Hellenic Petroleum — Positive Q120 results despite market conditions

HELLENiQ ENERGY (ASE: ELPE)

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Research: Energy & Resources

Hellenic Petroleum — Positive Q120 results despite market conditions

Hellenic Petroleum (ELPE) reported that Q120 production was 8% higher than Q119 while adjusted EBITDA increased 4% to €128m. Lower oil prices in the quarter led to improving margins; however, as the COVID-19 pandemic started to affect global demand for oil products, margins began to come under pressure. We expect this pressure will continue for the next three to six months as economies around the world slowly recover and lockdown measures begin to ease. Hellenic’s high complexity index and large storage capacity allow for flexibility in times of uncertainty and given the company’s healthy balance sheet, we expect it to weather this period. Our updated valuation is down 5% to €7.00/share to reflect the current industry headwinds and lower global oil demand.

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Energy & Resources

Hellenic Petroleum

Positive Q120 results despite market conditions

Q120 results

Oil & gas

12 June 2020

Price

€6.48

Market cap

€1,981m

US$1.11/€

Net debt (€m) at 31 March 2020

1,907

Shares in issue

305.6m

Free float

19%

Code

ELPE

Primary exchange

ASE

Secondary exchange

LSE

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

4.8

18.5

(28.5)

Rel (local)

(3.1)

10.7

(6.2)

52-week high/low

€9.55

€4.56

Business description

Hellenic Petroleum operates three refineries in Greece with a total capacity of 344kbod and has sizeable marketing (domestic and international) and petrochemicals divisions.

Next events

H220 results

Q320

Kozani 204MW portfolio acquisition close

Q420

Analyst

Carlos Gomes

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Hellenic Petroleum is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Hellenic Petroleum (ELPE) reported that Q120 production was 8% higher than Q119 while adjusted EBITDA increased 4% to €128m. Lower oil prices in the quarter led to improving margins; however, as the COVID-19 pandemic started to affect global demand for oil products, margins began to come under pressure. We expect this pressure will continue for the next three to six months as economies around the world slowly recover and lockdown measures begin to ease. Hellenic’s high complexity index and large storage capacity allow for flexibility in times of uncertainty and given the company’s healthy balance sheet, we expect it to weather this period. Our updated valuation is down 5% to €7.00/share to reflect the current industry headwinds and lower global oil demand.

Year-end

Revenue
(€m)

Adjusted EBITDA* (€m)

Net debt
(€m)

P/E
(x)

Dividend yield
(%)

12/18

9,769

730

1,460

8.0

11.6**

12/19

8,857

570

1,544

11.8

7.7

12/20e

8,318

484

1,984

14.6

7.7

12/21e

8,393

608

1,917

9.6

7.7

Note: *Adjusted numbers account for inventory movements and other one-off items. **Includes special dividend from DESFA proceeds.

Lower oil prices benefited Q120 benchmark margins

Hellenic reported positive results in Q120 despite current market conditions. The company benefited from lower oil prices from late January to mid-March. However, the impact of COVID-19 on oil products demand has only become visible in the second half of March. Q120 production was 8% higher than Q119 and adjusted EBITDA increased 4% to €128m. We expect margins to remain under pressure in Q220 and Q320, as lockdown measures are slowly easing but are still in place in several European countries, especially when comparing benchmark margins to corresponding periods in 2019 that observed a strong tourist season.

Aspropyrgos refinery turnaround planned for H220

The increase in the availability of the Elefsina and Thessaloniki refineries resulted in higher refining system production. The system now operates with a more diverse crude slate and Aspropyrgos operates under an IMO model, with the high sulphur fuel oil yield dropping to 4% in the quarter. The Aspropyrgos turnaround is still planned for September 2020; however, the company is reviewing its business plans. Hellenic estimates that the Kozani 204MW photovoltaic project transaction will be closed in Q420 and is targeting commercial operations to start in Q122.

Valuation: Blended valuation at €7.00/share

Our valuation is based on a blend of DCF, EV/EBITDA and P/E valuation approaches. Hellenic currently trades at a premium to European peers at 6.9x FY21e EV/EBITDA, versus the sector average of 4.3x, and 9.6x FY21e P/E compared to the European sector average of 8.2x. Our blended valuation falls 5% to €7.00/share (previously €7.33/share) reflecting the expected lower demand for oil products in the next three to six months and lower realised margins.

Positive results due to improved performance

Hellenic reported positive results in Q120 against the backdrop of lower global oil prices. However, the impact of COVID-19 on oil products demand was only observed in the last 15 to 20 days of the quarter. Production was 8% higher than in Q119 with exports absorbing the additional output. This resulted in an improved reported adjusted EBITDA of €128m (reported EBITDA loss of €416m adjusted for inventory revaluation and other non-operating items), 4% higher than the corresponding quarter of 2019, with reported adjusted net income of €44m, 18% higher than Q119. The IFRS net loss of €341m was affected by €540m of inventory revaluation losses due to the decrease in oil prices. The company reported net debt of €1.91bn compared to net debt of €1.5bn at end FY19.

COVID-19 led to a significant slowdown in economic activity with the EIA estimating global demand for liquid fuels dropping by c 20% in Q220 versus Q419; the oil producers’ response of cutting c 10mmbod since early April 2020 was not enough to ease pressure on oil markets. OPEC and allied nations recently extended the oil output cut until the end of July 2020. Fixed and floating storage capacity stretched to cover supply surplus with excess supply putting pressure on margins and eventually leading to refinery closures in Q220. Hellenic’s domestic marketing activity has been affected by Greece’s lockdown, in place since 23 March 2020, with domestic market demand down 4% for fuels and 18% for aviation and bunker fuel in Q120. The Greek auto-fuels market was down c 40% during the lockdown period with the main impact on the market expected to be observed in Q220. There has been a gradual lifting of restrictions since 4 May 2020 and the company has seen a partial recovery in the market.

Exhibit 1: Domestic market fuel demand (MT 000s)

Exhibit 2: Aviation and bunkers fuel demand (MT 000s)

Source: Hellenic Petroleum. Note: MOGAS = motor gasoline, HGO, HGO = heating gasoil.

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

Exhibit 1: Domestic market fuel demand (MT 000s)

Source: Hellenic Petroleum. Note: MOGAS = motor gasoline, HGO, HGO = heating gasoil.

Exhibit 2: Aviation and bunkers fuel demand (MT 000s)

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

The Aspropyrgos refinery turnaround is still planned for September 2020; however, Hellenic is reviewing its business plans to make sure it can adapt where necessary in the short and medium term in response to current market conditions.

Elefsina: Higher utilisation post successful Q419 turnaround

Hellenic’s Q120 production was mostly driven by the increased availability of the Elefsina and Thessaloniki refineries where the company did not have maintenance issues as was the case in Q119. The refining system is now operating with a more diverse crude slate, with new crudes such as Azeri, Algerian and US crudes accounting for more than 20% of the mix. Also, the high sulphur fuel oil yield dropped to 4% as a result of the new International Maritime Organisation (IMO) compliant operating model at Aspropyrgos. Hellenic has the capacity to adjust the batch-run operation at the refinery in accordance with market conditions reflecting the refinery’s flexibility.

Renewables strategy to improve carbon footprint

Hellenic reiterated that renewables are a key pillar in the company’s strategy for improving its carbon footprint and meeting the announced footprint reduction target of 50% by 2030. Management is keen on the earnings stability of the business and its low market risk and diversification from Hellenic’s core business.

Some COVID-19-related delays are expected to the development of the Kozani 204MW photovoltaic project. Management expects the transaction will be closed in Q420 and is targeting commercial operations to start in Q122. In the meantime, management is in the process of selecting the optimal technical solutions and project configuration for the development and is working on finalising the permitting process.

Financials

Key changes to our financial estimates and market expectations include weaker global demand for oil products during the year, due to COVID-19, despite a relatively strong Q120. As a consequence, we have lowered our refining margin estimates to reflect benchmark margins in April and May 2020: Aspropyrgos benchmark margins averaged $4.5/bbl in April and -$1.1/bbl in May (versus $5.8/bbl in March), Thessaloniki averaged $5.5/bbl in April and -$1.8/bbl in May (versus $4.7/bbl in March) and Elefsina averaged $4.4bbl in April and -$1.6/bbl in May (versus $7.2/bbl in March). We expect margins to remain under pressure for at least the next three to six months with subsequent improvements in Q420 as the global economy recovers from the coronavirus and oil prices potentially remain at relatively subdued levels. All in all, our FY20e total EBITDA is 19% lower compared to our previous estimate.

Exhibit 3: Changes to Edison forecasts

€m

Actual

Edison new

Edison old

Difference (%)

FY19

FY20e

FY21e

FY20e

FY21e

FY20e

FY21e

Adjusted EBITDA, refining

346

299

398

425

484

-30%

-18%

Adjusted EBITDA, petrochemicals

93

69

80

44

77

57%

4%

Adjusted EBITDA, marketing

138

128

138

139

138

-8%

0%

Other

(14)

(10)

(8)

(8)

(8)

25%

0%

Total adjusted EBITDA

570

484

608

600

691

-19%

-12%

Associates

18

46

10

10

10

Adjusted EBIT

339

238

362

366

457

-35%

-21%

Finance costs

(151)

(105)

(97)

(91)

(81)

Adjusted net income

167

136

206

214

290

-37%

-29%

Source: Hellenic Petroleum data, Edison Investment Research

Our FY20 EBITDA estimate is 1% ahead of consensus and our FY21 EBITDA estimate is 5% below consensus. At the same time, our FY20 net income estimate is somewhat below consensus.

Exhibit 4: Edison forecasts versus consensus

€m

Actual

Edison

Consensus

Difference (%)

FY19

FY20e

FY21e

FY20e

FY21e

FY20e

FY21e

Adjusted EBITDA, refining

346

299

398

Adjusted EBITDA, petrochemicals

93

69

80

Adjusted EBITDA, marketing

138

128

138

Other

(14)

(10)

(8)

Total adjusted EBITDA

570

484

608

480

641

1%

-5%

Associates

18

46

10

Adjusted EBIT

339

238

362

240

404

-1%

-10%

Finance costs

(151)

(105)

(97)

Adjusted net income

167

136

206

210

236

-35%

-13%

Source: Hellenic Petroleum data, Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg, Refinitiv estimates as at 9 June 2020

Valuation

We value Hellenic using a blend of DCF, leveraged and unleveraged EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples arriving at a valuation of €7.00/share, down from our last published estimate of €7.33/share, driven by lower earnings estimates on the back of the anticipated reduction in oil products demand in 2020. Changes to our forecasts are shown in Exhibit 3 above.

Our peer-based valuation of Hellenic is now based on FY21 multiples instead of FY20. As can be seen in Exhibit 6, due to the near-term market and commodity price volatility as well as the increased uncertainty in earnings estimates for FY20, peers’ multiples exhibit high deviations from mean levels. FY21 should see a gradual normalisation in fundamentals and improved visibility both in terms of commodity pricing and earnings estimates. Hellenic trades on FY21e multiples of 6.9x EV/EBITDA and 9.6x P/E compared to the European group averages of 4.3x and 8.2x, respectively. Hellenic’s FCF yield is higher than the peer group average at 19.7% in FY21e and its EV per complexity adjusted barrel is lower than the peers at $1,183/bbld. The company trades at a discount to the US peers on the majority of valuation metrics.

Our DCF valuation is based on discounted cash flows to 2025, using an unchanged 7% cost of capital. We incorporate a terminal value, which assumes the unwinding of working capital and a negative 1% terminal growth. The DCF reflects lower refining margins in the first half of 2020 when compared to 2019 and an anticipated pick-up in the second half of the year as the global economy recovers and lower oil prices persist. This results in a DCF valuation of €8.02/share versus our previous valuation of €9.40/share.

Exhibit 5: Hellenic valuation

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: Price as at 9 June 2020.

Exhibit 6: Peer group valuation table

Market cap
($m)

EV
($m)

P/E FY20e
(x)

P/E FY21e
(x)

EV/EBITDA FY20e
(x)

EV/EBITDA FY21e
(x)

FCF yield FY20e
(%)

FCF yield FY21e
(%)

P/CF FY20e
(x)

P/CF FY21e
(x)

Net debt/
EBITDA FY20e
(x)

Dividend yield FY20e
(x)

Refining capacity
(kbod)

EV/bbld of complexity
adjusted capacity
($/kbod)

Hellenic Petroleum (Edison estimates)

2,188*

4,666*

14.6

9.6

8.7

6.9

-1.6%

19.7%

18.2

3.2

4.1

7.7%

344

1,183

Europe

3,159

4,557

49.6

8.2

6.8

4.3

-6.2%

10.1%

7.2

3.8

1.6

5.0%

385

940

Grupa Lotos

3,054

3,846

131.1

8.8

10.3

4.7

9.9%

10.8%

6.7

5.5

2.0

2.8%

211

1,500

Hellenic Petroleum (consensus estimates)

2,250

4,631

13.3

6.6

7.8

5.8

-5.0%

17.9%

5.9

5.3

3.6

5.4%

344

1,183

Motor Oil Hellas Corinth Refineries

1,875

2,881

15.2

7.9

6.3

4.3

-0.2%

7.0%

1.9

1.8

1.1

6.2%

185

834

Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN

7,600

9,587

10.4

6.4

4.1

3.4

-11.3%

0.3%

4.6

3.6

0.7

2.7%

707

1,094

Saras

908

1,262

49.4

11.4

3.1

2.4

-25.7%

16.1%

15.0

2.9

(0.2)

5.1%

300

210

Tupras Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri

3,265

5,137

78.3

8.1

9.1

5.1

-4.8%

8.8%

9.0

3.6

2.5

8.1%

564

819

US

24,032

40,999

(18.7)

16.6

14.6

6.9

0.0%

10.4%

15.1

6.2

4.0

5.9%

2,123

1,260

CVR Energy

2,447

3,641

(38.0)

15.7

12.4

5.5

1.3%

18.2%

19.8

5.8

2.5

8.2%

185

1,030

Marathon Petroleum

26,336

66,942

(19.9)

18.2

10.7

6.6

-0.1%

12.1%

9.3

4.2

5.7

5.7%

3,021

1,695

Phillips 66

37,711

51,720

38.3

13.7

15.5

7.9

-0.7%

5.2%

12.5

7.6

3.6

4.2%

2,184

1,531

Valero Energy

29,636

41,694

(55.2)

18.7

19.9

7.5

-0.5%

6.0%

18.9

7.2

4.4

5.4%

3,100

783

Average

10,661

17,819

21.6

11.4

9.8

5.5

-3.5%

11.1%

11.1

4.6

2.7

5.6%

1,013

1,078

Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg, Refinitiv estimates. Note: Prices at 9 June 2020. *FX = US$1.11/€.

Exhibit 7: Financial summary

IFRS, year-end 31 December

€m

 

2017

2018

2019

2020e

2021e

INCOME STATEMENT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

 

7,995

9,769

8,857

8,318

8,393

Cost of sales

 

 

(6,907)

(8,770)

(8,052)

(8,167)

(7,574)

Gross profit

 

 

1,087

999

805

151

819

SG&A (expenses)

 

 

(410)

(475)

(470)

(469)

(470)

Other income/(expense)

 

 

(16)

(10)

6

14

13

Exceptionals and adjustments

 

 

18

(19)

2

(540)

0

Reported EBIT

 

 

662

514

341

(306)

362

Finance income/(expense)

 

 

(165)

(146)

(151)

(105)

(97)

Profit (loss) from JVs / associates (post tax)

 

 

31

(2)

18

46

10

Other income (includes exceptionals)

 

 

(8)

2

(1)

2

0

Reported PBT

 

 

520

369

207

(363)

275

Income tax expense (includes exceptionals)

 

 

(136)

(154)

(43)

96

(69)

Reported net income

 

 

384

215

164

(267)

206

Basic average number of shares, m

 

 

306

306

306

306

306

Basic EPS (€)

 

 

1.3

0.7

0.5

(0.9)

0.7

 

 

 

Adjusted EBITDA

 

 

833

730

570

484

608

Adjusted EBIT

 

 

644

533

339

238

362

Adjusted PBT

 

 

502

388

205

181

275

Adjusted net income

 

 

371

291

167

136

206

Adjusted EPS (€)

 

 

1.21

0.95

0.55

0.44

0.67

DPS (€)

 

 

0.40

0.75

0.50

0.50

0.50

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

Property, plant and equipment

 

 

3,312

3,269

3,298

3,201

3,175

Intangible assets

 

 

106

106

104

105

105

Other non-current assets

 

 

864

529

744

778

785

Total non-current assets

 

 

4,282

3,903

4,146

4,083

4,065

Cash and equivalents

 

 

1,019

1,276

1,088

594

211

Inventories

 

 

1,056

993

1,013

680

889

Trade and other receivables

 

 

791

822

840

739

771

Other current assets

 

 

12

3

6

2

2

Total current assets

 

 

2,878

3,094

2,947

2,015

1,873

Non-current loans and borrowings

 

 

920

1,627

1,610

1,081

631

Other non-current liabilities

 

 

300

420

617

492

492

Total non-current liabilities

 

 

1,220

2,047

2,227

1,573

1,123

Trade and other payables

 

 

1,661

1,349

1,402

1,160

1,472

Current loans and borrowings

 

 

1,900

1,109

1,022

1,497

1,497

Other current liabilities

 

 

7

97

115

67

67

Total current liabilities

 

 

3,568

2,555

2,539

2,724

3,037

Equity attributable to company

 

 

2,309

2,331

2,262

1,737

1,714

Non-controlling interest

 

 

63

64

65

64

64

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

 

 

Profit before tax

 

 

520

369

207

(366)

275

Depreciation and amortisation

 

 

189

197

231

246

246

Other adjustments

 

 

207

237

172

72

87

Movements in working capital

 

 

(463)

(296)

26

183

72

Income taxes paid

 

 

(10)

(5)

(149)

(27)

(69)

Cash from operations (CFO)

 

 

443

503

486

109

611

Capex

 

 

(209)

(157)

(241)

(141)

(220)

Acquisitions & disposals net

 

 

0

(16)

(5)

1

0

Other investing activities

 

 

24

311

29

6

5

Cash used in investing activities (CFIA)

 

 

(185)

138

(218)

(134)

(215)

Net proceeds from issue of shares

 

 

0

(1)

0

0

0

Dividends paid in period

 

 

(107)

(151)

(155)

(305)

(229)

Movements in debt

 

 

(35)

(97)

(111)

(60)

(450)

Other financing activities

 

 

(149)

4

(160)

(110)

(100)

Cash from financing activities (CFF)

 

 

(300)

(244)

(458)

(476)

(779)

Increase/(decrease) in cash and equivalents

 

 

(42)

397

(189)

(501)

(383)

Currency translation differences and other

 

 

(9)

5

2

7

0

Cash and equivalents at end of period

 

 

873

1,275

1,088

594

211

Net (debt)/cash

 

 

(1,802)

(1,460)

(1,544)

(1,984)

(1,917)

Source: Hellenic Petroleum, Edison Investment Research


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This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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This report has been commissioned by Hellenic Petroleum and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Hellenic Petroleum. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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