Gresham House Energy Storage Fund — Revenue recovery to provide base for growth

Gresham House Energy Storage Fund (LSE: GRID)

Last close As at 10/10/2024

GBP0.52

−0.30 (−0.57%)

Market capitalisation

GBP296m

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Research: Investment Companies

Gresham House Energy Storage Fund — Revenue recovery to provide base for growth

Gresham House Energy Storage Fund (GRID) is the largest UK fund investing in utility-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS). The BESS sector has faced challenges over the past year due to unexpected revenue declines and the slower-than-expected utilisation of BESS by the UK’s Electricity System Operator (see our February note). This has adversely impacted GRID’s NAV and share price, which is currently trading at a 50% discount to its latest published NAV. However, a H124 trading update released today foresees a ‘strong earnings recovery in 2025’ due to rising contractual revenues and the completion of GRID’s 2024 construction pipeline. GRID will announce a three-year plan in November aimed at further increasing revenues and reducing earnings volatility. This plan will focus on further augmentations to the capacity of GRID’s existing projects, new pipeline opportunities, efficient capital management and alternative revenue sources. These expansion plans, combined with improved revenue prospects, give GRID’s manager, Ben Guest renewed and growing confidence over the medium-term prospects for the business and its ability to deliver value for shareholders.

Joanne Collins

Written by

Joanne Collins

Analyst, Investment Trusts

Investment Companies

Gresham House Energy Storage Fund

Revenue recovery to provide a base for growth

Trading update

Investment trusts
Renewable energy infrastructure

9 September 2024

Price

53.60p

Market cap

£307.3m

AUM

£625.9m

NAV*

109.16p

Discount to NAV*

50.9%

*At 30 September 2023.

Shares in issue

573.4m

Yield, based on current share price and 2023 dividend**

10.3%

** Dividend payments were suspended in early 2024.

Code/ISIN

GRID/GB00BFX3K770

Primary exchange

LSE

AIC sector

Renewable energy infrastructure

Fund objective

Gresham House Energy Storage Fund seeks to provide investors with an attractive and sustainable dividend over the long term, by investing in a diversified portfolio of utility-scale battery energy storage systems located in the UK and Ireland. In addition, the company seeks to provide investors with capital growth through the reinvestment of net cash generated in excess of the target dividend.

Analyst

Joanne Collins

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Gresham House Energy Storage Fund is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Gresham House Energy Storage Fund (GRID) is the largest UK fund investing in utility-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS). The BESS sector has faced challenges over the past year due to unexpected revenue declines and the slower-than-expected utilisation of BESS by the UK’s Electricity System Operator (see our February note). This has adversely impacted GRID’s NAV and share price, which is currently trading at a 50% discount to its latest published NAV. However, a H124 trading update released today foresees a ‘strong earnings recovery in 2025’ due to rising contractual revenues and the completion of GRID’s 2024 construction pipeline. GRID will announce a three-year plan in November aimed at further increasing revenues and reducing earnings volatility. This plan will focus on further augmentations to the capacity of GRID’s existing projects, new pipeline opportunities, efficient capital management and alternative revenue sources. These expansion plans, combined with improved revenue prospects, give GRID’s manager, Ben Guest renewed and growing confidence over the medium-term prospects for the business and its ability to deliver value for shareholders.

The H124 trading update showed that GRID’s NAV per share declined to 109.16p at end June 2024, down 19.91p since December 2023. The main reason for this decline was a deterioration in third-party revenue forecasts, following the introduction of a new, more conservative forecaster. This reduced the NAV by 19.47p. GRID’s board and manager stressed that they are acutely conscious that the volatility in revenue forecasts has made NAV per share a difficult metric for investors to rely on. The company will, therefore, begin publishing additional alternative mainstream valuation metrics, including P/E and EV/EBITDA, in the interim results due on 30 September 2024 to help investors and analysts better evaluate the business.

During H124, GRID’s net revenues declined 12.7% to £17.9m, versus H123, driven by a weak Q124. However, Q224 revenues recovered and stabilised and net revenue figures for July and August are averaging their highest levels this year, c 25% above their H124 average. GRID has also signed a landmark tolling agreement with Octopus Energy, which will fix revenues for the next two years on more than 50% of GRID’s target portfolio (ie capacity of 1,072MW by end-2024).

Work continues on the construction of new projects and site augmentations. The operational capacity of 790MW at 30 June 2024 (up 14.5% from end December 2023) is expected to reach 1,072MW (ie above 1GW), which is a key milestone for GRID, by year end. The manager is also exploring potential new projects and sees further augmentation opportunities, which he believes will deliver strong returns once onstream.

Once GRID’s 2024 pipeline is completed and tolling arrangements with Octopus Energy are fully in place, the company estimates that about two-thirds of operational revenues will be contracted during 2025 and the first three quarters of 2026. GRID notes that this should provide a supportive backdrop for the recommencement of dividend distributions in FY25, as previously foreshadowed.

This flash note will be followed by a more detailed update in October, following the release of GRID’s interim results on 30 September 2024.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Gresham House Energy Storage Fund and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Gresham House Energy Storage Fund. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Gresham House Energy Storage Fund and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Gresham House Energy Storage Fund. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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