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Low dependency on Russian crude

Hellenic Petroleum 4 April 2022 Update
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Hellenic Petroleum

Low dependency on Russian crude

Q421 results

Oil & gas

4 April 2022

Price

€7.38

Market cap

€2,270m

US$1.11/€

Net debt (€m) at 31 December 2021 (excluding lease liabilities)

1,938

Shares in issue

305.6m

Free float

19%

Code

ELPE

Primary exchange

ASE

Secondary exchange

LSE

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

5.3

16.0

22.5

Rel (local)

2.5

17.1

20.3

52-week high/low

€7.38

€5.55

Business description

Hellenic Petroleum operates three refineries in Greece with a total capacity of 344kbopd. It has sizeable marketing (domestic and international) and petrochemicals divisions.

Next events

Q122 results

12 May 2022

Rebranding, AGM

9 June 2022

Analyst

James Magness

+44 (0)20 3077 5756

Hellenic Petroleum is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Hellenic Petroleum, a leading oil refiner in Greece, is making progress in its Vision 2025 strategy by building a 0.3GW renewable energy portfolio as of Q122. The company reported Q421 adjusted EBITDA of €138m, up 80% from Q420 (€77m), supported by a recovery in the refining sector. We expect Hellenic to continue to benefit from favourable refining margins and higher oil demand in Q122 and note that margins increased as an immediate reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, as natural gas and oil prices have surged, we expect a negative impact on cash flow due to increased working capital (estimated at a c €300m outflow). Due to the complexity of factors and the uncertain environment, we do not adjust our post-FY22 refining margin estimates at this stage. Hellenic could potentially provide a dividend yield of c 10% for FY22, including a special dividend once the sale of DEPA Infrastructure completes.

Year-end

Revenue
(€m)

Adjusted EBITDA* (€m)

Net debt**
(€m)

P/E
(x)

Dividend yield
(%)

12/20

5,782

333

1,673

N/A

1.4

12/21

9,222

401

1,938

15.7

5.4

12/22e

9,169

645

2,097

9.5

4.2***

12/23e

9,214

664

1,897

9.2

4.2

Note: *Adjusted numbers account for inventory movements and other one-off items. **Net debt excludes lease liabilities. ***Excluding expected special dividend of €0.42/share from the sale of DEPA Infrastructure (including this, the dividend yield would be c 10%).

A strong Q421 performance results in FY21 growth

FY21 EBITDA was €401m, which is a 20% increase over FY20 (€333m) helped by a strong Q421 performance driven by a significant year-on-year increase in benchmark margins ($3.9/bbl versus -$0.1/bbl in Q420), higher fuel demand and operational improvements (supported by full utilisation of refineries with no scheduled turnarounds). However, at the profit level it was partially offset by high carbon costs and exceptionally high energy costs. With the realisation of Vision 2025, this could be mitigated by electricity generation from renewables.

Low dependency on Russian crude

Russian crude accounted for c 15% of total crude feed in H221, according to the company; it can be replaced by similar grades mostly from the Middle East going forward. However, sanctions causing supply disruptions due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have caused a significant increase in oil prices and volatility. However, as an immediate reaction to events, refining margins have increased. This supports a slight increase in our FY22 refining margin forecasts (and EBITDA). At this stage, given the uncertainties, we make no significant changes to our post-FY22 refining margin assumptions; we will monitor developments in the run up to Q1 results.

Valuation: Blended valuation of €7.48/share

Our valuation is based on the company’s current state, and is derived from a blend of DCF, EV/EBITDA and P/E. Our valuation increases to €7.48/share from €6.91/share, reflecting higher FY22 estimates and comparable multiples, while our DCF valuation is €7.31/share (€7.41/share previously).

Oil price volatility may adversely affect refining margins

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is affecting the oil price (the average price for March so far is $115/bbl, which is 35% above the average price in January of ($86/bbl), on the expectation that supply will further tighten due to restrictive sanctions on Russian energy. Since Russia started its invasion, the oil price has soared, touching a 14-year high intraday of over $139/bbl on 7 March as the United States and European allies discussed banning Russian oil imports. There is not enough capacity to compensate for the loss of the whole Russian supply (c 7m barrels a day), while OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, including Russia) decided not to increase supply.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) lifted its brent price forecast in its March Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for 2022 and 2023 to $105/bbl and $89/bbl from $83/bbl and $68/bbl, respectively. However, in the worst-case scenario, according to Rystad Energy, oil prices could hit $240/bbl this summer if Western countries roll out sanctions on Russia’s oil exports. If the high pricing environment continues, at some point it may affect fuel demand adversely, potentially accelerating the move towards non-fossil solutions. However, we note that raw material prices for renewables equipment, including electric vehicles, and gas prices have increased to unprecedented levels. Higher oil prices suggest crude feedstock costs may rise for European refiners, weighing on margins and limiting recovery from the pandemic’s effects.

Historically there is a negative correlation between oil prices and Hellenic’s refining margin until 2018, after which refining margins become more volatile, depending not only on crude price but also on demand for specific refinery products. As a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine there was a significant increase in refining margins in the first days of March, according to BP. However, as a result of sustained high oil prices, we expect this short-term increase to reverse followed by further downwards pressure on margins and possibly increased volatility.

Exhibit 1: Relation between oil prices ($/bbl) and Hellenic’s refining margin implied by benchmark ($/bbl) monthly average*

Source: Hellenic Petroleum, Edison Investment Research. Note: *March 2022 data based on 1–10 March average oil price; March 2022 refining margins for Hellenic are not available yet.

For Hellenic, as with other refineries, earnings depend on changes in refining margins. Hellenic does not provide information on hedging and, notwithstanding this, as a price taker, it can do little to mitigate short-term volatility in margins. In the longer term it can further increase vertical integration, scale up its petrochemical business and diversify into renewable energy sources (RES).

Vertical integration of Hellenic’s refineries allows for outperformance versus benchmark refining margins, with an average margin improvement over benchmarks of $5.7/bbl (2015–21) (Exhibit 2). This is supported by overperformance in refining operations (density escalation, crude slate optimisation and synergies), commercial and wholesale trading premia (such as logistics premia due to costal locations with own port facilities), as well as propylene contribution (reported under Petchems).

Exhibit 2: Hellenic’s refinery margin implied by benchmark and margin improvement over benchmark

Source: Hellenic Petroleum, Edison Investment Research

Additionally, sanctions imposed on Russia may partially affect tourism arrivals in Greece, adversely affecting fuel demand. However, according to the president of the Greek Tourism Confederation (SETE) it is ‘too early to make any safe statements today over the consequences on tourism’. Russian tourism arrivals in Greece had peaked at 1.3 million in 2013 and started easing in 2014. In 2019 (pre-pandemic) there were 583,000 arrivals from Russia (versus c 31 million arrivals in total). In addition to the loss of Russian vacationers, Greece may also see declines of up to 10,000 in the number of Ukrainian travellers.

Strong demand and margins supported earnings growth in Q421

In Q421, Hellenic reported adjusted EBITDA of €138m versus €77m in Q420 and €125m in Q321, mainly driven by the recovery in oil demand and improved realised refining margins ($11.8/bbl in Q421 versus $6.6/bbl in Q420). This resulted in FY21 EBITDA of €401m, which is a 20% increase over FY20 (€333m). During Q421, performance was supported by operational improvement due to higher refinery availability (no turnaround versus Aspropyrgos turnaround in Q420) that outweighed the impact from contango from last year. Additionally, marketing operations were positively affected by the introduction of new premium products in Greece. However, that was partially offset by a significant increase in variable operating costs, owing to a sharp rise in international natural gas prices to multi-year highs (€97/MWh in Q421 vs €15/MWh in Q420 and €49/MWh in Q321), which affected electricity prices, along with a significant increase in the carbon price (average of €72/tonne in Q421, up c 150% y-o-y).

Exhibit 3: Adjusted EBITDA bridge (Q421 versus Q420)

Source: Hellenic Petroleum. Note: EUA = European allowance (for CO2 emissions).

Benchmark margins improved in Q421 and so far in Q122

Refining margins recovered further in Q4 after reaching pre-pandemic levels in Q321. This increase was supported by higher demand for the main product cracks. Surging natural gas prices have been supportive for refined products, with substitution likely to lead to stronger demand. At the same time, we continue to see a recovery in oil demand as COVID-19 restrictions are eased. Refining benchmark margins improved further in February 2022, reaching $6.7/bbl (fluid catalytic cracking) and $8.4/bbl (hydrocracking). The two-month average (January–February) increase is shown in Exhibits 4 and 5. Higher benchmark margins along with an increase in sales (due to higher demand) should positively affect refining profitability in Q122, as the refining margins improve further from the low levels in 2021 driven by the pandemic.

Exhibit 4: Benchmark margin ($/bbl) for fluid catalytic cracking

Exhibit 5: Benchmark margin ($/bbl) for hydrocracking

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

Exhibit 4: Benchmark margin ($/bbl) for fluid catalytic cracking

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

Exhibit 5: Benchmark margin ($/bbl) for hydrocracking

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

Demand recovery

In Q421, demand for Greek domestic market fuels rose 25% y-o-y to 1.9m metric tons (MT) (Exhibit 6), returning to 2019 levels. Aviation fuel consumption rose significantly year-on-year, supported by a recovery in tourism (195k MT versus 77k MT), and was only 9% lower than in Q419. As for bunker fuel, demand increased to 590k MT (+11% y-o-y), due to increased coastal shipping activity, but was still significantly lower than in Q419 (Exhibit 7).

Exhibit 6: Domestic market fuel demand (MT 000s)

Exhibit 7: Aviation and bunker fuel demand (MT 000s)

Source: Hellenic Petroleum. Note: MOGAS = motor gas (petrol).

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

Exhibit 6: Domestic market fuel demand (MT 000s)

Source: Hellenic Petroleum. Note: MOGAS = motor gas (petrol).

Exhibit 7: Aviation and bunker fuel demand (MT 000s)

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

As pandemic-related restrictions reduce, we expect domestic traffic and air travel trends to remain favourable, driving demand for road and jet fuel in Greece and its neighbouring countries. This should benefit Hellenic in 2022. A decline in tourism arrivals from Russia due to sanctions may be a small offset (c 2% of total arrivals in 2019).

Changes to estimates

The refining benchmark margin of $3.9/bbl in Q421 was in line with our expectations, while the realised margin of $11.80/bbl in Q421 was $2.0/bbl above our forecasts. We have increased our estimated Q122 refining margin to $4.7/bbl from $3.2/bbl on the back of favourable January and February margins (implying $4.6/bbl) and significant margin increase in the first days of March. However, as we expect natural gas and electricity prices to remain high, we have increased costs in Q122 by €10m versus our previous estimates. Additionally, we reflect the impact of higher carbon prices (in line with current Bloomberg forecasts for 2022–26), which increase carbon costs by €8m in Q122 and €35m in FY22. All this translates into a net 2% increase in our EBITDA refining forecasts for FY22 (Exhibit 8), as higher margins and demand together with a favourable exchange rate (stronger US dollar) should offset the cost increases. If sustained, the March 2022 oil price hikes could lead to pressure on refining margins and higher refining margin volatility. However, due to the uncertain environment and complexity of the moving parts, we make only minor tweaks to our quarterly (in FY22) refining margins forecasts at this stage. We will continue to monitor developments in the run up to Q1 results.

Our total FY22 EBITDA forecast has increased by 3% supported by marketing (improved demand and higher margin products), as well as a €10m increase from the RES business due to the recent acquisition of an operational wind farm (38MW) and a solar photovoltaic (PV) plant (16MW). The company has guided that the current portfolio of 285MW (Kozani plus acquired projects) should generate ‘certainly over €30m’ EBITDA on an annual basis.

Exhibit 8: Changes to Edison forecasts

€m

Actual

Edison new

Edison old

Difference (%)

 

FY21

FY22e

FY23e

FY22e

FY23e

FY22e

FY23e

Adjusted EBITDA, refining

161

390

392

380

N/A

2%

N/A

Adjusted EBITDA, petrochemicals

131

109

113

109

N/A

0%

N/A

Adjusted EBITDA, marketing

120

127

133

121

N/A

5%

N/A

Adjusted EBITDA, RES

3

28

31

18

N/A

52%

N/A

Other

(14)

(8)

(4)

(4)

Total adjusted EBITDA

401

645

664

624

N/A

3%

N/A

Adjusted EBIT

144

390

409

373

N/A

5%

N/A

Net finance costs

(106)

(90)

(92)

(80)

N/A

12%

N/A

Adjusted net income

144

237

245

231

N/A

3%

N/A

Source: Hellenic Petroleum data, Edison Investment Research

Investments in green transition were 60% of total capex in 2021

The balance sheet at end-December showed net debt (excluding lease liabilities) of €1,938m, €265m higher than end-FY20 net debt of €1,673m. FY21 operating cash flow of €270m was negatively affected by increased inventories (€690m), due to higher oil prices. Furthermore, Hellenic invested €400m, with 60% directed to RES projects (EU taxonomy eligible investments): the Kozani project (construction completed in Q421) and the acquisition of the 38MW Evia wind farms for €85m (Q421). Based on a November 2019 Hellenic presentation, internal rates of return (IRRs) for such projects in Greece may vary in the range of 5–8% for acquisition projects and 8–10% for organic development projects. Based on technological advancements and current market dynamics, we expect IRRs may now be higher than this. The company now owns 0.3GW of operational RES projects. In December, Hellenic completed the hive-down of its refining, supply, trading and petrochemical businesses, and plans to rebrand the company before the annual general meeting (AGM), which is scheduled for June, with a new name, logo and corporate identity in line with its Vision 2025.

In FY22, we expect operating cash flow of €264m, slightly lower than FY21, due to a negative impact from increased working capital (c €300m) due to a higher oil price. We expect free cash flow to be negative (€159m), due to the ongoing investment programme along with higher maintenance capex (€40m) affected by turnarounds in Elefsina (H122) and Thessaloniki (H222). Our end-FY22 net debt (excluding lease liabilities) forecast is €2,097m (versus €1,558m previously). We expect a rebound in operating and free cash flow in FY23.

The company has proposed a €120m annual dividend for 2021 (€0.40/share) to be paid in two tranches, one in April (€0.30/share) and the remainder (€0.10) after the AGM, in June. This is €0.30/share above the dividend for FY20 of €0.10/share, which had been cut significantly from €0.50/share in FY19. Additionally, Hellenic expects the sale of DEPA Infrastructure (in which Hellenic owns a 35% share) to be completed in H122, subject to regulatory approvals (not yet included in our model). Management indicated that it plans to return 50% of the proceeds to shareholders in FY22, equating to c €130m or €0.42 per share. Combined with our forecast dividend for FY22 of €0.31 per share, this would give a total estimated dividend for FY22 of €0.73 per share, equating to a yield of c 10%.

Valuation

Our forecasts and valuation are based on the company’s current state. We do not include future projects presented in Vision 2025, or any capital expenditure or returns associated with them. We await further information about this from the company, which should be presented with the rebranding at the AGM. However, we see potential for upside from the new strategy and plan to update our valuation once we have better visibility. Vision 2025 will support the growth of Hellenic’s clean energy activities, including investment of c €1.7bn on wind and solar projects, targeting 2GW by 2030. It also involves upgrading Hellenic’s core refining operations aimed at a significant reduction in CO2 (50% by 2030, including both a reduction in emissions and offset through RES).

We value Hellenic using a blend of DCF, leveraged and unleveraged EV/EBITDA, and P/E multiples, arriving at a valuation of 7.48/share, 8% above our last published estimate (€6.91/share), primarily on account of higher FY22 estimates.

Hellenic trades at FY22e multiples of 9.5x P/E and 6.5x EV/EBITDA, compared with the European peer group averages of 7.2x and 5.2x, respectively. Hellenic’s EV per complexity-adjusted barrel is $1,555bopd, which is higher than the European peer average of 1,190bopd. Hellenic has the most-indebted balance sheet and highest leverage ratio among peers.

Our DCF valuation is at €7.31/share versus €7.41/share previously, adversely affected by expected working capital movements in FY22 driven by high oil prices, while the higher carbon prices (in line with current Bloomberg forecasts for 2022–26) should be partially offset by higher refining margins in FY22. Due to the uncertain environment and complexity of factors, we keep margins beyond FY22 unchanged for now and continue to monitor developments in the run up to Q1 results. Our valuation is based on cash flows to 2035, using a 7% cost of capital. We incorporate a terminal value, which assumes the unwinding of working capital and 1% terminal growth.

Exhibit 9: Hellenic valuation

Source: Edison Investment Research, Refinitiv. Note: Priced at 31 March 2022. Range in DCF for ±1% WACC.

Exhibit 10: DCF (€/share) sensitivity to terminal growth and WACC

Terminal growth/

WACC

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

5.0%

9.85

10.45

11.26

12.39

14.08

6.0%

8.09

8.50

9.02

9.72

10.70

7.0%

6.67

6.96

7.31

7.77

8.37

8.0%

5.50

5.71

5.95

6.26

6.66

9.0%

4.52

4.67

4.85

5.06

5.33

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 11: Peer group valuation

 

Market cap
($m)

EV
($m)

P/E
FY22e
(x)

P/E
FY23e
(x)

EV/EBITDA
FY22e
(x)

EV/EBITDA
FY23e
(x)

FCF yield
FY22e
(%)

FCF yield
FY23e
(%)

P/CF
FY22e
(x)

P/CF
FY23e
(x)

Net debt/
EBITDA FY22e
(x)

Net debt/
EBITDA FY23e
(x)

Div yield
FY22e
(%)

Refining capacity
(kbopd)

EV/bopd of complexity adjusted capacity
($/kbopd)

Edison estimate – Hellenic

2,270

4,208

9.5

9.2

6.5

6.3

2.2%

16.9%

8.6

4.3

3.0

3.2

4.2%

344

1,555

Grupa Lotos

2,586

2,774

6.6

6.6

3.2

3.1

7.8%

-0.2%

4.8

4.4

0.2

0.2

1.1%

211

1,185

Hellenic Petroleum (consensus)

2,516

4,976

10.0

9.2

7.2

6.8

-

-

3.8

3.8

3.5

3.3

6.7%

344

1,555

Motor Oil Hellas Corinth Refineries

1,740

3,373

5.7

5.0

5.3

4.7

-

-

 

-

1.8

1.6

8.4%

186

1,572

Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen

7,708

11,110

7.0

6.5

4.1

3.7

-7.5%

-6.2%

3.3

3.0

1.2

1.1

1.1%

718

1,681

Saras

713

1,274

-

-

5.4

4.2

7.7%

3.8%

4.2

3.0

2.4

1.9

1.0%

300

363

Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri

3,548

4,473

9.5

7.0

6.2

5.1

15.2%

14.3%

5.1

5.4

1.4

1.2

0.4%

602

781

Europe average

3,135

4,663

7.7

6.8

5.2

4.6

5.8%

2.9%

4.3

3.9

1.8

1.5

3.1%

394

1,190

CVR Energy

2,455

3,822

24.1

23.0

4.8

5.4

11.2%

10.1%

4.1

5.5

1.5

1.6

0.0%

185

1,589

HollyFrontier

8,850

12,362

9.8

9.0

6.3

5.9

9.8%

10.5%

4.9

5.0

1.5

1.4

2.7%

457

2,164

Marathon Petroleum

47,674

69,749

16.2

15.9

7.4

7.5

9.3%

9.9%

6.3

5.8

 

 

2.9%

2,874

2,290

Phillips 66

48,322

62,094

11.2

11.0

8.7

8.6

7.2%

7.9%

7.6

7.5

1.6

1.6

4.2%

2,184

2,585

Valero Energy

41,146

52,281

12.8

13.4

6.9

7.0

9.2%

9.5%

6.9

6.5

 

 

4.0%

3,100

1,479

Americas average

29,690

40,062

14.8

14.5

6.8

6.9

9.3%

9.6%

6.0

6.0

1.5

1.5

2.8%

1,760

2,021

Total average

15,206

20,753

11.3

10.7

6.0

5.7

7.8%

6.6%

5.1

5.0

1.7

1.5

3.0%

1,015

1,568

Total median

3,548

4,976

9.9

9.1

6.2

5.7

9.2%

9.5%

4.9

5.2

1.5

1.6

2.7%

457

1,572

Source: Edison Investment Research, Refinitiv. Note: Priced at 31 March 2022. *FX = US$1.11/€.

Exhibit 12: Financial summary

IFRS; year-end 31 December

€m

2019

2020

2021

2022e

2023e

INCOME STATEMENT

Total revenues

 

8,857

5,782

9,222

9,169

9,214

Cost of sales

 

(8,052)

(5,818)

(8,346)

(8,307)

(8,489)

Gross profit

 

805

(36)

876

861

725

SG&A (expenses)

 

(470)

(453)

(478)

(487)

(483)

Other income/(expense)

 

6

(13)

3

5

6

Exceptionals and adjustments

 

2

(587)

256

(10)

(160)

Reported EBIT

 

341

(501)

400

380

249

Finance income/(expense)

 

(151)

(115)

(106)

(90)

(92)

Profit (loss) from JVs / associates (post tax)

 

18

30

97

16

10

Other income (includes exceptionals)

 

(1)

5

16

0

0

Reported PBT

 

207

(582)

407

306

167

Income tax expense (includes exceptionals)

 

(43)

185

(66)

(76)

(42)

Reported net income

 

164

(397)

341

229

125

Basic average number of shares, m

 

306

306

306

306

306

Basic EPS (€)

 

0.5

(1.3)

1.1

0.8

0.4

Adjusted EBITDA*

 

570

333

401

645

664

Adjusted EBITDA margin (%)

 

6.4

5.8

4.3

7.0

7.2

Adjusted EBIT*

 

339

85

144

390

409

Adjusted PBT

 

205

5

151

316

327

Adjusted net income

 

185

5

144

237

245

Adjusted EPS (€)

 

0.61

0.02

0.47

0.78

0.80

DPS (€)

 

0.50

0.10

0.40

0.31

0.31

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

 

 

Property, plant and equipment

 

3,298

3,380

3,485

3,443

3,336

Intangible assets

 

104

106

176

176

176

Other non-current assets

 

744

797

692

705

712

Total non-current assets

 

4,146

4,283

4,353

4,324

4,224

Cash and equivalents

 

1,088

1,203

1,053

894

1,094

Inventories

 

1,013

694

1,379

1,550

1,430

Trade and other receivables

 

840

582

711

711

674

Other current assets

 

6

12

284

284

284

Total current assets

 

2,947

2,492

3,427

3,438

3,483

Non-current loans and borrowings

 

1,610

2,131

1,517

1,517

1,517

Non-current lease liabilities

 

169

171

172

172

172

Other non-current liabilities

 

448

294

356

356

528

Total non-current liabilities

 

2,227

2,597

2,045

2,045

2,045

Trade and other payables

 

1,402

1,547

2,094

1,970

1,884

Current loans and borrowings

 

1,022

745

1,474

1,474

1,474

Current lease liabilities

 

31

30

29

29

29

Other current liabilities

 

84

8

8

8

8

Total current liabilities

 

2,539

2,329

3,606

3,482

3,396

Equity attributable to company

 

2,262

1,786

2,065

2,172

2,202

Non-controlling interest

 

65

62

64

64

64

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Profit before tax

 

207

(582)

407

306

167

Depreciation and amortisation

 

231

248

249

255

255

Other adjustments

 

172

233

214

74

82

Movements in working capital

 

26

528

(608)

(295)

70

Income taxes paid

 

(149)

23

8

(76)

(42)

Cash from operations (CFO)

 

486

450

270

264

532

Capex

 

(241)

(288)

(400)

(214)

(148)

Acquisitions & disposals net

 

(5)

(6)

(2)

0

0

Other investing activities

 

29

17

27

15

13

Cash used in investing activities (CFIA)

(218)

(277)

(376)

(199)

(135)

Net proceeds from issue of shares

 

0

0

0

0

0

Dividends paid in period

 

(155)

(154)

(32)

(122)

(95)

Movements in debt

 

(111)

252

107

0

0

Other financing activities

 

(160)

(144)

(137)

(102)

(102)

Cash from financing activities (CFF)

 

(458)

(47)

(61)

(224)

(197)

Increase/(decrease) in cash and equivalents

 

(189)

125

(167)

(159)

201

Currency translation differences and other

 

2

(11)

17

0

0

Cash and equivalents at end of period

1,088

1,203

1,053

894

1,094

Net (debt) cash (including leasing)

 

(1,744)

(1,874)

(2,140)

(2,299)

(2,098)

Net (debt) cash (excluding leasing)

 

(1,544)

(1,673)

(1,938)

(2,097)

(1,897)

Source: Hellenic Petroleum, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Excludes associates.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Hellenic Petroleum and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Hellenic Petroleum. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison’s policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers’ exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Hellenic Petroleum and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Hellenic Petroleum. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison’s policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers’ exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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