Group revenues increased 4.8% at constant exchange rates (CER) in H118, with all four regions of operation seeing improvements (UK: 35% of H118 group sales, Europe: 36%, Asia: 26% and the US: 3%). Gross profit margins fell 140bp, largely due to input cost inflation in Europe resulting from continued weakness of the euro against the US dollar, but remained slightly above the 30% target. However, good overhead control allowed operating margins to be held close to the previous year level at 11.3%.
Exhibit 1: Trifast half-yearly income statement and estimates summary
£000s |
2017 |
2018e |
% change |
|
H1 |
H2 |
FY |
H1 |
H2e |
FYe |
H1 |
H2e |
FYe |
Revenues |
89,747 |
96,765 |
186,512 |
97,813 |
101,248 |
199,061 |
9.0% |
4.6% |
6.7% |
Cost of sales |
-61,347 |
-67,148 |
-128,495 |
-68,311 |
-70,435 |
-138,746 |
11.4% |
4.9% |
8.0% |
Gross profit |
28400 |
29,617 |
58,017 |
29,502 |
30,814 |
60,316 |
3.9% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
Gross Margin |
31.6% |
30.6% |
31.1% |
30.2% |
30.4% |
30.3% |
|
|
|
EBITDA |
11,238 |
11,630 |
22,868 |
12,066 |
11,390 |
23,456 |
7.4% |
-2.1% |
2.6% |
OPBIT (underlying) |
10,262 |
10,756 |
21,018 |
11,131 |
10,513 |
21,644 |
8.5% |
-2.3% |
3.0% |
Exceptional items |
-1484 |
-1,673 |
-3,157 |
-1,791 |
-1,532 |
-3,323 |
20.7% |
-38.3% |
-10.6% |
Financial Items |
-313 |
-208 |
-521 |
-222 |
-145 |
-367 |
-29.1% |
-30.2% |
-29.5% |
Pre-tax profit (underlying) |
9,949 |
10,548 |
20,497 |
10,909 |
10,368 |
21,277 |
9.6% |
-1.7% |
3.8% |
Taxation |
-2336 |
-2,499 |
-4,835 |
-2,541 |
-2,459 |
-5,000 |
8.8% |
-1.6% |
3.4% |
Tax rate |
-23.5% |
-23.7% |
-23.6% |
-23.3% |
-23.7% |
-23.5% |
|
|
|
Net income (ongoing underlying) |
7,613 |
8,049 |
15,662 |
8,368 |
7,909 |
16,277 |
9.9% |
-1.7% |
3.9% |
EPS (p) - ongoing underlying diluted |
6.27 |
|
12.82 |
6.78 |
|
13.19 |
8.1% |
|
2.8% |
DPS (p) |
1.00 |
2.5 |
3.50 |
1.10 |
1.10 |
3.65 |
10.0% |
|
4.3% |
Source: Company reports, Edison Investment Research estimates
First half performance in the UK saw sales rise by 4.1% to £35.4m, driven by strong distributor sales to mainland Europe as well as extended contract values at key OEMs. Underlying operating margins improved 190bp as the anticipated higher input costs arising from a weaker sterling were offset by FX gains on euro-based distributor sales. The UK business also benefited from continued overhead reduction.
In Europe, growth was steady at 2.4% CER, with reported sales rising 9.8% to £36.1m. In the demand segments, automotive growth is noted as being particularly strong, aided by share gains from recent investments. The overall growth was achieved despite some ongoing reduction in demand at a large domestic appliance customer following a previous product recall that had inflated volumes. The underlying operating margin performance was less favourable in the region with a 540bp fall to 10.9%. The fall arose from a combination of expected higher US$-based input costs, which depressed gross margin, especially in Italy, compounded by increased fixed production costs following the debottlenecking investment programme, as well as an increase in overheads. The overhead increase was largely due to expected start-up costs at the greenfield site in Spain.
Asia continued to grow strongly, with sales up 10.7% at CER, and reported sales rising 16.8% to £29.6m. Strong demand was seen by the domestic appliances business in Singapore as well as new business wins in the automotive sector for the operations in China, Malaysia and Taiwan. Underlying operating margins rose by 170bp to 14.7% largely due to operational leverage.
In the small US activity, the anticipated double-digit like-for-like sales growth in the period was adversely affected by disruption to electronics manufacturer sales caused by Hurricane Harvey. Sales rose by 3.7% to £3.1m or 10% on a reported basis to £3.3m, with a 190bp decline in underlying operating margin to 3.7% also reflecting continued investment to support future growth.
Net debt finished the half year at £7.9m, which represented an outflow of just £0.3m allowing for the £1.2m outflow of cash held over the year end to settle National Insurance and income tax liabilities that related to the chairman’s option exercise in February 2017.
At the end of the first half, Trifast had headroom of £16.2m in its banking facility, as well as access to a £20m accordion facility, which combine to provide significant funding resource for acquisitions and organic investment. Organic investment programmes in the current year include expansion of the Singapore facility as well as the operations in Shanghai, China. The recent investments in Spain and Italy are already starting to bear fruit. In addition to the ongoing expansion of the warehousing facility in Northern Ireland, new warehousing in Holland and a TR Innovation & Technical Centre in Sweden are also planned. The company continues to invest in its US team to support future growth in this still relatively nascent territory for Trifast.
We believe Trifast continues to seek M&A opportunities at appropriate returns and management has become increasingly proactive in identifying potential targets.
We have again increased our expectations for FY18, reflecting the strength of the H1 improvement. We are now looking for 6% top-line growth at actual exchange rates compared to 3% previously, but continue to anticipate a squeeze on gross margins in H218 as UK input cost increases are absorbed, and the offset from FX gains on distributor sales from the UK that helped in the first half diminishes.
We now forecast 4% improvement in profit before tax for FY18 compared to the marginal increase previously, with further modest progress anticipated in FY19. We continue to believe that a cautious stance is warranted by the uncertainties that Brexit negotiations, global trade policies, FX rates and geopolitics continue to cause. We have reduced our underlying tax rate expectation to 23.5% from 25.0% previously, reflecting H1 performance, which results in a 5% upgrade in FY18e fully diluted EPS expectations to 13.19p.
We estimate year-end net debt at just over £5m which, together with the existing financing facilities, provides a sound financial platform for any appropriate deals that may appear. We expect the investment strategy to continue to deliver consistent earnings growth in the absence of any adverse macro developments.
Exhibit 2: Trifast earnings revisions
£m |
2018e |
2019e |
|
Prior |
New |
% change |
Prior |
New |
% change |
UK |
68.0 |
69.2 |
1.8% |
69.3 |
70.5 |
1.8% |
Europe |
68.7 |
71.3 |
3.7% |
70.1 |
72.7 |
3.7% |
USA |
6.5 |
6.5 |
0.0% |
7.1 |
7.1 |
0.0% |
Asia |
48.9 |
52.1 |
6.7% |
51.3 |
54.7 |
6.7% |
Total group sales |
192.0 |
199.1 |
3.7% |
197.9 |
205.1 |
3.7% |
EBITDA |
22.9 |
23.5 |
2.2% |
24.0 |
24.1 |
0.3% |
UK |
6.1 |
8.1 |
32.9% |
6.4 |
7.8 |
21.7% |
Europe |
9.6 |
7.8 |
-19.2% |
9.8 |
8.0 |
-18.5% |
USA |
0.5 |
0.3 |
-28.6% |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.0% |
Asia |
8.6 |
9.1 |
6.7% |
9.0 |
9.6 |
6.7% |
HQ Other and intersegment |
-3.7 |
-3.7 |
0.0% |
-3.7 |
-3.7 |
0.0% |
EBIT (Pre PPA amortisation) |
21.0 |
21.6 |
2.8% |
22.0 |
22.2 |
0.8% |
Underlying PBT |
20.7 |
21.3 |
2.9% |
21.7 |
21.9 |
0.7% |
EPS - underlying continuing fully diluted (p) |
12.56 |
13.19 |
4.9% |
13.15 |
13.51 |
2.8% |
DPS (p) |
3.65 |
3.65 |
0.0% |
3.80 |
3.80 |
0.0% |
Net cash/(debt) |
(4.9) |
(5.1) |
4.1% |
1.0 |
0.1 |
n.m. |
Source: Edison Investment Research estimates
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
|
|
£000s |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
Year end 31 March |
|
|
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
PROFIT & LOSS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue |
|
|
161,370 |
186,512 |
199,061 |
205,126 |
Cost of Sales |
|
|
(113,366) |
(128,495) |
(138,746) |
(142,973) |
Gross Profit |
|
|
48,004 |
58,017 |
60,316 |
62,153 |
EBITDA |
|
|
18,150 |
22,868 |
23,456 |
24,075 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
16,793 |
21,018 |
21,644 |
22,208 |
Intangible Amortisation |
|
|
(974) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Exceptionals |
|
|
(264) |
(1,645) |
(1,123) |
(1.123) |
Other |
|
|
(1,687) |
(1,512) |
(2,200) |
(2,200) |
Operating Profit |
|
|
13,868 |
17,861 |
18,321 |
20,229 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(791) |
(521) |
(367) |
(318) |
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
16,002 |
20,497 |
21,277 |
21,891 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
13,077 |
17,340 |
17,954 |
18,568 |
Tax |
|
|
(3,984) |
(4,835) |
(5,000) |
(5,144) |
Profit After Tax (norm) |
|
|
12,018 |
15,662 |
16,277 |
16,746 |
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
10,225 |
12,698 |
13,735 |
14,204 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
|
116.4 |
118.5 |
119.8 |
120.3 |
EPS - (p) |
|
|
10.33 |
13.22 |
13.59 |
13.92 |
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
9.99 |
12.82 |
13.19 |
13.51 |
EPS - (IFRS) (p) |
|
|
8.79 |
10.72 |
11.47 |
11.81 |
Dividend per share (p) |
|
|
2.80 |
3.50 |
3.65 |
3.80 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross Margin (%) |
|
|
29.7 |
31.1 |
30.3 |
30.3 |
EBITDA Margin (%) |
|
|
11.2 |
12.3 |
11.8 |
11.7 |
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
|
10.4 |
11.3 |
10.9 |
10.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fixed Assets |
|
|
55,430 |
58,940 |
59,589 |
60,291 |
Intangible Assets |
|
|
38,259 |
39,682 |
38,559 |
37,436 |
Tangible Assets |
|
|
17,171 |
19,258 |
21,030 |
22,855 |
Investments |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Current Assets |
|
|
102,603 |
118,290 |
124,585 |
129,393 |
Stocks |
|
|
39,438 |
41,926 |
45,227 |
46,605 |
Debtors |
|
|
43,386 |
49,360 |
52,154 |
55,384 |
Cash |
|
|
17,614 |
24,645 |
24,645 |
24,645 |
Other |
|
|
2,165 |
2,359 |
2,559 |
2,759 |
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(52,813) |
(54,564) |
(51,765) |
(44,724) |
Creditors |
|
|
(35,879) |
(39,692) |
(39,893) |
(38,852) |
Short term borrowings |
|
|
(16,934) |
(14,872) |
(11,872) |
(5,872) |
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(21,470) |
(20,968) |
(22,748) |
(23,468) |
Long term borrowings |
|
|
(16,675) |
(16,221) |
(17,922) |
(18,643) |
Other long term liabilities |
|
|
(4,795) |
(4,747) |
(4,825) |
(4,825) |
Net Assets |
|
|
83,750 |
101,698 |
109,661 |
121,491 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
15,873 |
22,887 |
17,894 |
18,847 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(804) |
(521) |
(367) |
(318) |
Tax |
|
|
(3,080) |
(5,136) |
(5,000) |
(5,144) |
Capex |
|
|
(2,323) |
(2,948) |
(3,583) |
(3,692) |
Acquisitions/disposals |
|
|
(7,684) |
(1,471) |
0 |
0 |
Financing |
|
|
(2,122) |
46 |
(3,500) |
0 |
Dividends |
|
|
(2,440) |
(3,310) |
(4,145) |
(4,413) |
Net Cash Flow |
|
|
(2,580) |
9,547 |
1,299 |
5,279 |
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
13,415 |
15,995 |
6,448 |
5,149 |
HP finance leases initiated |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Other |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
15,995 |
6,448 |
5,149 |
(130) |
Source: Company reports, Edison Investment Research estimates
Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Trifast and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investments Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (ACH 161 453 872) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent. |
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Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Trifast and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investments Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (ACH 161 453 872) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent. |
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Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342 Level 12, Office 1205 95 Pitt Street, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia |
Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960 Schumannstrasse 34b 60325 Frankfurt Germany |
London +44 (0)20 3077 5700 280 High Holborn London, WC1V 7EE United Kingdom |
New York +1 646 653 7026 295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor 10017, New York US |
Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342 Level 12, Office 1205 95 Pitt Street, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia |
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