Ultimovacs — Universal approach with critical readouts in March

Ultimovacs (OSE: ULTI)

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Research: Healthcare

Ultimovacs — Universal approach with critical readouts in March

Ultimovacs recapped an active FY23 period for its universal cancer vaccine, UV1, including the reported benefit in overall survival and desirable safety profile from the NIPU trial in malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM), which sets the stage for its Phase III programme. Management provided multiple updates across all its trials, but the upcoming combination trial result of INITIUM in malignant melanoma (confirmed for March 2024) remains a critical catalyst. FY23 cash stood at NOK266.6m, which is anticipated to fund operations through 2024. As we roll forward our model with FX updates, our valuation increases to NOK8.5bn or NOK248 per share (from NOK7.6bn or NOK222 per share).

Soo Romanoff

Written by

Soo Romanoff

Managing Director - Head of Content, Healthcare

Healthcare

Ultimovacs

Universal approach with critical readouts in March

FY23 update

Pharma and biotech

16 February 2024

Price

NOK137.80

Market cap

NOK4,740m

NOK10.61/US$

Net cash (NOKm) at end-December 2023 (excluding leases)

266.6

Shares in issue

34.4m

Free float

53%

Code

ULTI

Primary exchange

Oslo Stock Exchange

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(4.4)

24.5

0.1

Rel (local)

(5.6)

20.7

(0.4)

52-week high/low

NOK148

NOK68

Business description

Ultimovacs is developing novel immunotherapies against cancer. Its lead product candidate, UV1, is a peptide-based vaccine against the universal cancer antigen telomerase (hTERT), which is expressed in c 85–90% of all cancer types. UV1 therefore has broad potential in a variety of different settings and combinations.

Next events

Phase II INITIUM top-line data

March 2024

Phase II FOCUS top-line data

H224

Analysts

Soo Romanoff

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dr Arron Aatkar

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Jitisha Malhotra

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Ultimovacs is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Ultimovacs recapped an active FY23 period for its universal cancer vaccine, UV1, including the reported benefit in overall survival and desirable safety profile from the NIPU trial in malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM), which sets the stage for its Phase III programme. Management provided multiple updates across all its trials, but the upcoming combination trial result of INITIUM in malignant melanoma (confirmed for March 2024) remains a critical catalyst. FY23 cash stood at NOK266.6m, which is anticipated to fund operations through 2024. As we roll forward our model with FX updates, our valuation increases to NOK8.5bn or NOK248 per share (from NOK7.6bn or NOK222 per share).

Year
end

Revenue
(NOKm)

PBT*
(NOKm)

EPS**
(NOK)

DPS
(NOK)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/22

0.0

(167.8)

(4.90)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/23

0.0

(189.2)

(5.50)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/24e

0.0

(225.8)

(6.56)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/25e

1,212.3

1,080.7

31.41

0.0

4.36

N/A

Note: *PBT is reported. **EPS is fully diluted.

Key upcoming catalyst: UV1 in malignant melanoma

The Phase II INITIUM trial is evaluating UV1 in combination with ipilimumab and nivolumab (IPI-NIVO) in malignant melanoma; top-line results are expected to be a significant catalyst for Ultimovacs. The trial timelines were previously pushed back multiple times due to patients taking longer than anticipated to experience disease progression, which can be a positive observation in oncology as overall survival remains the gold standard. However, following a trial amendment enabling data analysis to be conducted once the last enrolled patient had been followed for 18 months, the announcement of these results has been confirmed for March 2024. If positive, it will be the first case of an off-the-shelf cancer vaccine showing additional clinical benefit in a randomised trial for malignant melanoma, to our knowledge, and would be a foundational milestone in consideration for incremental indications and settings, as a universal vaccine that is checkpoint inhibitor agnostic.

Cash runway: Funded past key upcoming readouts

The company reported a net cash position of NOK266.6m at end-Q423, down from NOK300.3m at end-Q323, which management estimates provides a cash runway through 2024 and through top-line readouts from the INITIUM and FOCUS trials. We further expect to see progress on the licensing front in this time frame, predicated on positive clinical results.

Valuation: NOK8.5bn or NOK248 per share

We value Ultimovacs at NOK8.5bn or NOK248 per share (from NOK7.6bn or NOK222 per share previously), including a net cash position of NOK266.6m at end-FY23. The higher valuation is largely due to the model roll forward and positive FX impact, slightly offset by a reduction in net cash over Q423. We keep our long-term assumptions unchanged at this stage and await the INTIUM readout in March.

In the pipeline: Four upcoming readouts for UV1

Ultimovacs is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on investigating its lead cancer vaccine, UV1, in combination with various immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) across multiple cancer indications. As part of the company’s year-end results, management shared an overview of the five Phase II trials (Exhibit 1).

Exhibit 1: Summary of Ultimovacs’ Phase II clinical trials for UV1

Source: Ultimovacs Q423 results presentation

All eyes on UV1 in malignant melanoma (INITIUM)…

Malignant melanoma is Ultimovacs’ lead indication for UV1 and, as the Phase II INITIUM trial results are expected in March 2024, we believe this represents the most significant upcoming catalyst for the company as this would be a major win for a universal off-the-shelf vaccine in addressing a challenging indication. As a reminder, guided timelines for INITIUM top-line results were pushed back multiple times due to patients taking longer than expected to experience disease progression. While this may often be considered an encouraging sign for patients and the outcome of the trial, we note that this is not assured, for example if the observation was driven by the control arm performing better than anticipated. In October 2023, management confirmed that it had amended the study protocol to ensure no further delays to these readouts. The original trial protocol specified that data analysis would begin after the observation of disease progression in 70 of 156 patients (referred to as the number of endpoints). Regulatory authorities subsequently agreed that the data analysis could be conducted after a minimum follow-up period of 18 months for all evaluable patients. In mid-January 2024, management confirmed that while 70 progression events had not yet occurred, the 18-month follow-up point had been reached for the last enrolled patient, and that the results would be reported in March 2024. Importantly, we note that the amendment is not expected to have an impact on the integrity of the statistical analysis planned for this study, which remains set up with 80% statistical power.

…with planned supplementary study for additional insights

In November 2023, Ultimovacs announced it had completed patient enrolment for a planned supplementary study (n=21) to INITIUM. This is intended to investigate the biological activity and mode of action of T-cells induced by UV1. All 21 malignant melanoma patients enrolled had completed treatment with UV1 in combination with IPI-NIVO as part of the main INITIUM Phase II clinical trial. The additional research aims to assess the ability of UV1 in improving overall immune responses, as well as its ability to enhance the responsiveness of ICIs, such as ipilimumab and nivolumab. We note that while the data analysis for this supplementary study will take place in parallel with the main INITIUM analysis, the results will be shared at a later date. In our view, this supplementary study could strengthen the foundation for discussions with potential partners, and may lead regulators to view the growing data package for UV1 more favourably.

…backed by Phase I data and regulatory designations

Alongside the ongoing Phase II trial, Ultimovacs is also assessing the combination of UV1 with pembrolizumab in patients with unresectable or metastatic melanoma in Phase I (UV1-103), for which the three-year survival data was encouraging, in our view. This corresponds to the full patient population (n=30) for UV1-103, which comprises two patient cohorts whereby the only difference between the two is in the dose of vaccine adjuvant GM-CSF (cohort 1: 37.5 µg, n=20; cohort 2: 70 µg, n=10). At a median follow-up of 47.8 months, median progression-free survival (PFS) was 18.9 months and median overall survival (OS) had not yet been reached (Exhibit 2). The objective response rate was 57%, with 33% achieving a complete response (defined as disappearance of tumours). We also note that there have been no confirmed patient deaths since the three-year follow-up point for this cohort. In our view, this data demonstrates the durable efficacy of UV1 in combination with pembrolizumab. While we caution against direct read across and acknowledge differences in study design, we highlight that pembrolizumab alone showed an OS rate of 51% in the registrational KEYNOTE-006 study (advanced melanoma).

We note that patients included in cohort 1 have now been followed for four years, and of the 17 who agreed to long-term follow-ups, one patient could not be reached temporarily, so their status is pending. By a conservative approach, 11 of 16 patients were confirmed alive after four years. Management has communicated that four-year survival data from both cohorts will be reported in Q224; we believe the encouraging interim results to date may be a sign of promising things to come with INITIUM. However, we caution against direct read across between clinical trials and note that there are differences in design and the precise target patient populations. Mainly, UV1-103 is assessing UV1 in combination with pembrolizumab, whereas INITIUM is assessing UV1 with IPI-NIVO.

Exhibit 2: OS data for the UV1-103 study

Source: Ultimovacs Q423 results presentation

On the regulatory front, we note that the potential of UV1 has been supported with regulatory designations. In October 2021, the FDA granted Fast Track designation to UV1 as an add-on therapy to ICIs for the treatment of unresectable or metastatic melanoma. In December 2021, the FDA granted Orphan Drug designation (ODD) to UV1 for the treatment of stage IIB–V melanoma.

Other Phase II trials on the horizon

In Ultimovacs’ FY23 results presentation, management provided an overview and guided timelines for the UV1 Phase II trials, including updated guidance for the last two programmes:

FOCUS (head and neck squamous cell carcinoma): in August 2023, Ultimovacs announced patient enrolment had been completed for this trial. Top-line results, including PFS and OS endpoints after a minimum 12 months of follow-up, are expected in H224, consistent with prior guided timelines.

DOVACC (ovarian cancer): in the company’s FY23 report, management communicated that top-line results are now expected in H125, slightly later than the prior guided timeline of H224. The DOVACC trial has now enrolled 75/184 patients (up from 46/184 reported in the company’s Q323 results).

LUNGVAC (non-small cell lung cancer): in the company’s FY23 report, management communicated that top-line results are now expected in H126, later than the prior guided timeline of H225. The LUNGVAC trial has now enrolled 23/138 patients (up from 13/138 reported in the company’s Q323 results).

One out of five complete: UV1 in mesothelioma (NIPU)

The Phase II NIPU trial (n=118) was a randomised, multi-centre study to investigate UV1 in combination with IPI-NIVO as a potential second-line treatment in patients with relapsed/refractory (r/r) MPM. This is an aggressive cancer type with a high mortality rate, few therapeutic options in first-line treatment (platinum and pemetrexed chemotherapy, or IPI-NIVO as of October 2020) and no established standard of care in the second-line setting. Initial clinical results were reported in June 2023 and were initially perceived negatively as the trial did not meet its primary endpoint of PFS. However, despite the lack of significance in the initial results, management was encouraged by the trends in OS benefit in the UV1 treatment arm.

Detailed results from NIPU were shared in October 2023. The results showed a reduced risk of death by 27% with UV1 in combination with IPI-NIVO, compared to IPI-NIVO alone. OS was recorded as 15.4 months in the UV1 arm versus 11.1 months in the control arm, marking a key highlight of the results, in our view, as OS is regarded as the gold standard of endpoints in oncology clinical trials. In addition, a blinded independent central review (BICR) assessed the objective response rates from the trial data, defined as a tumour reduction of at least 30%. The objective response rate was measured as 31% for the UV1 treatment arm, approximately twice that of the control arm where the objective response rate was measured as 16% (Exhibit 3). Collectively, we believe the clinically meaningful results, per these measures, warrant further clinical development in this indication. For a more detailed discussion of the NIPU trial results, we direct readers to our November update note.

Exhibit 3: Overall response rate data for the NIPU study (per BICR)

Source: Ultimovacs Q423 results presentation

In October 2023, the FDA granted ODD to UV1 for the treatment of mesothelioma based on the NIPU results. Further, in February 2024, Ultimovacs announced that the FDA had also granted Fast Track designation to UV1 in combination with IPI-NIVO for the treatment of patients with unresectable MPM to improve overall survival. Importantly, the Fast Track designation includes the use of UV1 in the first-line setting. Collectively, these regulatory designations mark important recognition of the potential efficacy of UV1 in this indication, in our view, and provide a strong foundation for further clinical development efforts. Management is evaluating the best way to optimise the potential for UV1 in patients with mesothelioma and we believe this could include a Phase III programme focused on the first-line setting, which would represent a greater commercial opportunity than later line settings; we expect an update from management on this front once more material decisions have been made.

Cancer vaccines in the headlines

Cancer vaccines have been in the headlines recently due to movements from big pharma in this space. Merck and Moderna’s mRNA-4157/V940 vaccine has dominated attention. This is of particular relevance to Ultimovacs as it is targeting the treatment of stage III–IV melanoma in combination with pembrolizumab. Notably, in December 2022, the clinical data (from the Phase IIb KEYNOTE-942 trial) showed that the combination reduced the risk of tumour recurrence, or death, in patients by 44% versus pembrolizumab alone at the two-year timepoint. More recently, in December 2023, the latest data showed that patients receiving the combination were 49% less likely to experience disease progression or death at a median of three years post-treatment, compared to pembrolizumab alone, indicating strong durability of the observed responses. We believe the encouraging data provide clinical validation of the application of cancer vaccines, as well as the potential of combination approaches.

We note, however, that mRNA-4157/V940 is a personalised cancer vaccine, and that such patient-specific therapies are generally associated with manufacturing challenges that increase costs, prohibiting accessibility. Such therapies may struggle with production bottlenecks and the timely supply of treatments, which, in our view, may have a serious impact on patients battling aggressive cancers. Conversely, Ultimovacs’ UV1 is a universal off-the-shelf treatment option that is simpler to manufacture, addressing key considerations in accessibility in this competitive space, in our view.

Taking cancer on by taking immune system brakes off

As mentioned, Ultimovacs is focused on the development of novel immunotherapies to tackle cancer. The company’s lead asset, UV1, is a cancer vaccine with universal potential. UV1 is a peptide-based vaccine, designed to trigger immune responses through the recognition of human telomerase reverse transcriptase (hTERT), a protein that has been consistently associated with cancer growth. It is estimated that hTERT is overexpressed in up to 90% of human cancers, but not in healthy tissue, making it an attractive immunotherapy target. Ultimovacs is focused on demonstrating combinational synergies between the immune priming capabilities of UV1 and ICIs and is investigating UV1 in combination with various ICIs across multiple cancer indications (Exhibit 4).

Further to Ultimovacs’ clinical development efforts for UV1, it is also investigating its first product from its Tetanus-Epitope Targeting (TET) platform, which combines antigens and the vaccine adjuvant into the same active ingredient, aiming to enhance T-cell responses against cancer-specific peptides. In December 2023, Ultimovacs shared an update from the exploratory TENDU trial, which involved 12 patients with relapsed prostate cancer across three doses. Encouragingly, the study met its primary objective, showing desirable safety across all dose cohorts, and with no dose-limiting toxicities. It also met its secondary endpoint of activating an immune response against prostate specific peptides, which we view as an encouraging early indicator of the platform’s potential. While the TET platform represents a secondary focus for Ultimovacs (after ongoing clinical activities for UV1), we anticipate updates in this space once more material decisions have been made.

Exhibit 4: Ultimovacs’ clinical development pipeline

Source: Ultimovacs Q423 results presentation

Immunotherapy: The ideal doubles partner?

Our immune systems are well equipped to manage potential threats without causing damage to healthy parts of the body. However, cancer cells have often developed techniques to evade the natural surveillance systems of our bodies. While more traditional cancer treatments have focused on chemotherapy/radiation to directly target certain cancers, these are associated with myriad side effects and toxicity concerns. In contrast, immunotherapy (or immuno-oncology) has emerged as an innovative approach to fight cancer, while also offering considerably more desirable safety profiles. Immunotherapies harness the innate capabilities of the immune system, working by enhancing the body’s natural defence mechanisms. In this light, immunotherapies are akin to removing the brakes that cancer may put on our immune systems. We note that the immunotherapy treatment market is projected to have a value of c $155bn by 2030, from c $27bn in 2021, corresponding to a sizeable compound annual growth rate of 23%.

Most notably, ICIs have had profound success in recent years. Most ICIs are monoclonal antibodies designed to block receptors used by cancers to evade immune T-cell responses. The ICIs therefore switch the tumour microenvironment from ‘cold’ (ie immunosuppressive) to ‘hot’ (ie vulnerable to the immune system). Merck’s programmed death receptor 1 (PD-1) checkpoint inhibitor pembrolizumab (Keytruda) continues to dominate the immunotherapeutic market, having now received FDA approval for the treatment of 19 cancer types, with an additional 40 indications in the pipeline. Currently, the FDA has approved four different categories of ICIs, including inhibitors of: PD-1; the ligand PD-L1; the cytotoxic T-lymphocyte associated protein 4 (CTLA-4); and lymphocyte-activation gene 3 (LAG-3) (Exhibit 5). A product called Opdualag, a combination of nivolumab and relatlimab targeting both PD-1 and LAG-3, respectively, has been approved for the treatment of melanoma.

Exhibit 5: Approved ICIs

Drug

Company

Target

Launch year

Number of marketed indications

Estimated sales 2028 (US$)*

Nivolumab (Opdivo)

Bristol Myers Squibb

PD-1

2014

11

13.3bn

Pembrolizumab (Keytruda)

Merck

PD-1

2014

19

30.9bn

Cemiplimab (Libtayo)

Regeneron/Sanofi

PD-1

2018

5

1.7bn

Dostarlimab (Jemperli)

GSK

PD-1

2021

2

479m

Atezolizumab (Tecentriq)

Roche

PD-L1

2016

8

7.6bn

Avelumab (Bavencio)

EMD Serono/Merck

PD-L1

2017

3

773m

Durvalumab (Imfinzi)

AstraZeneca

PD-L1

2017

5

7.0bn

Ipilimumab (Yervoy)

Bristol Myers Squibb

CTLA-4

2011

6

1.6bn

Nivolumab/relatlimab (Opdualag)

Bristol Myers Squibb

PD-1/LAG-3

2022

1

2.0bn

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *According to EvaluatePharma.

Additional PD-1 programmes that have been approved, but are less significant when it comes to therapeutic use, are:

Incyte’s PD-1 programme (Zynyz) approved for Merkel cell carcinoma (US);

Coherus’s PD-1 programme (Loqtorzi) approved for recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma; and

BeiGene’s PD-1 programme (Tevimbra) approved for unresectable, locally advanced or metastatic oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (EU).

ICIs may fall short (on their own)

While ICIs lead the way for the treatment of various cancers, their use as monotherapies has limitations, such as low response rates in certain indications, as well as observations of tumour resistance. However, combination therapies are demonstrating the potential to provide more desirable patient outcomes compared to monotherapies, and in our view, such approaches (characterised by a distinct synergy between ICIs and new treatment options) show promise in disrupting existing standards of care in cancer treatment.

Financials

In FY23, Ultimovacs reported total operating expenses of NOK215.7m, up 17.5% y-o-y and in line with our estimate of NOK213.6m. The increase in operating expenses primarily resulted from a significant upturn (30.1% y-o-y) in external R&D expenses to NOK123.8m (versus NOK95.2m in FY22). The main contributors to the FY23 R&D expenses were the INITIUM trial and chemistry, manufacturing and controls activities. Total personnel (or SG&A) expenses recorded a moderate growth of 5.1% y-o-y to reach NOK75.1m in FY23 (versus NOK71.5m in FY22). This was driven by the employment of two additional employees during FY23 (25 full-time equivalents in FY23 vs 23 in FY22) and a general salary increase, offset by lower expenses related to the share-based compensation programme.

The operating loss, which mainly reflects operating expenses due to the absence of any revenue inflow, stood at NOK215.7m in FY23 (vs NOK183.6m in FY22) and was in line with our estimate of NOK213.6m. Net cash outflow from operating activities came in at NOK189.8m in FY23, 13.2% higher than FY22.

With FY23 numbers largely in line with our estimates, we have kept our FY24 estimates for R&D and other operating expenses broadly unchanged. We make minor tweaks to our financial expense and share-based compensation estimates, which result in a slight decline in our FY24 operating cash flow to NOK217.3m (from NOK230.2m previously). Furthermore, we introduce FY25 estimates as we roll forward our model by one year. In FY25, we forecast total operating expenses of NOK133.0m, which includes total personnel (or SG&A) expenses of NOK99.2m and R&D expenses of NOK15.9m (with preclinical assets and the TENDU project being the main contributors to the R&D costs).

As noted earlier, two key trial readouts are expected in 2024 (INITIUM and FOCUS), and we therefore expect to see progress on the partnering/licensing front for the company’s UV1 asset should trial outcomes be positive. Our model assumes a $1.64bn global out-licensing deal for UV1 across all five indications by end-2024, and we expect the company to receive its first set of development milestone payments totalling $114.2m in FY25 from three indications (malignant melanoma, mesothelioma and head and neck cancer).

Valuation

We value Ultimovacs at NOK8.5bn or NOK248 per share (from NOK7.6bn or NOK222 per share previously) based on a risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) analysis using a 12.5% discount rate, including net cash of NOK266.6m. This increase mainly represents the positive effect of rolling forward our model by one year combined with a positive FX impact. The US$/NOK exchange rate increased to NOK10.610/US$ from NOK10.182/US$ in our last update note, a material 4.2% change.

Our current valuation is wholly attributable to the five ongoing Phase II trials for UV1 and excludes other early-stage clinical (the Phase I TENDU trial) and preclinical assets, each of which offers upside on successful clinical progress. The rNPV valuation for all five indications is based on a similar bottom-up approach and we keep our long-term assumptions unchanged. While the company has pushed out the timeline for two of the Phase II readouts by six months (for the DOVACC and LUNGVAC trials), we continue to keep our launch estimates for these unchanged given our existing conservative clinical development timelines for these two programmes.

Ultimovacs ended the year with a net cash position of NOK266.6m, which management expects will to be sufficient to fund operations through 2024, which is also in line with our operating cash burn estimates. We continue to assume that a global out-licensing deal for UV1 across all indications will be secured by end-2024 and the company will turn cash flow positive following the deal thanks to the receipt of development milestone payments across multiple indications. However, we do not expect Ultimovacs to be fully revenue generating until the launch of UV1, which we forecast in 2028.

Exhibit 6: Sum of the parts valuation of Ultimovacs

Product

Launch

Peak sales
($m)

NPV
(NOKm)

NPV/share (NOK)

Probability of success

rNPV
(NOKm)

rNPV/share
(NOK/share)

UV1 – Malignant melanoma

2028

1,270

7,051.2

204.9

25.0%

2,021.7

58.8

UV1 – Mesothelioma

2028

570

3,224.5

93.7

10.0%

452.5

13.2

UV1 – Ovarian cancer

2029

787

3,647.8

106.0

15.0%

667.5

19.4

UV1 – H&N cancer

2029

1,370

6,649.0

193.3

25.0%

1,940.5

56.4

UV1 – NSCLC

2030

2,683

11,631.4

338.1

25.0%

3,197.5

92.9

Net cash

266.6

7.7

100.0%

266.6

7.7

Valuation

 

 

32,470.5

943.7

 

8,546.2

248.4

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 7: Financial summary

Accounts: IFRS, year end 31 December, NOKm

 

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024e

2025e

Income statement

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

1,212.28

Cost of sales

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Gross profit

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

1,212.28

SG&A (expenses)

 

(50.99)

(61.92)

(71.47)

(75.13)

(82.64)

(99.17)

R&D costs

 

(64.66)

(96.74)

(95.18)

(123.83)

(119.79)

(15.92)

Other income/(expense)

 

(5.78)

(2.48)

(14.34)

(14.00)

(29.95)

(15.53)

Exceptionals and adjustments

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Reported EBITDA

 

(121.43)

(161.13)

(180.98)

(212.97)

(232.38)

1,081.66

Depreciation and amortisation

 

(2.72)

(2.70)

(2.65)

(2.77)

(2.37)

(2.39)

Reported Operating Profit/(loss)

 

(124.15)

(163.83)

(183.63)

(215.74)

(234.76)

1,079.28

Finance income/(expense)

 

3.59

(0.89)

15.84

26.50

9.01

1.39

Other income/(expense)

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Exceptionals and adjustments

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Reported PBT

 

(120.55)

(164.72)

(167.79)

(189.24)

(225.75)

1,080.67

Income tax expense

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Reported net income

 

(120.55)

(164.72)

(167.79)

(189.24)

(225.75)

1,080.67

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Basic average number of shares, m

 

30.26

32.37

34.25

34.40

34.41

34.41

Basic EPS (NOK)

 

(3.98)

(5.09)

(4.90)

(5.50)

(6.56)

31.41

Diluted EPS (NOK)

 

(3.98)

(5.09)

(4.90)

(5.50)

(6.56)

31.41

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Balance sheet

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Property, plant and equipment

 

0.38

0.21

0.22

0.11

0.11

0.11

Intangible assets

 

76.35

71.12

68.43

73.25

72.39

71.53

Other non-current assets

 

3.63

1.95

5.44

3.56

3.56

3.56

Total non-current assets

 

80.35

73.28

74.09

76.92

76.06

75.20

Cash and equivalents

 

440.93

574.17

425.31

266.56

56.74

1,147.16

Trade and other receivables

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Other current assets

 

8.44

8.09

10.27

5.56

5.56

5.56

Total current assets

 

449.36

582.25

435.58

272.12

62.30

1,152.72

Non-current loans and borrowings

 

2.08

0.46

3.71

1.89

1.72

1.63

Deferred tax liabilities

 

11.80

11.03

10.70

11.65

11.65

11.65

Total non-current liabilities

 

13.87

11.49

14.41

13.54

13.37

13.28

Trade and other payables

 

8.61

22.56

7.66

11.17

12.15

6.89

Other current liabilities

 

18.86

28.34

38.25

44.94

44.94

44.94

Total current liabilities

 

27.47

50.90

45.91

56.11

57.09

51.83

Equity attributable to company

 

488.38

593.15

449.35

279.39

67.90

1,162.82

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cashflow statement

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Profit before tax

 

(120.55)

(164.72)

(167.79)

(189.24)

(225.75)

1,080.67

Depreciation and amortisation

 

2.72

2.70

2.65

2.77

2.37

2.39

Other adjustments

 

3.22

12.33

4.44

(12.24)

5.13

12.74

Movements in working capital

 

6.40

23.86

(6.99)

8.89

0.98

(5.27)

Interest paid / received

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Income taxes paid

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Cash from operations (CFO)

 

(108.22)

(125.83)

(167.69)

(189.83)

(217.27)

1,090.53

Capex

 

(0.28)

(0.09)

(0.20)

(0.03)

(0.03)

(0.04)

Purchase of intangible assets

 

(5.00)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Other investing activities

 

4.55

3.06

8.89

14.06

9.33

1.70

Cash used in investing activities (CFIA)

 

(0.74)

2.98

8.69

14.03

9.30

1.66

Net proceeds from issue of shares

 

152.93

261.85

5.48

0.30

0.00

0.00

Movements in debt

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Other financing activities

 

(1.92)

(1.90)

(1.91)

(2.15)

(1.86)

(1.77)

Cash flow from financing activities

 

151.02

259.96

3.58

(1.85)

(1.86)

(1.77)

Increase/(decrease) in cash and equivalents

 

42.06

137.11

(155.43)

(177.64)

(209.82)

1,090.42

Cash and equivalents at beginning of period

 

399.61

440.93

574.17

425.31

266.56

56.74

Cash and equivalents at end of period

 

440.93

574.17

425.31

266.56

56.74

1,147.16

Net (debt) cash (including lease liabilities)

 

437.14

572.08

419.83

262.85

53.19

1,143.71

Source: Company reports, Edison Investment Research


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London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Ultimovacs and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Ultimovacs. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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