Games Workshop Group

LN: GAW

Market Cap£3439m

Last Close 10490p

Games Workshop is a leading international specialist designer, manufacturer and multi-channel retailer of miniatures, scenery, artwork and fiction for tabletop miniature games set in its fantasy Warhammer worlds.

Investment summary

Games Workshop’s (GAW’s) trading update indicated sales growth for Q122 (three months to 29 August 2021) was in line with management’s expectations. In the comparative period, revenue grew by 15%, and accelerated to c 38% growth in Q221 and 37% in H221, due to the launch of the ninth edition of 40K in July 2020, therefore revenue growth in Q122 is encouraging against the strong performance last year. Management highlighted pressure on freight costs and currency exchange rates given GAW’s high international exposure. The declared dividend of 25p per share brought the year-to-date total to 65p. Our forecasts for FY22 and FY23 are unchanged. Our DCF-based valuation remains £129 per share.

Y/E May	Revenue (£m)	EBITDA (£m)	PBT (£m)	EPS (fd) (p)	P/E (x)	P/CF (x)
2020A	269.7	115.6	89.4	217.8	48.2	32.9
2021A	353.2	178.3	150.9	370.5	28.3	25.8
2022E	376.9	185.9	158.1	387.1	27.1	22.5
2023E	395.3	192.5	163.4	398.8	26.3	21.6

Industry outlook

Games Workshop is the global leader for tabletop miniature gaming, a market it created. Tabletop miniature gaming is the fastest-growing segment of the global non-digital games market, which is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9% between 2017 and 2023 and reach a value exceeding $12bn.

Last updated on 20/10/2021