The total effect of the updates to our forecasts is a decrease in our valuation of the Tomingley Gold Mine to A$0.26/share from A$0.33/share using a discounted dividend model. This is largely a result of the mine life not having been extended during the last financial year as we rolled our model forward.
It is important to point out that our valuation does not include two critical elements that Alkane is working on, which could add significant value to the company. First, the mineral resource to the south of Tomingley, the potential of which we discussed in our last note. Second, the potential of the Northern Molong Porphyry Project to become a standalone project. While both developments have attracted significant investor interest, we are waiting on the release of the initial mineral resource estimate for Tomingley and additional drill results from Northern Molong before factoring these developments into our valuation.
It is also important to note that Alkane has defined resources below the current depth of the existing underground mine plan at Tomingley, which could, with further definition drilling, extend the life of mine beyond 2022.
Further, recent regional drilling has highlighted the potential for both the San Antonio and Roswell Prospects, located under 5km from the Tomingley plant, to extend the plant life. We expect that a resource estimate will be established for both projects by the end of the calendar year.
An underground operation could also be established at the old Peak Hill Gold Mine, located 20km south of the Tomingley plant, where Alkane has a complaint mineral resource estimate of 108,000oz Au at a grade of 3.29g/t Au.
We value Alkane’s 13.0% holding in Calidus Resources at A$0.015/share (previously A$0.012/share) and its 15.1% holding in Genesis Minerals at A$0.014/share, both using the current market price for each company’s shares. We have updated the value of the Zircon Tech investment based on movements in exchange rates to A$0.004/share (previously A$0.003/share).
While our forecasts for the Dubbo project have been pushed back by two years, it is outweighed by the increase in Alkane’s share price to A$0.77/share from A$0.31/share in our last valuation update (published on 7 June 2019) means that we forecast a lower amount of dilution relating to the potential equity component of funding the Dubbo project, which increases our valuation per share. We continue to assume that the prices of metals improve to the level that Alkane expects over the next three years. On this basis, our valuation of Alkane including Dubbo could increase to A$0.97/share (previously A$0.53/share).
FY19 results: Comparison to our forecasts
Gold production from Tomingley totalled 48,969oz, ahead of our forecast of 48,000oz. Gold sales of 52,068oz were slightly lower than our forecast of 52,800oz due to lower inventory sales than forecast.
The average all in sustaining cost (AISC) for FY19 was US$646.25 (A$947/oz) compared to our forecast of US$703/oz (A$1,004/0z) Au due to lower sustaining costs than anticipated during Q419.
The sales price per ounce of A$1,777 during FY19 was above our forecast for the year of A$1,755oz, and as a result revenue from gold sales during FY19 totalled A$92.5m, slightly ahead of our forecast of A$92.1m. Profit after tax was A$23.3m, ahead of our forecasts of A$21.1m due to lower reported tax and an increase in deferred tax liabilities.
Net cash at the end of the period was A$69.6m, ahead of our forecasts of A$59.6m, largely due to increased deferred tax liabilities and lower than expected sustaining capex.
Year-on-year comparison (12 months)
Revenue from gold sales for FY19 totalled $92.5m, down 28.2% from A$128.8m in FY18, despite a 4.2% increase in the realised gold price to A$1,777/oz in FY19 from A$1,706/oz. The decline in revenue was driven by the move to underground mining, which reduced gold production by 37.6% to 48,969oz in FY19 compared to 78,533oz in FY18, with gold sales reduced by 31.0% to 52,068oz in FY19 compared to 75,507oz in FY18. AISC declined 5.6% during FY19 to A$946/oz Au from A$1,002/oz Au in FY18. Net cash decreased to A$69.6m at the end of FY19, down 3.3% from A$72.0m at the end of FY18.
Changes to our FY20 forecasts
Operational changes: our operational forecasts for Tomingley remain unchanged. We expect the mine to produce 27,212oz in 2020, increasing to 36,973oz in 2021, then decreasing to 33,128oz in 2022. We forecast AISC to be US$936/oz Au in 2020, decreasing to US$842/oz Au in 2021 and decreasing further to US$681/oz Au in 2022. Our forecasts for the Dubbo Project have been pushed out by two years.
Income statement changes: our forecast revenue from gold sales for FY20 increases to A$63.7m from A$57.3m, driven by the increased gold price, with cost of sales increasing to A$26.7m from A$26.5m. As a result, EBITDA increases to A$28.6m from A$21.0m and PBT to A$20.7m from A$7.7m.
Cash flow statement changes: our estimated operating cash flow for FY20 has increased to A$11.8m from A$11.2m, with cash used in investing activities increasing to A$32.6m from A$119.3m, largely due to the push back in the timing of the development of the Dubbo project. As a result, we estimate net cash at end FY20 of A$49.3m (previously A$38.5m).
Exhibit 12: Financial summary
|
|
A$’000s |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020e |
2021e |
2022e |
30 June |
|
|
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
INCOME STATEMENT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue |
|
|
117,792.0 |
128,799.0 |
92,513.0 |
63,738.9 |
76,850.9 |
73,749.8 |
Cost of Sales |
|
|
(57,073.0) |
(51,304.0) |
(53,747.0) |
(26,664.6) |
(36,627.6) |
(30,418.2) |
Gross Profit |
|
|
60,719.0 |
77,495.0 |
38,766.0 |
37,074.4 |
40,223.2 |
43,331.6 |
EBITDA |
|
|
49,333.0 |
67,403.0 |
30,461.0 |
28,603.3 |
31,582.7 |
34,518.2 |
Normalised operating profit |
|
|
7,607.0 |
30,932.0 |
25,152.0 |
20,251.7 |
23,018.5 |
26,089.4 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Exceptionals |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Share-based payments |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Reported operating profit |
|
|
7,607.0 |
30,932.0 |
25,152.0 |
20,251.7 |
23,018.5 |
26,089.4 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(1,035.0) |
572.0 |
1,062.0 |
493.5 |
598.2 |
104.7 |
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Exceptionals |
|
|
(40,140.0) |
(188.0) |
(582.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
33,761.2 |
Profit before tax (norm) |
|
|
6,572.0 |
31,504.0 |
26,214.0 |
20,745.1 |
23,616.7 |
26,194.1 |
Profit before tax (reported) |
|
|
(33,568.0) |
31,316.0 |
25,632.0 |
20,745.1 |
23,616.7 |
59,955.3 |
Reported tax |
|
|
4,631.0 |
(6,845.0) |
(2,339.0) |
(5,186.3) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Profit after tax (norm) |
|
|
11,203.0 |
24,659.0 |
23,875.0 |
15,558.8 |
23,616.7 |
26,194.1 |
Profit after tax (reported) |
|
|
(28,937.0) |
24,471.0 |
23,293.0 |
20,745.1 |
23,616.7 |
59,955.3 |
Minority interests |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Discontinued operations |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Net income (normalised) |
|
|
11,203.0 |
24,659.0 |
23,875.0 |
15,558.8 |
23,616.7 |
26,194.1 |
Net income (reported) |
|
|
(28,937.0) |
24,471.0 |
23,293.0 |
20,745.1 |
23,616.7 |
59,955.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Basic average number of shares outstanding (m) |
|
503 |
506 |
506 |
506 |
506 |
520 |
EPS – basic normalised (c) |
|
|
0.02 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
0.03 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
EPS – diluted normalised (c) |
|
|
0.02 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
0.03 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
EPS – basic reported (c) |
|
|
(0.06) |
0.05 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.05 |
0.12 |
Dividend (c) |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue growth (%) |
|
|
N/A |
9.3 |
(28.2) |
(31.1) |
20.6 |
(4.0) |
Gross margin (%) |
|
|
51.5 |
60.2 |
41.9 |
58.2 |
52.3 |
58.8 |
EBITDA margin (%) |
|
|
41.9 |
52.3 |
32.9 |
44.9 |
41.1 |
46.8 |
Normalised operating margin (%) |
|
|
6.5 |
24.0 |
27.2 |
31.8 |
30.0 |
35.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fixed assets |
|
|
148,474.0 |
138,275.0 |
172,196.0 |
175,420.0 |
184,743.2 |
374,834.1 |
Intangible assets |
|
|
83,107.0 |
93,136.0 |
103,894.0 |
98,266.8 |
108,266.8 |
118,266.8 |
Tangible assets |
|
|
60,627.0 |
36,266.0 |
51,038.0 |
52,101.2 |
51,424.4 |
231,515.3 |
Investments & other |
|
|
4,740.0 |
8,873.0 |
17,264.0 |
25,052.0 |
25,052.0 |
25,052.0 |
Current assets |
|
|
54,276.0 |
93,306.0 |
76,501.0 |
57,633.9 |
70,188.6 |
55,168.7 |
Stocks |
|
|
9,644.0 |
19,153.0 |
4,816.0 |
2,444.8 |
2,947.7 |
2,828.8 |
Debtors |
|
|
2,445.0 |
2,030.0 |
1,998.0 |
5,238.8 |
6,316.5 |
6,061.6 |
Cash & cash equivalents |
|
|
41,969.0 |
72,003.0 |
69,582.0 |
49,345.3 |
59,819.4 |
45,173.4 |
Other |
|
|
218.0 |
120.0 |
105.0 |
605.0 |
1,105.0 |
1,105.0 |
Current liabilities |
|
|
(19,335.0) |
(27,430.0) |
(21,762.0) |
9,440.1 |
11,178.8 |
(7,894.3) |
Creditors |
|
|
(11,166.0) |
(9,299.0) |
(8,007.0) |
(2,191.6) |
(3,010.5) |
(2,500.1) |
Tax and social security |
|
|
0.0 |
(6,929.0) |
(9,317.0) |
(2,557.6) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Short-term borrowings |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Other |
|
|
(8,169.0) |
(11,202.0) |
(4,438.0) |
14,189.3 |
14,189.3 |
(5,394.2) |
Long-term liabilities |
|
|
18,488.0 |
13,647.0 |
13,059.0 |
13,059.0 |
13,059.0 |
(21,641.0) |
Long-term borrowings |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(34,700.0) |
Other long-term liabilities |
|
|
18,488.0 |
13,647.0 |
13,059.0 |
13,059.0 |
13,059.0 |
13,059.0 |
Net assets |
|
|
201,903.0 |
217,798.0 |
239,994.0 |
255,552.9 |
279,169.6 |
400,467.5 |
Minority interests |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
201,903.0 |
217,798.0 |
239,994.0 |
255,552.9 |
279,169.6 |
400,467.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating cash flow before WC and tax |
|
|
49,333.0 |
67,403.0 |
30,461.0 |
28,603.3 |
31,582.7 |
34,518.2 |
Working capital |
|
|
5,518.0 |
(9,498.0) |
(5,172.0) |
(6,685.0) |
(761.7) |
(136.5) |
Exceptional & other |
|
|
672.0 |
2,823.0 |
2,438.0 |
1,856.0 |
1,856.0 |
1,856.0 |
Tax |
|
|
0.0 |
(6,845.0) |
6,975.0 |
(11,945.7) |
(2,557.6) |
0.0 |
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
55,523.0 |
53,883.0 |
34,702.0 |
11,828.6 |
30,119.4 |
36,237.7 |
Capex |
|
|
(33,551.0) |
(9,224.0) |
(19,621.0) |
(11,270.8) |
(9,743.4) |
(190,375.8) |
Acquisitions/disposals |
|
|
53.0 |
0.0 |
4.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
54,540.0 |
Net interest |
|
|
(1,035.0) |
572.0 |
1,062.0 |
493.5 |
598.2 |
104.7 |
Equity financing |
|
|
3,471.0 |
(5.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
22,711.1 |
Exploration and Evaluation |
|
|
(10,154.0) |
(10,969.0) |
(11,578.0) |
(13,000.0) |
(10,000.0) |
(10,000.0) |
Other |
|
|
2,963.0 |
(4,317.0) |
(7,442.0) |
(8,288.0) |
(500.0) |
37,436.3 |
Net cash flow |
|
|
17,270.0 |
29,940.0 |
(2,873.0) |
(20,236.7) |
10,474.1 |
(49,346.0) |
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(24,455.0) |
(41,969.0) |
(72,003.0) |
(69,582.0) |
(49,345.3) |
(59,819.4) |
FX |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Other non-cash movements |
|
|
244.0 |
94.0 |
452.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(41,969.0) |
(72,003.0) |
(69,582.0) |
(49,345.3) |
(59,819.4) |
(10,473.4) |
Source: Alkane Resources, Edison Investment Research
General disclaimer and copyright This report has been commissioned by Alkane Resources and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Alkane Resources. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services. Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note. No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.
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General disclaimer and copyright This report has been commissioned by Alkane Resources and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Alkane Resources. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services. Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note. No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.
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United States The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. |
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