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Research: Industrials
Thrace Group’s Q123 results highlight continued growth in underlying adjusted EBITDA (excluding personal protective equipment (PPE) related products), as it increased by 4% and 22% compared to Q122 and Q120 (pre-PPE boost) respectively. Despite a modest drop in Q123 volumes of 4%, management anticipates sustained continuing profitability in Q223. Management expects H123 EBITDA from the traditional portfolio to be in line with previous years’ levels at around €25m, which is consistent with our forecasts, which remain unchanged. As mentioned in our recent note, we value the company at €8.23 per share, implying plenty of upside potential.
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Thrace Group |
Resilient business model in a challenging market |
Q123 results |
General industrials |
21 June 2023 |
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Thrace Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Thrace Group’s Q123 results highlight continued growth in underlying adjusted EBITDA (excluding personal protective equipment (PPE) related products), as it increased by 4% and 22% compared to Q122 and Q120 (pre-PPE boost) respectively. Despite a modest drop in Q123 volumes of 4%, management anticipates sustained continuing profitability in Q223. Management expects H123 EBITDA from the traditional portfolio to be in line with previous years’ levels at around €25m, which is consistent with our forecasts, which remain unchanged. As mentioned in our recent note, we value the company at €8.23 per share, implying plenty of upside potential.
Year |
Revenue |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS** |
P/E |
Yield |
12/21 |
428.4 |
85.9 |
1.55 |
0.27 |
3.3 |
5.3 |
12/22*** |
394.4 |
27.5 |
0.50 |
0.26 |
10.3 |
5.1 |
12/23e |
389.3 |
22.1 |
0.38 |
0.19 |
13.5 |
3.7 |
12/24e |
415.3 |
25.4 |
0.44 |
0.20 |
11.7 |
3.9 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and sharebased payments. **Including special dividends in FY20, FY21 and FY22. *** FY22 PBT is €22.2m from traditional portfolio (excluding PPE) before non-recurring OAED financial income of €4.56m (already excluded).
Q123 EBITDA growth from traditional portfolio
Thrace reported robust Q123 results. Despite group turnover declining by 12.5% yoy, EBITDA from traditional products (excluding COVID-19 PPE products) increased by 4% to €11.7m. It should be noted that in Q122, raw material prices rose to historically high levels with sales prices following (particularly Technical Fabrics) with the relative downward correction seen in Q123. Compared to Q120, a period largely unaffected by COVID-19, adjusted EBITDA rose by 22%, showing tangible progress. Liquidity levels also improved with net debt declining to €14.8m, compared to the FY22 value of €21.5m, with a healthy leverage ratio of 0.3x (using our 2023e EBITDA).
Continuing focus on sustainability
Sustainable development is deeply ingrained in Thrace’s corporate strategy, as evidenced by the ongoing implementation of its comprehensive sustainability plan. This plan aligns with the United Nations’ goals and supports the transition to a circular economy. Thrace’s commitment to sustainability is evident as it recently attained the prestigious ‘Platinum’ rank on the Forbes Top 100 ESG Transparency Index in Greece, as well as achieving a noteworthy ‘B’ Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) score.
Valuation: Remains unchanged at €8.23 per share
FY22 results were broadly in line with our forecasts and Q123 was aligned with our previous expectations. Consequently, our 2023 and 2024 forecasts remain unchanged, with continuing EBITDA of €46.2m and €49.4m respectively. Our valuation remains €8.23 per share, as discussed in our most recent note.
Q123 results show tangible progress
In Q123, Thrace demonstrated the strength in its core traditional products despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, although this was somewhat masked by the lack of PPE sales. Revenue of €93.0m was 12.5% lower than Q122. PBT fell from €10.7m to €5.4m, largely reflecting the lack of higher-margin PPE product sales (Q122 PBT contribution: €4.3m), combined with a reduction in demand and sales prices. In addition, there was a notable decline in demand in the construction and agricultural sectors, while the Packaging segment remained relatively steady. If we remove earnings from PPE-related products in Q122 to give an EBITDA for the traditional portfolio of €11.2m, Q123 delivered a modest increase of 4% to €11.7m. The performance highlights the stability of Thrace despite the challenging market conditions, which has enabled it to transform into an around €50m recurring EBITDA company (versus its historical track record of c €30m). We believe that this is sustainable; hence our 2023 and 2024 EBITDA forecasts are €46.2m and €49.4m.
Exhibit 1: Q123 vs Q122 results
€m (unless otherwise stated) |
Q122 |
Q123 |
% change |
Turnover |
106.3 |
93.0 |
-12.5% |
Gross profit |
24.7 |
20.7 |
-16.3% |
Gross profit margin |
23.2% |
22.2% |
- |
EBITDA (Traditional portfolio) – continuing reported |
11.2 |
11.7 |
3.8% |
EBITDA – continuing reported |
15.5 |
11.7 |
-25.0% |
EBITDA margin |
14.6% |
12.5% |
- |
Profit before tax (PBT) |
10.7 |
5.4 |
-49.8% |
PBT margin |
10.1% |
5.8% |
- |
EPS – continuing (€/share) |
0.2 |
0.09 |
-56.0% |
Net (debt)/cash |
(12.4) |
(14.8) |
18.9% |
Source: Thrace Group company reports
Segmental analysis: Improved margins in the Packaging division
Thrace’s Packaging division experienced year-on-year margin expansion, with a gross margin of 23.3% (Q122: 20.4%) and an EBITDA margin of 16.5% (Q122: 15.8%). The improvement is partially attributable to robust demand, as well as increases in packaging prices, and better product mix.
Exhibit 2: Q122 and Q123 results by division (continuing operations)
€m |
Technical Fabrics |
Packaging |
Other |
Inter-segment. eliminations |
Group |
||||||||
Q122 |
Q123 |
% change |
Q122 |
Q123 |
% change |
Q122 |
Q123 |
Q122 |
Q123 |
Q122 |
Q123 |
% change |
|
Turnover |
75.6 |
64.7 |
-14.4% |
34.4 |
31.6 |
-8.1% |
1.4 |
1.4 |
(5.2) |
(4.8) |
106.3 |
93.0 |
-12.5% |
Gross profit |
17.5 |
13.1 |
-25.2% |
7.0 |
7.4 |
5.0% |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
24.7 |
20.7 |
-16.3% |
Gross profit margin |
23.2% |
20.3% |
- |
20.4% |
23.3% |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
23.2% |
22.2% |
- |
Underlying EBITDA (excl. PPE)* |
6.9 |
6.6 |
-4.3% |
4.3 |
5.2 |
20.9% |
0.0 |
(0.2) |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
11.2 |
11.7 |
4.5% |
EBITDA* |
10.1 |
6.6 |
-34.1% |
5.4 |
5.2 |
-3.9% |
0.0 |
(0.2) |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
15.5 |
11.7 |
-25.0% |
EBITDA* margin |
13.3% |
10.3% |
- |
15.8% |
16.5% |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
14.6% |
12.5% |
- |
Source: Thrace Group. Note: *Post-exceptional items.
As working capital continues to normalise back to historical low levels following the pandemic, cash flows are improving and net debt reduced from €21.5m at FY22 to €14.8m at Q123. Due to the seasonality of the business, Q2 and Q3 cash consumption is typically higher. We have slightly amended our net debt forecasts, from €17.2m to €17.3m in 2023 and from €10.9m to €14.2m in 2024. Combined with our EBITDA estimate of €46.2m, this implies a healthy FY23e leverage ratio of 0.37x.
Capital allocation: Increased FY23 capex estimates
In the eight-year period from 2015 to 2022, Thrace invested €232m in capital expenditure, allocating around 30% to maintenance and infrastructure projects and around 70% to capacity and efficiency increases (new business). We had previously forecast 2023 capex of €22.0m and this was broadly in line with the forecasted respective depreciation of €23.1m, which reflects Thrace’s medium-term strategy to invest in capex largely in line with depreciation. Q123 results suggest an expected FY23 nominal capex of around €30m, albeit this includes Greenhouse investments which are not fully consolidated. We have adjusted our capex forecasts accordingly, with 2023e and 2024e cash capex of €27m and €25m respectively (Exhibit 3). As part of the 2023 capex plan, Thrace has introduced a new line of recyclable paper cups to the catering, food and beverages market.
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Exhibit 3: Capex and depreciation |
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Source: Thrace Group, Edison Investment Research |
Thrace has announced that it has paid a FY22 gross total of €11.3m in dividends to its shareholders, corresponding to €0.26 per share; €0.069 per share of this was allocated as an interim dividend. With our FY22 adjusted EPS figure of €0.50 per share, this represents dividend cover of 1.9x, in line with a mature company. We expect Thrace’s dividend to reflect adjusted earnings progression, with a dividend payout ratio of between 50% and 55%; thus, we maintain our FY23 dividend estimate of €0.19 per share (2x covered by our FY23 adjusted EPS estimate of €0.38/share).
Outlook for 2023
Regarding the prospects for FY23, due to the seasonality of the business, the second and third quarters tend to outperform the others (with Q4 typically being the weakest). Management has guided for an H123 performance broadly in line with H122, excluding the profits from COVID-19 products (c €4.7m at the EBITDA level). Thus, we expect the first half of the year to report EBITDA of around €25m and, with the anticipated weaker Q4, our FY23 EBITDA forecast remains unchanged at €46.2m.
As mentioned in our previous note, our FY23 forecasts are indicative of the current macroeconomic uncertainty and continued challenges in terms of subdued demand and higher input costs. We expect core product revenues to remain relatively static compared to FY22 with a relatively immaterial contribution from PPE, which is being subsumed into the two operating segments of the business. At the PBT level, we expect the contribution from traditional core products to remain stable at €22.1m (FY22: €22.2m excluding PPE and OAED). However, FY23e still shows significant upside to pre-pandemic 2019, with anticipated normalised PBT and EPS increases of 84% and 124% to €22.1m and €0.38 per share, respectively.
We see the benefits of past and current investments providing the base for accelerating growth and positive cash flows as Thrace moves into FY24. The company’s extensive capex programme of c €237m from 2015 to 2022, focused on increasing capacity and improving operational efficiencies, has paved the way for this progress. On the back of that we predict 6.7% y-o-y revenue growth in 2024e, with continuing PBT and normalised EPS increasing 15% and 16%, respectively. This is further bolstered by increased demand emerging from higher-margin secondary processing products, which combine two or more of Thrace’s proprietary technologies.
Progressing with sustainable growth
A core part of the group’s corporate approach remains sustainable development, reflected in the implementation of its robust renewable plan in accordance with United Nations’ goals and in line with the move towards a circular economy. Thrace’s endeavours were highlighted by its recent attainment of the highest rank (Platinum) on the Forbes Top 100 ESG Transparency Index in Greece, alongside only 18 other companies. This complements the company’s ‘B’ rating for sustainability from the CDP, which is above the global average and indicates that an organisation has addressed and is proactively managing the environmental impacts of its business.
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Exhibit 4: FY22 sustainability progress |
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Source: Thrace Group |
As part of its sustainable initiatives, Thrace continues to implement policies consistent with its ‘In the Loop’ platform, a pioneering concept designed to help its customers, suppliers and partners collect, recycle and reuse plastic material for the manufacturing of new products. Thrace has also submitted a pledge to the EU to substitute more than 8,500 tonnes pa of virgin raw material with recycled material by 2025. To put this into context, on an annual basis, Thrace processes around 110,000 metric tonnes of polypropylene and polyethylene.
Research: Industrials
So far in 2023 paragon has sold its semvox subsidiary, fully redeemed its Swiss franc (CHF) bond and is preparing for the remainder of the accelerated €25m Eurobond partial redemption, while delivering positive Q123 results. Once the Eurobond payment is complete, investors’ focus should return to the equity investment case. Risk reduction of the business model and a clear growth strategy still appear underrated by the market.