Last close As at 06/08/2026
—
— 0.00 (0.00%)
Market capitalisation
—
YouGov |
Products and Profiles |
Half-year pre-close update |
Media |
8 February 2016 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
YouGov is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
YouGov’s half-year pre-close statement confirms the group is trading well and in line with expectations. Our forecast is for revenue growth in the current financial year to July of 10% (the same for FY17), well ahead of forecast average growth from the quoted sector of 4-5%. Good progress is continuing across data products and services and the custom research business. Continued increases in higher-margin product, with the cash resource to fund the progress, underpins the forecast premium growth and, by extension, the rating.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
07/14 |
67.4 |
7.6 |
5.8 |
0.8 |
24.6 |
0.6 |
07/15 |
76.1 |
9.1 |
6.7 |
1.0 |
21.3 |
0.7 |
07/16e |
83.5 |
10.7 |
7.6 |
1.2 |
18.8 |
0.8 |
07/17e |
91.8 |
12.1 |
8.4 |
1.4 |
17.0 |
1.0 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Growth ahead of market
As is usual for YouGov at this juncture, there is no financial data in the brief update and we have made no adjustments to our forecasts for either FY16 or FY17. The strong top-line growth of both BrandIndex and Omnibus mean that together they should account for around one-third of FY16 group revenues, with the newer Profiles product also building as it establishes in key geographies. Custom Research revenue growth continues to outperform its market, albeit at a much lower growth rate than data products. The increasing proportion of revenue and contribution from Products and Services supports our modelled improvement in group operating margin in FY16 and FY17, which in turn drives the earnings growth towards the LTIP’s demanding targets. The LTIP triggers in full on achievement of 25% CAGR in earnings over five years to July 2019, with no grant at all for growth <10%, or if the operating margin fails to average more than 12% over the period (11.3% in FY15, 11.9% FY16e).
Cash to invest
YouGov has an inherently cash-generative business model, with the resultant funds invested in upgrading the products and services it provides to its clients, launching new initiatives and rolling out to new territories. It has also been investing in internal infrastructure to improve efficiency; moving some support functions to lower-cost locations, increasing process automation and adding cloud-based analytics.
Valuation: Price reflects premium growth
The share price picked up last summer, with a further fillip on the full year results in October, since when it has continued to outperform a falling market. YouGov’s shares are on an annualised CY16e EV/EBITDA of 12.4x, comfortably ahead of the sector on 10.0x. With continued good trading momentum leading to revenue and earnings growth clearly well above sector forecasts, and a progressive dividend, this premium over the sector is clearly justified.
Financial summary
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£'000s |
2014 |
2015 |
2016e |
2017e |
||
Year end 31 July |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
67,375 |
76,110 |
83,500 |
91,800 |
Cost of Sales |
(15,812) |
(17,472) |
(18,788) |
(20,196) |
||
Gross Profit |
51,564 |
58,638 |
64,713 |
71,604 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
8,020 |
9,273 |
10,646 |
11,826 |
Operating Profit (before GW, except and share-based payments) |
7,936 |
9,239 |
10,843 |
12,223 |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
(3,965) |
(4,633) |
(4,633) |
(4,633) |
||
Share based payments |
(547) |
(669) |
(900) |
(1,100) |
||
Exceptionals |
(2,385) |
(1,072) |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(14) |
41 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
1,025 |
2,906 |
5,310 |
6,490 |
||
Net Interest |
(292) |
(220) |
(143) |
(123) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
7,630 |
9,060 |
10,700 |
12,100 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
733 |
2,686 |
5,167 |
6,367 |
Tax |
(316) |
580 |
(2,461) |
(2,965) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
7,314 |
9,640 |
8,239 |
9,136 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
417 |
3,266 |
2,504 |
3,403 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
98.0 |
101.0 |
103.9 |
104.3 |
||
EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) |
|
|
5.8 |
6.7 |
7.6 |
8.4 |
EPS - FRS 3 (p) |
|
|
0.4 |
3.2 |
2.4 |
3.2 |
Dividend per share (p) |
0.8 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
76.5 |
77.0 |
77.5 |
78.0 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
11.9 |
12.2 |
12.8 |
12.9 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except & share-based payments) (%) |
11.0 |
11.3 |
11.9 |
12.1 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
52,259 |
53,726 |
52,427 |
52,427 |
Intangible Assets |
46,650 |
46,145 |
46,000 |
46,000 |
||
Tangible Assets |
5,609 |
7,377 |
6,223 |
6,223 |
||
Investments |
0 |
204 |
204 |
204 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
29,873 |
33,329 |
37,594 |
42,524 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
21,687 |
22,507 |
24,692 |
27,418 |
||
Cash |
7,429 |
10,017 |
12,145 |
14,552 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(21,480) |
(22,983) |
(25,215) |
(27,447) |
Creditors |
(21,296) |
(22,983) |
(25,215) |
(27,447) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(184) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(2,700) |
(2,449) |
(3,500) |
(3,250) |
Long term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(2,700) |
(2,449) |
(3,500) |
(3,250) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
57,952 |
61,623 |
61,307 |
64,254 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
8,600 |
10,091 |
11,000 |
12,000 |
Net Interest |
(295) |
(233) |
(143) |
(123) |
||
Tax |
(287) |
(730) |
(2,106) |
(2,587) |
||
Capex |
(5,759) |
(5,754) |
(5,500) |
(5,500) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(1,003) |
(470) |
0 |
(36) |
||
Financing |
(101) |
454 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(566) |
(773) |
(1,123) |
(1,347) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
589 |
2,585 |
2,128 |
2,407 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(6,656) |
(7,245) |
(10,017) |
(12,145) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
187 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(7,245) |
(10,017) |
(12,145) |
(14,552) |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|