PharmaMar
Written by
PharmaMar |
ADMYRE results keenly awaited |
FY15 results |
Pharma & biotech |
10 March 2016 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
PharmaMar is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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PharmaMar’s increasing investment in its promising oncology pipeline is supported by growing Yondelis revenue that will be further buoyed by recent approvals in the US, Japan and elsewhere, as well as by refinancing of its short-term debt. Phase III data for Aplidin in multiple myeloma, expected later this month, could be a significant catalyst for the stock. Our valuation is unchanged at €1.07bn or €4.82 per share ahead of this.
Year end |
Revenue (€m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/14 |
149.7 |
16.3 |
6.77 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
N/A |
12/15 |
162.0 |
6.5 |
3.24 |
0.0 |
0.7 |
N/A |
12/16e |
177.1 |
(3.1) |
(2.12) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/17e |
195.6 |
24.3 |
10.14 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation, exceptional items.
Aplidin: ADMYRE Phase III results due this month
The 255-patient ADMYRE Phase III trial of Aplidin in relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma is expected to read out later this month. An interim analysis (79 patients) in December 2012 showed that, at that stage, Aplidin was on track to meet the efficacy target of a 60% improvement in PFS, so the final results are keenly awaited. If the results are positive, we expect filing for approval in Q416.
Pipeline development continues apace
A Phase III trial of PM1183 in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer is expected to complete recruitment this year, and a Phase III trial of the drug in small cell lung cancer is expected to commence mid-year, following an impressive 67% response rate in earlier trials. A Phase II trial of the microtubule inhibitor PM184 in 106 patients with breast cancer was initiated in February 2016.
Robust financial position to fund pipeline
FY15 group net sales increased 10% to €162m, of which Yondelis’s commercial sales rose 8% to €80.7m. EBITDA was down by 25% to €19.3m due to a significant increase in oncology R&D expense (+23% to €55.6m). The issue of €17m of non-convertible bonds in July 2015 has allowed PharmaMar to reduce short-term debt from €44.5m at end 2014 to €28.6m at end 2015. The company ended 2015 with €26.8m of undrawn credit lines plus €45.6m of cash and financial assets. This puts it in a robust financial position to fund its clinical trial programme, regardless of whether the mooted US IPO proceeds this year.
Valuation: Unchanged at €4.82 per share
Our valuation is unchanged at €1.07bn or €4.82/share, with the increased forecast marketing and R&D spend in FY16-17 offset by the roll forward of the DCF model. We lower our near-term EBITDA forecasts for FY16-FY17 by 63% and 36% respectively due to higher marketing and R&D expenses. However, longer-term prospects remain solid and we see significant potential upside from the Yondelis market launches in the US and Japan, and from Aplidin data later this month.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
€'000s |
2014 |
2015 |
2016e |
2017e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
149,652 |
161,992 |
177,100 |
195,587 |
Cost of Sales |
(40,765) |
(45,705) |
(44,849) |
(46,593) |
||
Gross Profit |
108,887 |
116,287 |
132,250 |
148,994 |
||
R&D Expenses (gross) |
(52,456) |
(63,549) |
(68,789) |
(71,639) |
||
Capitalised in-house R&D |
5,979 |
3,258 |
4,270 |
4,480 |
||
Sales, General and Administrative Expenses |
(61,177) |
(68,528) |
(70,769) |
(73,775) |
||
Other (milestones and royalties) |
28,408 |
31,825 |
12,293 |
27,714 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
25,704 |
19,329 |
8,643 |
35,156 |
Operating Profit (before GW and except.) |
22,096 |
11,852 |
1,293 |
28,720 |
||
Depreciation |
(3,608) |
(7,477) |
(7,350) |
(6,436) |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
(1,859) |
(523) |
(2,146) |
(1,975) |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
20,237 |
11,329 |
(854) |
26,745 |
||
Net Interest |
(5,762) |
(5,327) |
(4,416) |
(4,446) |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
16,334 |
6,525 |
(3,123) |
24,273 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
14,475 |
6,002 |
(5,269) |
22,299 |
Tax |
(1,304) |
654 |
(1,594) |
(1,760) |
||
Deferred tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
15,030 |
7,179 |
(4,717) |
22,513 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
13,171 |
6,656 |
(6,863) |
20,538 |
||
Minority interests |
20 |
25 |
0 |
0 |
||
Discontinued operations |
(76) |
0 |
0 |
(48) |
||
Net income (normalised) |
|
|
15,050 |
7,204 |
(4,717) |
22,513 |
Net income (FRS3) |
|
|
13,115 |
6,681 |
(6,863) |
20,490 |
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
222.2 |
222.2 |
222.2 |
222.2 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
6.8 |
3.2 |
(2.1) |
10.1 |
EPS - FRS 3 (c) |
|
|
0.06 |
0.03 |
(0.03) |
0.09 |
Dividend per share (c) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
72.8% |
71.8% |
74.7% |
76.2% |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
17.2% |
11.9% |
4.9% |
18.0% |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
14.8% |
7.3% |
0.7% |
14.7% |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
99,473 |
99,804 |
93,850 |
89,351 |
Intangible Assets |
28,836 |
29,377 |
27,231 |
25,256 |
||
Tangible Assets |
29,218 |
30,624 |
26,816 |
24,292 |
||
Other |
41,419 |
39,803 |
39,803 |
39,803 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
101,916 |
112,135 |
111,062 |
137,274 |
Stocks |
24,404 |
22,990 |
24,575 |
25,530 |
||
Debtors |
36,989 |
40,200 |
43,668 |
48,227 |
||
Cash and current financial assets |
35,511 |
45,625 |
39,498 |
60,196 |
||
Other |
5,012 |
3,320 |
3,320 |
3,320 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(82,626) |
(61,203) |
(60,786) |
(61,653) |
Creditors |
(38,160) |
(32,574) |
(32,157) |
(33,024) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(44,466) |
(28,629) |
(28,629) |
(28,629) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(58,694) |
(68,280) |
(68,533) |
(68,842) |
Long term borrowings |
(47,003) |
(64,973) |
(64,973) |
(64,973) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(11,691) |
(3,307) |
(3,560) |
(3,869) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
60,069 |
82,456 |
75,592 |
96,131 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
23,475 |
10,195 |
3,425 |
30,817 |
Net Interest |
(1,000) |
252 |
(4,416) |
(4,446) |
||
Tax |
(366) |
654 |
(1,594) |
(1,760) |
||
Capex |
(10,179) |
(9,221) |
(3,542) |
(3,912) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
(2,905) |
6,169 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
9,029 |
8,049 |
(6,127) |
20,698 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
64,585 |
54,886 |
46,910 |
53,037 |
Exchange rate movements |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
669 |
(73) |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
54,886 |
46,910 |
53,037 |
32,339 |
Source: Edison Investment Research; PharmaMar accounts
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Research: Investment Companies
Securities Trust of Scotland