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Research: Industrials
Tyman’s trading update referenced firmer demand in two important European markets, some short-term input cost drag in North America and two small acquisitions, which enhance the group’s commercial and residential offerings respectively. Our small net EPS reduction for FY18 is followed by slightly larger upgrades in the following two years and, after a weak share price period, leaves Tyman trading on 7.7x P/E and 6.0x EV/EBITDA multiples in FY19 (first full year of acquisition contributions). Separately, Tyman has announced a CEO succession path with Louis Eperjesi to retire in June 2019, to be replaced by Jo Hallas (from Spectris).
Written by
Tyman |
Trading reasonable but share price weak |
Trading update |
Construction & materials |
21 November 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Tyman is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Tyman’s trading update referenced firmer demand in two important European markets, some short-term input cost drag in North America and two small acquisitions, which enhance the group’s commercial and residential offerings respectively. Our small net EPS reduction for FY18 is followed by slightly larger upgrades in the following two years and, after a weak share price period, leaves Tyman trading on 7.7x P/E and 6.0x EV/EBITDA multiples in FY19 (first full year of acquisition contributions). Separately, Tyman has announced a CEO succession path with Louis Eperjesi to retire in June 2019, to be replaced by Jo Hallas (from Spectris).
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/16 |
457.6 |
62.1 |
25.3 |
10.5 |
10.1 |
4.1 |
12/17 |
522.7 |
68.3 |
26.7 |
11.3 |
9.5 |
4.4 |
12/18e |
586.8 |
73.7 |
28.0 |
12.5 |
9.1 |
4.9 |
12/19e |
635.7 |
88.6 |
33.0 |
13.5 |
7.7 |
5.3 |
Note: *PBT and EPS (fully diluted) are normalised, as defined by Tyman, excluding intangible amortisation and exceptional items.
H2 trading update and two acquisitions
Tyman’s 10-month trading update included firmer conditions in the UK, Italy and China in H2 to date and slightly softer US new build start data were noted. Demand conditions elsewhere were similar to those seen in H1 and the company is on course to achieve underlying revenue growth for the year at AmesburyTruth (AT) and SchlegelGiesse (SG) with ERA broadly flat. In addition, acquisitions will benefit all three divisions, especially Ashland Hardware (AT) and Zoo Hardware (ERA), which have continued to perform well. In August, Tyman also bought Profab (ERA, commercial access doors) and Reguitti (SG, Italian residential door hardware manufacturer) for a combined EV of c £19m and annual revenue and EBIT of c £16.5m and £2.5–3m respectively. We have updated our estimates for these transactions, a small favourable £/U$ translation improvement compared to our previously published estimates. These effects are more than offset by a rising input cost pass-through lag in the US of c $5m; pressure here is considered temporary but we have made small reductions to our expected AT margins beyond FY18. The net impact is a c 4% reduction to FY18 earnings and c 2% enhancement in the next two years. Our end FY18 net debt projection is now c £219m, which is at the upper end of the company’s target range of 1.5–2.0x EBITDA (pro forma, annualised acquisition basis).
Valuation: Single digit P/E, dividend yield 4.9%
A healthy US economy and increasingly favourable £/U$ translation effect as the year has progressed (albeit broadly neutral y-o-y in H2) should have provided a favourable share price performance backdrop, in our view. However, Tyman’s share price has fallen by c 26% since the end of September. Investors appear to have taken a general (cycle and debt funding) risk-aversion stance and Tyman sentiment appears to be caught up in this. On our revised estimates, the current year P/E and EV/EBITDA are now 9.1x and 7.3x and both multiples reduce by around two points by FY20. The FY18e dividend yield has risen to 4.9%.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£'m |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
2020e |
||
December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|
|
Cont. |
Cont. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue |
|
|
216.3 |
228.8 |
298.1 |
350.9 |
353.4 |
457.6 |
522.7 |
586.8 |
635.7 |
652.6 |
Cost of Sales |
|
|
(145.2) |
(154.0) |
(198.8) |
(236.1) |
(234.0) |
(290.4) |
(331.8) |
(370.3) |
(400.6) |
(409.4) |
Gross Profit |
|
|
71.1 |
74.7 |
99.3 |
114.8 |
119.4 |
167.3 |
190.9 |
216.4 |
235.1 |
243.2 |
EBITDA |
|
|
27.7 |
28.5 |
39.4 |
54.6 |
60.9 |
82.5 |
91.7 |
100.0 |
117.7 |
123.2 |
Operating Profit (Edison) |
|
|
22.4 |
23.4 |
33.0 |
46.9 |
52.9 |
70.9 |
78.8 |
85.7 |
101.8 |
106.7 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(5.9) |
(3.3) |
(3.4) |
(4.5) |
(6.0) |
(6.9) |
(8.0) |
(10.4) |
(11.6) |
(10.8) |
Other Finance |
|
|
(3.6) |
(0.9) |
0.2 |
(2.2) |
(0.6) |
(0.4) |
(0.8) |
(0.7) |
(0.7) |
(0.7) |
Share Based Payments |
|
|
(0.2) |
(0.5) |
(0.7) |
(0.9) |
(1.0) |
(1.0) |
(2.0) |
(1.4) |
(1.4) |
(1.4) |
Intangible Amortisation |
|
|
(10.6) |
(10.8) |
(16.6) |
(17.8) |
(19.6) |
(21.7) |
(22.9) |
(26.0) |
(28.2) |
(28.2) |
Exceptionals |
|
|
0.7 |
(33.4) |
(11.4) |
(9.3) |
(9.4) |
(10.9) |
(10.0) |
(8.1) |
(2.9) |
(1.8) |
Other |
|
|
(0.1) |
(0.4) |
(0.4) |
(0.3) |
(0.4) |
(0.5) |
(0.6) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
Profit Before Tax (Edison norm) |
|
12.7 |
18.7 |
29.2 |
39.3 |
45.4 |
62.5 |
68.0 |
73.2 |
88.1 |
93.8 |
|
Profit Before Tax (Company norm) |
|
17.4 |
21.3 |
28.6 |
41.6 |
45.4 |
62.1 |
68.3 |
73.7 |
88.6 |
94.3 |
|
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
2.6 |
(25.8) |
0.8 |
11.9 |
16.1 |
29.4 |
34.5 |
38.9 |
56.8 |
63.6 |
Tax |
|
|
6.4 |
3.7 |
0.2 |
(2.6) |
(8.0) |
(8.6) |
(3.3) |
(11.6) |
(15.3) |
(16.9) |
Profit After Tax (norm) |
|
|
19.1 |
22.4 |
29.4 |
36.8 |
37.3 |
53.8 |
64.7 |
61.6 |
72.8 |
76.9 |
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
9.1 |
(22.1) |
1.0 |
9.3 |
8.1 |
20.7 |
31.2 |
27.3 |
41.5 |
46.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
|
129.7 |
129.7 |
152.8 |
167.8 |
168.2 |
173.0 |
177.2 |
191.4 |
194.8 |
194.8 |
|
EPS - Edison normalised (p) FD |
|
|
6.7 |
9.6 |
13.9 |
17.1 |
19.3 |
25.5 |
26.6 |
27.7 |
32.8 |
34.9 |
EPS - Company normalised (p) FD |
|
|
9.4 |
10.2 |
13.5 |
18.4 |
19.4 |
25.3 |
26.7 |
28.0 |
33.0 |
35.1 |
EPS - FRS 3 (p) |
|
|
6.8 |
(16.7) |
0.6 |
5.6 |
4.8 |
12.0 |
17.6 |
14.3 |
21.3 |
24.0 |
Dividend per share (p) |
|
|
3.4 |
4.5 |
6.0 |
8.0 |
8.8 |
10.5 |
11.3 |
12.5 |
13.5 |
14.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross Margin (%) |
|
|
32.9 |
32.7 |
33.3 |
32.7 |
33.8 |
36.5 |
36.5 |
36.9 |
37.0 |
37.3 |
EBITDA Margin (%) |
|
|
12.8 |
12.5 |
13.2 |
15.6 |
17.2 |
18.0 |
17.5 |
17.0 |
18.5 |
18.9 |
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
10.4 |
10.2 |
11.1 |
13.4 |
15.0 |
15.5 |
15.1 |
14.6 |
16.0 |
16.4 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
Cont. |
Cont. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fixed Assets |
|
|
352.8 |
298.1 |
404.2 |
410.6 |
398.4 |
564.7 |
511.5 |
595.2 |
575.5 |
553.2 |
Intangible Assets |
|
|
312.7 |
258.7 |
354.4 |
355.7 |
340.5 |
480.0 |
427.2 |
498.3 |
470.8 |
443.3 |
Tangible Assets |
|
|
30.5 |
29.8 |
39.9 |
42.9 |
42.8 |
71.7 |
68.4 |
85.1 |
90.7 |
95.9 |
Investments |
|
|
9.6 |
9.5 |
9.8 |
12.1 |
15.0 |
12.9 |
15.9 |
11.9 |
14.0 |
14.0 |
Current Assets |
|
|
96.4 |
90.7 |
118.9 |
124.0 |
111.0 |
180.6 |
188.1 |
235.2 |
272.5 |
315.1 |
Stocks |
|
|
26.6 |
27.6 |
40.7 |
47.6 |
46.0 |
70.7 |
75.3 |
98.1 |
102.1 |
104.3 |
Debtors |
|
|
49.3 |
27.3 |
34.7 |
37.1 |
35.0 |
69.0 |
70.2 |
84.6 |
87.4 |
89.3 |
Cash |
|
|
20.4 |
35.9 |
43.6 |
39.3 |
30.0 |
40.9 |
42.6 |
52.6 |
83.0 |
121.4 |
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(55.1) |
(44.2) |
(60.8) |
(52.3) |
(44.4) |
(86.4) |
(82.0) |
(89.5) |
(91.4) |
(94.9) |
Creditors |
|
|
(42.2) |
(36.7) |
(54.0) |
(52.3) |
(44.4) |
(86.4) |
(80.9) |
(89.5) |
(91.4) |
(94.9) |
Short term borrowings |
|
|
(12.9) |
(7.5) |
(6.8) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(1.1) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(144.8) |
(96.9) |
(161.7) |
(176.2) |
(156.7) |
(285.3) |
(251.4) |
(330.1) |
(329.3) |
(328.5) |
Long term borrowings |
|
|
(100.2) |
(63.6) |
(115.5) |
(128.0) |
(111.6) |
(216.5) |
(204.3) |
(271.5) |
(271.5) |
(271.5) |
Other long term liabilities |
|
|
(44.6) |
(33.3) |
(46.2) |
(48.2) |
(45.1) |
(68.8) |
(47.0) |
(58.6) |
(57.8) |
(57.1) |
Net Assets |
|
|
249.2 |
247.7 |
300.6 |
306.1 |
308.3 |
373.6 |
366.2 |
410.8 |
427.3 |
444.9 |
|
|
|
0.000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CASH FLOW |
|
|
Cont. |
Cont. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
32.6 |
23.6 |
38.9 |
40.1 |
49.4 |
79.9 |
67.0 |
82.7 |
105.3 |
117.5 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(6.7) |
(4.2) |
(2.6) |
(4.6) |
(6.2) |
(7.0) |
(7.6) |
(10.4) |
(11.6) |
(10.8) |
Tax |
|
|
(1.9) |
(4.9) |
(6.2) |
(6.3) |
(8.9) |
(12.7) |
(15.1) |
(10.1) |
(13.8) |
(15.4) |
Capex |
|
|
(4.9) |
(6.8) |
(8.1) |
(10.2) |
(10.9) |
(15.3) |
(12.6) |
(17.5) |
(22.3) |
(22.3) |
Acquisitions/disposals |
|
|
(10.3) |
51.2 |
(131.2) |
(6.5) |
6.8 |
(96.1) |
(6.3) |
(106.2) |
0.0 |
(1.5) |
Financing |
|
|
(0.3) |
(1.1) |
68.1 |
(4.3) |
(2.6) |
16.7 |
(0.8) |
47.1 |
(2.0) |
(2.0) |
Dividends |
|
|
(2.6) |
(5.8) |
(7.0) |
(10.9) |
(14.6) |
(15.6) |
(19.5) |
(21.2) |
(25.2) |
(27.2) |
Net Cash Flow |
|
|
6.0 |
51.9 |
(48.2) |
(2.8) |
13.0 |
(50.0) |
5.1 |
(35.6) |
30.5 |
38.4 |
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
91.7 |
92.7 |
35.2 |
78.7 |
88.7 |
81.6 |
175.6 |
162.9 |
218.9 |
188.4 |
HP finance leases initiated |
|
|
(2.7) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(2.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Other |
|
|
(4.4) |
5.6 |
4.7 |
(7.2) |
(5.9) |
(44.0) |
7.6 |
(18.5) |
0.0 |
(0.0) |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
92.7 |
35.2 |
78.7 |
88.7 |
81.6 |
175.6 |
162.9 |
218.9 |
188.4 |
150.0 |
Source: Company, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Industrials
Medserv has announced signing a contract for shore-base logistics in Suriname, a new geographic region for the company. End markets are supportive for the company and we believe tendering activity continues at a good level. Overall, FY18 has progressed well, with contract wins establishing the company on a broad geographic reach and underpinning growth expectations in FY19.