Riverstone Credit Opportunities Income — Continues to benefit from healthy yields

Riverstone Credit Opportunities Income (LSE: RCOI)

Last close As at 20/05/2024

0.88

0.01 (1.15%)

Market capitalisation

79m

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Research: Investment Companies

Riverstone Credit Opportunities Income — Continues to benefit from healthy yields

Riverstone Credit Opportunities Income (RCOI) reported an H123 NAV total return (TR) of 4.1%, with all loan investments in its portfolio performing to plan (also with respect to key sustainability performance indicators embedded in the loan terms). In June 2023, RCOI participated in the refinancing of the Streamline Innovations loan, which allowed it to realise a gross internal rate of return (IRR) of 23.6% and multiple on invested capital (MOIC) of 1.29x on the original US$13.8m loan (after a holding period of 13 months). RCOI reinvested US$9.9m into a new loan to Streamline Innovations, with an estimated all-in yield to maturity of 13%. It declared a quarterly dividend of 2.0 US cents per share (in line with the previous quarter). At the current c 17% discount to NAV (including income), the last 12-month (LTM) payment now implies a c 10% dividend yield.

Milosz Papst

Written by

Milosz Papst

Director, Financials

Investment Companies

Riverstone Credit Opportunities Income

Continues to benefit from healthy yields

Investment companies

29 August 2023

Price

US$0.88

Market cap

US$80m

NAV*

US$98m

US$1.25/£

NAV per share*

US$1.07

*As at 30 June 2023.

Discount to NAV (cum fair)

17.2%

Dividend yield

10.2%

Ordinary shares in issue

90.8m

Code/ISIN

RCOI/GB00BJHPS390

Primary exchange

LSE Specialist Fund Segment

AIC sector

Sector Specialist: Debt

Gross gearing as % portfolio value*

5.4%

*Estimated end-June 2023.

Fund objective

Riverstone Credit Opportunities Income’s objective is to generate stable current income and growth in NAV by investing in a diversified portfolio of senior secured loans to mid-market entities predominantly engaged in building infrastructure and providing infrastructure services to generate, transport, store and distribute both renewable and conventional sources of energy, as well as those focused on the transformation of the global energy sector from fossil-based to zero carbon. There is a focus on US companies, but RCOI invests across end-markets to provide synergies and hedges to enhance portfolio stability.

Bull points

Lending niche with barriers to entry allows for favourable pricing.

RCOI’s portfolio is floating rate and therefore captured the recent rise in base rates.

Significant re-rating potential given wide discount.

Bear points

The energy market is highly cyclical and economic uncertainty remains elevated.

RCOI loans to projects that are pre-revenue can conceivably have higher risk.

Relatively short fund trading history, although the manager has other similar (but private) energy funds with a 2015 inception.

Analyst

Milosz Papst

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Riverstone Credit Opportunities Income is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Riverstone Credit Opportunities Income (RCOI) reported an H123 NAV total return (TR) of 4.1%, with all loan investments in its portfolio performing to plan (also with respect to key sustainability performance indicators embedded in the loan terms). In June 2023, RCOI participated in the refinancing of the Streamline Innovations loan, which allowed it to realise a gross internal rate of return (IRR) of 23.6% and multiple on invested capital (MOIC) of 1.29x on the original US$13.8m loan (after a holding period of 13 months). RCOI reinvested US$9.9m into a new loan to Streamline Innovations, with an estimated all-in yield to maturity of 13%. It declared a quarterly dividend of 2.0 US cents per share (in line with the previous quarter). At the current c 17% discount to NAV (including income), the last 12-month (LTM) payment now implies a c 10% dividend yield.

RCOI continues to distribute dividends in line with target

Source: RCOI. Note: *Including 2 US cents declared in respect of Q223.

Playing on ‘net zero’ transition in the energy sector

Close to 100% of RCOI’s investment portfolio consists of senior secured, floating rate loans (with interest rate floors), which are either structured as sustainability-linked loans (which tie loan economics to meeting specific sustainability performance targets) or green loans (used to fund new green energy infrastructure or the conversion of older assets to more sustainable use). The mid-market segment remains underserved by the banking sector, providing good opportunities for direct lenders with specialist knowledge such as RCOI to fill in the gap. RCOI is therefore well placed to benefit from the transition to ‘net zero’ within the mid-market energy sector, with Riverstone Credit Partners (RCP), its investment manager, now pursuing a c US$500m investment pipeline.

Target dividend looks well covered

RCOI’s targeted dividend yield of 8–10% on its IPO price of US$1.00 looks well covered (assuming no portfolio defaults). This is underpinned by the normalisation in the interest rate environment (current Secured Overnight Financing Rate, SOFR, of c 5.30%), confidence that RCOI will stay close to fully invested, as well as key portfolio metrics. These metrics include (on a weighted average basis as at end-June 2023): 1) a floating rate spread of 710bp, 2) a call premium at entry of 102.6%, 3) a structuring fee and/or original issue discount of 97.5% par and 4) a moderate loan to value ratio of 40%.

Loan book performing in line with expectations

RCOI posted an NAV TR of 4.1% in H123, with income and gains primarily coming from recurring interest income on its loan portfolio. This brought its NAV TR since listing in May 2019 to 37.8%. RCOI’s one-year NAV TR in sterling terms of 9.3% is ahead of the average for the three peers we consider most relevant (see Exhibit 1), ranking second after BioPharma Credit, while its three-year NAV TR is broadly in line with the peer group average.

Exhibit 1: Selected investment peer group at 29 August 2023* in sterling terms

% unless stated

Market cap £m

NAV TR
1 year

NAV TR
3 year

Premium/
(discount)

Ongoing charge**

Performance
fee

Net gearing

Dividend
yield

Riverstone Credit Opportunities

63.5

9.3

30.3

(17.2)

1.5

Yes

100***

10.0

BioPharma Credit

868.0

9.7

29.2

(17.7)

1.1

Yes

100

8.4

GCP Asset Backed Income

246.9

2.0

12.9

(37.9)

1.2

No

106

10.9

VPC Specialty Lending Investments

198.4

5.1

42.8

(23.7)

2.1

Yes

133

11.2

Peer average

437.8

5.6

28.3

(26.4)

1.5

-

113

10.2

Rank

4

2

2

1

1

-

3

3

Source: Morningstar, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Performance to end-June 2023. **Excluding performance fee. RCOI’s LTM ongoing charge ratio including profit share expenses stands at 3.1%. RCOI’s investment manager does not charge a base management fee. ***Calculated at the holding level based on the fair value of investments in SPVs, which had US$5m in drawn credit and US$2.8m in cash balances at end-June 2023. TR, total return in sterling terms. Net gearing is total assets less cash and equivalents as a percentage of net assets (100 = ungeared).

Weighted average all-in coupon at 11.7% at end-H123

RCOI’s total income in H123 stood at US$4.6m, or 4.7% of end-2022 NAV, which implies 9.4% on an annualised basis. This is somewhat below the weighted average all-in coupon across RCOI’s portfolio of 11.7% at end-June 2023 (with a weighted average spread of c 710bp). This is partly because the SOFR rate increased gradually during H123 from 4.30% to 5.09% and the coupon rate on most of RCOI’s loans is reset (based on the prevailing benchmark rate) on a quarterly basis.

In H123, RCOI earned a 1.75% upfront fee on its US$9.9m allocation to the new Streamline Innovations loan, as well as the 2% call premium on the original US$13.8m loan (see below for details of the transaction), which we estimate added c 0.5pp to its H123 NAV TR (before profit share expenses). We understand that RCOI recognised a downward revaluation in its energy transition bucket (whose fair value fell from c US$16.6m at end-2022 to US$14.8m at end-June 2023), which was due to a lower valuation of the Imperium3NY warrants (see our previous note for a borrower profile description).

RCOI’s total expenses amounted to US$1.0m in H123, or c 1.0% of its average NAV in the period. This includes US$0.4m of profit share expenses, which are derived from a three-tiered incentive system: payment is 0% up to an annual distributable income of 4%, 20% is paid out of income between 4% and 8%, and 30% out of distributable income greater than 8%. We note that RCOI does not pay a base management fee to its investment manager.

RCOI’s cash flow from operations of US$4.8m in H123 was in line with its P&L total income and fully covered the US$4.5m interest and dividend distributions during the period. RCOI was close to fully invested at end-June 2023, with 98% of liquidity committed and 91% invested. RCOI’s manager therefore remains confident in the company’s ability to maintain its dividend yield target of 8–10% on its IPO price of US$1.00.

Exhibit 2: RCOI’s portfolio by project at end-June 2023

Exhibit 3: RCOI’s portfolio by sector at end-June 2023

Source: Riverstone Credit Opportunities Income data

Source: Riverstone Credit Opportunities Income data

Exhibit 2: RCOI’s portfolio by project at end-June 2023

Source: Riverstone Credit Opportunities Income data

Exhibit 3: RCOI’s portfolio by sector at end-June 2023

Source: Riverstone Credit Opportunities Income data

At the current c 17% discount to cum income NAV (see Exhibit 4), the LTM dividend payments imply a solid 10% yield.

Exhibit 4: RCOI’s discount to NAV including income (percentage)

Source: Morningstar

Refinancing of Streamline Innovations completed in June 2023

In terms of transactions during the period, RCOI completed the refinancing of the loan to Streamline Innovations, a sponsor-backed provider of environmentally advanced treatment solutions and equipment for hydrogen sulphide. The company has more than 40 treating plants in service or fabrication with a total capacity to eliminate the flaring of over 100m pounds of toxic sulphur oxide per year and eliminate the production of more than 50m gallons of hazardous waste per year.

The original loan was fully realised in June 2023 at a US$2.0m realised profit, implying a 23.6% gross IRR and a 1.29x gross MOIC. As part of the refinancing, the loan was upsized by US$10m to US$55m (it was previously upsized from US$20m in November 2021 to US$45m in May 2022), but RCOI’s allocation was reduced from US$13.8m to US$9.9m to manage its portfolio concentration. Moreover, the call protection embedded in the loan was modified and the pricing was adjusted (see Exhibit 5), implying a yield to maturity of c 13%.

RCOI’s manager highlighted that the performance of the Streamline Innovations project has met or exceeded its expectations, with expected 2023 EBITDA of US$21.7m (implying a c 79% y-o-y increase and a 1.0x gross leverage) and US$61.2m of liquidity as of July, translating into a net cash position (with US$26.2m in cash and US$35m in unfunded term loans). The manager also underlined that the project continues to win new contracts in the oil & gas sector from blue-chip operators such as Chevron, Continental and Franklin Mountain. Streamline Innovations also continues to build out its renewable natural gas capabilities, although market penetration has been below expectations, according to RCP.

Exhibit 5: Terms of the Streamline Innovations loan (current versus previous)

Terms

Previous

Current

Credit facility (US$m)

45

55

Lenders

RCP II, RCOI and affiliates

RCOI's allocation (US$m)

13.8

9.9

Use of proceeds

To construct H2S treating equipment, to fund interest expense and pay transaction fees and expenses

To construct H2S treating equipment, fund interest expense and pay transaction fees

Security

First lien

First lien

Tenor

Three years

31 December 2026 (c 3.5 years)

Pricing

Libor +800bp cash
1.00% Libor floor
2.5% all-in upfront fee

Adjusted term SOFR +700bp
2.0% SOFR floor
1.75% all-in upfront fee

Redemption price (%)

Year 1: 100.0
Year 2: 102.0
Year 3: 104.0

Year 1: non-call
Year 2: 102.0
Thereafter: Par

Financial covenants

Maximum leverage ratio
Minimum liquidity

Net leverage ratio
Minimum liquidity

Negative covenants

Limitation on debt, liens and restricted payments

Source: Riverstone Credit Opportunities Income data

RCP pursuing a c US$500m investment pipeline

RCP highlighted that it maintains a rich investment pipeline and is currently pursuing seven primary deals with a total of c US$500m commitments, which could be partly allocated to RCOI (based on its available liquidity). The investment manager is submitting term sheets with conditions broadly in line with those of RCOI’s current portfolio, with spreads of 650–900bp, upfront fees of c 2–3% and inverse call protections.

Exhibit 6: RCOI’s current investment pipeline

Date

Project name

Type of company

Total deal size (US$m)

RCP size (US$m)

Equity ownership

Description

GL/SLL*

Jan-23

Sandy

Infrastructure

75

75

Private

Silica extraction

SLL

Jan-23

Nitro

Infrastructure

150

80

Sponsor

Greenhouse gases to biomaterial

SLL

Jan-23

Stack

Infrastructure

50

50

Sponsor

Modular nuclear power

GL

Mar-23

Core

Infrastructure

65

65

Private

Geothermal

GL

Jun-23

Clay

Infrastructure

45

45

Private

Materials

GL

Jul-23

Trek

Infrastructure

60

60

Sponsor

CO2 capture

GL

Source: Riverstone Credit Opportunities Income data. Note: *GL, green loans; SLL, sustainability-linked loans.

RCOI highlighted that its liquidity for new investments (as at 25 July) stood at US$8.8m. This includes cash held at the holding and SPVs level, holdings in a money market fund with JP Morgan, and the US$10m of the undrawn revolving credit facility (all of which was available for drawdown at end-June 2023 based on the loan-to-value covenant of 22%), adjusted for unfunded investment commitments, distribution payable, and a reserve for expenses, as well as profit share.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Riverstone Credit Opportunities Income and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Riverstone Credit Opportunities Income. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

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This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Riverstone Credit Opportunities Income and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Riverstone Credit Opportunities Income. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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