SNP Schneider-Neureither
Written by
SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner |
Activity in FY16 remains buoyant |
Annual report |
Software & comp services |
7 April 2016 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
SNP Schneider Neureither is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Activity remains brisk at SNP, with utilisation rates very high, as the company continues to benefit from favourable structural growth drivers, the partnership with SAP, along with its elevated profile in wake of the landmark Hewlett-Packard deal of 2015. SNP has been winning new business with household names in the US including Kellogg’s. The outlook is supported by the group’s broadening global infrastructure following recent acquisitions, along with two training schemes in the US and Germany which represent an important part of the next growth phase. Given the buoyant backdrop, we continue to believe the shares look attractive trading on c 18x our edged-up FY17 earnings.
Year end |
Revenue (€m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/14 |
30.5 |
(0.1) |
(13.9) |
13.0 |
N/A |
0.4 |
12/15 |
56.2 |
3.4 |
58.8 |
34.0 |
52.4 |
1.1 |
12/16e |
75.2 |
6.9 |
124.1 |
40.0 |
24.8 |
1.3 |
12/17e |
88.4 |
9.6 |
173.2 |
50.0 |
17.8 |
1.6 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Final results: Investing for growth
FY15 numbers were broadly in line with the provisional results, announced in late January. Revenues jumped 84.5% to €56.2m, including €8.8m from RSP, acquired in early 2015, and 56% organic growth. The operating margin dipped in Q4, largely due to the establishment of a training programme in the US, which, along with costs associated with the recent acquisitions, are expected to hold down the near-term operating margin by 300-400bp. Nevertheless, we still expect margins to trend higher over the medium term. The training programmes in the US and Germany are each expected to produce around 40 new fully trained IT consultants in 2016, which is expected to lift total headcount from c 600 now towards 700 at the end of the year. The dividend was lifted by more than we had expected to 34c. The business themes differ markedly in North America and Europe – SNP is helping its US customers shift their IT systems to the cloud while in Europe, customers are primarily focused on switching their ERP systems to S/4HANA.
Forecasts: FY17 edged up, FY18 introduced
SNP is maintaining its FY16 revenue guidance of €72-78m, and is introducing EBIT margin guidance of 8-10%. These margins are after the costs associated with the training schemes and acquisition transaction costs. We have broadly maintained our FY16 forecasts, while edging up FY17 revenues and profits. Our year-end cash targets fall back due to lower-than-expected FY15 operating cash flow, mainly due to a €2m reduction in creditors, relating to a one off payment for licences.
Valuation: Strong growth play in the ERP space
The stock trades on c 25x our FY16e EPS, falling to c 18x in FY17e and to c 14x in FY18e. We believe the ratings continue to look attractive given the forecast strong growth and continued margin recovery potential.
Quarterly analysis and forecasts
Quarterly revenues were all substantially ahead of the prior corresponding periods in FY14. FY15 bookings were €59.2m, giving a book-to-bill ratio of 1.05x, while in Q4 bookings were €12.9m. The group ended the year with a backlog of €20.2m. This backlog, along with revenues from the recent acquisitions of Astrums and Hartung in Asia, and the pipeline help to underpin our FY16 forecasts.
Exhibit 1: Quarterly analysis
2014 |
2014 |
2014 |
2014 |
2014 |
2015 |
2015 |
2015 |
2015 |
2015 |
|
€'000 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
FY |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
FY |
Professional services |
5,516 |
6,061 |
5,393 |
5,772 |
22,742 |
9,495 |
12,909 |
12,200 |
12,264 |
46,868 |
Licences |
2,101 |
1,129 |
1,263 |
1,908 |
6,401 |
1,820 |
1,406 |
1,957 |
2,254 |
7,437 |
Maintenance |
385 |
323 |
298 |
330 |
1,336 |
863 |
368 |
350 |
350 |
1,931 |
Total revenue |
8,002 |
7,513 |
6,954 |
8,010 |
30,480 |
12,178 |
14,683 |
14,507 |
14,868 |
56,236 |
Op costs (before depn) |
(7,092) |
(7,467) |
(7,387) |
(7,672) |
(29,618) |
(10,915) |
(13,268) |
(12,880) |
(13,689) |
(50,752) |
Adjusted EBITDA |
910 |
46 |
(433) |
338 |
862 |
1,263 |
1,415 |
1,627 |
1,179 |
5,484 |
Depreciation |
(205) |
(211) |
(200) |
(312) |
(928) |
(249) |
(334) |
(280) |
(399) |
(1,262) |
Adjusted operating profit |
705 |
(165) |
(633) |
27 |
(66) |
1,014 |
1,081 |
1,347 |
780 |
4,222 |
Operating Margin |
8.8% |
(2.2%) |
(6.8%) |
17.4% |
(0.2%) |
8.3% |
7.4% |
9.3% |
5.2% |
7.5% |
Net interest |
(22) |
(14) |
(17) |
(13) |
(66) |
(109) |
(204) |
(271) |
(244) |
(828) |
Edison PBT (norm) |
683 |
(179) |
(650) |
14 |
(132) |
905 |
877 |
1,076 |
536 |
3,394 |
Associates |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(3) |
(3) |
Earnout adjustments* |
0 |
0 |
700 |
805 |
1,505 |
0 |
0 |
356 |
0 |
356 |
Profit before tax (FRS 3) |
683 |
(179) |
50 |
819 |
1,373 |
905 |
877 |
1,432 |
533 |
3,747 |
Source: SNP
We have broadly maintained our FY16 forecasts, edged up FY17 forecasts, and introduced FY18. We forecast group revenues to rise 34% in FY16 to €75.2m (middle of company guidance), which includes the two Asian acquisitions. We forecast revenues to increase by 18% in FY17 to €88.4m (previously €85.9m) and then by 13% in FY18 to €100.0m. Our FY16 EPS is steady at 124c, while FY17 EPS rises by 4% to 173c. We forecast operating margins to continue to firm as the business gains scale and further develops its software offerings.
Exhibit 2: Forecasts
(€'000s) |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016e |
2017e |
2018e |
Revenue |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Professional services |
18,696 |
22,742 |
46,868 |
64,316 |
76,019 |
86,442 |
Software licences |
4,036 |
6,401 |
7,437 |
8,062 |
8,868 |
9,755 |
Software maintenance |
804 |
1,336 |
1,931 |
2,800 |
3,500 |
3,850 |
Total software |
4,840 |
7,737 |
9,368 |
10,862 |
12,368 |
13,605 |
Group revenue |
23,536 |
30,480 |
56,236 |
75,179 |
88,387 |
100,047 |
Growth (%) |
(13.3) |
29.5 |
84.5 |
33.7 |
17.6 |
13.2 |
Professional services contribution |
(1,160) |
1,162 |
4,936 |
6,432 |
7,982 |
9,725 |
Software contribution |
580 |
1,787 |
2,290 |
4,888 |
6,184 |
7,483 |
Non-segment-related expenses |
(2,339) |
(3,585) |
(3,272) |
(4,275) |
(4,506) |
(4,725) |
Other operating income & other taxes |
205 |
570 |
268 |
680 |
716 |
751 |
Adjusted operating profit |
(2,714) |
(66) |
4,222 |
7,724 |
10,377 |
13,234 |
Operating profit margin (%) |
(11.5) |
(0.2) |
7.5 |
10.3 |
11.7 |
13.2 |
Net interest |
(85) |
(66) |
(828) |
(775) |
(775) |
(775) |
Profit before tax norm |
(2,799) |
(132) |
3,394 |
6,949 |
9,602 |
12,459 |
Associates |
0 |
0 |
(3) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Exceptional items |
0 |
1,505 |
356 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Profit before tax |
(2,799) |
1,373 |
3,747 |
6,949 |
9,602 |
12,459 |
Taxation |
477 |
(344) |
(1,195) |
(2,085) |
(2,880) |
(3,738) |
Non-controlling interests |
(84) |
(40) |
0 |
(225) |
(248) |
(267) |
FRS 3 net income |
(2,405) |
988 |
2,552 |
4,639 |
6,474 |
8,454 |
Adjusted EPS (c) |
(64.7) |
(13.9) |
58.8 |
124.1 |
173.2 |
226.2 |
P/E - Adjusted EPS |
N/A |
N/A |
52.4 |
24.8 |
17.8 |
13.6 |
Source: SNP (historicals), Edison Investment Research (forecasts)
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
€'000s |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016e |
2017e |
2018e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
23,536 |
30,480 |
56,236 |
75,179 |
88,387 |
100,047 |
Cost of sales |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Gross Profit |
23,536 |
30,480 |
56,236 |
75,179 |
88,387 |
100,047 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
(1,972) |
862 |
5,484 |
9,077 |
11,804 |
14,917 |
Adjusted Operating Profit |
|
|
(2,714) |
(66) |
4,222 |
7,724 |
10,377 |
13,234 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
1,505 |
356 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Associates |
0 |
0 |
(3) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
(2,714) |
1,439 |
4,575 |
7,724 |
10,377 |
13,234 |
||
Net Interest |
(85) |
(66) |
(828) |
(775) |
(775) |
(775) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(2,799) |
(132) |
3,394 |
6,949 |
9,602 |
12,459 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
(2,799) |
1,373 |
3,747 |
6,949 |
9,602 |
12,459 |
Tax |
477 |
(344) |
(1,195) |
(2,085) |
(2,880) |
(3,738) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(2,322) |
(477) |
2,198 |
4,864 |
6,721 |
8,721 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
(2,322) |
1,028 |
2,552 |
4,864 |
6,721 |
8,721 |
||
Minority interest |
(84) |
(40) |
0 |
(225) |
(248) |
(267) |
||
Adjustments for normalised earnings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net income (norm) |
(2,405) |
(517) |
2,198 |
4,639 |
6,474 |
8,454 |
||
Net income (FRS 3) |
(2,405) |
988 |
2,552 |
4,639 |
6,474 |
8,454 |
||
Average No of Shares Outstanding (m) |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
(64.7) |
(13.9) |
58.8 |
124.1 |
173.2 |
226.2 |
EPS - normalised & fully diluted (c) |
|
|
(64.7) |
(13.9) |
58.8 |
124.1 |
173.2 |
226.2 |
EPS - FRS 3 (c) |
|
|
(64.7) |
26.6 |
68.3 |
124.1 |
173.2 |
226.2 |
Dividend per share (c) |
8.00 |
13.00 |
34.00 |
40.00 |
50.00 |
60.00 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
-8.4 |
2.8 |
9.8 |
12.1 |
13.4 |
14.9 |
||
Adjusted Operating Margin (%) |
-11.5 |
-0.2 |
7.5 |
10.3 |
11.7 |
13.2 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
7,759 |
8,291 |
15,243 |
25,394 |
25,734 |
26,052 |
Intangible Assets |
5,194 |
5,190 |
11,675 |
21,675 |
21,675 |
21,675 |
||
Tangible Assets |
1,070 |
1,231 |
1,999 |
2,149 |
2,489 |
2,807 |
||
Other |
1,496 |
1,871 |
1,570 |
1,570 |
1,570 |
1,570 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
16,145 |
17,882 |
29,996 |
33,120 |
41,534 |
46,652 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
9,105 |
11,286 |
16,084 |
21,502 |
25,280 |
28,615 |
||
Cash |
6,355 |
5,681 |
13,769 |
11,475 |
16,111 |
17,895 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(5,804) |
(9,782) |
(13,703) |
(18,925) |
(22,387) |
(25,333) |
Creditors |
(5,204) |
(9,182) |
(11,101) |
(16,323) |
(19,785) |
(22,731) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(600) |
(600) |
(2,602) |
(2,602) |
(2,602) |
(2,602) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(4,338) |
(2,501) |
(15,513) |
(20,013) |
(20,013) |
(15,513) |
Long term borrowings |
(2,250) |
(1,650) |
(12,344) |
(12,344) |
(12,344) |
(12,344) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(2,088) |
(851) |
(3,169) |
(7,669) |
(7,669) |
(3,169) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
13,762 |
13,890 |
16,024 |
19,576 |
24,868 |
31,858 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
(2,110) |
2,579 |
1,879 |
8,701 |
11,362 |
14,417 |
Net Interest |
4 |
(66) |
(167) |
(775) |
(775) |
(775) |
||
Tax |
(1,062) |
(1,102) |
(554) |
(1,946) |
(2,688) |
(3,488) |
||
Capex |
(230) |
(701) |
(1,779) |
(1,504) |
(1,768) |
(2,001) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(2,267) |
(500) |
(3,228) |
(5,500) |
0 |
(4,500) |
||
Shares issued |
(35) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(937) |
(335) |
(483) |
(1,271) |
(1,495) |
(1,869) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(6,638) |
(124) |
(4,332) |
(2,294) |
4,636 |
1,784 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(10,152) |
(3,505) |
(3,431) |
1,176 |
3,470 |
(1,166) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(10) |
51 |
(275) |
0 |
0 |
() |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(3,505) |
(3,431) |
1,176 |
3,470 |
(1,166) |
(2,949) |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|