After obtaining shareholder approval and subsequent court sanctioning, SCISYS has re-domiciled in the Republic of Ireland. The change will ensure that its German-based space business can continue to work on EU-funded space programmes, such as EGNOS, Galileo and Copernicus. SCISYS decided to finalise the move in Q4 as it is too risky to wait for the final Brexit deal. We have added the expected £0.75m re-domiciliation costs into our model as an exceptional. Hence our forecast year-end net debt rises by £0.75m to £3.7m. As management’s goal of achieving £60m in sales and double-digit margins within the next few years looks increasingly conservative, we believe the stock is attractive on c 12x our FY19e EPS.
Written by
SCISYS Group |
Move protects the group’s space business |
Re-domiciliation |
Software & comp services |
28 November 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
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Analysts
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After obtaining shareholder approval and subsequent court sanctioning, SCISYS has re-domiciled in the Republic of Ireland. The change will ensure that its German-based space business can continue to work on EU-funded space programmes, such as EGNOS, Galileo and Copernicus. SCISYS decided to finalise the move in Q4 as it is too risky to wait for the final Brexit deal. We have added the expected £0.75m re-domiciliation costs into our model as an exceptional. Hence our forecast year-end net debt rises by £0.75m to £3.7m. As management’s goal of achieving £60m in sales and double-digit margins within the next few years looks increasingly conservative, we believe the stock is attractive on c 12x our FY19e EPS.
Year |
Revenue |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/16 |
45.7 |
3.0 |
9.2 |
1.96 |
16.5 |
1.3 |
12/17 |
57.2 |
3.8 |
10.0 |
2.16 |
15.1 |
1.4 |
12/18e |
56.0 |
4.4 |
12.0 |
2.38 |
12.6 |
1.6 |
12/19e |
60.1 |
5.0 |
12.7 |
2.62 |
11.9 |
1.7 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. IFRS 15 is applied from 1 January 2018.
Re-domiciliation in the Republic of Ireland
To satisfy EU rules for the space industry, not only do service providers need to operate within the EU but their parent companies also have to be based in an EU country. SCISYS is most exposed to the Galileo programme, where it generated revenues of c €6m in FY16. Although SCISYS could have re-based in any EU country, it chose the Republic of Ireland for several reasons, including the same language, similar corporate law that is based on UK law, and that Ireland is outside German tax laws, which are more difficult to work with cross-border and hence involve additional costs. The new business intends to obtain UK tax residency status and therefore will not be taking advantage of lower Irish corporate tax rates. The directors believe that maintaining UK tax status will better place SCISYS to win business from the MoD, the UK Space Agency and other UK government agencies.
SCISYS has re-domiciled via a court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement, whereby the existing SCISYS has become a fully owned subsidiary of new SCISYS (SCISYS Group PLC). The re-domiciliation only affects the group holding company and no staff or work will shift to Ireland. New SCISYS falls under the jurisdiction of the Irish takeover panel. The Irish takeover rules are very similar to the protection available under the UK takeover code. New SCISYS is retaining its AIM listing and is also listed on the Euronext Dublin Enterprise Securities Market.
Valuation: Remains attractive
Our operational assumptions remain unchanged and the stock trades on 12.6x our maintained earnings in FY18e, falling to 11.9x in FY19 and to 11.3x in FY20. Alternatively, the stock trades on 0.78x our FY19 sales and 7.0x EBITDA, which we believe is attractive if SCISYS can maintain the momentum. Our DCF model, which is based on our forecasts and organic CAGR of 3.5% over 10 years, a weighted average cost of capital of 10% and an 11.0% long-term margin target, values the stock at 184p, 21% above the current share price.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£'000s |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
2020e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
36,106 |
45,744 |
57,164 |
56,012 |
60,125 |
61,940 |
Cost of Sales |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Gross Profit |
36,106 |
45,744 |
57,164 |
56,012 |
60,125 |
61,940 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
1,548 |
3,995 |
5,619 |
6,160 |
6,689 |
6,984 |
Adjusted operating profit |
|
|
818 |
3,214 |
4,520 |
4,983 |
5,472 |
5,761 |
Amort'n of acq'd intangibles |
0 |
0 |
(1,982) |
(1,250) |
(1,200) |
(1,150) |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
(458) |
2,075 |
(750) |
0 |
0 |
||
Share based payments |
(11) |
14 |
0 |
(45) |
(50) |
(55) |
||
Operating Profit |
807 |
2,770 |
4,613 |
2,938 |
4,222 |
4,556 |
||
Net Interest |
(196) |
(185) |
(710) |
(567) |
(450) |
(400) |
||
Associates |
3 |
17 |
39 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
625 |
3,046 |
3,849 |
4,416 |
5,022 |
5,361 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
614 |
2,602 |
3,942 |
2,371 |
3,772 |
4,156 |
Tax |
(241) |
(380) |
(593) |
(874) |
(1,243) |
(1,340) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
384 |
2,666 |
3,256 |
3,542 |
3,779 |
4,021 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
373 |
2,222 |
3,349 |
1,497 |
2,529 |
2,816 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
29.0 |
29.0 |
29.2 |
29.4 |
29.7 |
30.0 |
||
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
1.3 |
9.2 |
10.0 |
12.0 |
12.7 |
13.4 |
EPS - FRS 3 (p) |
|
|
1.3 |
7.6 |
11.5 |
5.1 |
8.5 |
9.4 |
Dividend per share (p) |
1.78 |
1.96 |
2.16 |
2.38 |
2.62 |
2.88 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
4.3 |
8.7 |
9.8 |
11.0 |
11.1 |
11.3 |
||
Operating Margin (%) |
2.3 |
7.0 |
7.9 |
8.9 |
9.1 |
9.3 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
16,553 |
31,955 |
30,465 |
29,159 |
27,944 |
26,809 |
Intangible Assets |
7,831 |
22,441 |
21,086 |
19,836 |
18,636 |
17,486 |
||
Tangible Assets |
8,635 |
9,057 |
9,261 |
9,205 |
9,190 |
9,205 |
||
Deferred tax asset & associates |
87 |
457 |
118 |
118 |
118 |
118 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
17,839 |
27,895 |
33,333 |
31,862 |
34,916 |
36,067 |
Stocks |
211 |
261 |
321 |
315 |
338 |
348 |
||
Debtors |
12,299 |
19,621 |
24,541 |
24,045 |
25,810 |
26,588 |
||
Cash |
4,352 |
6,915 |
8,021 |
7,052 |
8,318 |
8,681 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(12,003) |
(18,763) |
(23,481) |
(23,393) |
(24,655) |
(24,894) |
Creditors |
(8,699) |
(14,959) |
(21,191) |
(21,353) |
(22,865) |
(23,354) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(3,304) |
(3,804) |
(2,290) |
(2,040) |
(1,790) |
(1,540) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(2,333) |
(18,374) |
(14,603) |
(11,690) |
(10,479) |
(8,268) |
Long term borrowings |
(2,007) |
(13,355) |
(11,667) |
(8,754) |
(7,543) |
(5,332) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(326) |
(5,019) |
(2,936) |
(2,936) |
(2,936) |
(2,936) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
20,056 |
22,713 |
25,714 |
25,938 |
27,726 |
29,714 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
1,570 |
3,442 |
10,369 |
6,081 |
6,388 |
6,674 |
Net Interest |
(196) |
(185) |
(710) |
(567) |
(450) |
(400) |
||
Tax |
(583) |
(1,250) |
147 |
(930) |
(1,283) |
(1,405) |
||
Capex |
(619) |
(663) |
(1,255) |
(1,120) |
(1,202) |
(1,239) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(889) |
(7,521) |
82 |
(617) |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
(14) |
15 |
(131) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(340) |
(671) |
(586) |
(652) |
(725) |
(806) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(1,071) |
(6,833) |
7,916 |
2,194 |
2,728 |
2,824 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(328) |
959 |
10,244 |
5,936 |
3,742 |
1,015 |
Other including foreign exchange |
(216) |
(2,452) |
(3,608) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
959 |
10,244 |
5,936 |
3,742 |
1,015 |
(1,809) |
|
Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research |
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Research: Consumer
An unscheduled trading upgrade confirms impressive stronger than anticipated sales growth in October and November, on the back of a robust Q3 and tough prior year comparatives. Cautiously factoring in slightly weaker Christmas trading as shoppers increasingly favour buying online, we raise our FY18e PBT by 6.4%. Our valuation increases to 1,516p.