Alkane Resources has two main assets in Central West New South Wales: the Tomingley gold mine, where recent exploration has increased the mine life by at least eight years, from FY23 to FY31, and its Northern Molong Porphyry project, which is shaping up to be a tier 1 alkalic porphyry district.
Our valuation of Alkane continues to be underpinned by Tomingley (A$0.60/share). Liquid assets contribute a further A$0.01/share, with the value of Boda and Kaiser now estimated at a combined A$0.50/share. We also estimate A$0.48 per share in potential upside in the event of further exploration success at Boda and Kaiser and another A$0.65/share in the event of metals prices remaining at current levels, rather than reverting to our somewhat conservative longer-term numbers.
Metals & Mining |
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Metals & Mining |
Update
Metals & Mining |
Update
Metals & Mining |
Flash note
Ian Chalmers
Technical director
Ian Gandel
Chairman
Nic Earner
MD
Forecast net cash (A$m)
34.3
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
N/A
% | 1M | 3M | 12M |
---|---|---|---|
Actual | (5.6) | 2.6 | (32.6) |
Relative | (1.7) | 2.4 | (35.2) |
52 week high/low | A$0.9/A$0.5 |
Interim production at Tomingley of 29,057oz at an AISC of A$2,177/oz compares with FY24 guidance of 60–65koz production at an AISC of A$1,750–2,100/oz. Tomingley’s mine life has already been increased from CY23 to at least CY31 and subsequent exploration has further increased reserves as well as delineating a resource at Boda of 10.9Moz gold equivalent (AuE) and one of 4.7Moz AuE at Kaiser, with a further resource update anticipated at Kaiser in the current quarter (followed by a conceptual Boda-Kaiser mine plan).
Y/E Jun | Revenue (A$m) | EBITDA (A$m) | PBT (A$m) | EPS (fd) (c) | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022A | 165.0 | 87.5 | 52.1 | 3.63 | 16.3 | N/A |
2023A | 190.5 | 94.9 | 60.6 | 7.00 | 8.4 | N/A |
2024E | 182.1 | 76.1 | 52.6 | 6.05 | 9.8 | N/A |
2025E | 236.9 | 89.5 | 65.6 | 7.55 | 7.8 | N/A |