Utilitywise
Written by
Utilitywise |
On course to meet expectations for FY16 |
FY16 interim results |
Industrial support services |
29 April 2016 |
Share price performance
Business description
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Analysts
Utilitywise is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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In H116 Utilitywise (UTW) again posted strong growth and is on target to meet market expectations for FY16. We expect further growth in H2 and beyond and our valuation analysis indicates potential upside in the shares.
Year end |
Revenue |
EBITDA |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
07/14 |
48.9 |
14.5 |
14.6 |
4.0 |
11.7 |
2.3 |
07/15 |
69.1 |
17.8 |
17.9 |
5.0 |
9.6 |
2.9 |
07/16e |
93.3 |
20.7 |
18.9 |
6.0 |
9.0 |
3.5 |
07/17e |
104.9 |
23.9 |
23.3 |
7.0 |
7.3 |
4.1 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Underlying growth
UTW’s H116 results extended its record of growth, with revenue +36% and reported adjusted EBITDA +15% to £9.7m. The DPS was also increased by 29% to 2.2p. A number of the key business metrics also demonstrated positive year-on-year momentum with customer numbers of 29,288 (vs 22,048 at 31 January 2015) and revenue pipeline of £24.7m (vs £23.5m at 31 January 2015). These underlying figures exclude a net positive exceptional credit of £4.1m, reflecting, in large part, the release of deferred consideration that UTW had expected to pay to the vendors of t-mac of £5.7m, less a goodwill impairment charge of £1.3m also relating to
t-mac. Although t-mac (part of the Corporate division) grew revenue by £2.2m in H1 (EBITDA £0.3m), management now expects that the revenue streams and profits required to trigger the payment of the deferred consideration will lie beyond the earnout period.
Outlook for continuing growth in H2 and beyond
The management believes that UTW will post an improved performance in H2 and that it remains on track to deliver revenue and EBITDA margins in line with market expectations. Our EBITDA forecast for FY16 remains broadly unchanged, although it now reflects lower gross margins but lower administrative costs. We have increased our FY16 DPS forecast to 6p (was 5.8p). Despite high attrition rates among energy consultants and some margin pressure (in part from changing business mix), the outlook beyond H2 appears positive. UTW has been able to reduce the proportion of extension business from 42% in FY15, to 23% in H116, has announced the amendment of payment terms with another energy supplier in relation to future contracts and historic accrued revenue, and continues to bolster its management. The company has identified a new CEO to replace Geoff Thompson, who will become executive chairman.
Valuation: Continuing growth points to upside
Peer group multiples indicate a valuation of c 225p for UTW. Longer-term approaches (DCF/transaction multiples) give a higher value of c 299p a share (DCF 330p + transaction 265p). The DCF valuation is sensitive to the assumptions used for terminal growth. An assumption of 2% growth yields a valuation of c 330p, while a terminal growth rate of 0% would reduce the valuation to 256p.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
|
£000s |
2014 |
2015 |
2016e |
2017e |
31st July |
|
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
PROFIT & LOSS |
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue |
|
48,947 |
69,106 |
93,306 |
104,921 |
Cost of Sales |
|
(26,586) |
(38,810) |
(55,984) |
(61,903) |
Gross Profit |
|
22,361 |
30,296 |
37,322 |
43,018 |
EBITDA |
|
14,467 |
17,785 |
20,722 |
23,918 |
Operating Profit (before amort and except) |
13,751 |
16,920 |
19,930 |
23,012 |
|
Intangible Amortisation |
|
(946) |
(1,297) |
(1,410) |
(1,963) |
Exceptionals |
|
(22) |
(570) |
4,055 |
0 |
Share Based Payments |
|
(737) |
(695) |
(720) |
(756) |
Other |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Operating Profit |
|
12,046 |
14,357 |
21,855 |
20,293 |
Net Interest |
|
(373) |
(235) |
(685) |
(651) |
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
13,379 |
16,685 |
19,245 |
22,361 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
11,673 |
14,123 |
21,170 |
19,642 |
Tax |
|
(2,170) |
(2,927) |
(4,446) |
(3,928) |
Profit After Tax (norm) |
|
11,208 |
13,758 |
14,799 |
18,432 |
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
|
9,503 |
11,196 |
16,724 |
15,714 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
72.5 |
75.3 |
77.3 |
78.0 |
|
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
15.4 |
18.3 |
19.1 |
23.6 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) |
|
14.6 |
17.9 |
18.9 |
23.3 |
EPS - (IFRS) (p) |
|
13.0 |
14.9 |
21.6 |
20.1 |
Dividend per share (p) |
|
4.0 |
5.0 |
6.0 |
7.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross Margin (%) |
|
45.7 |
43.8 |
40.0 |
41.0 |
EBITDA Margin (%) |
|
29.6 |
25.7 |
22.2 |
22.8 |
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
28.1 |
24.5 |
21.4 |
21.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
Fixed Assets |
|
36,975 |
66,048 |
68,909 |
73,233 |
Intangible Assets |
|
21,926 |
37,171 |
34,675 |
32,712 |
Tangible Assets |
|
4,838 |
5,899 |
5,773 |
5,532 |
Investments & Other |
|
10,211 |
22,978 |
28,461 |
34,989 |
Current Assets |
|
30,436 |
23,075 |
41,692 |
47,098 |
Stocks |
|
98 |
643 |
927 |
1,025 |
Debtors |
|
13,958 |
15,939 |
27,363 |
30,289 |
Cash |
|
15,823 |
6,492 |
13,401 |
15,784 |
Other |
|
557 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Current Liabilities |
|
(18,315) |
(18,420) |
(24,549) |
(22,549) |
Creditors |
|
(18,315) |
(18,420) |
(20,549) |
(22,549) |
Short term borrowings |
|
0 |
0 |
(4,000) |
0 |
Long Term Liabilities |
|
(15,494) |
(24,581) |
(26,226) |
(26,948) |
Long term borrowings |
|
(6,000) |
(13,175) |
(13,175) |
(13,175) |
Other long term liabilities |
|
(9,494) |
(11,406) |
(13,051) |
(13,773) |
Net Assets |
|
33,602 |
46,121 |
59,825 |
70,834 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
Operating Cash Flow |
|
11,615 |
(2,567) |
12,222 |
16,449 |
Net Interest |
|
(373) |
(235) |
(685) |
(651) |
Tax |
|
(1,910) |
(2,208) |
(4,446) |
(3,928) |
Capex |
|
(631) |
(1,882) |
(894) |
(665) |
Acquisitions/disposals |
|
(835) |
(6,398) |
0 |
0 |
Financing |
|
101 |
149 |
940 |
0 |
Dividends |
|
(2,158) |
(3,365) |
(4,228) |
(4,821) |
Net Cash Flow |
|
5,810 |
(16,506) |
2,909 |
6,383 |
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
(4,013) |
(9,823) |
6,683 |
3,774 |
HP finance leases initiated |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Other |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
(9,823) |
6,683 |
3,774 |
(2,609) |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
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