Currency in EUR
Last close As at 08/06/2023
EUR8.02
▲ 0.06 (0.75%)
Market capitalisation
EUR2,451m
Research: Oil & Gas
Hellenic Petroleum reported Q222 adjusted EBITDA of €535m, almost seven times higher than a year earlier (€79m) and c 50% ahead of consensus (c €350m; six analysts). This was driven by a strong performance across all divisions. Refining saw record-high EBITDA with strong refining margins and export performance, due to market disruption and energy security concerns, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, along with strong demand from improved economic activity. This was despite a scheduled maintenance and higher energy costs. Marketing saw improved performance in most markets, with Greece’s exposure to tourism and GDP growth reflected in the results. RES (Renewable Energy Sources) delivered results of €6m due a full quarter performance from Kozani solar plant (204MW), which started up in April. Annualised run rate for RES is c €50m assisted by a 55MW wind farm acquired on 28 July 2022. Given the strong performance, our forecasts and valuation are under review.
Hellenic Petroleum |
Record Q2 results |
Q2 results |
Oil and gas |
26 August 2022 |
Share price performance Business description
Analyst
Hellenic Petroleum is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited. |
Hellenic Petroleum reported Q222 adjusted EBITDA of €535m, almost seven times higher than a year earlier (€79m) and c 50% ahead of consensus (c €350m; six analysts). This was driven by a strong performance across all divisions. Refining saw record-high EBITDA with strong refining margins and export performance, due to market disruption and energy security concerns, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, along with strong demand from improved economic activity. This was despite a scheduled maintenance and higher energy costs. Marketing saw improved performance in most markets, with Greece’s exposure to tourism and GDP growth reflected in the results. RES (Renewable Energy Sources) delivered results of €6m due a full quarter performance from Kozani solar plant (204MW), which started up in April. Annualised run rate for RES is c €50m assisted by a 55MW wind farm acquired on 28 July 2022. Given the strong performance, our forecasts and valuation are under review.
Year end |
Revenue |
Adjusted EBITDA* (€m) |
Net debt** |
P/E |
Dividend yield |
12/20 |
5,782 |
333 |
1,673 |
N/A |
1.4 |
12/21 |
9,222 |
401 |
1,938 |
15.7 |
5.4 |
Note: *Adjusted numbers account for inventory movements and other one-off items. **Net debt excludes lease liabilities.
Reported EBITDA was €736m due to inventory gains of €246m on higher oil prices partially offset by one-offs (€17m) and accrual of a CO2 emissions deficit (€27m). Net income was €524m, c 10 times higher than Q121 (€52m). Net debt stood at c €2bn at the end of Q222 (down from c €2.3bn at the end of Q122), with strong profitability outweighing price-led working capital gains. This includes cash of c €1.4bn, which, combined with credit facilities and ongoing cash flow generation, is enough to finance its investment programme. Hellenic is on track with its Vision 2025 renewable strategy (1GW by the end of 2026 and over 2GW by 2030), with 340MW (wind and solar) currently in operation.
The sale of DEPA Infrastructure to Italgas for €733m, corresponding to €256m for Hellenic Petroleum’s 35% stake, is expected to be completed in Q322, following the relevant regulatory approvals, which are taking longer than expected. As highlighted in our April update, management has indicated it plans to return 50% of the proceeds to shareholders in FY22, equating to c €130m or €0.42 per share. Combined with our forecast dividend for FY22 of €0.31 per share, this would give a total estimated dividend for FY22 of €0.73 per share, equating to a yield of c 10%.
|
|
Research: Healthcare
Scandion Oncology is approaching a major inflection point as results from the Phase II CORIST trial of the company’s lead asset, SCO-101, in metastatic colorectal cancer, are expected in Q322. In addition, top-line data from the extended Phase Ib PANTAX study in pancreatic cancer are expected in H123 (previously Q322). In H122, R&D related expenses rose to DKK33.0m, from DKK20.4m in H121, as patient enrolment continued for CORIST and PANTAX. In July 2022, Scandion completed a rights issue, which we estimate will result in a net cash injection of c SEK58m (c DKK41m). At end H122, management reported a cash position of DKK72.7m, however, including net proceeds from the equity raise, we estimate this figure to have risen to c DKK113.7m. At the current burn rate (H122: DKK32.4m), and considering estimated clinical activities, we anticipate the company is funded into FY24, past key readouts in FY22 and FY23. We value Scandion Oncology at SEK609.5m or SEK15.0 per share (previously SEK586.5m or SEK14.4 per share).
Get access to the very latest content matched to your personal investment style.