Last close As at 05/08/2026
EUR15.00
— 0.00 (0.00%)
Market capitalisation
EUR709m
Research: TMT
As promised, Tinexta has provided new financial guidance for FY20. Against a tough macroeconomic backdrop, the new guidance implies a y-o-y revenue decline of c 3%, but an improvement in EBITDA of 1%. This is encouraging given the cyclicality of some of the businesses and highlights that the cost base has been managed well. The expected improvement in margin for Digital Trust is impressive. The EV/EBITDA multiple for FY20e is 9.4x. We maintain our estimates.
Tinexta |
Reassuring guidance for FY20 |
FY20 guidance |
Professional services |
24 June 2020 |
Share price performance
Business description
Analysts
Tinexta is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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As promised, Tinexta has provided new financial guidance for FY20. Against a tough macroeconomic backdrop, the new guidance implies a y-o-y revenue decline of c 3%, but an improvement in EBITDA of 1%. This is encouraging given the cyclicality of some of the businesses and highlights that the cost base has been managed well. The expected improvement in margin for Digital Trust is impressive. The EV/EBITDA multiple for FY20e is 9.4x. We maintain our estimates.
Year end |
Revenue (€m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
PE |
Yield |
12/18 |
238.7 |
48.3 |
0.74 |
0.23 |
16.3 |
1.9 |
12/19 |
258.7 |
45.7 |
0.65 |
0.00 |
18.5 |
0.0 |
12/20e |
250.7 |
48.6 |
0.71 |
0.23 |
16.9 |
2.0 |
12/21e |
263.5 |
53.8 |
0.79 |
0.26 |
15.3 |
2.2 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Tinexta has provided new guidance for FY20, having withdrawn prior guidance earlier in the year. The guidance for revenue of at least €250m and EBITDA of €72m, is broadly in line with our forecasts of €250.7m and €71.3m, respectively. The guidance implies a decline in revenue of 3.4% in FY20, but growth in EBITDA of 1%. It compares with management’s guidance prior to COVID-19 of at least €270m and EBITDA of at least €78m; COVID-19 has therefore reduced management’s expectations for FY20 by 7–8%.
By division, versus FY19, management expects Digital Trust’s revenue to be flat and EBITDA to increase; revenue and EBITDA for Innovation & Marketing Services to be slightly down; and both for Credit Information & Management to reduce y-o-y, with improvement in H220 due to demand for advisory services to access government financing guarantees. Directionally, the notable difference is management’s expectation of improved profitability for Digital Trust versus our forecast of a modest margin decline from 27.7% in FY19 to 27.4% in FY20.
The new Stock Option Plan (1.65m options versus existing share count of 47.2m shares) will incentivise 29 key executives to grow EBITDA through FY22, but the targets for the three-year business plan (FY20–22) have yet to be disclosed.
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Studio’s online and value-based offer produced strong trading during lockdown, with 55% y-o-y product sales growth in the first 11 weeks, which compares very favourably with its online peers. It looks well placed, with tight stock management, as the high street re-commences trading, which is likely to be very competitive. Due to the ongoing uncertainty from COVID-19 and the timing of the Education sale, management is unable to provide guidance for FY21e.