Vishal Mega Mart delivered strong revenue and EBITDA growth of over 55% and 60% over the last two
years, respectively, supported by store expansion, double-digit same-store sales growth
and operational efficiency improvements. The business completed its IPO on the National
Stock Exchange of India and the BSE (formerly Bombay Stock Exchange) in December 2024
at an IPO price of INR78 per share, which represents a healthy 36% uplift to the last
published carrying value (as at end-October 2024) of PEY’s holding in the company.
PEY sold down around 23% of its underlying investment in the company, collecting proceeds
of €18.8m in December. 80% of PEY’s retained shares are subject to a six-month lock-up
and the other 20% is subject to a lock-up of 18 months from the IPO date.
We note that Vishal’s shares closed the first day of trading at INR111.93, representing
a 79% uplift to the end-October 2024 carrying value, which assisted PEY’s returns
in both November and December, when it posted monthly NAV TRs of 1.2% and 4.4%, respectively.
The closing share price on the first day of trading implies a very strong MOIC of
more than 7.0x since PEY’s investment in 2018. Subsequently, Vishal’s shares went
up further to INR123.69 based on the last closing price. Vishal is now PEY’s largest
holding, making up 8.5% of NAV at end-April 2025.
PEY also signed the above-mentioned disposal of SRS Distribution in March 2024 at a valuation implying a solid uplift to previous carrying value of
more than 30% (reflected in PEY’s March 2024 NAV return of 3.6%).
PG originally set up ISP in 2013 as a ‘greenfield’ investment vehicle specifically to consolidate the market
via a buy-and-build strategy, attracting an experienced leadership team composed of
former senior executives of several for-profit school chains. It has since grown to
a chain of 105 schools in 25 countries serving over 92.5k students (it recently acquired
five schools and expanded via two new greenfield schools). ISP’s valuation in 2024
was supported by its strong LTM revenue and EBITDA growth of 36% each stemming from
a combination of organic growth and M&A. As a result, it made up 4.2% of PEY’s end-April
2025 NAV.
DiversiTech grew its revenue and EBITDA in the 12 months to December 2024 by 4% and 13%, respectively,
assisted by lower raw material and freight costs, improving customer demand, productivity
gains from automation and recent M&A. PEY highlighted that the company maintained
good margins despite competitive pricing pressure.
PEY’s portfolio holding KinderCare Learning Companies, a US childhood education services provider (which made up c 2% of end-March 2025
portfolio value), was also floated last year. It completed its IPO on the NYSE in
October 2024 at a price of
US$24.00 per share. PEY did not sell any of its shares in the IPO and its holdings were subject
to a 180-day lock-up, but it made a minor €5.5m pre-IPO realisation via a dividend
recapitalisation. It recorded a 50% uplift to end-August 2024 carrying value for this
holding based on the closing price on the first trading day. However, KinderCare’s
share price de-rated subsequently by more than 50% to
US$10.08 currently, including a 22% fall on the day following the release of its Q424 results
in March 2025. PG believes that the de-rating may have been driven by lower than expected
revenue guidance for 2025, as well as recent concerns over the US administration’s
plans to eliminate the Department of Education, even though KinderCare’s subsidised
care revenues (c 35% of total revenue) come via the Department of Health and Human
Services rather than the Department of Education. KinderCare reported a modest 1.6%
y-o-y increase in revenue from early childhood education centres in Q125 (vs a 2021–24
CAGR of 14%), with a 2pp positive impact from higher tuition fees offset by slightly
lower enrolment. The company’s adjusted EBITDA went up by 12.2% y-o-y to
US$83.6m in Q125 (vs a 2021–24 CAGR of 23%). Its GAAP operating profit was
US$48.8m in Q125 versus
US$33.6m in Q124 (and an operating loss of
US$89.3m in Q424).
Management’s FY25 guidance assumes c 3–7% revenue growth and an adjusted EBITDA of
US$310–325m (vs
US$298m in FY24). The company’s FY25 will include an additional 53rd week, which management
expects to contribute
US$45–50m to revenue and
US$10–12m to adjusted EBITDA. The business de-levered via the use of IPO proceeds with net
debt to adjusted EBITDA down from 4.1x at end-2023 to 2.6x at end-March 2025 (with
management forward expectations of c 2.5–3.0x). This was coupled with a favourable
repricing of its remaining first lien debt. The company’s management emphasised the
long-term growth opportunity driven by a combination of a structural shortage of supply
in the early childhood education in the US and market fragmentation, with the top
five players making up around 5% of the market (of which KinderCare is the largest).
Long-term performance yet to catch up with public markets and peers
PEY’s NAV TR performance in the first four months of 2025 was-6.5%, affected by fx headwinds and the revaluation of listed holdings (most notably
KinderCare). This brought its 12-month return to end-April 2025 to 0.7%, which is
slightly ahead of the MSCI World Small Cap Index (0.1% in euro terms) though behind
the listed PE peer average of 4.5%. PEY’s five-year NAV TR of 8.8% pa remains below
both global small caps (10.5% pa, see Exhibit 9 and Exhibit 10) and the listed PE peer average (14.4% pa, see Exhibit 11). This may be due to several factors, one of which may be PEY’s lower exposure to
IT compared to some peers; the sector has performed particularly well since the COVID-19
pandemic. Moreover, PEY’s FY21 NAV TR of 19.4%, while solid in absolute terms, was
below the peer average, partially due to a material cash drag stemming from prior
record-high disposals (only partly mitigated by a temporary allocation to senior loans).
PEY’s 10-year NAV TR of 9.6% pa is less relevant as it covers a period during which
the company transitioned its portfolio away from fund investments to direct investments
(a process that is now complete). Over this period, PEY outperformed the MSCI World
Small Cap Index return of 6.8% pa but was behind the listed PE peer average of 12.0%
pa.