True North Gems
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True North Gems |
Breaking ground in Greenland |
Commencement of mining |
Metals & mining |
4 December 2015 |
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True North Gems is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Mining has started at the Aappaluttoq ruby and pink sapphire mine on schedule and budget, marking a significant milestone in True North Gems' (TGX) history. With specialised process equipment currently being shipped, the mining underway will form a stockpile of raw gemstone-bearing material for subsequent processing towards the end of Q116. While sales contracts are being finalised we suspend our small FY15 revenue assumption as it has a negligible effect on our base case value, reducing it by only 2.6%. Sales contracts for Aappaluttoq material remain the key near-term catalyst to re-rating True North’s shares.
Year end |
Revenue (C$m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/13 |
0.0 |
(1.7) |
(0.7) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/14 |
0.0 |
(1.4) |
(0.5) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/15e |
0.0 |
(5.2) |
(1.1) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/16e |
45.9 |
32.0 |
6.7 |
0.0 |
2.4 |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Base case uses low US$7/ct average stone price
Our valuation of True North Gems relies heavily on third-party pricing data for its rubies and pink sapphire, as detailed in the revised 2015 PFS. The average of all the rough and polished ruby and pink sapphire prices used is US$7/Ct. This price remains conservative in view of prices used to generate Gemfields’ reserve estimate for its Montepuez ruby deposit (see our October ’15 update note ‘funded through to production’ and April ’15 outlook note ‘Greenland’s ruby and pink sapphire mine’, for further information).
Valuation: Removing FY15 revenue has little effect
We have adjusted our financial model slightly for True North’s Q315 results and the removal of our C$5m FY15 sales revenue assumption. The latter is due to no sale of Aappaluttoq material expected by end 2015. We stress that this small amount of revenue only reduces our previous C$0.38/share discounted dividend flow valuation by 2.6% or C$0.01, demonstrating the longer-term value inherent in Aappaluttoq’s mine plan. True North’s Q315 results indicate expenditures of a company transitioning from the exploration stage into production with a l-f-l widening of its net loss from a very low C$0.7m to C$3.2m. We originally booked the entire C$20m in development capex for Aappaluttoq to FY15. However, with third-quarter accounts recording only C$3.2m, we pro-rata this amount to year end and book the balance of C$15.8m to FY16. On this basis and also on the assumptions governing our base case valuation (given in our April 2015 initiation note), our valuation of True North’s shares becomes C$0.37 using a 10% discount to reflect general equity risk. We revise our previous end-FY15 net debt position of C$11.4m to a net cash position of C$0.7m, reflecting the rescheduling of capex to FY16.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
C$000s |
2013 |
2014 |
2015e |
2016e |
||
Year-end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
45,854 |
Cost of Sales |
0 |
0 |
(1,749) |
(7,825) |
||
Gross Profit |
0 |
0 |
(1,749) |
38,029 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
(1,593) |
(1,222) |
(5,239) |
34,550 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
(1,593) |
(1,222) |
(5,239) |
32,034 |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
(1,593) |
(1,222) |
(5,239) |
32,034 |
||
Net Interest |
(57) |
(149) |
10 |
15 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(1,650) |
(1,371) |
(5,229) |
32,048 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
(1,650) |
(1,371) |
(5,229) |
32,048 |
Tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(841) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(1,650) |
(1,371) |
(5,229) |
31,207 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
(1,650) |
(1,371) |
(5,229) |
31,207 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
233.7 |
295.8 |
306.1 |
306.1 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
(0.7) |
(0.5) |
(1.1) |
6.7 |
EPS - normalised and fully diluted (c) |
|
(0.7) |
(0.5) |
(1.1) |
6.7 |
|
EPS - (IFRS) (c) |
|
|
(0.7) |
(0.5) |
(1.1) |
6.7 |
Dividend per share (c) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
#DIV/0! |
#DIV/0! |
#DIV/0! |
82.9 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
#DIV/0! |
#DIV/0! |
#DIV/0! |
75.3 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
#DIV/0! |
#DIV/0! |
#DIV/0! |
69.9 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
24,467 |
27,988 |
55,637 |
66,460 |
Intangible Assets |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Tangible Assets |
24,467 |
27,988 |
55,637 |
66,460 |
||
Investments |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
729 |
2,343 |
8,357 |
25,043 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
671 |
643 |
||
Debtors |
18 |
35 |
0 |
3,769 |
||
Cash |
271 |
1,989 |
7,367 |
20,312 |
||
Other |
440 |
319 |
319 |
319 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(1,390) |
(1,346) |
(939) |
(1,520) |
Creditors |
(1,390) |
(715) |
(307) |
(889) |
||
Short term borrowings |
0 |
(631) |
(631) |
(631) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(1,113) |
(1,160) |
(6,278) |
(4,980) |
Long term borrowings |
(894) |
(877) |
(5,995) |
(4,697) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(219) |
(283) |
(283) |
(283) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
22,694 |
27,825 |
56,777 |
85,002 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
(1,423) |
(1,800) |
(5,806) |
31,390 |
Net Interest |
(57) |
(149) |
10 |
15 |
||
Tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(841) |
||
Capex |
(2,091) |
(2,913) |
(4,270) |
(16,321) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
50 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
3,786 |
5,945 |
10,326 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
265 |
1,083 |
260 |
14,243 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
9 |
623 |
(481) |
(741) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(879) |
21 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
623 |
(481) |
(741) |
(14,984) |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
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