Alkane Resources — Production impresses at Tomingley

Alkane Resources (ASX: ALK)

Currency in AUD

Last close As at 26/01/2023

AUD0.68

−0.02 (−2.86%)

Market capitalisation

AUD428m

Research: Metals & Mining

Alkane Resources — Production impresses at Tomingley

Alkane upgraded its FY23 guidance for gold production from 55,000–60,000oz to 62,000–70,000oz on 5 January. This follows H123 production at Tomingley of 37,790oz. Alkane has lowered its expected unit costs, to AISC of A$1,550–1,800/oz, down from previous guidance of A$1,650–1,900/oz. Also, approval of the Tomingley Gold Expansion Project, expected in late December, has been deferred until early February.

Tom Batho

Written by

Tom Batho

Associate Analyst

Metals & Mining

Alkane Resources

Production impresses at Tomingley

Updated guidance

Metals and mining

6 January 2023

Price

A$0.58

Market cap

A$347m

A$1.4812/US$

Net cash (A$m) at 30 September 2022

78.2

Shares in issue

598.5m

Free float

76%

Code

ALK

Primary exchange

ASX

Secondary exchange

OTC QX

Share price performance

Business description

Alkane Resources has two main assets in Central West New South Wales: the Tomingley gold mine, where recent exploration has increased the mine life by at least eight years from FY23 to FY31, and its Northern Molong Porphyry project, which is shaping up to be a tier 1 alkalic porphyry district.

Analysts

Thomas Batho

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Lord Ashbourne

+44 (0)20 3077 5724

Alkane Resources is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Alkane upgraded its FY23 guidance for gold production from 55,000–60,000oz to 62,000–70,000oz on 5 January. This follows H123 production at Tomingley of 37,790oz. Alkane has lowered its expected unit costs, to AISC of A$1,550–1,800/oz, down from previous guidance of A$1,650–1,900/oz. Also, approval of the Tomingley Gold Expansion Project, expected in late December, has been deferred until early February.

Year end

Revenue
(A$m)

PBT*
(A$m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

06/21

127.8

46.3

5.35

0.00

10.8

N/A

06/22

165.0

52.1

3.68

0.00

15.7

N/A

06/23e

140.1

37.8

4.45

0.00

13.0

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items.

Alkane’s Tomingley gold mine produced 37,790oz in H123, ahead of expectations, which prompted the company to update its FY23 guidance to 62,000–70,000oz Au at an AISC of A$1,550–1,800/oz (previously 55,000–60,000oz Au at an AISC of A$1,650–1,900/oz). Furthermore, Alkane announced that its group unaudited cash, bullion and listed investments position, as of December 2022, totalled A$114.1m.

Alkane has two major near-term catalysts in prospect, namely approval of the Tomingley Gold Extension Project and for a maiden resource at its Kaiser prospect, north-west of Boda in the Northern Molong Porphyry Project. The former was expected to receive approval by the end of December 2022. With all information requested from Alkane now provided, the project remains under consideration by the Department of Planning and Environment. However, Alkane anticipates this approval by early February 2023 and the maiden resource at its Kaiser prospect is also expected in February.

The revised guidance for higher production and lower unit costs in FY23 is clearly positive news. At the time of our last note on Alkane, our valuation continued to be underpinned by Tomingley, which we estimated contributed A$0.57/share to Alkane’s valuation. Liquid assets in the form of Alkane’s holdings in Calidus and Genesis contributed a further A$0.06/share. Where before these had been the only two tangible contributors to Alkane’s valuation, they had, at that time, been joined by Boda, which we estimated was worth an immediate US$125.5m (or US$0.21/share or A$0.31/share) to Alkane, either as an in-situ resource or as a development project, albeit with the proviso that the project-based valuation would increase inexorably, both as a result of continued resource increases and upgrades, and as a result of Alkane’s de-risking the project by achieving future development milestones. As such, we calculated that Alkane’s share price was more than 100% covered by the value of tangible assets (compared to 56% previously), with up to A$0.59/share in additional upside available in the form of further exploration success in the Northern Molong Porphyry Project, as well as the ever-increasing probability of the Roswell underground extension project being sanctioned. We will review our forecasts in due course.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

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United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Alkane Resources and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Alkane Resources. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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