Stride’s AGM trading update confirmed the continued momentum in its core real money gaming (RMG) vertical. The Aspers Casino partnership has had an encouraging start and Stride is well positioned to keep gaining market share. Its key differentiating factor is the high-performing proprietary platform and we expect underlying margin expansion as customers migrate from acquired businesses. We believe that visibility into the social gaming vertical (5% of revenues) remains limited and we have lowered our future revenue forecasts by c £2m per year. Our profit forecasts are unchanged. At 7.4x EV/EBITDA and 10.8x P/E for CY18, Stride trades at a meaningful discount to peers.
Written by
Stride Gaming |
On track for underlying margin expansion |
AGM trading update |
Travel & leisure |
1 February 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Stride Gaming is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Stride’s AGM trading update confirmed the continued momentum in its core real money gaming (RMG) vertical. The Aspers Casino partnership has had an encouraging start and Stride is well positioned to keep gaining market share. Its key differentiating factor is the high-performing proprietary platform and we expect underlying margin expansion as customers migrate from acquired businesses. We believe that visibility into the social gaming vertical (5% of revenues) remains limited and we have lowered our future revenue forecasts by c £2m per year. Our profit forecasts are unchanged. At 7.4x EV/EBITDA and 10.8x P/E for CY18, Stride trades at a meaningful discount to peers.
Year |
Revenue (£m) |
EBITDA* |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
08/16 |
47.8 |
12.3 |
11.3 |
20.3 |
2.5 |
11.4 |
1.1 |
08/17 |
89.9 |
20.2 |
18.9 |
25.8 |
2.7 |
9.0 |
1.2 |
08/18e |
98.6 |
19.2 |
17.0 |
20.2 |
3.0 |
11.4 |
1.3 |
08/19e |
110.3 |
23.0 |
20.3 |
23.9 |
3.5 |
9.7 |
1.5 |
08/20e |
119.2 |
25.7 |
22.9 |
27.0 |
4.0 |
8.6 |
1.7 |
Note: *Normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. EPS is fully diluted.
RMG (95% of revenues) continues to gain traction
Stride is the UK’s third largest online bingo operator and the core RMG division is performing robustly. The acquired 8Ball and Tarco businesses are now fully integrated post their earnout periods and we anticipate further synergies as customers steadily migrate to Stride’s proprietary platform. The company is well placed to manage regulatory changes, such as social responsibility and self-exclusion, and should continue gaining market share.
EBITDA forecasts unchanged: Possible upside ahead
We have lowered our social gaming revenues by c £2m per annum to reflect the limited visibility, but our EBITDA forecasts remain unchanged. Indeed, Stride’s investment into products is now in the final stages and we believe there could be margin upside to our estimates if Stride’s target synergies are achieved. In addition, we are encouraged by the progress with the Aspers Casino partnership, which will feed into RMG EBITDA from this year. We introduce FY20 estimates, which assume an 8% growth in RMG revenues and a group EBITDA margin of 21.6%.
Valuation: 7.4x EV/EBITDA, 10.8x P/E for CY18
Stride is fully regulated, successfully increasing market share, growing well ahead of the sector average and generating cash, with a progressive dividend policy. However, its 7.4x EV/EBITDA and 10.8x P/E for CY18 remain below the peer group averages of 9.3x and 13.3x. Now that the earnout periods for 8Ball and Tarco have ended, we would expect to see continued integration momentum, which should lead to a progressive closing of the valuation discount.
AGM trading update
Third largest online bingo operator, gaining market share
Stride is the UK’s third largest online bingo operator and the AGM trading update confirmed that the core RMG division is performing robustly. The acquired 8Ball and Tarco businesses are now out of earnout period and we anticipate further synergies, as customers steadily migrate to Stride’s proprietary platform. We are encouraged by progress with the Aspers Casino partnership, which will feed into EBITDA this year. Stride is well positioned to manage ongoing regulatory changes, such as social responsibility and self-exclusion, and we believe the company will continue gaining market share.
Profit estimates unchanged, introducing FY20 figures
Our core RMG estimates remain unchanged, with the point of consumption tax (POCT) already in our numbers. As highlighted last year, there is limited visibility regarding the prospects of the social gaming division (5% of revenues) and we have prudently lowered our revenue forecasts by c £2m per annum. However, with less associated social marketing costs, our social gaming EBITDA remains unchanged.
We also introduce FY20 figures, where we estimate revenues growing 8% to £119.2m, with an EBITDA margin of 21.6%.
Investment into platform could lead to additional margin upside
Investment into the product and proprietary platform is now in the final stages and, as detailed at Stride’s FY17 results presentation, the company has ambitious plans to increase yields, as well as lower distribution costs across the acquired businesses. These targets are not fully reflected in our estimates and there could therefore be margin upside to our figures if the company’s goals are achieved. Please see our November update for more information.
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Exhibit 1: Analysis of distribution costs (% of revenue) and yield per player |
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Source: Stride Gaming November 2017 Investor Presentation |
Exhibit 2: Stride Gaming divisional forecasts
£m |
FY15 |
FY16 |
FY17 |
FY18e |
FY19e |
FY20e |
Real money gaming (RMG) |
26.7 |
35.0 |
81.8 |
93.6 |
104.5 |
112.9 |
Social gaming |
1.1 |
12.8 |
8.1 |
5.0 |
5.8 |
6.3 |
Net gaming revenue (NGR) |
27.8 |
47.8 |
89.9 |
98.6 |
110.3 |
119.2 |
COS (POC gaming tax) |
(2.8) |
(5.4) |
(11.6) |
(16.8) |
(19.3) |
(20.9) |
% of RMG NGR |
10.3% |
15.4% |
14.2% |
18.0% |
18.5% |
18.5% |
Gross profit |
25.1 |
42.4 |
78.3 |
81.7 |
90.9 |
98.3 |
Marketing cost |
(7.0) |
(10.9) |
(22.6) |
(24.2) |
(27.0) |
(29.2) |
Marketing % of revenue |
25.2% |
22.8% |
25.1% |
24.5% |
24.5% |
24.5% |
Other distribution costs |
(2.9) |
(7.8) |
(16.0) |
(17.1) |
(18.9) |
(19.9) |
Other distribution % of revenue |
10.4% |
16.2% |
17.8% |
17.3% |
17.1% |
16.7% |
Admin costs |
(7.8) |
(11.4) |
(19.4) |
(21.3) |
(22.0) |
(23.6) |
Admin % of revenue |
28.2% |
23.9% |
21.6% |
21.6% |
19.9% |
19.8% |
Adjusted EBITDA |
7.3 |
12.3 |
20.2 |
19.2 |
23.0 |
25.7 |
RMG EBITDA |
7.0 |
8.2 |
19.7 |
18.6 |
22.0 |
24.5 |
Social gaming EBITDA |
0.3 |
4.1 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
Adjusted EBITDA margin |
26.3% |
25.8% |
22.5% |
19.5% |
20.9% |
21.6% |
RMG EBITDA margin % |
26.4% |
23.5% |
24.0% |
19.9% |
21.0% |
21.7% |
Social gaming EBITDA margin % |
24.3% |
32.0% |
7.1% |
12.0% |
19.0% |
19.0% |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
£m |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
2020e |
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August |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
27.8 |
47.8 |
89.9 |
98.6 |
110.3 |
119.2 |
Cost of Sales |
(2.8) |
(5.4) |
(11.6) |
(16.8) |
(19.3) |
(20.9) |
||
Gross Profit |
25.1 |
42.4 |
78.3 |
81.7 |
90.9 |
98.3 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
7.3 |
12.3 |
20.2 |
19.2 |
23.0 |
25.7 |
Operating Profit (norm) |
|
|
7.3 |
12.0 |
19.4 |
17.5 |
20.8 |
23.4 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(2.5) |
(4.2) |
(7.8) |
(7.8) |
(7.8) |
(7.8) |
||
Exceptionals |
(3.3) |
(5.1) |
(36.1) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Share based payments |
(1.0) |
(1.9) |
(1.8) |
(1.8) |
(1.8) |
(1.8) |
||
Operating Profit |
0.4 |
0.8 |
(26.2) |
7.9 |
11.2 |
13.9 |
||
Net Interest |
(0.1) |
(0.7) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
7.2 |
11.3 |
18.9 |
17.0 |
20.3 |
22.9 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
0.4 |
0.1 |
(26.7) |
7.4 |
10.7 |
13.4 |
Tax (reported) |
0.1 |
(0.5) |
1.1 |
(0.7) |
(0.8) |
(0.9) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
6.2 |
10.9 |
18.2 |
16.3 |
19.5 |
22.0 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
0.4 |
(0.4) |
(25.6) |
6.7 |
9.9 |
12.5 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
43.8 |
51.5 |
67.3 |
74.5 |
76.0 |
76.0 |
||
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
14.2 |
21.2 |
27.1 |
21.9 |
25.6 |
29.0 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) |
|
|
14.0 |
20.3 |
25.8 |
20.2 |
23.9 |
27.0 |
EPS - (IFRS) (p) |
|
|
0.9 |
(0.8) |
(38.1) |
9.0 |
13.1 |
16.4 |
Dividend per share (p) |
0.00 |
2.50 |
2.70 |
3.00 |
3.50 |
4.00 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
90.1 |
88.7 |
87.1 |
82.9 |
82.5 |
82.5 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
26.3 |
25.8 |
22.5 |
19.5 |
20.9 |
21.6 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
26.1 |
25.0 |
21.6 |
17.7 |
18.8 |
19.7 |
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BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
37.1 |
78.7 |
61.1 |
53.9 |
46.1 |
38.6 |
Intangible Assets |
36.4 |
73.6 |
57.8 |
50.2 |
42.1 |
34.2 |
||
Tangible Assets |
0.2 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
||
Investments |
0.5 |
4.4 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
11.7 |
27.1 |
36.5 |
33.9 |
49.9 |
66.4 |
Stocks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Debtors |
4.2 |
5.8 |
9.9 |
7.0 |
8.0 |
8.0 |
||
Cash |
7.4 |
21.1 |
26.2 |
26.4 |
41.4 |
57.9 |
||
Other |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
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Current Liabilities |
|
|
(7.7) |
(26.1) |
(35.7) |
(15.8) |
(17.6) |
(17.6) |
Creditors |
(5.2) |
(16.3) |
(31.3) |
(13.3) |
(15.0) |
(15.0) |
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Player balances |
(1.4) |
(1.8) |
(2.4) |
(2.5) |
(2.6) |
(2.6) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(1.1) |
(8.0) |
(2.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(10.2) |
(10.5) |
(7.1) |
(6.5) |
(6.5) |
(6.5) |
Long term borrowings |
(8.0) |
0.0 |
(4.4) |
(4.0) |
(4.0) |
(4.0) |
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Other long term liabilities |
(2.2) |
(10.5) |
(2.6) |
(2.5) |
(2.5) |
(2.5) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
30.8 |
69.2 |
54.9 |
65.4 |
71.9 |
80.8 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
4.6 |
14.4 |
14.3 |
17.3 |
20.7 |
23.1 |
Net Interest |
0.0 |
(0.6) |
(0.6) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
||
Tax |
(0.1) |
(0.7) |
(1.4) |
(0.7) |
(0.8) |
(0.9) |
||
Capex |
(0.6) |
(1.9) |
(2.0) |
(2.3) |
(2.3) |
(2.5) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(18.1) |
(22.2) |
(1.9) |
(26.8) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Financing |
10.4 |
25.9 |
(0.5) |
17.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
(3.0) |
(0.6) |
(1.8) |
(1.9) |
(2.3) |
(2.6) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(6.6) |
14.4 |
6.1 |
2.5 |
14.9 |
16.6 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
0.0 |
3.1 |
(11.3) |
(17.4) |
(19.9) |
(34.8) |
Moving in player balances |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other adjustments |
2.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
3.1 |
(11.3) |
(17.4) |
(19.9) |
(34.8) |
(51.3) |
Source: Stride Gaming accounts, Edison Investment Research
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Research: Consumer
Similar to last year’s trends, Rank reported that total Venues l-f-l revenues declined by 1%, mainly due to lower customer visits. This was offset by a 16% increase in Digital, where Mecca digital has clearly turned the corner. To reflect the lighter result in Venues, we have lowered our FY18 and FY19 revenue estimates by c 2-3%, but improved operational efficiencies mean that our profit forecasts are largely unchanged. The business model remains highly cash generative, with £4m net cash achieved at H118 and the stock’s trading multiples are attractive at 6.8x EV/EBITDA, 13.6x P/E and 8.1% free cash flow yield for CY18.