KEFI Gold and Copper — The finish line comes into sight

KEFI Gold and Copper (AIM: KEFI)

Last close As at 20/10/2025

GBP0.01

−0.32 (−18.60%)

Market capitalisation

GBP133m

More on this equity

Research: Metals & Mining

KEFI Gold and Copper — The finish line comes into sight

Yesterday evening KEFI announced the successful conclusion of US$240m in senior project debt capital for its Tulu Kapi project in Ethiopia (accounting for 70% of the total). Focus will now shift to closing the US$100m equity risk portion of project funding outstanding. At least US$40m of this has already been accounted for by KEFI itself and the Ethiopian government, with the balance of US$60m reported as being oversubscribed, with non-binding offers which the company can now finalise. Detailed documentation for the whole integrated package of equity, debt and insurance can now also be finalised and the company will convene general meetings of KEFI and its subsidiaries in November in order to approve those elements of the finance package requiring shareholder consent. KEFI will then also publish details of the finalised equity risk capital instruments employed, albeit they are already known to include a non-convertible preference share, a subordinated equity risk note structured as a ‘gold prepayment’ or ‘stream’ and ordinary equity at one or other Ethiopian subsidiary level to leave KEFI with a c 80% beneficial interest in Tulu Kapi. In the meantime, community resettlement continues apace at the same time as new all-weather access roads are constructed to site and the project is connected to Ethiopia’s electricity grid.

Lord Ashbourne

Written by

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Metals and mining

Senior debt financing successfully concluded

21 October 2025

Price 1.45p
Market cap £163m

US$1.3424/£

Net cash at end-June 2025

£1.1m

Shares in issue

9,489.4m
Free float 92.3%
Code KEFI
Primary exchange LSE
Secondary exchange N/A
Price Performance
% 1m 3m 12m
Abs 97.7 209.9 186.2
52-week high/low 1.8p 0.5p

Business description

KEFI Gold and Copper is an exploration and development company focused on gold and copper deposits in the highly prospective Arabian-Nubian Shield – namely the Tulu Kapi project in Ethiopia (projected 80% interest) and the Hawiah and Jibal Qutman projects (15%) held via its associate GMCO in Saudi Arabia.

Next events

Full Tulu Kapi project launch

H225

Tulu Kapi mining commissioning

Late 2026

First gold

Q427

Analyst

Lord Ashbourne
+44 (0)20 3077 5700

KEFI Gold and Copper is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Note: PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation and exceptional items.

Year end Revenue (£m) PBT (£m) EPS (p) DPS (p) P/E (x) Yield (%)
12/23 0.0 (4.6) (0.21) 0.00 N/A N/A
12/24 0.0 (8.9) (0.21) 0.00 N/A N/A
12/25e 0.0 (19.2) (0.23) 0.00 N/A N/A
12/26e 0.0 (1.0) (0.01) 0.00 N/A N/A

Project NPVs suggest a valuation of 4.82p/share

In March, KEFI calculated an updated project NPV5 for Tulu Kapi of c US$690m at construction start, at a conservative long-term gold price of US$2,400/oz, of which KEFI’s c 80% share is worth US$552m, or £411m (4.33p/share), pro rata. Its 15% interests in Jibal Qutman and Hawiah potentially add a further 0.48p/share to this figure, to take the total to 4.82p/share.

Valuation: Current metals prices suggest 11.19p/share

At Edison’s long-term gold price of US$1,866/oz (in real, 2025 US$ terms), we calculate that Tulu Kapi (plus its 15% interest in Saudi Arabian joint venture, GMCO) is capable of generating average annual free cash flows to KEFI of c £100.2m in FY29–34 (cf £99.4m previously), making average (maximum potential) dividends of 0.50p/share per year possible. Discounting this flow of dividends to present value at a discount rate of 10% per year suggests a valuation for KEFI of 1.59p/share (cf 1.65p previously) after the exercise of broker warrants. An underground mine adds a further 0.20p/share (12.5%) to this valuation. However, at current metals prices ( US$4,000/oz Au, US$10,604/t Cu, US$2,933/t Zn and US$52.50/oz Ag), our average annual free cash flow estimate rises almost three times to £295.2m per year and our valuation by 4.5x to 7.21p now (plus a further 1.01p/share for the underground mine) and to 9.66p (plus 1.53p) in FY29. For buyers of the shares now, this implies an internal rate of return on their investment of 47.7% in sterling terms to FY37.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by KEFI Gold and Copper and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by KEFI Gold and Copper. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright 2025 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or sol icitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

More on KEFI Gold and Copper

View All

Metals & Mining

KEFI Gold and Copper — Code word imminent

Metals & Mining

KEFI Gold and Copper — New beginnings

Metals & Mining

KEFI Gold and Copper — Clearing the decks

Latest from the Metals & Mining sector

View All Metals & Mining content

Metals & Mining

Barton Gold — Developing apace

Metals & Mining

Canyon Resources — Major funding package

Research: Industrials

Aamal Company — Diversified portfolio underpins 9M25 results

Aamal Company reported a solid 9M25 performance, with net profit attributable to shareholders up 8.2% year-on-year to QAR327.3m, supported by resilient margins across its diversified portfolio. EPS increased to QAR0.052 from QAR0.048, while total revenue declined slightly by 2.1% to QAR1,564m and gross profit eased by 1.6% to QAR386m. The results underline the stability of Aamal’s business model and continued progress across Property, Industrial Manufacturing and Managed Services. We maintain our valuation of QAR1.22/share, which represents c 45% upside to the current share price.

Continue Reading

Subscribe to Edison

Get access to the very latest content matched to your personal investment style.

Sign up for free