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While FY18 numbers dipped as management expected, revenue and EBITDA were in the top half of guidance. The results reflected weaker software licence renewals, which reduced revenues and slashed margins. FY18 cash generation was strong, with operating cash flow up nearly 60% at €8.3m and the maintenance book continued to grow with the help of acquisitions. In our view, the shares are attractive, noting the potential sub 6x FY20 EV/EBITDA ratio, given the strong cash generation and high level of recurring revenues (we estimate 80%+ in FY18).
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Beta Systems |
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Scale research report - Update
31 January 2019 |
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While FY18 numbers dipped as management expected, revenue and EBITDA were in the top half of guidance. The results reflected weaker software licence renewals, which reduced revenues and slashed margins. FY18 cash generation was strong, with operating cash flow up nearly 60% at €8.3m and the maintenance book continued to grow with the help of acquisitions. In our view, the shares are attractive, noting the potential sub 6x FY20 EV/EBITDA ratio, given the strong cash generation and high level of recurring revenues (we estimate 80%+ in FY18).
FY18 results: Ahead of guidance
Revenue slipped 8% to €45.9m (comfortably ahead of €41–43m guidance), while EBITDA nearly halved to €5.5m (€5.3m; mid-point of guidance). The result included €3m revenues and a €0.6m EBITDA loss from acquisitions. Net cash fell to €35.6m (including €30.1m on deposit) from €44.1m, due to the impact of a €11.5m share buyback and two acquisitions. A dividend of €0.23 per share is proposed.
Guidance: EBITDA margins expected to recover
FY19 management guidance is for revenues of €46.5–49.5m, which implies c 5% growth at the mid-point, and for EBITDA margins of c 15%. For FY20, the guidance is for moderate revenue and EBITDA growth, with an EBITDA margin of 15–20%.
M&A will continue to feature
The group has made four acquisitions in the last four years (HORIZONT in FY15, LYNET and AUCONET in FY18 and Categis in FY19) and it continues to seek acquisitions to bulk up its divisions and diversify revenue streams. Beta Systems has a €35.6m war chest to help it to pursue its acquisition strategy.
Valuation: Modest valuation after adjusting for cash
After stripping out net cash of €35.6m, the group enterprise value is c €52m. Based on the mid-point of management’s FY19 EBITDA guidance, this implies an EV/EBITDA ratio of a modest 7.1x. Based on the longer-term guidance, EV/EBITDA could feasibly fall below 6x in FY20 (eg, 5% revenue growth and 17.5% margins implies 5.9x EV/EBITDA). In our view, these valuations are very modest for a software business that has the potential to deliver 20%+ EBITDA margins and writes off all its R&D expenditure (c 20% of sales) in the year incurred. Additionally, the group’s main division, DCI, could benefit from the disruptions caused by the acquisitions of its two major competitors, BMC and CA, in 2018.
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Historical financials
Source: Company accounts |
Edison Investment Research provides qualitative research coverage on companies in the Deutsche Börse Scale segment in accordance with section 36 subsection 3 of the General Terms and Conditions of Deutsche Börse AG for the Regulated Unofficial Market (Freiverkehr) on Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (as of 1 March 2017). Two to three research reports will be produced per year. Research reports do not contain Edison analyst financial forecasts.
FY18 results: In the top half of guidance
FY18 revenue slipped by 8% to €45.9m (comfortably ahead of €41–43m guidance), while EBITDA nearly halved to €5.5m (€5.3m mid-point of guidance). Excluding acquisitions, revenues were €42.9m and EBITDA was €6.1m. Hence, excluding acquisitions, revenue and EBITDA were also above the mid-points of the guidance ranges. The revenue decline related to the renewal cycle, which saw a peak in FY17, and hence there was a 36% decline in licence revenues in FY18. Nevertheless, both the group’s divisions experienced significantly higher volumes of new orders in FY18 and in spite of the fluctuating revenues and EBITDA, net cash from operating activities improved in the fourth consecutive year.
The group has two continuing divisions: data centre intelligence (DCI, solutions for data centre automation) and identity access management (IAM, solutions for central user and access management). A third division, digitalisation (DIG), has been established via the acquisition of LYNET during the year.
The bulk of group software is sold on a rental basis and Beta recognises rental revenues on a similar basis to a traditional licence (eg c 60% of total revenues of a three-year rental contract are recognised in the first year, with c 20% in each of year two and three). This adds volatility to revenues and brings revenues forward compared with a cash flow model. This revenue recognition policy is in line with IFRS15. Due to a renewal cycle, licence revenues jumped in FY17 but fell back in FY18. However, maintenance revenues continued to increase for the fourth consecutive year, rising 3%, boosted by the acquisitions. New business in both IAM and DCI also developed well.
The predominant rental model means that c 80%+ of group revenues are recurring (licences and maintenance) while much of services revenues have a recurring feature, which would take the recurring revenues to more than 90% of the total.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
€m |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
Year-end 30 September |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
Income statement |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue |
37.7 |
33.8 |
41.6 |
46.4 |
49.8 |
45.9 |
Revenue growth |
-9% |
-10% |
23% |
12% |
7% |
-8% |
Gross margin |
91% |
91% |
94% |
94% |
96% |
95% |
EBITDA |
2.3 |
-1.3 |
3.53 |
6.95 |
10.8 |
5.5 |
EBITDA margin |
6.1% |
-3.8% |
8.5% |
15.0% |
21.7% |
12.0% |
Total opex |
-36.5 |
-36 |
-42.1 |
-41 |
-40.8 |
-42.1 |
EBIT |
1.2 |
-2.2 |
-0.5 |
5.3 |
9 |
3.8 |
EBIT margin |
3.2% |
-6.5% |
-1.2% |
11.4% |
18.1% |
8.3% |
Profit before tax (as reported) |
1.5 |
-1.9 |
-0.3 |
5.7 |
9.3 |
4.3 |
Net income (as reported) |
0.4 |
-2.2 |
2.8 |
5.2 |
8 |
4 |
EPS (as reported) (€) |
0.08 |
-0.51 |
0.71 |
0.99 |
1.51 |
0.76 |
Dividend per share (€) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.41 |
0.23 |
Balance sheet |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total non-current assets |
1.9 |
2.7 |
14.4 |
14 |
11.5 |
16.1 |
Total current assets |
50.3 |
46.4 |
48.6 |
54.1 |
60.9 |
51.4 |
Total assets |
52.1 |
49.1 |
63 |
68.1 |
72.4 |
67.4 |
Total current liabilities |
-15.5 |
-15 |
-25.9 |
-18.7 |
-15.5 |
-18 |
Total non-current liabilities |
-2.9 |
-2.8 |
-2.9 |
-3.9 |
-2.8 |
-3 |
Total liabilities |
-18.3 |
-17.7 |
-28.7 |
-22.5 |
-18.2 |
-21 |
Total equity |
33.8 |
31.4 |
34.2 |
45.6 |
54.2 |
46.4 |
Cash flow statement |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net cash from operating activities |
4.2 |
3.3 |
4.5 |
5 |
5.3 |
8.3 |
Net cash from investing activities |
0.9 |
0 |
-6.1 |
-17.9 |
0.1 |
-10.4 |
Net cash from financing activities |
-0.6 |
-0.4 |
7.2 |
-0.7 |
-0.1 |
-11.5 |
Net cash flow |
4.4 |
-7.7 |
5.5 |
-13.5 |
5.3 |
-13.6 |
Cash |
29.5 |
21.8 |
27.4 |
13.8 |
19.1 |
5.5 |
Cash on deposit |
0 |
0 |
7.5 |
25 |
25 |
30.1 |
Net cash and equivalent |
29.5 |
21.8 |
34.9 |
38.8 |
44.1 |
35.6 |
Source: Company accounts
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Exhibit 2: Revenues by classification (€m) |
Exhibit 3: EBITDA and EBITDA margin profile |
|
|
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Source: Beta Systems, Edison Investment Research |
Source: Beta Systems, Edison Investment Research |
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Exhibit 2: Revenues by classification (€m) |
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Source: Beta Systems, Edison Investment Research |
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Exhibit 3: EBITDA and EBITDA margin profile |
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Source: Beta Systems, Edison Investment Research |
The group spent €9.9m on R&D in FY18 (22% of sales), up from €9.1m in FY17 (18% of sales), which was expensed as incurred. The group had 127 employees working in R&D at the period end, representing 39% of the group’s 322 total.
Net cash fell to €35.6m (including €30.1m on deposit) from €44.1m, due to the impact of a €11.5m share buyback and two acquisitions. The 23c dividend that has been proposed will cost c €1.1m, compared with 41c last year (€2.2m cost).
Divisional review and acquisitions
Revenues from the DCI division fell by 13% to €32.6m while IAM fell 10% to €11.4m. The addition of the new DIG division through the acquisition of LYNET, helped to moderate the group decline to 8%. Licence sales fell in both the continuing divisions due to the renewal cycle, which overshadowed a rise in new business in both divisions. Maintenance revenue increased, mainly due to acquisitions and services revenue jumped due to strong business in the DCI segment and the acquisition of LYNET - c 60% of LYNETs revenues are services. Other activities mainly comprise third-party hardware and software solutions in connection to LYNET products.
The group made two acquisitions in the period – LYNET and AUCONET.
Beta acquired LYNET, effective from 1 January 2018, for €2m. LYNET is an IT services, website design and e-commerce business that has operated for 22 years. LYNET has a broadly diversified customer base in northern Germany comprised of more than 450 small and medium-sized enterprises as well as public and social institutions. In FY18, LYNET contributed €1.9m revenues and EBITDA of €0.5m for the nine-month period. LYNET is being managed as an independent company within the group and comprises the group’s new DIG division.
Beta acquired the assets of the then AUCONET and the then AUCONET Technologies with effect from 31 January 2018 and 1 February 2018 respectively. The combined purchase price was €3m. AUCONET has been developing and selling IT operations management (IOM) software for more than 10 years, which complements Beta Systems' DCI product portfolio. In FY18, AUCONET contributed €1.1m revenues and an EBITDA loss of €1.1m for the eight-month period. AUCONET is budgeting for a small positive EBITDA in the FY18/19.
After the period-end, Beta acquired Categis for a nominal €1 with a further €125k payment expected in 2020. Categis is a small IT business based in Bad Brückenau, Bavaria, focused on medium-sized companies in the DACH region. Categis operates in two locations in India, via its Bangalore subsidiary, Categis Software. The primary objective of the acquisition is to access developer resources in India, in light of the challenging IT shortage of skilled workers in Germany.
Exhibit 4: Revenue breakdown (€m)
|
2017 |
2018 |
Change |
|||||||
|
DCI |
IAM |
Total |
DCI |
IAM |
DIG |
Total |
DCI |
IAM |
Total |
Licence |
16.3 |
2 |
18.3 |
10.0 |
1.7 |
0.0 |
11.8 |
(39%) |
(13%) |
(36%) |
Maintenance |
18.6 |
5.6 |
24.1 |
19.4 |
5.4 |
0.1 |
24.9 |
5% |
(4%) |
3% |
Services |
2.4 |
4.9 |
7.4 |
3.2 |
4.3 |
1.2 |
8.6 |
32% |
(13%) |
16% |
Other sales |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
Total |
37.3 |
12.6 |
49.8 |
32.6 |
11.4 |
1.9 |
45.9 |
(13%) |
(10%) |
(8%) |
Source: Beta Systems
Balance sheet and cash flow
Despite the profit decline, cash generation was strong with operating cash flow rising by c 57% to €8.3m. This was due to a big swing in working capital, which predominantly relates to the upfront revenue recognition policy. The company repurchased 0.5m of its shares in July 2018 at €23 per share, which resulted in a cash outflow of €11.5m whereas the acquisitions of LYNET and AUCONET cost €5.1m. Consequently, net cash fell to €35.6m from €44.1m a year earlier. The group has no debt. The latest net cash number includes €30.1m on deposit (with a c six-month notice to draw) as part of its arrangement with its largest shareholder, Deutsche Balaton. Hence the group has ample finances available to support ongoing portfolio development and modernisation as well as acquisitions.
Management guidance
Licences tend to be renewed on a three- to five-year cycle and FY17 benefited from a high number of large value clients renewing. However, this does not affect cash flows as the bulk of revenues are on a recurring rental basis.
FY19 management guidance is for revenues of €46.5–49.5m, which implies c 5% growth at the mid-point, and for EBITDA of €6.3–8.3m, ie with margins of c 15%. The EBIT guidance is €4.5–6.5m; we note the difference between EBITDA and EBIT is most explained by amortisation of acquired intangibles. For FY20, the guidance is for moderate revenue and EBITDA growth. Management has a long-term goal to achieve an EBITDA margin of 15–20%.
Exhibit 5: Management’s FY19e and FY20e guidance
€m |
FY14 |
FY15 |
FY16 |
FY17 |
FY18 |
FY19e |
FY20e |
Revenues |
33.8 |
41.6 |
46.4 |
49.8 |
45.9 |
46.5-49.5 |
moderate increase |
Licences |
7.6 |
10.4 |
14.5 |
18.3 |
11.8 |
11.5-12.5 |
|
Maintenance |
19.8 |
23 |
23.8 |
24.1 |
24.9 |
26-27 |
|
Other |
6.4 |
8.1 |
8 |
7.4 |
9.3 |
9-10 |
|
EBITDA |
-1.3 |
3.5 |
6.9 |
10.8 |
5.5 |
6.3-8.3 |
moderate increase |
EBITDA margin |
N/A |
8% |
15% |
22% |
12% |
15% |
|
Liquidity |
21.8 |
27.4 |
39 |
44.1 |
35.6 |
|
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Source: Company accounts
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