Fluence’s Q2 statement confirms FY18 guidance and highlights encouraging progress in China. The company still has a lot to deliver in H218, but the fundamentals of its market (the supply of distributed water/wastewater treatment) look very attractive, in our view.
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Fluence |
Q2 trading update
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30 July 2018 |
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Fluence is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Fluence’s Q2 statement confirms FY18 guidance and highlights encouraging progress in China. The company still has a lot to deliver in H218, but the fundamentals of its market (the supply of distributed water/wastewater treatment) look very attractive, in our view.
On track to double
Fluence reiterated guidance of $105-115m in revenues for FY18, a near doubling of pro-forma sales y-o-y. After reporting $22.6m in Q2, the mid-range of this target implies revenues of $77m in H218 ($38.6m per quarter). The timing of revenue recognition on large contracts is hard to predict and, following a miss in Q417, investors may need more evidence of delivery. Nevertheless, this forecast is underpinned by a revenue backlog of $84m, $49m of which is expected to be recognised in H2 (predominantly the San Quintin and PDVSA projects), and a very healthy pipeline of business yet to reach the order book.
China momentum building…
The Chinese market has huge long-term growth potential in our view (see China Water Affairs). Fluence has been steadily building up its presence by signing up regional partners and demonstrating the cost effectiveness of its technology. Q2 provided significant evidence of commercial traction with a further three new partners delivering their first sales. Revenue from China is likely to be modest in FY18 (low single-digit millions) but has the potential to expand dramatically in FY19 and beyond, in our view.
…and momentum elsewhere
While no financial details were provided, progress across other regions, particularly Europe and Latin America, and further sales of smart packaged solutions like Nirobox, were also highlighted. The company consumed $14.2m in cash from operating activities ($17.7m in total) and expects to consume a further $13.6m in Q3. We expect the ramp up of San Quintin to bolster cash generation in Q4.
Valuation: Fundamentals factored in
At A$0.39/share and using Q2 $40.2m net cash, Fluence trades at 2.7x consensus FY20 EBITDA, a multiple which suggests the market is sceptical about delivery. Re-iteration of guidance and China commentary should provide some reassurance. We believe the decentralised water and wastewater treatment solution market has very attractive long-term growth prospects and with a suite of unique IP and global resources, Fluence is well-positioned to address this opportunity.
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Consensus estimates
Source: Canaccord Genuity (see https://www.fluencecorp.com/investor-news/) |
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Disclaimer
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Disclaimer
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Research: TMT
XP Power reported strong H1 revenue and earnings growth, despite significant currency headwinds. Order intake remained robust, providing good support going into H218. While management’s expectations for FY18 are unchanged, we have revised our forecasts to reflect currency moves and tightness in the supply chain. This results in normalised EPS upgrades of 0.2% in FY18 and 2.4% in FY19. Post the recent acquisitions, we believe the company’s more comprehensive product range positions it well to grow market share further.