Cereno Scientific — More runway, more opportunity

Cereno Scientific (NGM: CRNO B)

Last close As at 12/11/2026

SEK1.63

▲ −0.27 (−14.37%)

Market capitalisation

SEK528m

More on this equity

Research: Healthcare

Cereno Scientific — More runway, more opportunity

Cereno Scientific has outlined a comprehensive financing package, comprising a proposed SEK400m rights issue and restructuring of its existing SEK175m Fenja debt, marking an important step towards addressing the funding overhang on its clinical programmes. If fully subscribed, management expects the funds to extend financial headroom into Q128, beyond the planned completion of recruitment in the Phase IIb EPIMODE trial for CS1 by end-2027. Two accompanying warrant series (TO6 and TO7) could generate a further SEK400m, potentially financing EPIMODE through its Q428 readout. While we note that the discounted issue and warrants imply substantial potential dilution, we view improved financing visibility as positive, reducing near-term execution risk and potentially strengthening Cereno’s partnering position. The key consideration now will be successful subscription (expected in January 2027) and securing the subsequent capital required to progress clinical plans.

Jyoti Prakash

Written by

Jyoti Prakash, CFA

Director, healthcare

Healthcare

Funding update

13 November 2026

Price SEK1.63
Market cap SEK528m

SEK9.30/US$

Net cash/(debt) at end-September 2026

SEK(134.8)m

Shares in issue

323.9m
Free float 93.0%
Code CRNO B
Primary exchange NGM
Secondary exchange N/A
Price Performance

Business description

Cereno Scientific is a clinical-stage biotech based in Sweden, focused on the development of innovative, effective and safe treatments for indications with high unmet needs. Lead asset CS1 is an HDAC inhibitor that acts as an epigenetic modulator. The first clinical site in the Phase IIb study in PAH was activated in August 2026 with top-line data anticipated by Q428. Second asset CS014, a proprietary NCE and HDACi, is being developed for PH-ILD, and preclinical asset CS585’s lead target indication is antiphospholipid syndrome, a rare autoimmune condition.

Analysts

Jyoti Prakash, CFA
+44 (0)20 3077 5700
Arron Aatkar, PhD
+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Cereno Scientific is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Note: PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Year end Revenue (SEKm) PBT (SEKm) EPS (SEK) DPS (SEK) P/E (x) Yield (%)
12/24 0.0 (98.1) (0.35) 0.00 N/A N/A
12/25 0.0 (117.8) (0.38) 0.00 N/A N/A
12/26e 0.0 (111.4) (0.34) 0.00 N/A N/A
12/27e 0.0 (117.2) (0.36) 0.00 N/A N/A

The proposed SEK400m issue comprises units containing four new shares and three warrants (two TO6 and one TO7), with the shares priced at a 35% discount to the theoretical ex-rights price, subject to a pricing cap. Of the net proceeds, c 40% is earmarked for EPIMODE, 20% for debt repayment, 15% each for working capital and CS014, and 10% for CS585. Importantly, the financing also addresses the existing SEK175m Fenja convertible loan, with SEK105m of debt repayment extended by a year to November 2028 (albeit at a higher 3m STIBOR +9% interest rate) and the remaining SEK70m repayable through either debt-to-equity conversion or cash repayment, depending on shareholder participation. At full subscription, we expect SEK70m to be repaid in cash, leaving c SEK330m before transaction costs. An additional conditional SEK70m loan facility by Fenja provides further flexibility.

We note that the two warrant series, exercisable in mid- and late 2027, could generate up to SEK250m (TO6) and SEK150m (TO7), if fully exercised. These proceeds are intended to fund EPIMODE through top-line results in Q428 and final reporting in 2029, while supporting the broader pipeline. Although warrant proceeds are contingent on exercise and market conditions, the staggered structure provides potential funding flexibility aligned with clinical milestones. We note that the rights issue is not fully underwritten, and, in case of partial subscription, Cereno would prioritise EPIMODE, deferring expenditure on CS014 and CS585. We view this as a sensible approach to preserve the lead programme.

While the proposed financing entails potentially substantial dilution, we see the improved financial visibility as a positive offset, particularly given the importance of EPIMODE. The transaction could also alleviate the need for an early licencing agreement ahead of Phase IIb data, potentially preserving negotiating leverage. We retain our clinical and commercial assumptions, although the final subscription price and revised financing arrangements will necessitate a reassessment of our per-share valuation once definitive terms are announced in December.

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