aircraft and the major impression was the unbroken canopy of rainforest and of the remoteness of the mine site relative to any population centres. The aircraft landed at Alphamin’s own purpose-built airstrip at Bisie a short (c 25 minute) drive to the mine. Security on the drive was provided, although there was little explicit evidence that it was necessary. With the exception of a handful of local pedestrians, no other users of either the airstrip or the road to the mine were observed.

The mine was located on the side of the Bisie ridge with the processing plant at its foot. The footprint of the entire operation was small – approximately 1.8 x 1.0 kilometres. Ingress to the mine was achieved via adits, with the main vertical artery being a spiral decline. While developed separately, the two mines are now connected via two drives from 8 and 9 Levels, which provides flexibility to the overall mining operation.

Grades in individual stopes can be as high as 15% tin (which would probably be extracted at c 13% Sn). In general, grades are higher in northern sections of Mpama North and also at depth (albeit at a reduced strike length, but nevertheless containing more tin on balance). Reserves at the current fully developed echelon are sufficient to support mining for another 2.0–2.5 years, after which operations drop to the next level. Within this context, Alphamin is conducting ongoing grade control drilling at a rate of c 1,000m per month. It has also re-commenced exploration drilling, with one drill rig underground at Mpama North and another drilling from surface at Mpama South (to target extensions at depth below the resource). Activity at Mpama North, in particular, is focused on exploration along strike, where the orebody appears to thin, but where successful strike extensions will lead to the lowest-cost production opportunities, accessible for only incremental lateral development costs and zero vertical development costs.

Once the current programme of underground, brownfields exploration has been completed, Alphamin will update its reserves and resources (likely in FY26) and its mine plans. Simultaneously, as soon as an external review of its exploration and drilling data has been completed with recommendations for priority areas for exploration, we expect it to conduct regional exploration along the Bisie Ridge, up to 3km to the north of Mpama North and up to 10km to the south of Mpama South.

Exhibit 4: Underground drilling at Mpama North

Exhibit 5: Photograph of Mpama South plant shaking tables showing pink cassiterite concentrate bands

Source: Edison Investment Research

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 4: Underground drilling at Mpama North

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 5: Photograph of Mpama South plant shaking tables showing pink cassiterite concentrate bands

Source: Edison Investment Research

In addition to visiting the mine, we were also given the opportunity to visit the new Mpama South plant and (old) No. 1 and (new) No. 2 tailings dams. Overall, the plant presented itself as a neat, highly engineered, modern and logical tin concentration pathway, comprising a number of gravimetric processes by which to recover cassiterite, including an initial jig (by far the most important component, recovering c 40% of the crushed ore, but c 92% of the contained tin), followed (inter alia) by shaking tables, spirals and a centrifugal fine tin recovery circuit.

Exhibit 6: From Alpha – Mpama North mine (also showing a section of the plant)

Exhibit 7: To Omega – the No. 2 Tailings dam ready for deposition

Source: Edison Investment Research

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 6: From Alpha – Mpama North mine (also showing a section of the plant)

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 7: To Omega – the No. 2 Tailings dam ready for deposition

Source: Edison Investment Research

All of Alphamin’s tailings storage facilities (TSFs) are downstream of the plant and are of the ‘valley-fill’ type of design. As the No. 1 tailings dam nears capacity, with only approximately six months of deposition available to it, Alphamin has constructed its No. 2 dam, which should now last the best part of 10 years. Beyond that, the operation is permitted for a number of other, similar TSFs of a similar design. Given the absence of either harsh chemicals in the plant (which runs almost exclusively on water) or acid drainage, the TSFs are unlined.

In conclusion, should any readers have the opportunity to attend a similar site visit in the future, we would recommend that they accept the invitation.

FY24 forecasts

With the caveat that the quarterly results of mining companies can demonstrate material volatility relative to both historical results and analysts’ forecasts, our quarterly estimates for Alphamin for FY24 are provided in the table below. At the time of writing, the three-month price of tin is US$29,663/t and, for the purposes of forecasting, we have assumed this price prevails for the remainder of the year.

Exhibit 8: Edison forecast of Alphamin income statement, FY24e, by quarter (US$ unless otherwise indicated)

Q124

Q224

Q324e

Q424e

FY24e

FY24e
(prior)

Tons processed (t)

109,424

166,676

229,107

225,000

730,207

799,715

Tin grade (%)

3.83

3.2

2.9

3.0

3.14

3.09

Contained tin (t)

4,191

5,334

6,644

6,750

22,919

24,751

Overall plant recovery (%)

75.0

75.0

73.5

74.1

74.6

75.9

Actual payable tin produced (t)

3,142

4,028

4,917

5,000

17,087

18,782

Payable tin sold (t)

4,126

3,245

5,552

5,000

17,923

18,782

Tin price achieved (US$/t)

26,863

32,314

31,757

30,595

30,407

30,891

Revenue

109,310,086

103,860,882

174,545,424

152,972,602

540,688,994

580,209,818

Cost of goods sold

(53,482,478)

(41,980,750)

(76,287,026)

(64,945,690)

(236,695,944)

(239,035,357)

Depreciation

8,409,107

10,993,696

13,997,510

14,485,877

47,886,190

43,252,730

Gross profit

47,418,501

50,886,436

84,260,888

73,541,036

256,106,861

297,921,731

General and administrative

(5,644,404)

(7,069,192)

(8,554,310)

(8,554,310)

(29,822,216)

(23,362,329)

Operating profit/(loss)

41,774,097

43,817,244

75,706,578

64,986,726

226,284,645

274,559,402

Other

Warrants

0

0

0

0

0

Profit on foreign exchange

(336,214)

(139,245)

(226,367)

(701,826)

Loss on write-off of assets

0

0

Interest expense

(3,493,836)

(3,655,921)

(3,980,940)

Interest income

5,645

4,488

169,357

Net interest

(3,488,191)

(3,651,433)

(3,811,583)

(1,400,000)

(12,351,207)

(217,408)

Profit before taxes

37,949,692

40,026,566

71,668,628

63,586,726

213,231,612

274,341,993

Current income tax expense

(9,695,498)

(19,913,278)

(29,803,626)

(23,209,155)

(82,621,557)

(82,302,598)

Deferred tax movement

(3,349,157)

2,395,022

(1,057,274)

(2,011,409)

Total tax

(13,044,655)

(17,518,256)

(30,860,900)

(23,209,155)

(84,632,966)

(82,302,598)

Effective tax rate (%)

34.4

43.8

43.1

36.5

39.7

30.0

Net profit/(loss)

24,905,037

22,508,310

40,807,728

40,377,571

128,598,646

192,039,395

Attributable to:

Shareholders

20,706,866

18,082,637

32,941,038

33,973,688

105,704,229

161,581,947

Non-controlling interests

4,198,171

4,425,673

7,866,690

6,403,883

22,894,417

30,457,448

Minority (%)

16.9

19.7

19.3

15.86

17.80

15.86

Total

24,905,037

22,508,310

40,807,728

40,377,571

128,598,646

192,039,395

Weighted average number of shares in period

1,275,429,527

1,275,632,105

1,275,787,191

1,276,210,479

1,275,764,826

1,275,343,813

Derivatives

10,002,198

13,264,088

10,729,444

12,800,000

11,698,933

11,646,582

Fully diluted weighted average number of shares in issue

1,285,431,725

1,288,896,193

1,286,516,635

1,289,010,479

1,287,463,758

1,286,990,395

Headline earnings

20,706,866

18,082,637

32,941,038

33,973,688

105,704,229

161,581,947

Headline earnings (excluding warrant charge)

20,706,866

18,082,637

32,941,038

33,973,688

105,704,229

161,581,947

EPS (US$/share)

0.0162

0.0142

0.0258

0.0266

0.0829

0.1267

Diluted EPS (US$/share)

0.0161

0.0140

0.0256

0.0264

0.0821

0.1256

HEPS* (US$/share)

0.0162

0.0142

0.0258

0.0266

0.0829

0.1267

Diluted HEPS (US$/share)

0.0161

0.0140

0.0256

0.0264

0.0821

0.1256

Headline EPS excluding warrant charge (US$/share)

0.0162

0.0142

0.0258

0.0266

0.0829

0.1267

Source: Alphamin, Edison Investment Research. Note: Company presented basis. *HEPS, headline earnings per share: a South African reporting requirement based entirely on operational, trading and capital investment activities and excluding profits or losses from the sale or termination of discontinued operations, fixed assets or related businesses or from any permanent devaluation or write-off of their values.

Although, on the face of it, our earnings forecasts have declined since the time of our last note, this reflects little more than production at Mpama South ramping up from May instead of January and a three-month delay in the tin price meeting our forecast long-term price of US$31,651/t. Otherwise, Alphamin’s forecast effective tax rate of 39.7% for FY24 is in line with both the historical norm and the corporate income tax rate for mining companies in the Democratic Republic of the Congo of 30% (plus dividend withholding taxes). At the same time, its percentage minority interest of 17.80% is close to the level expected given Alphamin’s 84.14% ownership of the Bisie mining complex.

Beyond FY24

Beyond FY24, we expect Alphamin’s EPS profile to continue to grow as:

Mpama South achieves a full year of production, and

costs (which we expect to remain at FY24’s level in FY25) begin to abate as operating efficiencies are achieved.

As a result, we forecast earnings to nearly treble from FY23 to FY25 and Alphamin’s maximum potential dividend to increase to in excess of 15 US cents per share (in excess of 20 Canadian cents per share). At Alphamin’s current share price, this suggests a current year P/E ratio falling from 17.9x in FY23 to 10.6x currently and 6.2x in FY28.

Exhibit 9: Alphamin estimated future EPS, (maximum potential*) DPS and valuation, LOM

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *From FY27.

Consistent with its near 50% gross margin, each 10% change in the tin price from current levels results in a c 20% change in our EPS forecasts.

Dividends

In addition to its operational results, on 3 October, Alphamin announced that the board has declared an interim FY24 cash dividend of C$0.06/share (c US$57m in aggregate), which is double the interim dividend in FY23 and implies a full year payout of C$0.12/share. The dividend was paid on 4 November to shareholders of record as of the close of business on 25 October.

In future, dividends will be assessed every six months with respect to profitability, cash flow and investment commitments. Subject to these considerations however, a payout ratio of approximately 50% of EBITDA is anticipated, all other things being equal. Note however that, for the purposes of our dividend forecasts, we have assumed that Alphamin will wish to retain US$40m in cash on its balance sheet in both FY25 and FY26.

Relative valuation

Profitable, listed tin producers are relatively rare, even globally, and producers of tin concentrate even rarer. Below is a table of companies that Edison believes reasonably represent Alphamin’s closest peers, together with a series of commonly used prospective valuation multiples (where available).

Exhibit 10: Alphamin valuation relative to four tin peers

Company

Comment

Mkt cap
(US$m)

P/E ratio (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

Yield (%)

P/CF (x)

Yr 1

Yr 2

Yr 3

Yr 1

Yr 2

Yr 3

Yr 1

Yr 2

Yr 3

Yr 1

Yr 2

Yr 3

Alphamin

1,117.7

10.6

8.9

7.9

4.3

3.9

3.5

7.4

12.2

14.3

5.4

6.0

5.0

Metals X

Australia’s largest tin* producer

252.5

2.7

2.5

0.0

0.0

Yunnan Tin

Chinese refined tin producer

3,422.8

13.6

10.6

9.9

7.3

6.1

6.3

2.2

2.8

3.1

4.8

5.1

5.6

PT Timah

Indonesian refined producer plus logistics

627.9

9.9

7.1

7.0

4.0

3.0

3.4

0.0

0.0

5.5

Malaysia Smelting

Malaysian refined tin producer

210.0

10.5

8.7

7.3

6.8

5.7

4.7

3.4

3.7

4.6

Average

11.3

8.8

8.1

5.2

4.3

4.8

1.4

1.6

4.4

4.8

5.1

5.6

Implied AFM share price (C$)

1.31

1.21

1.25

1.53

1.40

1.74

6.42

9.06

3.99

1.10

1.03

1.37

Source: Edison Investment Research, LSEG Data & Analytics. Note: *Concentrate. Peers priced at 15 November 2024.

Of note is the fact that Alphamin is priced at multiples that are cheaper than the averages of its peers in 75% of (ie 9 out of 12) valuation measures. On a discrete basis, it is cheaper than its peers in 19 out of 33 (or 57%) of valuation measures. Alternatively, we calculate that the average Alphamin share price implied by the average multiples of its peers is C$2.62. Part of the reason for this is our assumption of a sharply increased dividend in FY25 and into the future, reflecting Alphamin’s near net debt-free status, its increased cash generation (with Mpama South) and its intention to retain only US$25–40m in cash on its balance sheet in the absence of any new, major development projects.

Financials

In the first nine months of FY24, Alphamin generated US$163.3m in operational cash flow, before investing US$46.4m in capex to result in a net cash inflow before financing items of US$116.9m and net debt (excluding leases) reducing from US$65.3m at end-FY23 to US$1.1m at end-Q324. Hereafter, however, we expect Alphamin to be strongly cash generative, as during the period Q419–Q222 at Mpama North, but with the added benefit of meaningful, low-cost production from Mpama South as well. At the same time, we anticipate that capex will return to near sustaining levels only.

Exhibit 11: Financial summary

Accounts: IFRS, Yr end: December, $000s

 

 

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024E

2025E

2026E

INCOME STATEMENT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

 

27,221

187,445

352,883

391,052

288,505

540,689

585,198

612,034

Cost of sales

 

 

(7,915)

(119,554)

(138,217)

(146,983)

(130,257)

(236,696)

(249,062)

(243,890)

Gross profit

 

 

19,306

67,892

214,666

244,069

158,248

303,993

336,136

368,145

SG&A (expenses)

 

 

(14,526)

(17,238)

(19,754)

(24,797)

(21,952)

(29,822)

(34,217)

(34,217)

R&D costs

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other income/(expense)

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals and adjustments

 

(3,673)

(7,649)

(3,680)

(2,885)

763

0

0

0

Depreciation and amortisation

 

 

(7,927)

(25,471)

(26,632)

(28,806)

(31,289)

(47,886)

(59,985)

(63,189)

Reported EBIT

 

 

(3,147)

25,182

168,279

190,467

105,007

226,285

241,934

270,738

Finance income/(expense)

 

 

(6,330)

(15,614)

(8,358)

(4,820)

(7,207)

(12,351)

(6,327)

(5,600)

Other income/(expense)

 

 

(4)

(1,518)

(874)

(499)

(2,334)

(702)

0

0

Exceptionals and adjustments

 

6,850

(8,776)

(26,922)

(484)

0

0

0

0

Reported PBT

 

 

(2,632)

(725)

132,126

184,664

95,466

213,232

235,607

265,138

Income tax expense (includes exceptionals)

 

 

7,755

(7,141)

(68,558)

(62,933)

(37,502)

(84,633)

(85,997)

(96,775)

Reported net income

 

 

5,123

(7,866)

63,568

121,731

57,964

128,599

149,610

168,363

Basic average number of shares, m

 

 

845

1,066

1,195

1,272

1,275

1,276

1,276

1,276

Basic EPS (US$/share)

 

 

0.01

(0.01)

0.04

0.08

0.04

0.08

0.10

0.11

DPS (C$/share)

 

 

0.00

0.00

0.03

0.06

0.06

0.09

0.15

0.17

Adjusted EBITDA

 

 

8,453

58,302

198,592

222,157

135,537

274,171

301,919

333,928

Adjusted EBIT

 

 

526

32,831

171,959

193,352

104,248

226,285

241,934

270,738

Adjusted PBT

 

 

(5,809)

15,699

162,728

188,032

94,707

213,232

235,607

265,138

Adjusted EPS (C$/share)

 

 

0.01

(0.01)

0.05

0.10

0.05

0.11

0.14

0.15

Adjusted diluted EPS (US$/share)

 

 

0.00

(0.01)

0.04

0.08

0.04

0.08

0.10

0.11

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Property, plant and equipment

 

 

255,125

239,103

227,720

263,041

349,518

350,469

310,901

268,232

Goodwill

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Intangible assets

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other non-current assets

 

 

10,632

15,882

27,088

27,548

37,733

44,864

59,864

74,864

Total non-current assets

 

 

265,757

254,985

254,808

290,589

387,251

395,333

370,765

343,097

Cash and equivalents

 

 

5,941

6,559

90,640

119,389

7,159

53,459

40,000

40,000

Inventories

 

 

27,755

21,866

20,674

24,814

41,809

62,216

62,066

64,912

Trade and other receivables

 

 

1,486

7,601

47,626

27,819

42,933

38,515

41,685

43,597

Other current assets

 

 

17,633

6,710

7,402

27,491

37,609

28,359

28,359

28,359

Total current assets

 

 

52,815

42,736

166,342

199,513

129,509

182,548

172,109

176,867

Non-current loans and borrowings

 

 

78,229

34,821

0

0

6,575

6,575

6,575

6,575

Other non-current liabilities

 

 

9,641

8,872

31,258

32,394

35,189

78,667

53,038

52,392

Total non-current liabilities

 

 

87,870

43,693

31,258

32,394

41,764

85,241

59,613

58,967

Trade and other payables

 

 

22,544

16,034

10,582

21,284

38,431

30,721

34,118

33,410

Current loans and borrowings

 

 

16,339

25,810

17,035

4,422

65,894

65,894

65,894

65,894

Other current liabilities

 

 

17,233

14,253

51,541

64,597

5,159

1,895

981

981

Total current liabilities

 

 

56,116

56,098

79,158

90,303

109,484

98,510

100,993

100,285

Equity attributable to company

 

 

145,215

171,735

274,727

320,425

312,786

336,368

326,388

308,251

Non-controlling interest

 

 

29,371

26,196

36,007

46,980

52,726

57,761

55,880

52,462

CASH FLOW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Profit for the year

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Taxation expenses

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Profit before tax

 

 

(2,632)

(725)

132,126

184,664

95,466

213,232

235,607

265,138

Net finance expenses

 

 

5,456

15,616

8,359

4,912

7,568

0

0

0

EBIT

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Depreciation and amortisation

 

 

7,927

26,504

26,634

28,806

31,289

47,886

59,985

62,459

Share based payments

 

 

403

471

681

265

33

0

0

0

Other adjustments

 

 

(6,851)

8,842

26,985

711

0

0

0

0

Movements in working capital

 

 

(6,710)

(20,281)

(43,636)

18,833

(21,824)

(14,449)

377

(5,466)

Interest paid / received

 

 

(3,092)

(11,378)

(6,758)

(3,597)

(5,187)

0

0

0

Income taxes paid

 

 

0

(843)

(2,196)

(47,966)

(105,360)

(37,891)

(110,711)

(97,421)

Cash from operations (CFO)

 

 

(5,498)

18,205

142,194

186,627

1,986

208,778

185,258

224,710

Capex

 

 

(22,720)

(7,448)

(22,516)

(53,447)

(117,223)

(49,968)

(35,418)

(34,790)

Acquisitions & disposals net

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other investing activities

 

 

(46)

(96)

(3,014)

(19,312)

0

(6,000)

0

0

Cash used in investing activities (CFIA)

 

 

(22,766)

(7,544)

(25,531)

(72,759)

(117,223)

(55,968)

(35,418)

(34,790)

Net proceeds from issue of shares

 

 

11,936

10,010

19,852

2,513

343

332

0

0

Movements in debt

 

 

0

(18,735)

(45,198)

(13,552)

66,752

0

0

0

Dividends paid

 

 

0

0

(5,552)

(71,517)

(61,027)

(100,313)

(161,471)

(189,919)

Other financing activities

 

 

5,165

(1,319)

(1,685)

(2,563)

(3,061)

(6,528)

(1,828)

0

Cash from financing activities (CFF)

 

 

17,100

(10,044)

(32,582)

(85,119)

3,007

(106,510)

(163,299)

(189,919)

Currency translation differences and other

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Increase/(decrease) in cash and equivalents

 

 

(11,164)

617

84,081

28,749

(112,230)

46,300

(13,459)

0

Currency translation differences and other

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Cash and equivalents at end of period

 

 

5,941

6,559

90,640

119,389

7,159

53,459

40,000

40,000

Net (debt) cash

 

 

(88,627)

(54,073)

73,605

114,966

(65,310)

(19,011)

(32,469)

(32,469)

Movement in net (debt) cash over period

 

 

(24,836)

34,554

127,678

41,361

(180,277)

46,300

(13,459)

0

Source: Alphamin accounts, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Alphamin Resources and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Alphamin Resources. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Alphamin Resources and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Alphamin Resources. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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Apax Global Alpha (AGA) reported a Q324 NAV total return (TR) of 1.7% in euro terms on a constant currency basis (-0.2% including fx changes), with a 3.2pp positive contribution from earnings momentum across its private equity (PE) investments. The company experienced a pick-up in new investments, and also saw some positive trends on the realisation front. Following recent exits and accounting for the take-private transaction of Thoughtworks, AGA’s pro-forma exposure to listed holdings has been reduced to 4%, limiting the impact on AGA’s returns. While these investments have already yielded a realised return of 3x investment cost, their de-rating post IPO has been one of the contributors to AGA’s weaker performance lately. Within its recently updated capital allocation framework, AGA now offers a stable dividend of 11p per share (which implies an attractive 7.5% dividend yield) as well as buybacks funded with excess cash flow from realisations.

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