The primary focus in FY18 was on integrating the recent acquisitions and positioning the business for growth in anticipation of the emerging digitisation wave. FY18 revenues of c €131m were below our forecast of €137.9m. Nevertheless, H2 adjusted EBITDA saw a c €5.4m improvement over H1 reflecting significant operational improvements. We have trimmed our FY19–20 revenue forecasts by 4–5% and adjusted EBITDA by 5–7%. Meanwhile, a key appointment has been made to drive sales in North America and SNP is close to announcing the hire of a new COO. SNP has a number of recent successful pilots, which it is optimistic will convert into larger projects. While the shares look punchy on c 32x our FY19e EPS, the rating could fall quickly as new projects come through.
Written by
SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner |
Significant operational improvements in H2 |
Provisional FY18 results |
Software & comp services |
7 February 2019 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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The primary focus in FY18 was on integrating the recent acquisitions and positioning the business for growth in anticipation of the emerging digitisation wave. FY18 revenues of c €131m were below our forecast of €137.9m. Nevertheless, H2 adjusted EBITDA saw a c €5.4m improvement over H1 reflecting significant operational improvements. We have trimmed our FY19–20 revenue forecasts by 4–5% and adjusted EBITDA by 5–7%. Meanwhile, a key appointment has been made to drive sales in North America and SNP is close to announcing the hire of a new COO. SNP has a number of recent successful pilots, which it is optimistic will convert into larger projects. While the shares look punchy on c 32x our FY19e EPS, the rating could fall quickly as new projects come through.
Year end |
Revenue |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/17 |
122.3 |
3.8 |
61.9 |
0.0 |
27.3 |
0.0 |
12/18e |
131.0 |
(2.5) |
(36.4) |
0.0 |
N/A |
0.0 |
12/19e |
147.5 |
5.5 |
53.6 |
25.0 |
31.5 |
1.5 |
12/20e |
160.0 |
10.3 |
104.5 |
33.0 |
16.2 |
2.0 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Trading update: Sales below, EBITDA roughly in line
FY18 revenues were c €131m and IFRS EBITDA was c €2.8m (we forecast €3.0m, with no additional exceptional items in Q4). The numbers imply that while Q4 software sales were not as good as expected, cost savings made during the year largely made up the difference. Headcount was reduced by 8% in Germany in H2 while total group headcount was reduced by 4% over the year. Management now anticipates FY19 sales of €145–150m while no profit guidance has yet been given.
Management changes: New boss for North America
SNP has hired an industry veteran to drive its growth strategy in North America. The company is close to announcing the hire of a new chief operating officer (COO) who will be responsible for day-to-day operations in both sales and consulting. This will be the first time SNP has had a role in charge of both these areas and it will increase the number of managing directors to three (CEO, CFO and COO).
Forecast changes: Revenues and profits trimmed
We have reduced our FY18 revenue and EBITDA forecasts in line with guidance. For FY19 and FY20, we have cut our revenue forecasts by 4% to €147.5m and €160m respectively, which still reflects attractive growth rates of 13% and 8%. We have cut adjusted EBITDA forecasts by 5% in FY19 to €10.4m and by 7% in FY20 to €15.1m, reflecting EBITDA margins of 7.0% and 9.4% respectively.
Valuation: Strong growth play in the ERP space
The stock trades on c 32x our earnings in FY19e, falling to c 16x in FY20e. Our discounted cash flow valuation (based on c 5.8% organic revenue CAGR over 10 years, 10% WACC, 14.0% long-term operating margin and 2% terminal growth) is €27/share, c 60% above the current share price.
Trading update: Substantial H2 improvement
Group revenues rose by 7% to €131m, including full period contributions from SNP Poland, Innoplexia and ADEPCON (Argentina), which were all acquired during FY17. There was an organic revenue decline of c 5% in Germany and the US, largely due to lower professional services utilisation rates and lower than expected proprietary software sales following S/4HANA project deferrals. Nevertheless, management’s efforts to streamline the business resulted in a significant improvement in profitability in H2 over H1. IFRS EBITDA swung from a €3.5m loss in H1 to a €6.3m profit in H2, while non-IFRS adjusted EBITDA swung from a €1.7m loss in H1 to a €3.7m profit in H2. This equates to an H2-adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.6%.
Management is focused on a new financial strategy including boosting free cash flow. Payment terms have been optimised to improve working capital. The company is selling its car fleet and will instead lease cars and it has made cut backs on travel. The group reduced its headcount in Germany by c 50, falling from c 550 to c 500. These cuts were mostly lower-level jobs, with many leaving on their own accord. Hence we estimate there was only a modest charge for redundancy costs in Q3 and Q4 which we have factored into our operating costs forecasts. Total group headcount fell to 1,286 at the year end, down from 1,350 at the mid-year stage and 1,341 at the end of FY17. The total decline over the 12 months includes the US headcount reductions in early-FY18.
SNP is trialling a near-shore approach, utilising three hubs to help optimise project costs.
■
DACH region. Utilising the group’s Polish consultants.
■
North America. Utilising the group’s Argentinean workforce, taking advantage of the extremely weak peso.
■
Asia. Using Malaysian resources to cover all of Asia, including a nascent market in Australia (SNP recently appointed an SNP veteran to target the Australian market).
Management is excited about a number of recent successful pilot projects, which it believes could become substantial projects. This includes the S/4HANAproject for Volkswagen Saxony, which is close to going live and leaves SNP well positioned to expand its transformation work in the VW group. There is also a project in the US, which involved merging two SAP landscapes and could expand into a larger S/4HANA project, and a project for a car maker in Germany.
Forecast changes: Revenues and EBITDA trimmed
We have reduced our FY18 revenue forecast by 5% to bring in line with the update and cut IFRS EBITDA to €2.8m. Following discussions with the company, we understand that the IFRS EBITDA number translates to adjusted EBITDA of €2.0m (ie a 39% reduction on our €3.3m forecast). We have cut our FY19 and FY20 revenue forecasts by 4% to €147.5m (the middle of management’s guidance range) and €160m respectively. We have cut our adjusted EBITDA forecasts by 5% in FY19 to €10.4m and by 7% in FY20 to €15.1m, reflecting EBITDA margins of 7.0% and 9.4% respectively. We believe the margin can advance further as the business scales and sells more high-margin proprietary software. We now forecast the group to have ended FY18 with net debt of €23.3m, which falls to €21.9m at the end of FY19 and €17.3m at the end of FY20.
Exhibit 1: Forecast changes
€m |
Revenue (€m) |
Adjusted EBITDA (€m) |
EPS (c) |
||||||
Old |
New |
% chg. |
Old |
New |
% chg. |
Old |
New |
% chg. |
|
2018e |
137.9 |
131.0 |
(5) |
3.3 |
2.0 |
(39) |
(19.4) |
(36.4) |
N/A |
2019e |
153.4 |
147.5 |
(4) |
10.9 |
10.4 |
(5) |
58.6 |
53.6 |
(9) |
2020e |
166.6 |
160.0 |
(4) |
16.2 |
15.1 |
(7) |
115.0 |
104.5 |
(9) |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Approximately €1.1m of exceptional profits are expected in Q4, mostly relating to the write back of the ADEPCON earnout due to the sliding peso. When combined with the cumulative €0.3m exceptional losses over Q1-Q3, the result is an exceptional profit of €0.8m, which represents the difference between IFRS and non-IFRS EBITDA for FY18 (Exhibit 2).
Exhibit 2: Reconciling non-IFRS EBITDA with IFRS EBITDA
2017 |
2017 |
2017 |
2017 |
2017 |
2018 |
2018 |
2018 |
2018 |
2018 |
|
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
FY |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4e |
FYe |
|
Non-IFRS EBITDA |
(1.6) |
2.9 |
0.6 |
5.0 |
6.9 |
(1.2) |
(0.5) |
2.5 |
1.2 |
2.0 |
Exceptional items |
(0.2) |
(1.7) |
(0.5) |
(1.2) |
(3.6) |
(0.2) |
(1.6) |
1.5 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
IFRS EBITDA |
(1.8) |
1.2 |
0.1 |
3.8 |
3.3 |
(1.4) |
(2.1) |
4.0 |
2.3 |
2.8 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
Incoming orders were €132.3m in FY18, which indicates that the book-to-bill ratio was just above 1x for Q4 and the year as a whole; in Q2 and Q3 the ratio was below 1x.
Exhibit 3: New orders and backlog
2017 |
2017 |
2017 |
2017 |
2017 |
2018 |
2018 |
2018 |
2018 |
2018 |
|
€'000 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
FY |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4e |
FYe |
Incoming orders |
24,400 |
33,200 |
37,400 |
35,700 |
130,700 |
40,900 |
26,300 |
31,500 |
33,600 |
132,300 |
Quarterly revenues |
21,598 |
26,430 |
33,011 |
41,304 |
122,343 |
31,553 |
33,492 |
33,727 |
32,228 |
131,000 |
Book-to-bill ratio (x) |
1.13 |
1.26 |
1.13 |
0.86 |
1.07 |
1.30 |
0.79 |
0.93 |
1.04 |
1.01 |
Backlog |
40,800 |
48,500 |
62,200 |
61,300 |
|
70,200 |
63,300 |
61,400 |
56,000 |
|
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
Management changes: New US boss and new COO is close
SNP has hired software industry veteran Derek Oats as CEO and president of the group’s North American operations. Mr Oats’ appointment follows the departure of the group’s US-based chief revenue officer who had been responsible for the entire group’s sales strategy. Mr Oats will work from SNP’s Dallas, Newark and Philadelphia offices, reporting directly to SNP’s CEO and Chairman Dr Andreas Schneider-Neureither. The plan involves expanding the US sales department to bring the US operations back on track.
SNP is close to announcing the hire of a new COO who will be responsible for the group’s day-to-day operations, covering both sales and consulting. This will be the first time that SNP has had a role in charge of both areas.
Following the appointment of the COO, SNP will have three managing directors: Dr Andreas Schneider-Neureither, CEO, responsible for development, IT and marketing; Dr Uwe Schwellbach, CFO, responsible for finance, human resources, legal and administration; and the new COO responsible for sales and consulting.
Exhibit 4: Financial summary
€'000s |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
2020e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
56,236 |
80,685 |
122,343 |
131,000 |
147,500 |
160,000 |
Cost of sales |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Gross Profit |
56,236 |
80,685 |
122,343 |
131,000 |
147,500 |
160,000 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
5,484 |
8,124 |
6,868 |
2,000 |
10,357 |
15,070 |
Adjusted Operating Profit |
|
|
4,222 |
7,114 |
5,113 |
(1,288) |
6,771 |
11,404 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0 |
(657) |
(2,021) |
(1,600) |
(1,600) |
(1,600) |
||
Exceptionals |
356 |
400 |
(3,600) |
800 |
0 |
0 |
||
Associates |
(3) |
8 |
(24) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
4,575 |
6,865 |
(532) |
(2,088) |
5,171 |
9,804 |
||
Net Interest |
(828) |
(1,137) |
(1,327) |
(1,200) |
(1,300) |
(1,100) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
3,394 |
5,977 |
3,786 |
(2,488) |
5,471 |
10,304 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
3,747 |
5,728 |
(1,859) |
(3,288) |
3,871 |
8,704 |
Tax |
(1,195) |
(1,517) |
(807) |
746 |
(1,641) |
(3,091) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
2,198 |
4,460 |
2,980 |
(1,741) |
3,829 |
7,213 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
2,552 |
4,211 |
(2,666) |
(2,541) |
2,229 |
5,613 |
||
Minority interest |
0 |
(147) |
234 |
(267) |
(289) |
(312) |
||
Adjustments for normalised earnings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net income (norm) |
2,198 |
4,313 |
3,214 |
(2,009) |
3,541 |
6,901 |
||
Net income (FRS 3) |
2,552 |
4,064 |
(2,431) |
(2,809) |
1,941 |
5,301 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
3.7 |
4.3 |
5.2 |
5.5 |
6.6 |
6.6 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
58.8 |
100.4 |
61.9 |
(36.4) |
53.6 |
104.5 |
EPS - normalised & fully diluted (c) |
|
|
58.8 |
100.4 |
61.9 |
(36.4) |
53.6 |
104.5 |
EPS - FRS 3 (c) |
|
|
68.3 |
94.6 |
(46.8) |
(50.9) |
29.4 |
80.3 |
Dividend per share (c) |
34.00 |
39.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
25.00 |
33.00 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
9.8 |
10.1 |
5.6 |
1.5 |
7.0 |
9.4 |
||
Adjusted Operating Margin (%) |
7.5 |
8.8 |
4.2 |
(1.0) |
4.6 |
7.1 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
15,243 |
30,109 |
75,171 |
73,526 |
71,994 |
70,697 |
Intangible Assets |
11,675 |
24,179 |
67,012 |
65,380 |
63,748 |
62,115 |
||
Tangible Assets |
1,999 |
3,161 |
5,187 |
5,174 |
5,275 |
5,609 |
||
Other |
1,570 |
2,769 |
2,972 |
2,972 |
2,972 |
2,972 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
29,996 |
58,424 |
78,614 |
75,236 |
76,977 |
80,678 |
Stocks |
0 |
371 |
371 |
398 |
448 |
486 |
||
Debtors |
16,084 |
25,652 |
43,781 |
41,879 |
47,153 |
51,149 |
||
Cash |
13,769 |
31,914 |
33,877 |
32,375 |
28,791 |
28,457 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(13,703) |
(32,631) |
(40,531) |
(38,035) |
(42,689) |
(45,973) |
Creditors |
(11,101) |
(14,523) |
(29,295) |
(26,799) |
(31,452) |
(34,737) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(2,602) |
(18,108) |
(11,236) |
(11,236) |
(11,236) |
(11,236) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(15,513) |
(7,327) |
(53,157) |
(45,583) |
(40,583) |
(35,583) |
Long term borrowings |
(12,344) |
(5,531) |
(49,487) |
(44,487) |
(39,487) |
(34,487) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(3,169) |
(1,796) |
(3,670) |
(1,096) |
(1,096) |
(1,096) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
16,024 |
48,575 |
60,097 |
65,144 |
65,700 |
69,818 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
1,879 |
1,005 |
(5,316) |
1,377 |
9,652 |
14,302 |
Net Interest |
(167) |
53 |
(798) |
(1,200) |
(1,300) |
(1,100) |
||
Tax |
(554) |
(412) |
(1,366) |
697 |
(1,532) |
(2,885) |
||
Capex |
(1,779) |
(3,451) |
(5,234) |
(3,275) |
(3,688) |
(4,000) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals* |
(3,228) |
(5,923) |
(28,783) |
(11,701) |
(1,716) |
0 |
||
Shares issued |
0 |
30,129 |
18,293 |
17,600 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(483) |
(1,264) |
(1,932) |
0 |
0 |
(1,651) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(4,332) |
20,137 |
(25,136) |
3,498 |
1,416 |
4,666 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(3,431) |
1,176 |
(8,275) |
26,847 |
23,349 |
21,932 |
Other |
(275) |
(10,686) |
(9,985) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
1,176 |
(8,275) |
26,847 |
23,349 |
21,932 |
17,266 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Includes additional payments for Adepcon in FY18 and FY19, and final payments for RSP, Astrums/Hartung, Harlex and Innoplexia in FY18.
|
|
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