GFT remains on target and thematic trends are broadly the same. Underlying Q1 revenue growth was solid at 13.3%, helped by 3% more days in the period, and management guidance was maintained. GFT’s retail banking activities remain buoyant, benefiting from digital banking projects in continental Europe and the group’s first retail banking project in the US, while the investment banking backdrop remains challenging, not helped by Brexit and the political changes in the US. With the sustained healthy outlook in digitalisation across the retail banking sector and the prospect of a recovery for the investment banking market (since these businesses need to invest in IT to sustain growth), we believe the shares are looking increasingly appealing on c 13x our FY19e earnings.
GFT |
Q1 constant currency organic growth was 13% |
Q1 results |
Software & comp services |
12 May 2017 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
GFT Technologies is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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GFT remains on target and thematic trends are broadly the same. Underlying Q1 revenue growth was solid at 13.3%, helped by 3% more days in the period, and management guidance was maintained. GFT’s retail banking activities remain buoyant, benefiting from digital banking projects in continental Europe and the group’s first retail banking project in the US, while the investment banking backdrop remains challenging, not helped by Brexit and the political changes in the US. With the sustained healthy outlook in digitalisation across the retail banking sector and the prospect of a recovery for the investment banking market (since these businesses need to invest in IT to sustain growth), we believe the shares are looking increasingly appealing on c 13x our FY19e earnings.
Year |
Revenue (€m) |
EBT* |
EPS* |
Adjusted EPS** (c) |
P/E |
Yield |
12/15 |
373.5 |
32.5 |
96.2 |
119.4 |
16.6 |
1.5 |
12/16 |
422.6 |
33.0 |
92.0 |
115.4 |
17.2 |
1.5 |
12/17e |
455.0 |
35.1 |
92.2 |
116.9 |
16.9 |
1.7 |
12/18e |
500.5 |
40.7 |
109.0 |
129.9 |
15.2 |
1.9 |
Note: *Earnings before tax and EPS are statutory, after the amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items. **Adjusted EPS is before amortisation and exceptionals.
Q1 results: Total revenue growth was 14%
Q1 revenue grew by 14% to €111.1m, which includes 13.3% organic growth, a 2.2% currency headwind and €2.9m from Habber Tec Brazil, which was acquired in April 2016. Employee numbers grew 16% over the year to 4,833, but were down 1% over the quarter. EBITDA (GFT definition) slipped by 2% to €9.9m, but rose 10% after adding back €1m restructuring costs and a €250k earnout payment for Habber Tec. Net debt rose by €19.2m over the quarter to €61.2m, while outstanding acquisition liabilities and the pension deficit take the adjusted net debt to €102.1m. We note that most cash flow is generated in H2, as some of GFT’s largest customers utilise their budgets at the end of the financial year.
Guidance and forecasts – all maintained
Management has maintained its guidance, which includes FY17 revenue of €450m, EBITDA of €48.5m and EBT of €35m. The longer-term goal remains the same: to reach €800m of revenues along with a 12% EBITDA margin by 2020. This target includes c €180m revenues from acquisitions, which management is confident it can finance through internal cash generation. We have maintained all of our P&L forecasts.
Valuation: Attractive if it can improve margins
The stock trades on 1.13x our FY18e EV/sales and 10.3x EV/EBITDA, while its larger global IT services peers typically trade in the ranges of c 1.7-2.1x revenues and c 8.7-12.0x EBITDA. Our DCF model (which assumes a WACC of 9%, a 10-year revenue CAGR of 7.3% and 12% long-term EBITDA margins) values the shares at €23.18 (previously €22.84), c 17% above the current share price.
Q1 results: Constant currency organic growth was 13%
Q1 revenue grew by 14% to €111.1m, which includes 13.3% organic growth, a 2.2% currency headwind (mainly the British pound against the Polish zloty and the euro against the Brazilian real) and €2.9m from Habber Tec Brazil, which was acquired in April 2016. The growth was helped by 3% additional working days in Q1, while there will be 5% fewer days in Q2. Consequently, Q2 could be weaker than Q1. The Americas and UK segment produced organic growth of 6.1% (largely cancelled by a 4.6% currency headwind) while continental Europe grew by 21.6%, with the difference reflecting strong digital banking growth in continental European markets balanced by challenging investment banking in Anglo Saxon markets. However, the Americas and UK segment also includes a growing retail banking operating, which represents c 14% of the segment’s revenues, up from c 5%, reflecting the Habber Tec acquisition in Brazil and the group’s first major retail banking project in North America, which added €0.3m revenues in Q1. Revenue from investment banking customers fell by 2.5%, and the two largest customers, Deutsche Bank and Barclays, fell by a combined 9%. Continental Europe experienced strong growth at Deutsche Bank, Banco Sabadell and San Paolo, and most new projects are in digital banking.
Employee numbers grew 16% over the year to 4,833 (though were down 1% sequentially over the quarter), reflecting a 21% growth in the group’s near shore centres. Meanwhile, the number of freelancers fell by 6%. EBITDA (GFT definition) slipped by 2% to €9.9m, but rose 10% after adding back €1m restructuring costs (which related to restructuring of sales in the US and the UK due to changed market conditions) and a €250k earnout payment for Habber Tec. We have adjusted only for the €0.25m earnout payment (expected to total €1m for the year), and on that basis Edison adjusted EBITDA was flat at €10.2m. Net debt rose by €19.2m over the quarter to €61.2m, while outstanding acquisition liabilities of €32m and the €8.9m pension deficit take the adjusted net debt to €102.1m.
Exhibit 1: Quarterly analysis
€000s |
2015 |
2016 |
2016 |
2016 |
2016 |
2016 |
2017 |
2017e |
2017e |
FY |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
FY |
Q1 |
Q2-Q4 |
FY |
|
GFT (continuing) |
373,460 |
97,386 |
109,419 |
103,938 |
93,946 |
404,689 |
108,200 |
340,676 |
448,876 |
WG Systems (Habber Tec) |
|
|
1,220 |
2,320 |
740 |
4,280 |
2,900 |
3,224 |
6,124 |
Total revenue |
373,510 |
97,386 |
110,639 |
106,258 |
94,686 |
422,559 |
111,100 |
343,900 |
455,000 |
Cost of materials |
(62,489) |
(14,614) |
(15,963) |
(15,080) |
(14,190) |
(59,848) |
(13,788) |
(54,462) |
(68,250) |
Gross profit |
311,021 |
82,772 |
94,676 |
91,178 |
80,495 |
362,711 |
97,312 |
289,438 |
386,750 |
Op costs before depreciation |
(265,504) |
(72,554) |
(83,285) |
(78,717) |
(80,900) |
(315,456) |
(87,137) |
(250,113) |
(337,250) |
Adjusted EBITDA |
45,517 |
10,218 |
11,391 |
12,461 |
(404) |
47,255 |
10,175 |
39,325 |
49,500 |
Depreciation |
(5,154) |
(1,356) |
(1,405) |
(1,538) |
(1,953) |
(6,252) |
(1,569) |
(4,346) |
(5,915) |
Adjusted operating profit |
40,363 |
8,862 |
9,986 |
10,923 |
(2,358) |
41,003 |
8,607 |
34,978 |
43,585 |
Operating Margin |
10.8% |
9.1% |
9.0% |
10.3% |
(2.5%) |
9.7% |
7.7% |
10.2% |
9.6% |
Net interest |
(1,703) |
(344) |
(503) |
(440) |
(459) |
(1,746) |
(321) |
(1,679) |
(2,000) |
Edison profit before tax (norm) |
38,660 |
8,518 |
9,483 |
10,483 |
(2,817) |
39,257 |
8,285 |
33,300 |
41,585 |
Associates |
(30) |
(15) |
22 |
4 |
(66) |
(54) |
(5) |
5 |
0 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles* |
(6,105) |
(1,467) |
(1,522) |
(1,380) |
(1,365) |
(5,734) |
(1,400) |
(4,100) |
(5,500) |
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
(421) |
0 |
0 |
(421) |
(250) |
(750) |
(1,000) |
Profit before tax (FRS 3) |
32,525 |
7,036 |
7,563 |
9,107 |
(4,248) |
33,048 |
6,631 |
28,454 |
35,085 |
Source: GFT, Edison Investment Research
GFT receives a disproportionate level of cash in Q4, as some of its largest customers utilise their budgets at the end of the financial year. Q1 and Q2 typically have weaker cash flows. The remaining acquisition liabilities relate to Sempla (now GFT Italy), which are scheduled for payment in early 2018, and Habber Tec. The group limits its net debt to around 2x EBITDA, which calculates at €97m based on €48.5m EBITDA for FY17. With net debt at €61.2m, or €102.1m after outstanding acquisition liabilities and the pension deficit, this puts some limitation on acquisitions until debt levels are paid down.
Exhibit 2: Financial position
€m |
31-Dec-15 |
31-Mar-16 |
30-Jun-16 |
30-Sep-16 |
31-Dec-16 |
31-Mar-17 |
Cash |
(47.0) |
(42.9) |
(42.2) |
(44.1) |
(62.3) |
(44.1) |
Financial debt |
83.4 |
91.9 |
112.6 |
104.4 |
104.3 |
105.4 |
Net (cash)/debt |
36.5 |
49.0 |
70.3 |
60.3 |
42.1 |
61.2 |
Investments |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Outstanding acquisition liabilities* |
13.9 |
14.1 |
15.9 |
16.1 |
34.1 |
32.0 |
Pension deficit |
8.3 |
8.7 |
8.8 |
8.9 |
8.7 |
8.9 |
Adjusted net (cash)/debt |
58.7 |
71.8 |
95.0 |
85.3 |
84.9 |
102.1 |
Source: GFT accounts. Note: *Includes earnouts and deferred payments. Excludes €0.15m deferred payment for emagine.
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
€'000s |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017e |
2018e |
2019e |
|
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
|
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
279,235 |
373,507 |
422,559 |
455,000 |
500,500 |
550,550 |
Cost of Materials |
(52,194) |
(62,486) |
(59,848) |
(68,250) |
(75,075) |
(82,583) |
|
Gross Profit |
227,042 |
311,021 |
362,711 |
386,750 |
425,425 |
467,968 |
|
EBITDA |
|
32,834 |
44,586 |
46,765 |
48,500 |
54,456 |
63,613 |
Adjusted EBITDA |
|
35,240 |
45,517 |
47,255 |
49,500 |
54,456 |
63,613 |
EBIT |
|
26,433 |
34,258 |
34,848 |
37,085 |
42,449 |
50,681 |
Adjusted Operating Profit |
|
31,875 |
40,363 |
41,003 |
43,585 |
47,949 |
56,181 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(4,711) |
(6,105) |
(5,734) |
(5,500) |
(5,500) |
(5,500) |
|
Exceptionals |
(731) |
0 |
(421) |
(1,000) |
0 |
0 |
|
Associates |
(12) |
(30) |
(54) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Operating Profit |
26,421 |
34,228 |
34,794 |
37,085 |
42,449 |
50,681 |
|
Net Interest |
(1,015) |
(1,703) |
(1,746) |
(2,000) |
(1,750) |
(1,450) |
|
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
30,848 |
38,630 |
39,203 |
41,585 |
46,199 |
54,731 |
Earnings Before Tax |
|
25,406 |
32,525 |
33,048 |
35,085 |
40,699 |
49,231 |
Tax |
(6,819) |
(5,979) |
(8,819) |
(10,812) |
(12,012) |
(14,230) |
|
Net inc from discontinued ops |
1,368 |
(1,209) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Profit After Tax (norm) |
25,397 |
31,441 |
30,384 |
30,773 |
34,187 |
40,501 |
|
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
19,955 |
25,336 |
24,229 |
24,273 |
28,687 |
35,001 |
|
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
26.3 |
26.3 |
26.3 |
26.3 |
26.3 |
26.3 |
|
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
96.5 |
119.4 |
115.4 |
116.9 |
129.9 |
153.8 |
EPS - normalised & fully diluted (c) |
|
96.5 |
119.4 |
115.4 |
116.9 |
129.9 |
153.8 |
EPS - FRS 3 (c) |
|
75.8 |
96.2 |
92.0 |
92.2 |
109.0 |
133.0 |
Dividend per share (c) |
25.00 |
30.00 |
30.00 |
33.00 |
37.00 |
41.00 |
|
Gross Margin (%) |
81.3 |
83.3 |
85.8 |
85.0 |
85.0 |
85.0 |
|
EBITDA Margin (%) |
11.8 |
11.9 |
11.1 |
10.7 |
10.9 |
11.6 |
|
Adjusted Operating Margin (%) |
11.4 |
10.8 |
9.7 |
9.6 |
9.6 |
10.2 |
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
148,732 |
173,451 |
175,538 |
174,133 |
172,136 |
169,114 |
Intangible Assets |
125,852 |
139,480 |
136,920 |
131,420 |
125,920 |
120,420 |
|
Tangible Assets |
17,780 |
26,488 |
30,908 |
35,003 |
38,506 |
40,984 |
|
Other |
5,100 |
7,484 |
7,710 |
7,710 |
7,710 |
7,710 |
|
Current Assets |
|
152,921 |
153,357 |
190,504 |
216,661 |
217,760 |
258,282 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
28 |
30 |
33 |
36 |
|
Debtors |
108,216 |
94,828 |
117,308 |
126,314 |
138,946 |
152,840 |
|
Cash |
38,129 |
46,978 |
62,290 |
79,438 |
67,903 |
94,528 |
|
Current Liabilities |
|
(140,614) |
(90,628) |
(114,723) |
(121,643) |
(132,037) |
(143,471) |
Creditors |
(94,582) |
(90,008) |
(96,414) |
(103,334) |
(113,729) |
(125,163) |
|
Short term borrowings |
(46,032) |
(620) |
(18,308) |
(18,308) |
(18,308) |
(18,308) |
|
Long Term Liabilities |
|
(60,628) |
(111,733) |
(135,418) |
(135,418) |
(101,292) |
(101,292) |
Long term borrowings |
(34,131) |
(82,817) |
(86,035) |
(86,035) |
(86,035) |
(86,035) |
|
Other long term liabilities |
(26,497) |
(28,916) |
(49,383) |
(49,383) |
(15,257) |
(15,257) |
|
Net Assets |
|
100,412 |
124,447 |
115,901 |
133,733 |
156,567 |
182,633 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
24,585 |
55,575 |
28,772 |
47,225 |
51,953 |
60,861 |
Net Interest |
(997) |
(1,447) |
(1,613) |
(2,000) |
(1,750) |
(1,450) |
|
Tax |
(8,152) |
(11,424) |
(7,164) |
(9,980) |
(11,088) |
(13,135) |
|
Capex |
(9,680) |
(14,456) |
(10,160) |
(10,010) |
(10,010) |
(9,910) |
|
Acquisitions/disposals |
(58,472) |
(16,760) |
(6,662) |
(189) |
(31,953) |
0 |
|
Shares issued |
(1,494) |
(620) |
1,578 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Dividends |
(6,584) |
(6,584) |
(7,898) |
(7,898) |
(8,688) |
(9,741) |
|
Net Cash Flow |
(60,794) |
4,284 |
(3,147) |
17,148 |
(11,535) |
26,625 |
|
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
(19,410) |
42,034 |
36,449 |
42,053 |
24,905 |
36,440 |
Other |
(650) |
1,301 |
(2,457) |
0 |
() |
0 |
|
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
42,034 |
36,449 |
42,053 |
24,905 |
36,440 |
9,816 |
Source: GFT accounts, Edison Investment Research (forecasts)
|
|
Research: Financials
Nürnberger Beteiligungs-AG (NBG) is now in its 134th year of operation and is one of Germany’s oldest and most recognised insurers, with gross premium income of €3.3bn. While its market share of the life sector is small (c 3%), in disability it ranks among the top providers, with a market share of 9.2% in 2016. Aided by a refocusing strategy, NBG reported profits of €58m in 2016 (2015: €47m). It is also a solid dividend payer, paying €3.00/share for the fourth consecutive year. Expected future restructuring measures suggest potential for further efficiency and market share gains.