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Medserv — Update 21 November 2016

MedservRegis (MSE: MDS)

Last close As at 05/08/2026

—

— 0.00 (0.00%)

Market capitalisation

—

More on this equity

Research: Industrials

Medserv — Update 21 November 2016

Medserv

Analyst avatar placeholder

Written by

Industrials

Medserv

A hint of Eastern promise

Q3 trading update

Industrial support services

21 November 2016

Price

€1.50

Market cap

€81m

Net debt (€m) at 30 June 2016

47.1

Shares in issue

53.7m

Free float

35.1%

Code

MDS

Primary exchange

Malta SE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(3.2)

(16.7)

(10.4)

Rel (local)

(5.6)

(19.2)

(14.2)

52-week high/low

€3.1

€1.2

Business description

Medserv is a Malta-based provider of integrated offshore logistics and services in support of drilling operations in the Mediterranean. The acquisition of the METS companies in February 2016 diversified the company into onshore steel tube stockholding and servicing for countries in the Middle East.

Next events

Preliminary results

March 2017

Analysts

Andy Chambers

+44 (0)20 3681 2525

Roger Johnston

+44 (0)20 3077 5722

Medserv is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

The Q3 trading update indicates that, despite the very challenging macro environment, Medserv is maintaining a robust overall performance aided by the initial contribution of METS. Opportunities, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean, continue to support a view of improved organic development in FY17. Our numbers are unchanged and our fair value calculation currently stands at €2.03 per share.

Year
end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/14

32.4

3.1

5.0

4.3

30.0

2.9

12/15

42.8

6.1

9.7

4.3

15.5

2.9

12/16e

38.1

2.3

4.4

1.1

34.1

0.7

12/17e

49.2

6.6

11.0

4.4

13.6

2.9

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Q3 trading performance

Medserv has stated that it expects to be close to its revised target revenue of €38m for the full year on currently contracted work, although there is an element of timing with respect to new projects that could improve this. METS continues to see the benefit of a stronger than budgeted performance in Oman, with the UAE also performing well. While Iraq has proved problematic, cost reduction has returned the operation to break-even on current volumes since October. The first evidence of revenue synergy came from the completion of a pipe testing contract at the Hal Far facility in Malta, using both technology and expertise gained from METS.

Positive potential for 2017

Despite the challenging investment environment in the global oil & gas exploration and production market, management remains confident that FY17 should see a stronger performance. Apart from the full year contribution from METS, the major logistic and support contract let in 2016 for offshore work in Libya has been secured by Medserv Operations in Malta, underpinning the next three years’ activity. Medserv could also benefit from the previously announced deferred drilling programme in Portugal by ENI, as well as increasing offshore activity in both Egypt and Cyprus. An office has been established in Trinidad to pursue opportunities in the Caribbean, and Iran remains a longer-term potential should sanctions be lifted. A plan for a return to onshore Libya is in place when more stable conditions allow.

Valuation: Poised for any upturn

We are not adjusting our estimates at this time, as incoming contract activity in Q4 will clearly determine the outcome. Opportunities for growth next year and beyond remain significant which, together with a modestly lower WACC arising from the decline in the share price, drive our fair value to €2.03/share (from €1.90/share). Assuming the company can demonstrate positive progression next year this may be a realistic expectation.

Trading update and outlook

The spending in oil and gas E&P (exploration and production) capex has slumped by over 40% since the sharp drop in the oil price initiated the fall in investment and cost reductions by IOCs now in place around the world. With evidence of a greater stability in the oil price, commentators appear increasingly of the view that the current cycle may be close to the bottom. While territories like Libya, Iran and Iraq may still be operating below historic output levels, there is an expectation that market conditions for output recovery may be improving. Combined with the significant new field discoveries and developments offshore Egypt, which in turn is spurring renewed interest in other areas of the eastern Mediterranean such as offshore Cyprus, prospects remain encouraging for increased activity next year.

Medserv operates generally in lower-cost production areas, which is especially true for METS’s oil country tubular goods (OCTG) stockholding and service activity in the Middle East. It also provides locally unique capacity, expertise and capabilities in its offshore service base offering. These factors provide an element of stability, which could improve further as additional regional opportunities present themselves. We briefly summarise below the current prospects as we see them for each of Medserv’s current or potential exposures.

Regional prospects for 2017

We highlight the following potentials for development in 2017.

■

Malta: the major logistic contract that has been let by the sole IOC operating offshore Libya has been secured. This provides a baseload of activity for the Marsaxlokk base for the coming three years.

■

Libya: while the contracts in Malta are primarily for offshore Libya, the representative office in Tripoli is being maintained. A plan for a return to the country has been developed and, should the situation permit, a return to ground-based operations appears likely. Currently we do not expect this in 2017, although it is possible.

■

Egypt: the major offshore finds over the last couple of years are receiving continued support for development from the participating IOCs. With the office in place in Cairo, Medserv has been accepted on the vendor lists of two established IOCs operating offshore, with a first tender expected to be issued later this month. Management expects Egypt to become established as a new revenue stream from next year.

■

Middle East: METS continues to grow its business in the Middle East, especially in Oman. The Iraqi situation has been returned to break-even, and we expect a progressive uplift in production volumes to be beneficial at some stage when the current impasse in discussions between IOCs and authorities with respect to the concessions has been resolved. Given the delays to date, we would hope this may occur in FY17. The Iranian situation is nascent and still highly political, but appears to be an active potential with IOCs appearing increasingly interested.

■

Portugal: the deferred drilling programme in the Atlantic offshore Portugal is currently still mothballed pending an environmental audit by the government. Management still believes drilling could commence in Q117.

■

Cyprus: the loss of the tender for Total was disappointing, but the whole situation has been confused by the legal ramifications of the recent change of ownership of the Limassol docks. Although it may be going too far to expect a recovery of that business, other opportunities remain in Cyprus with ENI. Although the Larnaca base is currently mothballed, Medserv maintains its operational readiness should drilling commence next year. The third round of drilling concessions is also likely to be let soon, which could add blocks to the currently planned programmes.

■

Caribbean: Medserv has now established an office and has been added on two additional IOC vendor lists, in addition to the current tender where a decision is expected before the end of the year. Additional tenders could therefore be expected in 2017.

Financials

We have not changed our earnings estimates following the Q3 statement, although we note that no interim dividend has been declared. In line with our comment in our half year update, given the ongoing challenging macro environment, we feel Medserv is likely to seek to protect capital and reduce the current year payout ratio temporarily from the 40% level. We therefore maintain our assumed 25% payout level for the FY16 dividend before reverting to 40% as earnings recover in 2017.

Sensitivities

Medserv’s exposure to the macro-affected oil and gas exploration and development market remains undiminished, as does its presence in certain geopolitically sensitive regions. It has long-established relationships with both the major IOCs and NOCs to which it provides services, but contract and project work can be quite lumpy with uncertain timing. ENI remains the major customer historically accounting for c 50% of revenues, but the diversification into the OCTG market via METS adds other significant customers such as Sumitomo. The acquisition of METS extended regional presence, with the established relationships and technical necessity of METS’s service offering provide an element of resilience in most circumstances.

Valuation

Our capped DCF currently returns a value of €2.03 per share (from €1.90) using a WACC of 7.7% (from 7.9%) and terminal growth rate of zero. The WACC has reduced slightly due to the higher proportion of debt funding resulting from the decline in the equity value. The sensitivity of this value to differing assumptions for the WACC and terminal growth rate is shown below, with the closest value to our calculated assumption highlighted.

Exhibit 1: Capped DCF sensitivity analysis to WACC and terminal growth rate (€/share)

2.0

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

15%

0%

2.89

2.33

1.92

1.60

1.34

1.13

0.56

1%

3.49

2.75

2.22

1.82

1.51

1.26

0.63

2%

4.40

3.33

2.62

2.11

1.73

1.43

0.70

3%

5.91

4.20

3.18

2.49

2.00

1.64

0.78

Source: Edison Investment Research estimates


Exhibit 2: Financial summary

€m

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

32.4

42.8

38.1

49.2

Cost of Sales

(23.2)

(27.2)

(25.3)

(31.4)

Gross Profit

9.2

15.5

12.8

17.8

EBITDA

 

 

5.9

10.3

8.5

14.3

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

4.2

7.6

4.9

9.4

Intangible Amortisation

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

(0.0)

(0.1)

(0.9)

(1.7)

Other

(0.1)

(0.2)

0.0

0.0

Operating Profit

4.1

7.3

4.0

7.7

Net Interest

(1.1)

(1.5)

(2.6)

(2.8)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

3.1

6.1

2.3

6.6

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

3.0

5.8

1.4

4.9

Tax

(0.9)

(1.3)

0.1

(0.5)

Profit After Tax (norm)

2.3

4.8

2.4

6.0

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

2.2

4.5

1.5

4.4

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

46.1

46.1

52.9

53.7

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

5.0

9.7

4.4

11.0

EPS - normalised and fully diluted (c)

 

 

5.0

9.7

4.4

11.0

EPS - (IFRS) (c)

 

 

4.2

8.9

2.7

8.1

Dividend per share (c)

4.3

4.3

1.1

4.4

Gross Margin (%)

28.4

36.3

33.5

36.2

EBITDA Margin (%)

18.1

24.0

22.4

29.1

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

13.0

17.8

12.9

19.2

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

23.3

24.0

49.5

46.4

Intangible Assets

0.0

0.0

16.6

14.9

Tangible Assets

23.3

24.0

32.9

31.4

Investments

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Assets

 

 

57.5

57.1

65.9

72.7

Stocks

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.3

Debtors

13.4

12.2

14.5

18.7

Cash

1.1

1.0

9.4

11.4

Other

43.0

43.9

41.7

42.3

Current Liabilities

 

 

(15.3)

(13.3)

(5.7)

(7.3)

Creditors

(10.4)

(9.5)

(5.7)

(7.3)

Short term borrowings

(4.9)

(3.8)

0.0

0.0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(56.1)

(56.7)

(85.3)

(85.3)

Long term borrowings

(21.1)

(22.4)

(51.2)

(52.0)

Other long term liabilities

(35.0)

(34.3)

(34.0)

(33.2)

Net Assets

 

 

9.5

11.1

24.4

26.5

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(1.7)

10.4

7.5

8.7

Net Interest

(1.1)

(1.5)

(2.6)

(2.8)

Tax

(0.9)

(1.3)

0.1

(0.7)

Capex

(13.4)

(3.8)

(0.5)

(3.4)

Acquisitions/disposals

0.0

(2.6)

(31.6)

0.0

Financing

(0.2)

0.5

12.4

0.0

Dividends

(0.7)

(2.0)

(1.9)

(0.6)

Net Cash Flow

(18.0)

(0.3)

(16.6)

1.2

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

6.9

24.9

25.2

41.8

HP finance leases initiated

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.0

(0.0)

0.0

(0.0)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

24.9

25.2

41.8

40.6

Source: Edison Investment Research

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Medserv and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Medserv and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

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