Sparks - The Metals Company

On 3 November, The Metals Company USA (TMC USA), a subsidiary of TMC, received a letter from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stating that NOAA expects to notify TMC USA by mid-December 2026 of its final determination on certification of TMC USA’s consolidated application for an exploration licence and a commercial recovery permit under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act.

Certification from NOAA should be a significant milestone as it includes all the elements of TMC’s application beyond the environmental impact study, including the nodule collection plan, financing plan and technical capabilities. With Q326 results due on 12 November, we await more detailed comments from TMC. We refer investors seeking a better understanding of TMC’s sensitivity to factors including discount rates, metal prices and project phasing to our September 2026 update note, Narrowing the NPV gap, which suggests that TMC moving into the first production phase, supported by a commercial recovery permit, ahead of system commissioning on schedule in Q427 would support our indicative valuation of $12.30/share. This value has the potential to be unlocked as TMC’s implied discount rate declines, driven by the achievement of various key milestones.