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Research: Healthcare
Oxford Biomedica (OXB) has announced the expansion of its commercial supply agreement with Novartis by five years. While expected, this removes any uncertainty around the future of the partnership and is a validation of OXB’s investment in new manufacturing facilities. Novartis is now committed to paying OXB a minimum of $75m (for vector batches) in manufacturing revenue over the five-year extension. Additionally, OXB will be paid a mid-single digit £m facility reservation fee. As part of this, OXB will dedicate some of its new 7,800m2 manufacturing facility (OxBox) to Novartis while also ensuring that at least two of its GMP facilities are capable of commercial supply, essentially ensuring a dual-sourced supply if the need arose. We value OXB at £692m vs £673m previously.
Written by
Oxford Biomedica |
Novartis extends commercial supply agreement |
Corporate update |
Pharma & biotech |
19 December 2019 |
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Oxford Biomedica is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Oxford Biomedica (OXB) has announced the expansion of its commercial supply agreement with Novartis by five years. While expected, this removes any uncertainty around the future of the partnership and is a validation of OXB’s investment in new manufacturing facilities. Novartis is now committed to paying OXB a minimum of $75m (for vector batches) in manufacturing revenue over the five-year extension. Additionally, OXB will be paid a mid-single digit £m facility reservation fee. As part of this, OXB will dedicate some of its new 7,800m2 manufacturing facility (OxBox) to Novartis while also ensuring that at least two of its GMP facilities are capable of commercial supply, essentially ensuring a dual-sourced supply if the need arose. We value OXB at £692m vs £673m previously.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/17 |
37.6 |
(13.1) |
(16.7) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/18 |
66.8 |
0.3 |
4.3 |
0.0 |
147.0 |
N/A |
12/19e |
76.9 |
(7.9) |
(7.3) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/20e |
89.8 |
2.9 |
7.4 |
0.0 |
85.4 |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Novartis committed to CAR-T as programmes expand
OXB has announced that it is now working on five different lentiviral vectors for use in Novartis’s CAR-T products. While the targets are undisclosed by OXB, we assume (based on Novartis’s recent R&D day) that these are focused on CD19, BCMA, CD22, IL3RA and EGFRvIII. We note that the $75m minimum revenue announced in the expanded commercial partnership is for vector batches only. As a result, OXB will benefit separately from development revenue for these new assets, which could provide substantial upside to our current assumptions. Kymriah sales have initially been below market expectations (due to a deepening competitive landscape and US manufacturing/specification issues). However, sales continue to demonstrate strong quarter-on-quarter growth (Q319: $79m vs Q219: $58m). Kymriah is now approved for reimbursement in over 20 countries, with more than 160 qualified centres able to offer the treatment, and we expect OXB to benefit from increasing royalty and manufacturing revenue.
Expanded partnership validates OxBox investment
OXB’s new OxBox facility will more than double capacity and is expected to be ready for commercial vector production in H120. The announcement on the extension of the Novartis commercial supply agreement reinforces the need to continue investing in the growth of OXB. As vector manufacturing capacity continues to be constrained globally, companies like OXB are in a strong position to drive value for their platform. Additionally, OXB’s expertise in lentiviral development means it continues to remain extremely attractive to future and existing partners.
Valuation: £692m vs £673m previously
We value OXB at £692m (£9.02/share) vs £673m (£8.77/share) previously. We assume a $7m (c £5.2m) reservation fee will be spread across the five-year contract with no financial impact until 2021. We have also rolled forward our model.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
Accounts: IFRS, year-end: December, £000s |
|
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019e |
2020e |
INCOME STATEMENT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total revenues |
|
27,776 |
37,590 |
66,778 |
76,907 |
89,799 |
Cost of sales |
|
(11,835) |
(18,442) |
(22,763) |
(24,240) |
(26,807) |
Gross profit |
|
15,941 |
19,148 |
44,015 |
52,667 |
62,991 |
Administrative expenses |
|
(5,957) |
(7,276) |
(7,433) |
(10,035) |
(13,547) |
R&D and bioprocessing costs |
|
(24,299) |
(21,611) |
(29,714) |
(44,264) |
(46,532) |
Other income/(expense) |
|
3,002 |
1,774 |
1,064 |
0 |
0 |
Exceptionals and adjustments |
|
0 |
2,297 |
5,983 |
(1,411) |
0 |
Operating profit/(loss) |
|
(11,313) |
(5,668) |
13,915 |
(3,043) |
2,913 |
Finance income/(expense) |
|
(8,994) |
(6,093) |
(8,901) |
(6,238) |
6 |
Reported PBT |
|
(20,307) |
(11,761) |
5,014 |
(9,280) |
2,919 |
Income tax expense (includes exceptionals) |
|
3,666 |
2,744 |
2,527 |
2,653 |
2,786 |
Reported net income |
|
(16,641) |
(9,017) |
7,541 |
(6,627) |
5,705 |
Basic average number of shares, m |
|
56 |
62 |
65 |
71 |
77 |
Basic EPS (p) |
|
(29.9) |
(14.6) |
11.6 |
(9.3) |
7.4 |
Adjusted EBITDA |
|
(6,773) |
(2,645) |
13,535 |
5,333 |
10,868 |
Adjusted EBIT |
|
(10,448) |
(7,020) |
9,178 |
(1,632) |
2,913 |
Adjusted PBT |
|
(19,442) |
(13,113) |
277 |
(7,869) |
2,919 |
Adjusted EPS (p) |
|
(28.4) |
(16.7) |
4.3 |
(7.3) |
7.4 |
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Property, plant and equipment |
|
27,514 |
25,370 |
31,791 |
51,119 |
58,422 |
Intangible assets |
|
1,330 |
97 |
117 |
113 |
109 |
Other non-current assets |
|
657 |
2,954 |
10,966 |
0 |
0 |
Total non-current assets |
|
29,501 |
28,421 |
42,874 |
51,232 |
58,532 |
Cash and equivalents |
|
15,335 |
14,329 |
32,244 |
8,532 |
1,256 |
Inventories |
|
2,202 |
3,332 |
4,251 |
4,527 |
5,006 |
Trade and other receivables |
|
6,904 |
17,088 |
30,585 |
37,927 |
44,284 |
Other current assets |
|
3,000 |
2,232 |
2,446 |
13,619 |
13,752 |
Total current assets |
|
27,441 |
36,981 |
69,526 |
64,605 |
64,298 |
Non-current loans and borrowings |
|
34,389 |
36,864 |
41,153 |
0 |
0 |
Contract liabilities and deferred income |
|
0 |
0 |
6,434 |
6,434 |
6,434 |
Other non-current liabilities |
|
622 |
630 |
1,566 |
9,735 |
9,735 |
Total non-current liabilities |
|
35,011 |
37,494 |
49,153 |
16,169 |
16,169 |
Trade and other payables |
|
6,003 |
8,690 |
11,422 |
12,163 |
13,451 |
Contract liabilities and deferred income |
|
3,313 |
13,072 |
17,084 |
17,084 |
17,084 |
Total current liabilities |
|
9,316 |
21,762 |
28,506 |
29,247 |
30,535 |
Equity attributable to company |
|
12,615 |
6,146 |
34,741 |
70,420 |
76,125 |
CASH FLOW STATEMENT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating profit/(loss) |
|
(11,313) |
(5,668) |
13,915 |
(3,043) |
2,913 |
Depreciation and amortisation |
|
3,675 |
4,375 |
4,357 |
6,964 |
7,955 |
Share based payments |
|
865 |
945 |
1,246 |
0 |
0 |
Other adjustments |
|
(579) |
(1,326) |
(8,012) |
0 |
0 |
Movements in working capital |
|
1,423 |
141 |
(2,292) |
(6,876) |
(5,549) |
Income taxes paid |
|
4,081 |
4,512 |
3,654 |
2,446 |
2,653 |
Cash from operations (CFO) |
|
(1,848) |
2,979 |
12,868 |
(509) |
7,973 |
Capex |
|
(6,458) |
(1,969) |
(10,148) |
(26,288) |
(15,255) |
Other investing activities |
|
47 |
38 |
52 |
43 |
6 |
Cash used in investing activities (CFIA) |
|
(6,411) |
(1,931) |
(10,096) |
(26,245) |
(15,249) |
Net proceeds from issue of shares |
|
17,497 |
385 |
19,808 |
50,475 |
0 |
Movements in debt |
|
0 |
8,361 |
0 |
(41,153) |
0 |
Interest paid |
|
(3,258) |
(10,800) |
(4,665) |
(6,280) |
0 |
Other financing activities |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Cash from financing activities (CFF) |
|
14,239 |
(2,054) |
15,143 |
3,042 |
0 |
Increase/(decrease) in cash and equivalents |
|
5,980 |
(1,006) |
17,915 |
(23,712) |
(7,276) |
Currency translation differences and other |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Cash and equivalents at beginning of period |
|
9,355 |
15,335 |
14,329 |
32,244 |
8,532 |
Cash and equivalents at end of period |
|
15,335 |
14,329 |
32,244 |
8,532 |
1,256 |
Net (debt)/cash |
|
(19,054) |
(22,535) |
(8,909) |
8,532 |
1,256 |
Source: Oxford Biomedica accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Healthcare
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