Regional REIT — Performing as expected ahead of refinancing

Regional REIT (LSE: RGL)

Last close As at 22/05/2024

GBP0.25

−0.40 (−1.58%)

Market capitalisation

GBP129m

More on this equity

Research: Real Estate

Regional REIT — Performing as expected ahead of refinancing

In a challenging market, Regional REIT’s (RGL’s) FY23 operational and financial performance was robust, in line with expectations and previous guidance. Investor focus remains on the company’s loan to value (LTV) reduction and bond refinancing plans, explored in detail in our previous note and RGL will provide an update on this in due course.

Martyn King

Written by

Martyn King

Director, Financials

Real Estate

Regional REIT

Performing as expected ahead of refinancing

FY23 results

Real estate

9 April 2024

Price

21p

Market cap

£108m

Net debt (£m) at 31 December 2023

386.2

Net LTV at 31 December 2023

55.1%

Shares in issue

515.7m

Free float

88%

Code

RGL

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

Business description

Regional REIT is focused on office assets in the regional centres of the UK, outside the M25, highly diversified by property, tenants and the underlying industry exposure of those tenants. It is actively managed and targets a total shareholder return of at least 10% with a strong focus on income.

Analyst

Martyn King

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Regional REIT is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

In a challenging market, Regional REIT’s (RGL’s) FY23 operational and financial performance was robust, in line with expectations and previous guidance. Investor focus remains on the company’s loan to value (LTV) reduction and bond refinancing plans, explored in detail in our previous note and RGL will provide an update on this in due course.

Year end

Net rental income (£m)

EPRA earnings* (£m)

EPRA EPS*
(p)

NAV**/ share (p)

DPS
(p)

P/NAV
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/22

62.6

34.1

6.6

73.5

6.60

0.29

31.4

12/23

53.7

27.0

5.2

56.4

5.25

0.37

25.0

12/24e

53.5

25.0

4.8

56.4

4.80

0.37

22.9

Note: *EPRA earnings exclude revaluation movements, gains/losses on disposal and other non-recurring items. EPRA EPS is fully diluted. **NAV is EPRA net tangible assets per share.

FY23 DPS of 5.25p was covered by EPRA earnings. H223 DPS was 2.4p, following the Q223 rebasing, and FY24 DPS will partly depend on RGL’s chosen re-financing route. The Q124 DPS will be declared in May. Despite occupiers continuing to take a ‘wait and see’ approach to lease commitments, new lettings added £3.8m pa to rent roll, at a 7.1% premium to estimated rental value (ERV). However, with lease expiries of c £14m coming into FY23, contracted rent roll reduced by almost £3m, net of disposals, to £67.8m. There is very significant reversionary income potential in the portfolio, reflected in an occupancy rate of 80.0% and net equivalent yield of 9.9% compared with a net initial yield (NIY) of 6.2%. Rents have continued to modestly increase. RGL’s comprehensive in-house survey, conducted with its c 1,000 tenants, indicates a continuing return to the office and a level of utilisation of occupied space that is slightly above pre-pandemic levels. The portfolio sustainability metrics showed a strong improvement in the year and the proportion of the portfolio rated EPC C or better (a 2027 minimum regulatory requirement) is now 73%, up from 57% a year earlier. RGL is confident of meeting EPC targets through a combination of its rolling capex programmes, aligned with leasing events, and the disposal of remaining EPC D and E rated properties.

The like-for-like portfolio valuation decline of 9.3% was a stronger performance than that reflected in the 17.4% decline in the MSCI Rest of UK Office Index, benefiting from asset management initiatives. However, including the impact of gearing, and a c 2.5p/share reduction from an accounting change in respect of lease incentives, NAV per share was 23% lower at 56.4p (FY22: 73.5p) and LTV increased to 55.1% (49.5%), despite asset sales and debt reduction. As part of the company’s asset disposal programme aimed at reducing the LTV towards the target 40%, and enhancing portfolio quality, £25.0m (net of costs) of assets were sold in FY23 with the low NIY reflecting a high share of vacant properties. Since then, aggregate sales of £13.4m (before costs) have completed, in line with end-FY23 valuation. A further £130m of assets are identified for possible sale, including more than £20m at an advanced stage, but in current market conditions we expect only around half to complete this year. Explored in detail in our previous note, that would be insufficient to repay the £50m 4.5% unsecured bond that matures in August while maintaining collateral cover on secured borrowings. RGL is exploring the options for both the debt and equity refinancing of the bond, and ahead of this, there is no change to our EPRA earnings or DPS forecasts although we have reflected the accounting change in NAV.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Regional REIT and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Regional REIT. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Regional REIT and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Regional REIT. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

More on Regional REIT

View All

Latest from the Real Estate sector

View All Real Estate content

Research: Investment Companies

Premier Miton Global Renewables Trust — Deep dive on developers

The energy developers segment of Premier Miton Global Renewables Trust’s (PMGR’s) holdings accounts for 30.2% of its portfolio (at 29 February 2024). These developers can generate significantly higher returns than other sections of the portfolio (eg yield plays and investment trusts) due to higher initial capital investment and development risk. PMGR’s portfolio remains a diversified approach to renewable energy asset investing, with a mix across technologies, geographies and corporate structures. Asset values in renewables have been under some pressure of late due to rising bond yields and, in some sectors, falling forward power price curves, though these are two trends that have arguably run their course.

Continue Reading

Subscribe to Edison

Get access to the very latest content matched to your personal investment style.

Sign up for free