PVA TePla — Lower FY25 guidance but high order intake

PVA TePla (FRA: TPE)

Last close As at 28/10/2025

EUR28.00

−0.14 (−0.50%)

Market capitalisation

EUR609m

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Research: Industrials

PVA TePla — Lower FY25 guidance but high order intake

On 24 October, PVA TePla (PVA) reported that project-related delays in the US and Asia, which had already led to lower FY25 sales and EBITDA guidance in Q2, persisted and worsened in Q3. Therefore, Q325 results were lower than guided and management has revised FY25e sales to €235–255m (was €260–280m) and FY25e EBITDA to €25–30m (was €34–39m). However, order intake trends are beginning to look good, with a preliminary order intake of €72.8m in Q325 (Q2: €57.5m; Q1: €46.1m). This provides much more support for FY26 estimates. We have lowered our FY25 estimates in line with the new guidance and have reduced our FY26 estimates. On our new estimates, PVA trades at an FY26e P/E ratio of 26.3x, which we believe is not particularly demanding for a stock with high exposure to the increasingly important metrology and inspection segment in the semiconductor value chain.

Written by

Dan Ridsdale

Head of Technology

Technology

Preliminary Q3 results

29 October 2025

Price €28.18
Market cap €637m

Net cash/(debt) at 30 June 2025

€(22.0)m

Shares in issue

21.7m
Free float 86.0%
Code TPE
Primary exchange FRA
Secondary exchange N/A
Price Performance
% 1m 3m 12m
Abs 9.0 34.2 138.6
52-week high/low €31.0 €10.7

Business description

PVA TePla is a German equipment supplier, mostly for the semiconductor industry but also for the industrial market. Within the sector it is a technology leader in the synthesis (including crystal growing), joining and refining of materials, especially steel. Metrology (acoustic/chemical/ optical), especially for the semiconductor sector, is gaining importance and this is a clear growth market.

Next events

Final Q3 results

12 November

Analysts

Dan Ridsdale
+44 (0)20 3077 5700
Edwin De Jong
+44 (0)20 3077 5700

PVA TePla is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Note: EPS and EBITDA are reported numbers.

Year end Revenue (€m) EBITDA (€m) EPS (€) DPS (€) EV/EBITDA (x) Yield (%)
12/23 263.4 41.5 1.12 0.00 15.9 N/A
12/24 270.1 47.8 1.25 0.00 13.8 N/A
12/25e 243.7 27.2 0.61 0.00 24.2 N/A
12/26e 303.6 43.0 1.08 0.00 15.3 N/A

Fabrication facility delays led to lower revenues

After its H125 results, where PVA guided to the lower end of the guided range for sales and EBITDA due to project-related setbacks, the company has now reported that the effects of these delays have intensified in the last quarter. This has led to a revision of its sales (-9.2%) and EBITDA (-25.6%) midpoint guidance for FY25. The postponements have been driven by project delays in the US and Asia. This is something that has also affected other high-end back-end equipment companies, like BE Semiconductor Industries (Besi). Several planned new advanced packaging fabrication facilities face delays, meaning clients cannot accept ordered tools yet. Furthermore, there have been project delays in the industrial segment due to uncertainty around the tariff situation in the US.

Advanced packaging in short supply

It is clear that the production capacity of current advanced packaging facilities is way too low to meet future demand. For the next generation of AI fabrication facilities, advanced packaging is playing an increasingly crucial role, driven by the need to process data quickly and for higher energy efficiency. This trend is an important driver for PVA’s increasing orders. The company is directly involved with new back-end technologies, like scanning acoustic microscopy, which is its primary growth driver, as PVA explained at its capital markets day, with an expected CAGR of 18–22% to 2028.

Valuation: Not demanding at €31.63 per share

PVA is trading at a prospective P/E of 26.3x on our updated FY26 estimates and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 15.3x. This is not particularly demanding for PVA, which has a five-year historical average P/E of 32.2x and EV/EBITDA of 16.9x. Our DCF valuation model points to a fair value of €31.63, compared to €34.88 in our last note.

Preliminary Q3 results and lower guidance

PVA reported preliminary Q325 revenues of €55.8m on 24 October. This compares to €63.0m in Q324 and €60.8m in Q225. Preliminary EBITDA stands at €3.8m, compared to €10.5m in Q3 last year. These results make it clear that previous FY25 guidance cannot be met (€260–280m revenues and €34–39m EBITDA). PVA’s new FY25 guidance amounts to €235–255m of revenues and €25–30m EBITDA, or -9.2% and -25.6% at the midpoint of guidance. PVA will report final Q3 results on 12 November.

Back-end facilities delays causing a bottleneck

Advanced packaging capacity for complex chips is increasingly becoming a bottleneck in the supply chain of semiconductors, especially for the planned massive AI fabrication facilities such as Elon Musk’s Colossus and Open AI’s Stargate projects. These projects are the reason why there are many plans to build new assembly and packaging facilities and also why there are increasing order intakes at equipment companies (both Besi and PVA have reported relatively high Q3 orders and are positive on the expected Q4 order intake).

However, at the same time, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC’s) planned back-end fabrication facilities face delays, as does Amkor Technology in the US. We anticipate that Intel has also faced setbacks in its goal of quadrupling its advanced packaging capacity by 2025 (announced in 2023). This has led to delays in revenue trends at advanced back-end equipment makers. Besi’s postponed hybrid bonding orders in Q3 were also caused by construction and manufacturing issues. As such, we see PVA’s lower-than-expected sales and EBITDA this year as transitionary. Assuming that the qualification processes (still ongoing) of PVA’s metrology equipment for the newest packaging facilities continue to be satisfactory, we believe that there is upside to our estimates.

More positive environment for silicon crystal pulling

We believe that the market environment for the crystal-growing business (silicon and silicon carbide in particular) has not changed materially this year and that the lower expected sales are not related to this part of the business. The prospects for Siltronic, an important client and wafer producer, have improved, which is visible in its increasing share price. This development was driven by the earlier-mentioned AI investments that need high amounts of memory chips and, therefore, the wafers that Siltronic produces. This reinforces the expectation that, from H226, orders for silicon crystal pulling equipment could return as there could be shortages of wafer capacity, given the trend in AI.

Lower estimates for FY25 and a slight decrease for FY26

After the small decrease to our estimates made after PVA’s H125 results, we have now adjusted our figures for FY25e more rigorously to be more in line with management’s guidance. This has resulted in 23% lower EBITDA and 29% lower EPS estimates for FY25. For FY26, we have decreased our estimates more moderately, driven by the strong order intake in Q3 (see Exhibit 1) and generally better order momentum that we see at other back-end equipment companies like Besi.

After PVA’s capital markets day last September, the company outlined its revenue distribution with 36% for metrology, 33% other semiconductor and 30% industrial. PVA also provided a further justification of its midterm revenue target (€500m by 2028) and added margin targets (gross margin of 38–43% and 20–25% EBITDA). High-margin acoustic measurement systems, especially those used in cutting-edge semiconductors, are the most important growth driver in the Metrology division, with an expected CAGR of 18–22% to 2028. The information provided at the capital markets day has reaffirmed our confidence in our estimates.

Valuation: Still undemanding

PVA is trading at a reported P/E of 26.3x on our updated FY26 estimates and an EV/EBITDA of 15.3x. Our discounted cash flow (DCF) model points to a fair value of €31.63, compared to €34.88 in our last report. Companies like US-listed Onto Innovation, Camtek and KLA (much bigger), which are also active in metrology and inspection, trade at an average EV/EBITDA for FY26e of >20x. And also on historical multiples, PVA’s valuation is not demanding. The five-year historical average P/E amounts to 32.2x and EV/EBITDA to 16.9x.

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