Alphamin Resources — Roaring back

Alphamin Resources (TSXV: AFM)

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Research: Metals & Mining

Alphamin Resources — Roaring back

Alphamin’s performance in Q321 came roaring back, after a Q2 in which it encountered an area of unexpectedly low grade. Overall, tonnes processed during the quarter were almost exactly in line with our prior expectations. However, the grade mined was 0.2pp better at 3.5% tin, while metallurgical recovery was 3.7pp better than Q2 after the commissioning of the fine tin recovery plant to result in the company’s second best quarter ever, in terms of tin production, after Q420. Coupled with an achieved tin price that was 19.5% better (quarter-on-quarter), this resulted in EBITDA guidance for the quarter of US$53.0m – 55.5% higher than Q221. Note that this report updates our forecasts for both Q321 and Q421. Full financial results are scheduled for 10 November.

Lord Ashbourne

Written by

Lord Ashbourne

Director, Energy & Resources

Metals & Mining

Alphamin Resources

Roaring back

Q3 production results

Metals & mining

5 October 2021

Price

C$0.88

Market cap

C$1,049m

C$1.2590/US$

Net cash (US$m) at end-September 2021

1.0

Shares in issue

1,192.3m

Free float

42%

Code

AFM

Primary exchange

TSX-V

Secondary exchange

JSE AltX

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

10.0

15.8

309.3

Rel (local)

14.2

16.8

230.7

52-week high/low

C$0.89

C$0.19

Business description

Alphamin owns (84.14%) and operates the Bisie tin mine at Mpama North in the North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo with a grade of c 4.5% Sn (the world’s highest). Accounting for c 4% of mined supply, it is the second largest tin mine in the world outside China and Indonesia.

Next events

Q321 financial results

10 November 2021

Mpama South resource

Year-end 2021

Q421/FY21 results

March 2022

Q122 results

May 2022

Analyst

Charles Gibson

+44 (0)20 3077 5724

Alphamin Resources is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Alphamin’s performance in Q321 came roaring back, after a Q2 in which it encountered an area of unexpectedly low grade. Overall, tonnes processed during the quarter were almost exactly in line with our prior expectations. However, the grade mined was 0.2pp better at 3.5% tin, while metallurgical recovery was 3.7pp better than Q2 after the commissioning of the fine tin recovery plant to result in the company’s second best quarter ever, in terms of tin production, after Q420. Coupled with an achieved tin price that was 19.5% better (quarter-on-quarter), this resulted in EBITDA guidance for the quarter of US$53.0m – 55.5% higher than Q221. Note that this report updates our forecasts for both Q321 and Q421. Full financial results are scheduled for 10 November.

Year end

Revenue (US$m)

PBT*
(US$m)

EPS*
(US$)

DPS
(US$)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/19

27

(3)

0.01

0.00

118.5

N/A

12/20

187

(1)

(0.01)

0.00

N/A

N/A

12/21e

311

118

0.06

0.00

12.6

N/A

12/22e

265

94

0.05

0.00

14.1

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are as reported.

Immediate results from new mining practices

Alphamin’s operational performance was achieved by significantly improved underground mining practices since mid-July 2021, relating to stope planning, delineation and blasting. This resulted in an average tin grade of 3.5% for the quarter, including 3.8% processed during both August and September (implying, among other things, an average tin grade processed in July of c 2.9%). In addition to improved grade control, run-of-mine volumes and waste development were reported to have increased by 5% quarter-on-quarter and, although this probably caused costs to increase by marginally more than we would otherwise have expected, the company nevertheless provided EBITDA guidance of US$53.0m in Q321 (+55.5% cf Q221).

Achieves net cash

In addition to its production results, Alphamin reported that it is in a net cash position for the first time at the end of Q321 and that it will devise a strategy in Q4 to balance capital allocations between ongoing exploration drilling, the potential fast-track development of the Mpama South deposit and shareholder distributions.

Valuation: Exploration is key

Our valuation of Alphamin is under review pending a reconsideration of our long-term tin price. Assuming that the current three-month price of tin (US$33,835/t) prevails for the remainder of Bisie’s life however (ie adopting the current tin price as our long-term price), we calculate a valuation for Alphamin (excluding any blue-sky exploration potential) of 70.0 US cents, or 88.1 Canadian cents, per share. However, this would rise to potentially as high as US$1.58/share (C$2.00/share) in the event that management is successful in its exploration strategy (see Alphamin’s recent exploration updates) to the extent that it replenishes reserves and resources and keeps its plant at full capacity beyond FY27 and into the future.

Q321 production results

A summary of Alphamin’s production results for Q321 plus Edison’s updated financial forecasts (which also now consider the Q221 reported results) for FY21, by quarter (with the appropriate caveats – regarding the warrant charge and deferred tax, in particular), is provided in the table below:

Exhibit 1: Edison forecast of Alphamin income statement, Q121a–Q421e (US$ unless otherwise indicated)

Q121a

Q221a

Q321e

Q421e

FY21e
(current)

FY21e
(prior)

Tons Processed (t)

93,997

105,294

*108,901

108,000

416,192

383,072

Tin Grade (%)

3.8

3.2

*3.5

3.4

3.46

4.03

Contained tin (t)

3,572

3,369

*3,812

3,638

14,391

15,425

Overall plant recovery (%)

74

72

*75.2

78

74.6

75.8

Actual payable tin produced (t)

2,611

2,412

*2,832

2,850

10,739

11,693

Payable Tin Sold (t)

3,351

2,404

*2,710

2,266

10,887

11,779

Tin Price achieved (US$/t)

23,083

28,326

*33,863

33,023

29,143

27,111

Revenue

76,032,045

68,053,576

91,768,730

74,821,772

310,676,123

318,012,509

Cost of goods sold

(37,256,106)

(29,780,333)

(34,039,234)

(24,717,131)

(125,792,804)

(119,019,873)

Depreciation

6,380,606

6,423,261

6,511,323

6,599,386

25,914,576

25,905,182

Gross profit

32,395,333

31,849,982

51,218,173

43,505,255

158,968,743

173,087,454

General and administrative

(4,549,884)

(4,729,496)

(4,729,496)

(4,729,496)

(18,738,372)

(18,288,330)

Operating profit/(loss)

27,845,449

27,120,486

46,488,677

38,775,759

140,230,371

154,799,124

Other

Warrants

(5,636,827)

(10,293,542)

(15,930,369)

(5,636,827)

Profit on foreign exchange

16,595

(45,653)

(29,058)

16,595

Loss on write off of assets

0

0

0

0

Interest expense

(2,648,401)

(2,280,673)

Interest income

11

298

Net interest

(2,648,390)

(2,280,375)

(1,235,712)

(296,969)

(6,461,446)

(6,196,756)

Profit before taxes

19,576,827

14,500,916

45,252,964

38,478,790

117,809,498

142,982,136

Current income tax expense

(11,113)

(11,499)

(11,313,241)

(9,619,698)

(20,955,551)

(30,862,440)

Deferred tax movement

(8,713,199)

(9,588,773)

(18,301,972)

(8,713,199)

Total tax

(8,724,312)

(9,600,272)

(11,313,241)

(9,619,698)

(39,257,523)

(39,575,639)

Effective tax rate (%)

(44.6)

66.2

25.0

25.0

33.3

27.7

Net profit/(loss)

10,852,515

4,900,644

33,939,723

28,859,093

78,551,975

103,406,497

Other Comprehensive income

Items that may be reclassified to profit or loss

0

(7,237)

(7,237)

Exchange differences on translation of foreign operations

(1,803)

0

(1,803)

(1,803)

Total comprehensive profit/(loss) for the period

10,850,712

4,893,407

33,939,723

28,859,093

78,542,935

103,404,694

Profit/(loss) and total comprehensive profit/(loss) attributable to:

Shareholders

8,002,190

4,900,644

28,556,883

24,282,041

65,741,758

85,877,110

Non-controlling interests

2,850,325

0

5,382,840

4,577,052

12,810,217

17,529,387

Minority (%)

26.3

0.00

15.86

15.86

16.3

17.0

Total

10,852,515

4,900,644

33,939,723

28,859,093

78,551,975

103,406,497

Weighted average number of shares in period

1,182,251,580

1,188,156,191

1,192,267,057

1,192,267,057

1,188,897,472

1,184,798,408

Derivatives

119,536,582

95,621,651

95,181,199

95,181,199

95,181,199

98,507,626

Fully diluted weighted average number of shares in issue

1,301,788,162

1,283,777,842

1,287,448,256

1,287,448,256

1,284,078,671

1,283,306,034

Headline earnings

8,002,190

4,900,644

28,556,883

24,282,041

65,741,758

85,877,110

EPS (US$/share)

0.0068

0.0041

0.0240

0.0204

0.0553

0.0725

Diluted EPS (US$/share)

0.0061

0.0038

0.0222

0.0189

0.0512

0.0669

HEPS (US$/share)

0.0068

0.0041

0.0240

0.0204

0.0553

0.0725

Diluted HEPS (US$/share)

0.0061

0.0038

0.0222

0.0189

0.0512

0.0669

Source: Alphamin, Edison Investment Research. Note: Company presented basis; *Actual.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

Accounts: IFRS, Yr end: December, US$000s

 

 

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

Income statement

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

 

0

27,221

187,445

310,676

265,366

Cost of sales

 

 

0

(7,915)

(119,554)

(125,793)

(125,809)

Gross profit

 

 

0

19,306

67,892

184,883

139,558

SG&A (expenses)

 

 

(9,440)

(14,526)

(17,238)

(18,738)

(18,918)

Other income/(expense)

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals and adjustments

 

0

(3,673)

(7,649)

0

0

Depreciation and amortisation

 

 

(20)

(7,927)

(25,471)

(25,915)

(26,831)

Reported EBIT

 

 

(9,460)

(3,147)

25,182

140,230

93,808

Finance income/(expense)

 

 

3

(6,330)

(15,614)

(6,461)

102

Other income/(expense)

 

 

7

(4)

(1,518)

(29)

0

Exceptionals and adjustments

 

6,272

6,850

(8,776)

(15,930)

0

Reported PBT

 

 

(3,178)

(2,632)

(725)

117,809

93,910

Income tax expense (includes exceptionals)

 

 

0

7,755

(7,141)

(39,258)

(23,477)

Reported net income

 

 

(3,178)

5,123

(7,866)

78,552

70,432

Basic average number of shares, m

 

 

733

845

1,066

1,189

1,192

Basic EPS (US$/share)

 

 

(0.00)

0.01

(0.01)

0.06

0.05

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted EBITDA

 

 

(9,440)

8,453

58,302

166,145

120,640

Adjusted EBIT

 

 

(9,460)

526

32,831

140,230

93,808

Adjusted PBT

 

 

(9,450)

(5,809)

15,699

133,740

93,910

Adjusted EPS (C$/share)

 

 

(0.00)

0.01

(0.01)

0.07

0.06

Adjusted diluted EPS (US$/share)

 

 

(0.00)

0.00

(0.01)

0.05

0.05

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Balance sheet

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Property, plant and equipment

 

 

230,626

255,125

239,103

221,995

199,502

Other non-current assets

 

 

2,467

10,632

15,882

22,033

24,743

Total non-current assets

 

 

233,093

265,757

254,985

244,028

224,244

Cash and equivalents

 

 

17,105

5,941

6,559

20,337

117,569

Inventories

 

 

3,235

27,755

21,866

17,023

14,541

Trade and other receivables

 

 

0

1,486

7,601

31,068

26,537

Other current assets

 

 

3,738

17,633

6,710

6,710

6,710

Total current assets

 

 

24,078

52,815

42,736

75,138

165,356

Non-current loans and borrowings

 

 

80,896

78,229

34,821

0

0

Other non-current liabilities

 

 

6,699

9,641

8,872

8,872

8,872

Total non-current liabilities

 

 

87,595

87,870

43,693

8,872

8,872

Trade and other payables

 

 

7,030

23,487

17,037

17,281

17,283

Current loans and borrowings

 

 

0

16,339

25,810

0

0

Other current liabilities

 

 

5,711

16,290

13,250

13,250

13,250

Total current liabilities

 

 

12,742

56,116

56,098

30,531

30,533

Equity attributable to company

 

 

131,914

145,215

171,735

240,757

300,018

Non-controlling interest

 

 

24,921

29,371

26,196

39,006

50,176

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cashflow statement

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Profit before tax

 

 

(3,178)

(2,632)

(725)

117,809

93,910

Net finance expenses

 

 

0

5,456

15,616

0

0

Depreciation and amortisation

 

 

20

7,927

26,504

25,915

26,831

Share based payments

 

 

300

403

471

0

0

Other adjustments

 

 

(6,272)

(6,851)

8,842

0

0

Movements in working capital

 

 

3,942

(6,710)

(20,281)

(18,380)

7,016

Interest paid / received

 

 

0

(3,092)

(11,378)

0

0

Income taxes paid

 

 

0

0

(843)

(39,258)

(23,477)

Cash from operations (CFO)

 

 

(5,188)

(5,498)

18,205

86,087

104,280

Capex

 

 

(116,094)

(22,720)

(7,448)

(14,957)

(7,048)

Acquisitions & disposals net

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

Other investing activities

 

 

151

(46)

(96)

0

0

Cash used in investing activities (CFIA)

 

 

(115,943)

(22,766)

(7,544)

(14,957)

(7,048)

Net proceeds from issue of shares

 

 

55,235

11,936

10,010

3,280

0

Movements in debt

 

 

69,448

0

(18,735)

(60,631)

0

Dividends paid

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

Other financing activities

 

 

6,317

5,165

(1,319)

0

0

Cash from financing activities (CFF)

 

 

131,000

17,100

(10,044)

(57,351)

0

Currency translation differences and other

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

Increase/(decrease) in cash and equivalents

 

 

9,869

(11,164)

617

13,778

97,232

Cash and equivalents at end of period

 

 

17,105

5,941

6,559

20,337

117,569

Net (debt) cash

 

 

(63,791)

(88,627)

(54,073)

20,337

117,569

Movement in net (debt) cash over period

 

 

(63,791)

(24,836)

34,554

74,410

97,232

Source: Company sources, Edison Investment Research


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This report has been commissioned by Alphamin Resources and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Alphamin Resources. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

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This report has been commissioned by Alphamin Resources and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Alphamin Resources. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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New Zealand

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United Kingdom

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United States

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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