Ultimovacs — Staying alive with UV1 in NIPU and INTIUM

Ultimovacs (OSE: ULTI)

Last close As at 22/05/2024

NOK7.03

0.01 (0.14%)

Market capitalisation

NOK242m

More on this equity

Research: Healthcare

Ultimovacs — Staying alive with UV1 in NIPU and INTIUM

Ultimovacs’ Q323 update recapped an active period, including the recently announced positive data from the NIPU trial evaluating lead cancer vaccine UV1 for the treatment of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM). As previously noted, the key observation was reduced risk of death by 27% with UV1 treatment compared to control. Although overall survival (OS) is the secondary endpoint of the NIPU Phase II trial, OS is regarded as the gold standard of cancer treatment endpoints and a critical consideration in MPM, an aggressive type of cancer with a high mortality rate and few therapeutic options. We believe the next key catalyst for Ultimovacs will be results from the INITIUM trial in malignant melanoma, which, after an agreement with regulatory authorities to enable an earlier analysis, are now confirmed for H124. At end-Q323, the company had net cash of NOK300.3m, which management estimates provides a cash runway to H224 and through topline readouts from the INITIUM and FOCUS trials.

Soo Romanoff

Written by

Soo Romanoff

Managing Director - Head of Content, Healthcare

Ultimovacs_resized

Healthcare

Ultimovacs

Staying alive with UV1 in NIPU and INTIUM

Q323 update

Pharma and biotech

9 November 2023

Price

NOK94

Market cap

NOK3,234m

NOK11.20/US$

Net cash (NOKm) at end-September 2023 (excluding leases)

300.3

Shares in issue

34.4m

Free float

53%

Code

ULTI

Primary exchange

Oslo Stock Exchange

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(4.4)

24.5

0.1

Rel (local)

(5.6)

20.7

(0.4)

52-week high/low

NOK148

NOK68

Business description

Ultimovacs is developing novel immunotherapies against cancer. Its lead product candidate, UV1, is a peptide-based vaccine against the universal cancer antigen telomerase (hTERT), which is expressed in c 85–90% of all cancer types. UV1 therefore has broad potential in a variety of different settings and combinations.

Next events

Phase I TENDU initial data

Q423

Phase II INITIUM top-line data

H124

Phase II FOCUS top-line data

H224

Analysts

Soo Romanoff

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dr Arron Aatkar

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Nidhi Singh

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Ultimovacs is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Ultimovacs’ Q323 update recapped an active period, including the recently announced positive data from the NIPU trial evaluating lead cancer vaccine UV1 for the treatment of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM). As previously noted, the key observation was reduced risk of death by 27% with UV1 treatment compared to control. Although overall survival (OS) is the secondary endpoint of the NIPU Phase II trial, OS is regarded as the gold standard of cancer treatment endpoints and a critical consideration in MPM, an aggressive type of cancer with a high mortality rate and few therapeutic options. We believe the next key catalyst for Ultimovacs will be results from the INITIUM trial in malignant melanoma, which, after an agreement with regulatory authorities to enable an earlier analysis, are now confirmed for H124. At end-Q323, the company had net cash of NOK300.3m, which management estimates provides a cash runway to H224 and through topline readouts from the INITIUM and FOCUS trials.

Year
end

Revenue
(NOKm)

PBT*
(NOKm)

EPS**
(NOK)

DPS
(NOK)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/21

0.0

(164.7)

(5.09)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/22

0.0

(167.8)

(4.89)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/23e

0.0

(191.5)

(5.57)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/24e

0.0

(235.9)

(6.86)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT is reported. **EPS is fully diluted.

NIPU data demonstrate benefit in overall survival

As a follow-up to the preliminary data, the lead investigator presented detailed results for the Phase II NIPU trial at ESMO 2023, showing that treatment with UV1 in combination with ipilimumab and nivolumab resulted in OS of 15.4 months, versus 11.1 months with ipilimumab and nivolumab alone. While progression-free survival (PFS) was the primary endpoint, OS is regarded as the gold standard in oncology treatment, which supports further clinical development of UV1 in this indication. Given that MPM is an aggressive type of cancer with a high mortality rate, limited options in first-line treatment and no established standard of care in second-line treatment, we believe there is significant opportunity for Ultimovacs.

Next in the pipeline: Malignant melanoma

The Phase II INITIUM trial is evaluating UV1 in combination with ipilimumab and nivolumab in malignant melanoma. Top-line results were delayed due to patients taking longer than expected to experience disease progression. But, in October 2023, Ultimovacs amended the study protocol enabling analysis to commence from mid-January. Further, INITIUM is treating the same patient population as the Phase I UV1-103 trial, for which positive four-year data were recently shared. With encouraging interim readouts from UV1-103, we view the INITIUM data (expected March or April 2024) as potentially the next major catalyst for investor attention.

Valuation adjusts to NOK7.6bn or NOK222 per share

Our valuation for Ultimovacs increases to NOK7.6bn or NOK222 per share (vs NOK7.5bn or NOK219 previously) as we roll forward our model, make minor adjustments to forecasts, and update our net cash balance. We expect Ultimovacs’ Q323 a net cash position of NOK300.3m to fund operations to H224.

Recap of detailed NIPU results

Ultimovacs presented detailed clinical data for NIPU at the ESMO Congress 2023 (Madrid, Spain, 20–24 October 2023). NIPU (n=118) is a randomised, multi-centre Phase II trial to evaluate UV1 in combination with Bristol-Myers Squibb’s immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) ipilimumab and nivolumab as a potential second-line treatment of patients with MPM. The field of MPM treatment has not progressed much in the last 20 years, with first-line treatment having relied on platinum and pemetrexed chemotherapy. In October 2020, the ipilimumab and nivolumab combination was approved by the FDA in the same line. However, many patients do not respond to chemotherapy or ICI treatment, hence there is a significant unmet need in MPM with no established standard of care in second-line treatment (Exhibit 1). We note that, while PFS was the primary endpoint of the NIPU trial, the secondary endpoint of OS is considered the gold standard of endpoints in oncology trials. For reference, in the CheckMate-743 trial comparing ipilimumab and nivolumab to chemotherapy for the treatment of MPM, there was no difference in PFS between the two arms, but the ICI combination showed a 26% reduction in the risk of death, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.74 (Exhibit 2).

Exhibit 1: Current treatment options in MPM

Exhibit 2: OS data from the CheckMate-743 clinical trial

Source: Ultimovacs presentation. Note: Footnote 2 refers to Baas et al study (2021).

Source: Ultimovacs presentation.

Exhibit 1: Current treatment options in MPM

Source: Ultimovacs presentation. Note: Footnote 2 refers to Baas et al study (2021).

Exhibit 2: OS data from the CheckMate-743 clinical trial

Source: Ultimovacs presentation.

Robust OS data support further clinical development

In the latest update from Ultimovacs on NIPU, management emphasised that the HR is the key efficacy measure for assessing the clinical data. Importantly, the HR was determined using a multivariate analysis taking into account different demographics between the two arms of the study, including differences in histology and other subgroups, as these are associated with different prognoses. The full clinical data show that treatment with UV1 plus ipilimumab and nivolumab (treatment arm or ‘Arm A (IPI-NIVO-UV1)’) resulted in improved OS, with risk of death reduced by 27% compared to ipilimumab and nivolumab alone (control arm or ‘Arm B (IPI-NIVO)’) (HR = 0.73 [80% confidence interval (CI), 0.53–1.00], 1-sided p value = 0.0985). Median OS was reported as 15.4 months (95% CI, 11.1–22.6) for the UV1 treatment arm versus 11.1 months (95% CI, 8.8–18.1) for the control arm, with a median observation time of 17.3 months, meeting the trial protocol’s predefined threshold for statistical significance (Exhibit 3). The company specified that its analysis was set up on a pre-defined basis with an 80% statistical power and a 1-sided alpha of 0.1. This means that the company’s significance determination for the OS data was based on an 80% confidence interval (ie it has more than 80% confidence that the study results accurately measured the effects of UV1).

In addition, a blinded independent central review (BICR) conducted assessments on objective response rate (ORR, defined by a tumour reduction of at least 30%). In the treatment arm, an ORR of 31% was reported versus 16% in the control arm (odds ratio 2.44 (80% CI, 1.35–4.49), 1-sided p value = 0.028), highlighting that approximately twice as many patients in the UV1 arm responded to treatment (Exhibit 4). In the associated webinar for the NIPU trial results, it was noted that the patients involved in the study will continue to be monitored in the next few years for efficacy (and safety), and the company will share updated data when available.

Exhibit 3: Overall survival data

Exhibit 4: ORR data (BICR)

Source: Ultimovacs presentation. Note: ‘Number at risk’ refers to the number of patients confirmed alive at each given timepoint.

Source: Ultimovacs presentation

Exhibit 3: Overall survival data

Source: Ultimovacs presentation. Note: ‘Number at risk’ refers to the number of patients confirmed alive at each given timepoint.

Exhibit 4: ORR data (BICR)

Source: Ultimovacs presentation

PFS data explained

Regarding PFS, the BICR determined that the study did not meet this predefined primary endpoint. According to the BICR, median PFS was measured as 4.2 months (95% CI 2.9–9.8) for the UV1 treatment arm, whereas it was 4.7 months (95% CI 3.9–7.0) for the control arm, resulting in an HR of 1.01 (80% CI 0.75–1.36, 1-sided p value = 0.4895), suggesting that the control arm may have very slightly outperformed those treated with UV1 (Exhibit 5) in this measure, but we caution that the difference was very far from meeting any statistical thresholds. Conversely, according to the investigator assessment, median PFS was 4.3 months (95% CI 3.0–6.8) for the treatment arm versus 2.9 months (95% CI 2.4–5.5) for the control arm, giving an HR of 0.60 (80% CI 0.45–0.81, 1-sided p value = 0.0125), indicating that patients receiving UV1 treatment performed better than the control arm (Exhibit 6). In the associated webinar, the discrepancy between these assessments was attributed to an inherent challenge in assessing the progression of MPM. Measures of cancer progression should be taken from consistent parts of a tumour and, generally, this is considered more straightforward with certain cancers where lesions are obvious. However, mesothelioma is a relatively thin tumour that lines the lung, and, hence, it may be more difficult for radiologists to make clear evaluations. Given this, Professor Åslaug Helland (the principal investigator for the NIPU trial) noted that OS is ultimately more important for patient outcomes, and the clinically meaningful results here support further clinical development in this indication. We also note that there was a similar rate of serious adverse events in both arms (61% for the treatment arm versus 59% for the control arm), indicating a comparable safety profile with the addition of UV1 to ipilimumab and nivolumab. To our knowledge, this is the first instance of a cancer vaccine with ‘universal potential’ demonstrating efficacy in a randomised Phase II clinical trial.

Exhibit 5: PFS data (BICR)

Exhibit 6: PFS data (investigator assessment)

Source: Ultimovacs presentation. Note: *2sided p value of 0.67 is based on logrank test, rather than HR, and does not account for differences in histology or subgroups.

Source: Ultimovacs presentation. Note: *2sided p value of 0.049 is based on logrank test, rather than HR, and does not account for differences in histology or subgroups.

Exhibit 5: PFS data (BICR)

Source: Ultimovacs presentation. Note: *2sided p value of 0.67 is based on logrank test, rather than HR, and does not account for differences in histology or subgroups.

Exhibit 6: PFS data (investigator assessment)

Source: Ultimovacs presentation. Note: *2sided p value of 0.049 is based on logrank test, rather than HR, and does not account for differences in histology or subgroups.

As a reminder, the NIPU Phase II trial is an investigator-sponsored study and Ultimovacs therefore lacks some control over how it is conducted. Initial clinical results were reported in June 2023 and initially perceived negatively, as the study did not meet its primary endpoint of PFS. However, despite the lack of significance in terms of PFS in the initial results, management was encouraged by the trend in OS benefit in the UV1 treatment arm compared to the control, as well as the safety profile of the cancer vaccine.

Looking ahead in MPM

Following publication of the full results, we believe the OS data are encouraging for UV1 as a potential treatment for MPM. We highlight that all patients recruited to the NIPU study had inoperable MPM and had previously been treated with first-line platinum-based chemotherapy. We also highlight that the NIPU trial enrolled a relatively high portion of PD-L1 negative patients (53.4%), suggesting that these patients were less likely to respond to ICIs alone (Exhibit 7). Therefore, we believe the results demonstrate measurable efficacy in this hard-to-treat patient population and we view management’s plans to continue clinical development efforts in this indication as a sensible strategic decision.

Exhibit 7: Baseline demographics for NIPU

Source: Ultimovacs presentation

To further demonstrate Ultimovacs’ progress in MPM, we note that the FDA recently granted orphan drug designation (ODD) to the cancer vaccine for this indication (announced on 9 October) based on the NIPU data, which we believe may support future discussions with regulatory authorities. ODD is issued to drugs/biologics intended for the safe and effective treatment, diagnosis or prevention of rare diseases/conditions that affect fewer than 200,000 people in the US. The benefits of ODD include tax credits for qualified clinical trials, exemption from the Prescription Drug User Fee and, importantly, seven years of US market exclusivity, provided the company receives FDA approval.

Ultimovacs now plans to establish a clear path forward for UV1 in MPM. The company is already engaged in discussions with investigators associated with the trial, as well as third parties not associated with the trial, regarding the next steps. The detailed NIPU results have also been shared with regulatory authorities. We note that the first patient for the NIPU trial was enrolled in June 2020, ahead of the approval of ipilimumab and nivolumab later that year, and recognise that this would have altered the treatment space. Consequently, management has communicated that a potential Phase III trial in MPM may not only include a larger patient population, but also target the first-line setting in addition to the second-line setting. We expect an update once more material decisions have been made.

Understanding the endpoints in oncology clinical trials

Given the complexity of and differences between different types of cancer, oncology clinical trials can be difficult to design. Endpoints in such trials must be measurable outcomes to establish the potential benefit, and safety, of a new therapy.

Overall survival: OS is generally considered the gold standard primary endpoint, as the obvious goal of a new cancer treatment is survival. Aptly named, OS is defined as the duration from when a patient is randomised through to death. While this endpoint has many advantages, such as its objectivity, it may also require larger trial populations and is hindered by time and costs.

Progression-free survival: PFS is defined as the duration from when a patient is randomised through to first signs of disease progression or death. This may be chosen as a surrogate endpoint, as fewer patients are required to obtain data at an earlier point in the clinical trial.

For further details and information on other endpoints, we direct readers to this helpful resource.

Key upcoming Phase II results: One down, four to go

2023–25 was always expected to be a particularly active period for Ultimovacs, as it gears up for multiple Phase II clinical trial readouts assessing UV1 with different ICIs across various cancer indications (Exhibit 8). With the full results now shared for NIPU in MPM, all eyes now turn to INITIUM in malignant melanoma. We note that for each of these trials, the primary endpoint is PFS, with secondary endpoints of OS, ORR, duration of response and safety.

Growing the INITIUM data package

Post reporting period, on 2 November 2023, Ultimovacs announced the completion of patient enrolment (n=21) for a supplementary study to INITIUM. The supplementary study is intended to explore the biological activity and mode of action of the T cells induced by UV1. All 21 malignant melanoma patients completed treatment with UV1 in combination with ipilimumab and nivolumab as part of the INITIUM Phase II trial. This additional research is intended to assess the ability of UV1 to improve overall immune responses, as well as the ability to enhance the responsiveness of ICIs. Management has noted that, while analyses from this supplementary study will be conducted alongside analyses from the main INITIUM trial, the results will not be included in the topline INITIUM readouts in H124. Provided the data are supportive, we believe this supplementary study could strengthen the foundation for discussions with potential partners, and may also support meetings with regulatory authorities as the company plans late-stage clinical development in this indication.

As a reminder, guided timelines for INITIUM top-line results had been pushed back multiple times (now to H124) due to patients taking longer than anticipated to experience disease progression. Management has now confirmed it has amended the study protocol to ensure that data readouts are not delayed further. The original trial protocol specified that data analysis would be conducted once disease progression was observed in 70/156 patients (referred to as the number of endpoints). However, regulatory authorities have agreed that data analysis may now commence from a cut-off point of mid-January 2024, allowing a minimum 18-month follow-up period of all evaluable patients. Importantly, the amendment will not affect the integrity of the statistical analysis planned for this study, which remains set up with 80% statistical power. With management communicating that the analysis will likely take place with seven or eight fewer endpoints, the company will need to demonstrate a slightly lower HR of 0.726 for a statistically significant result, slightly lower than the previously defined HR of 0.736 with the originally planned 70 endpoints. As melanoma is considered one of the most immunogenic tumour types and since UV1 has already demonstrated proof of concept in this indication in the Phase I UV1-103 trial, we believe that the readouts from INITIUM represent the most significant upcoming catalyst for Ultimovacs.

In October 2021, Ultimovacs received Fast Track designation for UV1 as an add-on therapy to ipilimumab or pembrolizumab for treatment of unresectable or metastatic melanoma. Further, in December 2021, the FDA also granted ODD to UV1 for the treatment of malignant melanoma stage IIB–IV.

Other Phase II trials on the horizon

FOCUS: Ultimovacs announced the completion of patient enrolment in August 2023. Topline results, including readouts of PFS and OS endpoints after 12 months minimum follow-up, and primary endpoint of PFS at six months, are expected to be released in H224, consistent with prior guided timelines for this trial.

DOVACC: management has communicated that it may update the guided timeline for this trial in the company’s Q423 report (expected on 14 February 2024).

LUNGVAC: management has communicated that it may update the guided timeline for this trial in the company’s Q423 report (expected on 14 February 2024).

Exhibit 8: Summary of Ultimovacs’ Phase II clinical trials for UV1

Clinical trial

Clinical phase

Number of participants

Indication
(line of treatment)

Global projected 2028 sales (US$)*

Combination

Results (anticipated)

NIPU

Phase II

n=118;
concluded

Malignant pleural mesothelioma
(second-line)

382m

Ipilimumab
and nivolumab

October 2023

INITIUM

Phase II

n=156;
enrolment complete

Metastatic malignant melanoma
(first-line)

13.6bn

Ipilimumab
and nivolumab

(H124)

FOCUS

Phase II

n=75;
enrolment complete

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma
(first-line)

4.7bn

Pembrolizumab

(H224)

DOVACC

Phase II

46/184 (25% as of Q323)
patients enrolled to date

Ovarian cancer
(second-line)

7.6bn

Durvalumab
and olaparib

(H224)

LUNGVAC

Phase II

13/138 (c 9% as of Q323)
patients enrolled to date

Non-small cell lung cancer
(first-line)

54.6bn

Cemiplimab

(H225)

Source: Ultimovacs resources. Note: *According to EvaluatePharma.

Also upcoming: TENDU Phase I trial results in Q423

Beyond UV1, Ultimovacs is also focused on the clinical development of its first candidate from the TET (tetanus-epitope targeting) technology platform. The Phase I TENDU trial (Exhibit 9) is assessing a prostate cancer-specific vaccine based on TET technology, and is intended to provide information on dosing, safety and immune activation. The enrolment of prostate cancer patients in the TENDU trial (n=12) was completed in December 2022. To date, TENDU treatment has been reported as safe and well-tolerated, and the full readouts are expected to provide an update on immune responses and further information on safety. Provided the data are supportive, Ultimovacs plans to continue developing new vaccine solutions based on the TET platform. Management has communicated that it is on track to share the results from this study, along with an update on the TET platform, in Q423, consistent with prior guided timelines.

Exhibit 9: TENDU Phase I clinical trial

Source: Ultimovacs presentation

Financials

In Q323, Ultimovacs reported total operating expenses of NOK54.7m, up 24.2% y-o-y from NOK44.1m in Q322. The increase in operating expenses primarily resulted from a significant upturn (73.7% y-o-y) in payroll expenses to NOK24.5m (versus NOK14.1m in Q322). The increase in payroll was largely due to higher social security tax accrual related to share options, which varies with share price movements, and may be non-recurring in nature as a result. Altogether, the social security tax related to options had a NOK6.9m expense contribution in Q323 (vs a NOK2.2m credit in Q322), resulting in a NOK9.0m yearly swing. The largest overall contributor to payroll expenses was NOK11.5m in salaries, which increased 12.6% y-o-y due to the increase in total headcount (total full-time equivalent count of 24 in Q323 vs 23 in Q322).

External R&D expenses recorded moderate growth of 9.3% y-o-y at NOK26.4m versus NOK24.2m in Q322, due to INITIUM and NIPU trial related expenses, along with chemistry, manufacturing and controls (CMC) activities. Operating losses, which mainly reflect operating expenses due to the absence of any revenue inflow, stood at NOK54.7m in Q323 (versus NOK44.1m in Q322). Net cash flow from operating activities was reported at NOK40.7m in Q322 (NOK32.3m in Q322).

Based on year-to-date results and current operational visibility, we have made some adjustments to our FY23 and FY24 estimates. At the group level, we expect Ultimovacs to continue its R&D activities at a similar pace until end-FY24, hence, we have decreased our R&D forecasts to NOK106.0m and NOK119.8m in FY23 and FY24, respectively, compared to prior expectations of NOK120.0m and NOK136.9m for these periods. Additionally, we have reduced our SG&A estimates to NOK78.6m in FY23 (NOK85.8m previously) and NOK82.5m (NOK102.9m previously) in FY24 as we do not expect any material change in employee headcount, or any additional expense over the next year. Overall, our operating loss estimates are now NOK213.6m in FY23 and NOK234.7m in FY24 (versus NOK238.2m and NOK276.4m previously).

Valuation

Our valuation for Ultimovacs increases to NOK7.6bn or NOK222 per share (from NOK7.5bn or NOK219 per share previously), mainly representing the effect of rolling forward our model by three months, which was further supported by the above-mentioned modifications to our expense estimates, and partially offset by a reduced net cash balance of NOK300.3m (vs NOK344.1m at end-Q223). Our long-term assumptions for the company remain unchanged, and as we move closer to the expected milestones (first out-licensing deal assumed at end FY24) and projected product launches, our discounted valuation increases in value.

Exhibit 10: Valuation of Ultimovacs

Product

Launch

Peak sales
($m)

NPV
(NOKm)

NPV/share (NOK)

Probability of success

rNPV
(NOKm)

rNPV/share
(NOK/share)

UV1 – Malignant melanoma – INITIUM trial

2028

1,270

6,295.8

183.0

25.0%

1,719.5

50.0

UV1 – Mesothelioma

2028

570

2,952.2

85.8

10.0%

383.7

11.2

UV1 – Ovarian cancer

2029

787

3,365.1

97.8

15.0%

631.5

18.4

UV1 – H&N cancer

2029

1,370

6,096.4

177.2

25.0%

1,679.1

48.8

UV1 – NSCLC

2030

2,683

10,744.7

312.4

25.0%

2,917.9

84.8

Net cash

300.3

8.7

100.0%

300.3

8.7

Valuation

 

 

29,754.6

865.0

 

7,632.1

221.9

Source: Edison Investment Research

As stated above, at end-September 2023, Ultimovacs had a net cash position of NOK300.3m, which management expects to be sufficient to fund operations to H224, which is also in line with our operating cash burn estimates. Since our model assumes an out-licensing deal by end-2024, we estimate that the company would be required to raise c NOK150m in H224 (before a deal is secured). We account for this raise as illustrative debt in our model. Alternatively, if the funding is realised through an equity issue instead (assuming at the current trading price of c NOK94/share), Ultimovacs would need to issue 1.60m shares, resulting in our per-share valuation coming down to NOK216 from NOK222 currently (shares outstanding would increase from 34.4m to 36.0m). However, we do not expect Ultimovacs to be fully revenue generating and self-sustaining until the launch of UV1, which we forecast in 2028.


Exhibit 11: Financial summary

Accounts: IFRS; year end 31 December; NOKm

 

2021

2022

2023e

2024e

Income statement

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Cost of sales

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Gross profit

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

SG&A (expenses)

 

(61.92)

(71.47)

(78.61)

(82.54)

R&D costs

 

(96.74)

(95.18)

(106.01)

(119.79)

Other income/(expense)

 

(2.48)

(14.34)

(26.50)

(29.95)

Exceptionals and adjustments

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Reported EBITDA

 

(161.13)

(180.98)

(211.13)

(232.28)

Depreciation and amortisation

 

(2.70)

(2.65)

(2.44)

(2.38)

Reported Operating Profit/(loss)

 

(163.83)

(183.63)

(213.57)

(234.67)

Finance income/(expense)

 

(0.89)

15.84

22.11

(1.18)

Other income/(expense)

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Exceptionals and adjustments

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Reported PBT

 

(164.72)

(167.79)

(191.46)

(235.85)

Income tax expense

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Reported net income

 

(164.72)

(167.79)

(191.46)

(235.85)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Basic average number of shares, m

 

32.37

34.31

34.40

34.40

Basic EPS (NOK)

 

(5.09)

(4.89)

(5.57)

(6.86)

Diluted EPS (NOK)

 

(5.09)

(4.89)

(5.57)

(6.86)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Balance sheet

 

 

 

 

 

Property, plant and equipment

 

0.21

0.22

0.13

0.01

Intangible assets

 

71.12

68.43

66.28

64.21

Other non-current assets

 

1.95

5.44

5.44

5.44

Total non-current assets

 

73.28

74.09

71.85

69.66

Cash and equivalents

 

574.17

425.31

239.66

165.29

Trade and other receivables

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Other current assets

 

8.09

10.27

16.38

16.38

Total current assets

 

582.26

435.58

256.03

181.67

Non-current loans and borrowings

 

0.46

3.71

3.71

153.71

Deferred tax liabilities

 

11.03

10.70

10.70

10.70

Total non-current liabilities

 

11.49

14.41

14.41

164.41

Trade and other payables

 

22.56

7.66

8.90

9.78

Other current liabilities

 

28.34

38.25

38.25

38.25

Total current liabilities

 

50.90

45.91

47.15

48.03

Equity attributable to company

 

593.15

449.35

266.31

38.88

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cashflow statement

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Profit/(loss)

 

(163.83)

(183.63)

(213.57)

(234.67)

Depreciation and amortisation

 

2.70

2.65

2.44

2.38

Other adjustments

 

12.33

4.44

(21.32)

2.43

Movements in working capital

 

23.86

(6.99)

(4.86)

0.88

Interest paid / received

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Income taxes paid

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Cash from operations (CFO)

 

(125.83)

(167.69)

(215.20)

(230.16)

Capex

 

(0.09)

(0.20)

(0.20)

(0.20)

Acquisitions & disposals net

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Other investing activities

 

3.06

8.89

29.74

5.99

Cash used in investing activities (CFIA)

 

2.98

8.69

29.55

5.80

Net proceeds from issue of shares

 

261.85

5.48

0.00

0.00

Movements in debt

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

150.00

Other financing activities

 

(1.90)

(1.91)

0.00

0.00

Cash flow from financing activities

 

259.96

3.58

0.00

150.00

Increase/(decrease) in cash and equivalents

 

137.11

(155.43)

(185.65)

(74.36)

Cash and equivalents at beginning of period

 

440.93

574.17

425.31

239.66

Cash and equivalents at end of period

 

574.17

425.31

239.66

165.29

Net (debt) cash (including lease liabilities)

 

572.08

419.83

234.18

9.81

Source: Company reports, Edison Investment Research.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Ultimovacs and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Ultimovacs. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Ultimovacs and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Ultimovacs. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

More on Ultimovacs

View All

Latest from the Healthcare sector

View All Healthcare content

Research: Industrials

Information Services Corporation — Sustained growth with FY23 guidance reiterated

Despite prevailing macroeconomic headwinds and a subdued Canadian property market, Information Services Corporation (ISC) demonstrated year-on-year top-line and adjusted EBITDA growth in Q323. This was largely attributable to the MSA extension, augmented by sustained organic growth of the Services division. Net income was affected by heightened net finance costs, as a result of a rise in net debt from the C$150m upfront payment for the MSA extension. Nevertheless, ISC remains on a trajectory of securing new contracts and management reaffirms its FY23 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance. We maintain our forecasts and valuation of C$37, implying 79% upside.

Continue Reading

Subscribe to Edison

Get access to the very latest content matched to your personal investment style.

Sign up for free