Games Workshop Group — Upgrading forecast for FY22 cash returns

Games Workshop Group (LSE: GAW)

Currency in GBP

Last close As at 26/01/2023

GBP91.45

−185.00 (−1.98%)

Market capitalisation

GBP3,070m

Research: Consumer

Games Workshop Group — Upgrading forecast for FY22 cash returns

Games Workshop Group’s (GAW’s) Q322 trading update (to the end of February), which indicates that trading is in line with expectations, is reassuring given the incremental cost pressures (including freight) highlighted in the H122 results. We believe the company’s cash position is better than we expected given the declaration of a further dividend (70p/share), taking the cumulative (financial) year to date total to 235p/share. We make no changes to our forecasts beyond increasing our FY22 dividend estimate to 235p/share, a flat dividend versus FY21. The share price weakness means that the P/E multiples for FY22e (19.3x) and FY23e (18.7x) are below more recent non-COVID affected peak multiples.

Russell Pointon

Written by

Russell Pointon

Director, Consumer

Consumer

Games Workshop Group

Upgrading forecast for FY22 cash returns

Q322 trading and dividend

Consumer goods

24 March 2022

Price

7,120p

Market cap

£2,335m

Net debt (£m) at 28 November 2021 (excluding lease liabilities)

88.6

Shares in issue

32.8m

Free float

100

Code

GAW

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(3.7)

(29.0)

(24.6)

Rel (local)

(3.4)

(28.4)

(30.7)

52-week high/low

12,220p

6,365p

Business description

Games Workshop Group is a leading international specialist designer, manufacturer and multi-channel retailer of miniatures, scenery, artwork and fiction for tabletop miniature games set in its fantasy Warhammer worlds.

Next events

FY22 trading update

June 2022

FY22 results

August 2022

Analysts

Russell Pointon

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Sara Welford

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Games Workshop Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Games Workshop Group’s (GAW’s) Q322 trading update (to the end of February), which indicates that trading is in line with expectations, is reassuring given the incremental cost pressures (including freight) highlighted in the H122 results. We believe the company’s cash position is better than we expected given the declaration of a further dividend (70p/share), taking the cumulative (financial) year to date total to 235p/share. We make no changes to our forecasts beyond increasing our FY22 dividend estimate to 235p/share, a flat dividend versus FY21. The share price weakness means that the P/E multiples for FY22e (19.3x) and FY23e (18.7x) are below more recent non-COVID affected peak multiples.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

05/20

269.7

89.4

217.8

145.0

32.7

2.0

05/21

353.2

150.9

370.5

235.0

19.2

3.3

05/22e

377.8

158.2

386.5

235.0

18.4

3.3

05/23e

403.7

163.5

398.3

275.0

17.9

3.9

Note: *PBT and EPS (fully diluted) are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

FY22 dividend forecast upgraded

GAW’s dividend policy is to distribute ‘truly surplus’ cash, and it typically declares a number of dividends through the financial year as visibility on what is truly surplus improves. The dividend of 70p/share declared today takes the cumulative (financial) year to date dividend to 235p/share, equivalent to the total declared for the whole of FY21 and more than 185p/share at this stage last year. After the H122 results, we reduced our dividend forecasts for FY22 (from 250p/share to 220p/share) to reflect potential delays in tax refunds (new import VAT that is paid post Brexit as goods enter the EU) from a couple of countries. We increase out FY22 dividend forecast to 235p/share, but make no changes to our revenue and profit estimates for FY22 and FY23.

Valuation: DCF-based valuation remains £134/share

The share price weakness has reduced the P/E multiples for FY22e and FY23e to 19.3x and 18.7x, respectively, versus the non-COVID affected peak multiple (FY19) of 22.7x. Our DCF-based valuation of £134/share is unchanged given there is no change to our profit estimates.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

Year-end May

£m

 

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022e

2023e

 

 

 

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

 

119.1

118.1

158.1

221.3

256.6

269.7

353.2

377.8

403.7

Cost of sales

 

 

(37.0)

(37.4)

(43.7)

(64.2)

(83.3)

(89.1)

(96.3)

(117.1)

(125.1)

Gross profit

 

 

82.1

80.6

114.4

157.1

173.3

180.6

256.9

260.7

278.5

SG&A (expenses)

 

 

(67.2)

(69.7)

(83.6)

(92.4)

(103.4)

(107.4)

(121.5)

(128.8)

(131.4)

Other operating income/(expense)

 

 

1.5

5.9

7.5

9.6

11.4

16.8

16.3

27.0

17.0

Exceptionals and adjustments

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

EBITDA (excluding royalties)

 

 

26.0

21.3

41.8

76.8

85.7

98.8

162.0

159.0

175.6

EBITDA

 

 

27.5

27.3

49.3

86.5

97.1

115.6

178.3

186.0

192.6

Depreciation and amortisation

 

 

(11.1)

(10.4)

(11.0)

(12.1)

(15.9)

(25.6)

(26.6)

(27.1)

(28.4)

Operating profit (before royalties and exceptionals)

 

14.9

10.9

30.8

64.7

69.8

73.2

135.4

131.9

147.1

Reported operating profit

 

 

16.5

16.9

38.3

74.3

81.2

90.0

151.7

158.9

164.1

Finance income/(expense)

 

 

0.1

0.1

0.1

(0.0)

0.1

(0.6)

(0.8)

(0.7)

(0.7)

Reported PBT

 

 

16.6

16.9

38.4

74.3

81.3

89.4

150.9

158.2

163.5

Income tax expense (includes exceptionals)

 

 

(4.3)

(3.5)

(7.9)

(14.8)

(15.5)

(18.1)

(28.9)

(30.5)

(31.5)

Adjusted net income

 

 

12.2

13.5

30.5

59.5

65.8

71.3

122.0

127.6

131.9

Reported net income

 

 

12.3

13.5

30.5

59.5

65.8

71.3

122.0

127.6

131.9

WASC (m)

 

 

31.975

32.093

32.126

32.258

32.438

32.602

32.733

32.827

32.928

Diluted average number of shares (m)

 

 

32.025

32.150

32.325

32.732

32.785

32.736

32.927

33.021

33.122

Reported EPS (p)

 

 

38.3

42.1

95.1

184.3

202.9

218.7

372.7

388.8

400.6

Reported diluted EPS (p)

 

 

38.3

42.0

94.5

181.6

200.8

217.8

370.5

386.5

398.3

Adjusted diluted EPS (p)

 

 

38.1

42.0

94.5

181.6

200.8

217.8

370.5

386.5

398.3

DPS (p)

 

 

52.0

40.0

74.0

126.0

155.0

145.0

235.0

235.0

275.0

Gross margin

 

 

69.0%

68.3%

72.4%

71.0%

67.5%

67.0%

72.7%

69.0%

69.0%

EBITDA margin (excl royalties)

 

 

21.8%

18.1%

26.5%

34.7%

33.4%

36.6%

45.9%

42.1%

43.5%

EBITDA margin (incl royalties)

 

 

23.1%

23.1%

31.2%

39.1%

37.8%

42.9%

50.5%

49.2%

47.7%

Operating margin (before royalties and exceptionals)

 

 

12.5%

9.2%

19.5%

29.2%

27.2%

27.1%

38.3%

34.9%

36.5%

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Property, plant and equipment

 

 

22.7

22.6

22.1

30.1

35.3

42.0

49.8

58.7

67.6

Right-of-use assets

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

31.9

46.0

45.0

44.0

Goodwill

 

 

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

Intangible assets

 

 

8.3

10.5

12.9

14.2

16.0

17.6

23.7

29.8

35.5

Other non-current assets

 

 

4.8

4.1

6.5

7.8

11.7

16.4

16.4

16.4

16.4

Total non-current assets

 

 

37.2

38.7

43.0

53.5

64.4

109.3

137.3

151.3

164.9

Cash and equivalents

 

 

12.6

11.8

17.9

28.5

29.4

52.9

85.2

118.8

143.6

Inventories

 

 

7.6

8.5

12.4

20.2

24.2

20.7

27.5

33.4

35.7

Trade and other receivables

 

 

9.4

10.1

13.0

15.5

18.8

19.6

30.6

32.7

35.0

Other current assets

 

 

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.8

0.2

1.1

1.1

1.1

Total current assets

 

 

30.2

31.2

43.9

64.7

73.2

93.4

144.4

186.1

215.4

Trade and other payables

 

 

(13.1)

(12.8)

(16.5)

(20.3)

(19.2)

(30.3)

(35.4)

(40.8)

(42.5)

Borrowings

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Leases

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(8.3)

(8.6)

(8.6)

(8.6)

Other current liabilities

 

 

(2.0)

(2.7)

(6.5)

(7.3)

(10.1)

(4.5)

(0.7)

(0.7)

(0.7)

Total current liabilities

 

 

(15.1)

(15.6)

(23.0)

(27.6)

(29.3)

(43.1)

(44.7)

(50.1)

(51.8)

Borrowings

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Leases

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(23.8)

(38.4)

(37.0)

(35.6)

Other non-current liabilities

 

 

(0.8)

(1.1)

(1.0)

(1.2)

(1.9)

(2.1)

(2.3)

(2.3)

(2.3)

Total non-current liabilities

 

 

(0.8)

(1.1)

(1.0)

(1.2)

(1.9)

(25.9)

(40.7)

(39.3)

(37.9)

Net assets

 

 

51.5

53.2

62.8

89.3

106.5

133.7

196.3

248.0

290.6

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EBIT

 

 

16.5

16.9

38.3

74.3

81.2

90.0

151.7

158.9

164.1

Depreciation and amortisation

 

 

11.1

10.4

10.2

12.2

15.9

25.0

26.2

27.1

28.4

Impairments

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.8

(0.0)

0.0

0.6

0.4

0.0

0.0

Share-based payments

 

 

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.5

1.2

1.2

1.2

Other adjustments

 

 

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.0

Movements in working capital

 

 

(2.3)

(0.8)

(0.2)

(4.4)

(9.0)

10.8

(14.8)

(2.7)

(2.8)

Income taxes paid

 

 

(2.3)

(2.6)

(5.5)

(12.2)

(16.3)

(22.7)

(32.1)

(30.5)

(31.5)

Operating cash flow

 

 

23.3

24.2

43.9

70.1

72.5

104.5

132.7

154.0

159.4

Net capex and intangibles

 

 

(12.3)

(12.7)

(12.8)

(21.6)

(22.5)

(24.6)

(30.0)

(31.1)

(32.0)

Net interest

 

 

0.1

0.1

0.1

(0.0)

0.1

0.1

0.2

(0.7)

(0.7)

Net proceeds from issue of shares

 

 

0.7

0.3

0.1

0.9

0.7

0.8

1.4

0.0

0.0

Dividends paid

 

 

(16.6)

(12.8)

(23.8)

(38.7)

(50.3)

(47.3)

(60.5)

(77.1)

(90.6)

Other financing activities

 

 

0.0

0.0

(1.9)

0.0

0.0

(10.3)

(10.9)

(11.4)

(11.4)

Net cash flow

 

 

(4.8)

(0.9)

5.5

10.7

0.5

23.2

32.9

33.6

24.8

Opening cash and cash equivalents

 

 

17.6

12.6

11.8

17.9

28.5

29.4

52.9

85.2

118.8

Currency translation differences and other

 

 

(0.2)

0.1

0.6

(0.1)

0.3

0.3

(0.6)

0.0

0.0

Closing cash and cash equivalents

 

 

12.6

11.8

17.9

28.5

29.4

52.9

85.2

118.8

143.6

Closing net cash (including leases)

 

 

12.6

11.8

17.9

28.5

29.4

20.8

38.2

73.2

99.4

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Games Workshop Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Games Workshop Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

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This report has been commissioned by Games Workshop Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Games Workshop Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

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3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Doctor Care Anywhere Group — Growth company focused on profitability

Doctor Care Anywhere Group (DOC) is a fast-growing telehealth company focused on the private healthcare sector. Following its successful IPO in December 2020, the group delivered a strong performance in its first year of trading and achieved several of the goals set out in its prospectus. At the end of 2021, management outlined its plan for profitable growth, underpinned by its new operating model and updated master services agreement with AXA Health. We have reflected this in our updated forecasts, where we expect DOC to generate positive EBITDA for H223.

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